2019-2020 Lineup

[LGR4GM]

Wouldn't 9mil a year be about the going rate for a 30 goal scorer? Seems about where the league is at. 

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Except Jack is the scorer we need him to be without Jeff on his line.  Again this is why we need to put a better playmaker with Skinner to maximize his value.  I suggest Reinhart, but I’m ok with us getting a Center for him.

I agree. That line is just a piece short and it is impacting everything. 

[Drunkard]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

Except Jack is the scorer we need him to be without Jeff on his line.  Again this is why we need to put a better playmaker with Skinner to maximize his value.  I suggest Reinhart, but I’m ok with us getting a Center for him.

Gonna be hard to find the money to pay a new top 6 center after Reinhart and Olofsson get fat raises from riding Eichel's coat tails all season. There's not going to be nearly as much cap space to play with as most people seem to think.

[dudacek]

Just now, Drunkard said:

Gonna be hard to find the money to pay a new top 6 center after Reinhart and Olofsson get fat raises from riding Eichel's coat tails all season. There's not going to be nearly as much cap space to play with as most people seem to think.

What did Eichel have to do with Olofsson perfectly playing carom of the backboards and roofing it Danny Briere style? Or with the 90-foot cross-ice pass Reinhart made to Montour to get that goal started?

Is your argument that they aren’t good players even though they are producing like good players and we need to keep them away from Jack because we won’t be able to afford real good players when they magically appear? That’s one of the most self-sabotaging arguments I’ve ever heard. 

You reward people for success and you will attract other good people in the process.

[Drunkard]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

What did Eichel have to do with Olofsson perfectly playing carom of the backboards and roofing it Danny Briere style? Or with the 90-foot cross-ice pass Reinhart made to Montour to get that goal started?

Is your argument that they aren’t good players even though they are producing like good players and we need to keep them away from Jack because we won’t be able to afford real good players when they magically appear? That’s one of the most self-sabotaging arguments I’ve ever heard. 

You reward people for success and you will attract other good people in the process.

I'm not arguing Reinhart and Olofsson aren't good players in their own right. I like them both and I think they are both good players. I'm arguing that (just like Skinner) their production is getting inflated by playing with Eichel the majority of the time and because of that, they'll both be more expensive than they would have been otherwise.

They are both pacing near 70 points (Oloffson is actually pacing for just over 70 points at the moment). Do you think they would be scoring at that rate playing on line 2 with Johansson for most of the season? Do you think their production is going to have an impact on their next contracts?

Oloffson and Reinhart would still both be good players without Eichel. My concern is that playing with Eichel might be giving them say something like a 15 or 20% boost in production than they would otherwise have playing on a different line and we may end up paying them more than we would have had to and if they end up playing on a different line after they ink their new deals they'll end up overpaid.

[dudacek]

Yeah but somebody has to play with Eichel, and I would argue that they are part of the reason Jack is able to do what he has been doing.

Im sure Sidney Crosby felt Chris Kunitz earned every penny, and the Pens brass probably agreed as they slipped on those cup rings.

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

I'm not arguing Reinhart and Olofsson aren't good players in their own right. I like them both and I think they are both good players. I'm arguing that (just like Skinner) their production is getting inflated by playing with Eichel the majority of the time and because of that, they'll both be more expensive than they would have been otherwise.

They are both pacing near 70 points (Oloffson is actually pacing for just over 70 points at the moment). Do you think they would be scoring at that rate playing on line 2 with Johansson for most of the season? Do you think their production is going to have an impact on their next contracts?

Oloffson and Reinhart would still both be good players without Eichel. My concern is that playing with Eichel might be giving them say something like a 15 or 20% boost in production than they would otherwise have playing on a different line and we may end up paying them more than we would have had to and if they end up playing on a different line after they ink their new deals they'll end up overpaid.

Wouldn't they just continue to play with Eichel meaning those contracts would just look good anyways? 

[nfreeman]

49 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

I get it. I wouldn't try to sabotage the team in order to save cap space, it just puzzles me that they backed up the Brinks truck to pay Skinner like a 40 goal scorer and now they are overpaying him and he's not even on pace to score 30 goals at this point. I realize there was a coaching change but it's pretty obvious that Skinner is not a $9 million player when he's not playing with Eichel. Unfortunately that's how much we're paying him this year and for the next 7 years after that. Thanks to his full NMC he's not going anywhere. 

No, you put the guy you're already paying $9 million per year with Eichel because that's the only spot where he produces enough to earn his oversized contract.

Well, I agree that Skinner is overpaid if you look at it in a vacuum, but I think at the time they extended Skinner, their FA desirability was so low that they would've had to overpay any FA. 

More importantly, although I agree that Skinner's #s would be better if he were on Jack's line, IMHO Skinner is still a major force with lesser linemates and is largely worth his contract.  He is relentless -- always buzzing around the net and creating scoring chances.  He plays a tough game, he's a great skater and is surprisingly good on the backcheck.  I think he'll be a good playoff player too.

[nfreeman]

35 minutes ago, dudacek said:

What did Eichel have to do with Olofsson perfectly playing carom of the backboards and roofing it Danny Briere style? Or with the 90-foot cross-ice pass Reinhart made to Montour to get that goal started?

Is your argument that they aren’t good players even though they are producing like good players and we need to keep them away from Jack because we won’t be able to afford real good players when they magically appear? That’s one of the most self-sabotaging arguments I’ve ever heard. 

You reward people for success and you will attract other good people in the process.

That pass was a beautiful hockey play.

[Drunkard]

14 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Wouldn't they just continue to play with Eichel meaning those contracts would just look good anyways? 

I would hope so, but Skinner looked great playing with Eichel last season as well and for whatever reason, Kreuger decided they shouldn't play together. Maybe next year Ralph decides to put somebody like Cozens or Mittelstadt on Eichel's wing and they flourish. Suddenly the Reinhart and/or Olofsson extensions don't look so great similar to Skinner now. It's not a guarantee of anything just something that I see as a potential concern.  

[Drunkard]

28 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Well, I agree that Skinner is overpaid if you look at it in a vacuum, but I think at the time they extended Skinner, their FA desirability was so low that they would've had to overpay any FA. 

More importantly, although I agree that Skinner's #s would be better if he were on Jack's line, IMHO Skinner is still a major force with lesser linemates and is largely worth his contract.  He is relentless -- always buzzing around the net and creating scoring chances.  He plays a tough game, he's a great skater and is surprisingly good on the backcheck.  I think he'll be a good playoff player too.

I think Skinner had Botterill over a barrel and Botterill stupidly overpaid him on money, term, and a full NMC. Based on Skinner only wanting to be traded to Buffalo or Toronto we should have been able to get him to come off of at the very least 1 of those demands (8 years, $9 million season, full NMC) and possibly more. We held his rights at the deadline so automatically nobody else would have even been able to give him 8 years so giving a 26 year old an 8 year contract for that kind of money and a full NMC was dumber than dumb.

The idea that he was gonna walk if we only offered him say $8 million in order for him to play someplace further away like Florida, Arizona, Vancouver, or Chicago (just examples) because they offered him $9 million for 7 years is so unlikely that Botterill should have used it to his advantage. Botching the O'Reilly trade and gutting our scoring depth left him completely unable to use any leverage he had though because Skinner, Eichel, and Reinhart were our only scoring depth at that point. If he had left Skinner walk the fans would have started sharpening their pitchforks and Skinner knew it so he got everything he wanted and Botterill got taken to the wood shed by Skinner's agent.

Edited December 13, 2019 by Drunkard

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Wouldn't 9mil a year be about the going rate for a 30 goal scorer? Seems about where the league is at. 

I agree. That line is just a piece short and it is impacting everything. 

Well, since Johansson came back, Skinner has had Rodrigues or Mittelstadt primarily as his C and his opposite winger has quite often been Sheary (with Larsson as C for a couple of those games) or Mittelstadt.

That isn't leaving him "just a piece short.". The man has been left on a proverbial island.  And, though he isn't finishing much, that status of forcing other team's to have at least SOMETHING challenging to face on all 4 lines MIGHT be part of what's getting them wins even with a PP that has managed to avoid detection though at least 2 search parties have been sent out looking for it.

And FTR, IMHO, he should be reunited with Johansson and they should trade for a RW or C to play with those 2.  But until the team starts losing (which could be as near as the next Hutton start), my expectation is that our own little ball of hate stays on his island.

[nfreeman]

25 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

I think Skinner had Botterill over a barrel and Botterill stupidly overpaid him on money, term, and a full NMC. Based on Skinner only wanting to be traded to Buffalo or Toronto we should have been able to get him to come off of at the very least 1 of those demands (8 years, $9 million season, full NMC) and possibly more. We held his rights at the deadline so automatically nobody else would have even been able to give him 8 years so giving a 26 year old an 8 year contract for that kind of money and a full NMC was dumber than dumb.

The idea that he was gonna walk if we only offered him say $8 million in order for him to play someplace further away like Florida, Arizona, Vancouver, or Chicago (just examples) because they offered him $9 million for 7 years is so unlikely that Botterill should have used it to his advantage. Botching the O'Reilly trade and gutting our scoring depth left him completely unable to use any leverage he had though because Skinner, Eichel, and Reinhart were our only scoring depth at that point. If he had left Skinner walk the fans would have started sharpening their pitchforks and Skinner knew it so he got everything he wanted and Botterill got taken to the wood shed by Skinner's agent.

The bolded is the assumption that underlies this entire argument, and it doesn't hold water IMHO.  Skinner was the 2nd-best FA last year.  The #1 was Panarin, also a high-scoring LW.  Panarin, who is 1.5 years older than Skinner, got $11.6MM x 7 years and a full NMC from the Rangers.  That's 29% more per year than Skinner.

Panarin's last 4 years pre-contract:  30 goals, 31 goals, 27 goals, 28 goals (total goals:  116; total assists:  204)

Skinner's last 4 years pre-contract:  28 goals, 37 goals, 24 goals, 40 goals (total goals:  129; total assists:  97).

Panarin is better than Skinner, but is he 29% better? 

I don't think Skinner got more than market value.  And the Sabres certainly didn't have to pay a "terrible franchise" premium.

You're suggesting that JB should've relied on Skinner wanting to be close to home and dared him to go farther away.  That's easy to say from behind a computer, but it would've been a stupid risk to take IMHO -- and for what?  To save how much, exactly?  If JB refused to go above, say, $7.5MM, I think Skinner would've told him to jump in a lake, and then the Sabres would've been screwed.

 

[Drunkard]

13 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

The bolded is the assumption that underlies this entire argument, and it doesn't hold water IMHO.  Skinner was the 2nd-best FA last year.  The #1 was Panarin, also a high-scoring LW.  Panarin, who is 1.5 years older than Skinner, got $11.6MM x 7 years and a full NMC from the Rangers.  That's 29% more per year than Skinner.

Panarin's last 4 years pre-contract:  30 goals, 31 goals, 27 goals, 28 goals (total goals:  116; total assists:  204)

Skinner's last 4 years pre-contract:  28 goals, 37 goals, 24 goals, 40 goals (total goals:  129; total assists:  97).

Panarin is better than Skinner, but is he 29% better? 

I don't think Skinner got more than market value.  And the Sabres certainly didn't have to pay a "terrible franchise" premium.

You're suggesting that JB should've relied on Skinner wanting to be close to home and dared him to go farther away.  That's easy to say from behind a computer, but it would've been a stupid risk to take IMHO -- and for what?  To save how much, exactly?  If JB refused to go above, say, $7.5MM, I think Skinner would've told him to jump in a lake, and then the Sabres would've been screwed.

 

Yeah, there's no way to know for sure, but that's how I see it. He took less money from Carolina when he got his full NMC in his previous contract and it paid off in the end by giving him complete control to the point where he basically drew a circle on a map that only included Toronto and Buffalo (as NHL cities) on it and said these are the only places I'm willing to go. 

I'll admit the fact that my hatred of Botterill probably pushes me towards not giving him the benefit of the doubt in any way, shape, or form though.

Edited December 13, 2019 by Drunkard

[nfreeman]

2 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

Yeah, there's no way to know for sure, but that's how I see it. He took less money from Carolina when he got his full NMC in his previous contract and it paid off in the end by giving him complete control to the point where he basically drew a circle on a map that only included Toronto and Buffalo (as NHL cities) on it and said these are the only places I'm willing to go. 

I'll admit the fact that I hate Botterill probably pushes me towards not giving him the benefit of the doubt in any way, shape, or form though.

It's certainly fair to say that JB hasn't yet earned the benefit of the doubt.  He's whiffed on a number of moves, large and small.  But if they make the playoffs this year, JB will deserve credit for:

- RK -- this is the big one, as it was a pretty risky and outside-the-box hire and is probably the most important factor in the hypothetical turnaround

- Ullmark & Olofsson -- JB didn't draft them, but he should get credit for their development

- Skinner

- Johansson

- major overhaul of D group -- Joker, Montour, Miller, plus not panicking and trading Risto for a crappy return

- smaller moves like signing Vesey and re-signing Larsson

We'll see.

[Curt]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Scary thing is Buffalo could have had Boeser and could have signed Miller. Obviously that is a huge what if.  Thanks for the info, didn't know they were doing so well. 

Miller wasn’t a FA.  Vancouver traded a 1st round pick + for him.

[Taro T]

23 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

The bolded is the assumption that underlies this entire argument, and it doesn't hold water IMHO.  Skinner was the 2nd-best FA last year.  The #1 was Panarin, also a high-scoring LW.  Panarin, who is 1.5 years older than Skinner, got $11.6MM x 7 years and a full NMC from the Rangers.  That's 29% more per year than Skinner.

Panarin's last 4 years pre-contract:  30 goals, 31 goals, 27 goals, 28 goals (total goals:  116; total assists:  204)

Skinner's last 4 years pre-contract:  28 goals, 37 goals, 24 goals, 40 goals (total goals:  129; total assists:  97).

Panarin is better than Skinner, but is he 29% better? 

I don't think Skinner got more than market value.  And the Sabres certainly didn't have to pay a "terrible franchise" premium.

You're suggesting that JB should've relied on Skinner wanting to be close to home and dared him to go farther away.  That's easy to say from behind a computer, but it would've been a stupid risk to take IMHO -- and for what?  To save how much, exactly?  If JB refused to go above, say, $7.5MM, I think Skinner would've told him to jump in a lake, and then the Sabres would've been screwed.

 

And, in the best case scenario from the Sabres perspective, they'd've gotten him for $8x8 with no NMC/NTC after year 4.  So, they end up "Losing" up to $1MM of  cap each year and (more painfully) the ability to lose him on the back end if he isn't living up to the deal.

Neither says the Sabres were hosed.  And he brought something they really needed -  a KNOWN goal scorer not named Eichel.  And his abilities have been a big part IMHO of allowing Olofsson to grow into the role he has so quickly.  Remember early in the season late in games and often in shifts right before tv timeouts, Skinner was slid onto Eichel's line taking pressure off Victor when he might not have been ready for it.

[sabresparaavida]

Only the Capitals have more points than us in the last 10 games in our conference.

[dudacek]

From what we've seen this year, I'm starting to see a forward set I can get behind next year.

Olofsson Eichel Reinhart

Skinner ??? (Johansson) ???

Vesey ??? (Johansson) ???

Girgensons Larsson Okposo

With ??? being a big-ticket acquisition, a veteran bottom-six UFA, plus the winners of a competition between Thompson, Asplund, Mittelstadt and Cozens

Edited December 17, 2019 by dudacek

[tom webster]

I still think the plan is to play Reinhart with Skinner and find another winger for Eichel and VO.

 

JBOT was pretty adamant that Sam could drive a line without playing center so either he and coach disagree or that is the long term plan.

[dudacek]

I think Ralph wanted a first line that was defensively adept enough that he could comfortably deploy it against the other elite lines and win.

I think Reinhart and Eichel expressed a strong preference for playing together during summer conversations.

I think Skinner has a history of creating offence on his own and of being less-than-stellar defensively.

Add those three elements together, sprinkle in the outstanding success of the Eichel line since launch, and we get what we've seen.

Edited December 17, 2019 by dudacek

[Scottysabres]

14 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I still think the plan is to play Reinhart with Skinner and find another winger for Eichel and VO.

 

JBOT was pretty adamant that Sam could drive a line without playing center so either he and coach disagree or that is the long term plan.

 

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

I think Ralph wanted a first line that was defensively adept enough that he could comfortably deploy it against the other elite lines and win.

I think Reinhart and Eichel expressed a strong preference for playing together during summer conversations.

I think Skinner has a history of creating offence on his own and of being less-than-stellar defensively.

Add those three elements together, sprinkle in the outstanding success of the Eichel line since launch, and we get what we've seen.

Sounds reasonable. Couple of questions on the views expressed.

Who is going to center a Skinner / Reinhart line?

Would they be looking for a right handed shot RW for VO and Eichel.

 

[Taro T]

8 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I still think the plan is to play Reinhart with Skinner and find another winger for Eichel and VO.

 

JBOT was pretty adamant that Sam could drive a line without playing center so either he and coach disagree or that is the long term plan.

And could really see Cozens playing on a wing on Eichel's line while he's fairly new to the NHL (either rookie year if his size allows him to handle the competition Eichel faces day in day out; or more likely 2nd year).

Do expect the hope is he ends up the 2C LT, but while getting to that point expect he could be really special playing with Eichel. 

With no additional F help that would leave Skinner - Johansson - Reinhart as the 2nd line.  With somebody better at C than Marcus brought in, slot him there and then the 3rd line gets Johansson and a much more ready Mittelstadt along with Thompson, Asplund, Vesey, or other guy that costs ~what it took to land Vesey.

Depending on Okposo's status, either the Larsson line stays intact or Asplund, Pekar, Lazar, or a Lazarish player rounds that line out.

Not to beat the dead horse, but finding 1 guy besides Cozens that can play well, rather than serviceably, at 2C really makes this team hard to play against if the goaltending is at least as good as what Ullmark has been providing in December.  There are so many pieces that could be used to make that happen, it will remain frustrating if (when? grrrr) that trade doesn't happen.

[LGR4GM]

Is Ruustolainen back playing? We should bring him over to the team. 

[Weave]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

Is Ruustolainen back playing? We should bring him over to the team. 

We should have signed him today to throw hands with Kassian.

[LGR4GM]

Any other Euro players we might bring in?