Dahlin is a Calder Finalist

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, Taro T said:

32 is enough that he won't be a rookie again next year.  Kid deserves it.  Doubt he beats out Petterson but would be very surprised should he not  beat out Dahlin.  (Though I expect Dahlin to have the best career of the 3.)

It doesn't matter, but I could see Dahlin scraping second on the strength of Binnington being absent entirely from some ballots. I'm sure Binnngton came in first on a fair few though and that got him this far, and he could even win. 

[LTS]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

This isn't true. 

The Blues are a good hockey team with many significant, valuable parts, regardless of how much Binnington was a catalyst of their turn around. They were expected to be good from the get go and got off to a terrible start. They are a very good team, with many contributing to their success after Binnington did indeed provide that spark. 

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To me this is one of those years where it's a rock-paper-scissors type deal regarding the Calder finalists. A solid, compelling argument can reasonably be made for all 3 to win the award outright, regardless of who will actually win. 

With it being a forward, defenseman, and goalie, each provides a different yet compelling argument. The nomination itself means a lot in a such a deep class. 

The Blues did two things. They fired Mike Yeo and they brought in Binnington.  Binnington proceeded to lead the league in GAA at 1.89 and was 4th in SV% at .927.

His record was 24-5-0-1.

They were expected to be a good team who wasn't.  If Binnington doesn't play like he does, they don't sniff the playoffs.  He provided the spark and the fuel that powered them to the playoffs.  I'm not sure why the credit would go anywhere but to him.

For all the talent in the world, they were sitting 30th in the league when Binnington came in.

[Thorner]

4 hours ago, LTS said:

The Blues did two things. They fired Mike Yeo and they brought in Binnington.  Binnington proceeded to lead the league in GAA at 1.89 and was 4th in SV% at .927.

His record was 24-5-0-1.

They were expected to be a good team who wasn't.  If Binnington doesn't play like he does, they don't sniff the playoffs.  He provided the spark and the fuel that powered them to the playoffs.  I'm not sure why the credit would go anywhere but to him.

For all the talent in the world, they were sitting 30th in the league when Binnington came in.

He was the spark. But that's the point. The rest of the team came along just fine after he got there, too. They have a guy nominated for the Selke (should have given that to Binnington, too, I guess, since credit should only apparently go to him). There are other good players on that team that played well down the stretch, too. To say he's almost the sole reason they had success isn't fair. The catalyst for their turn around? Sure. A huge PART of their success, potentially even, arguably, their MVP? Also sure. 

He didn't join a bad team that continued to be bad after he got there that he proceeded to carry to the playoffs. He got there and the whole team turned around and played well (the ones that weren't already) as they should have from the beginning. It's team alchemy.

That they were having a bad season before he got there doesn't equal to him being the sole reason they found success as a team AFTER he got there. The Oilers are terrible with McDavid. If they bring in a new coach and a great goalie this off season who plays at a Vezina (haha) rate and they make the playoffs (also haha-probably) next season, do the coach and goalie get all the credit, and does McDavid not factor into why that team finds success?

Edited April 29, 2019 by Thorny

[dudacek]

McDavid was over a point a game in a half-season and was a finalist

[Thorner]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

McDavid was over a point a game in a half-season and was a finalist

A great argument for why Binnington should and probably did get nominated. 

It seems as though getting over half the games is the arbitrary mark voters often use for nominations. I'm not sure off the top of my head how often those players actually win the awards, though. McDavid of course lost, and even in the 2013 season where Crosby was running away with the Art Ross before he broke his jaw, he played 75% of the season and while nominated, didn't win either. So it'll probably be Pettersson. 

I'm sure Lemieux won a bunch though where he missed a lot. 

Edited April 29, 2019 by Thorny

[Wyldnwoody44]

Anyone playing for the crap team that is the Sabres, and gets a nomination, basically it counts as a win. 

Can you imagine what Dahlin may have accomplished on a team that wasn't so inept. 

[matter2003]

On 4/27/2019 at 4:12 PM, steveoath said:

Don't agree with Bennington being the at all.

Really? Why not?  Dude played in 32 games, started 30 and went 24-5-1 with a 1.89 GAA and .927 save percentage along with 5 Shutouts. Those are pretty stellar numbers.

[Weave]

Marty Brodeur won the Calder in 93-94 with a 27-11-8 2.40 9.15 record.

Tom Barrasso won the Calder in 83-84 going 26-12-3 2.85 .893.

24-5-0-1 and 1.89 .927 is a little light on games historically, but the record and stats are gaudy by Calder standards.

[matter2003]

2 hours ago, Weave said:

Marty Brodeur won the Calder in 93-94 with a 27-11-8 2.40 9.15 record.

Tom Barrasso won the Calder in 83-84 going 26-12-3 2.85 .893.

24-5-0-1 and 1.89 .927 is a little light on games historically, but the record and stats are gaudy by Calder standards.

Goalies were in general much worse at stopping the puck prior to 2000, can't really compare stats like that because its meaningless.

Edited April 29, 2019 by matter2003

[steveoath]

6 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Really? Why not?  Dude played in 32 games, started 30 and went 24-5-1 with a 1.89 GAA and .927 save percentage along with 5 Shutouts. Those are pretty stellar numbers.

@Thorny above has hit the nail on the head for me. 

But this is what keeps us interested isn't it. No debates = no fun.

[Weave]

6 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Goalies were in general much worse at stopping the puck prior to 2000, can't really compare stats like that because its meaningless.

Ok, where is he relative to his competition today?  He’s put up great numbers.

[That Aud Smell]

Not sure if it's been addressed upthread, but, modern trends notwithstanding, the NHL is fairly littered with goalies who came on like an absolute house of fire in the first ~80 games or so of their careers, only to fade into Bolivia thereafter (once opponents got them figured out). It will be interesting to see whether the Blues goalie will prove to have been little more than a flash in the pan, or whether he'll manage to evolve and grow (and thereby combat the efforts to "figure him out").

[IKnowPhysics]

Nice article by Joe Yerdon detailing how what Dahlin accomplished this year as an 18 year old defensemen hasn't been done in a very long time:

https://theathletic.com/958439/2019/05/02/how-rasmus-dahlins-rookie-season-compares-to-defensemen-who-were-previous-calder-finalists/?source=dailyemail

 

One of the things he cites is Sean Tierney's charts of primary assists rates vs shots rates, which shows how Dahlin is already in elite company in the NHL (he was 3rd among defensemen, behind Karlsson and Burns, in primary assists per 60):

Edited May 3, 2019 by IKnowPhysics

[Thorner]

It gets thrown around far too often for far too many players, but I think one of the best things I can say about Dahlin is:

He's as advertised. Actually. 

[inkman]

17 hours ago, Thorny said:

It gets thrown around far too often for far too many players, but I think one of the best things I can say about Dahlin is:

He's as advertised. Actually. 

They didn't exactly advertise he'd be throwing out a handful of WTF plays a game but I guess we we're supposed to anticipate that. 

[Doohicksie]

35 minutes ago, inkman said:

They didn't exactly advertise he'd be throwing out a handful of WTF plays a game but I guess we we're supposed to anticipate that. 

Miro Heiskanen totally looked ready for playoff hockey and was alternating between 1st and 2nd pairing.  It seemed like by the end of the series he and Klingberg were the top pair.  Dahlin's game this year was nowhere near that level, especially with his defensive gaffs.  Maybe in his Age 19 year we'll be able to say the same about Dahlin, but he's not there yet.

[Thorner]

4 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Miro Heiskanen totally looked ready for playoff hockey and was alternating between 1st and 2nd pairing.  It seemed like by the end of the series he and Klingberg were the top pair.  Dahlin's game this year was nowhere near that level, especially with his defensive gaffs.  Maybe in his Age 19 year we'll be able to say the same about Dahlin, but he's not there yet.

He's better than Heiskanen, right now. It's why he got the Calder nomination over him. 

If you look at the underlying numbers, it's actually not even that close.

Heiskanen also got routinely walked all playoffs, in spite of his many great plays, whether you were watching for it or not. You are sitting at "maybe" Dahlin will be as good NEXT year, when he's already better. 

Edited May 8, 2019 by Thorny

[Doohicksie]

Eh, it's not the way I saw it.  Maybe I just want too much out of Dahlin.  But I was watching Heiskanen playing at a level of intensity and physicality I've not yet seen out of Dahlin.  Watching the Stars playoff games, I just couldn't imagine Dahlin keeping up with the physical rigors.

Edited May 8, 2019 by Doohickie

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Eh, it's not the way I saw it.  Maybe I just want too much out of Dahlin.  But I was watching Heiskanen playing at a level of intensity and physicality I've not yet seen out of Dahlin.

The level of intensity ups across the board in the playoffs, we haven't had a chance to see Dahlin adjust to that level, unfortunately. 

There's PLENTY of writing and break-down out there of just how good Dahlin was DEFENSIVELY this season, but the offensive chasm between the two shouldn't be missed. Dahlin still has 7 more points this season than Heiskanen, after Miro played 13 playoff games. 

Edited May 8, 2019 by Thorny

[Doohicksie]

Yeah.  Don't get me wrong, I'm not getting down on Dahlin.  I want him to be successful.  Maybe a year from now he'll be able to play with that same intensity.  This year though, I could excuse his getting used to the larger ice surface, to the physicality and speed of the NHL, etc., but I just have an issue with the number of mental gaffs.  I like to think that was part of the learning curve, but they didn't seem to improve over the season.

[Thorner]

I don't want to trash Heiskanen because he's a very good young d-man, so I just went back to his minus-3 game from the pivotal game 6 in round 2. 

https://www.nhl.com/video/blais-breakaway-tally/t-306627648/c-68108403

Not his best pinch.  He was out of position on all 3 goals he was on for. There are clips of Tarasenko and others turning him inside out but one can seek them out if they want. 

But it's a complete myth that Heiskanen was some sort of defensive stalwart. He wasn't, not close. 

Edited May 8, 2019 by Thorny

[dudacek]

I think Heiskanen has a more mature game than Dahlin but that doesn’t mean better. Rasmus makes more glaring errors, but he also makes more elite plays.

I don’t think Heiskanen is more ready or willing physically, but I do think Rasmus wore down toward the end of the season, physically and mentally. That’s why he’s not at the world championships. He needs a break.

Reinhart, Montour and Eichel on the other hand are at the World championships because they need the feel of playing more than 82, and they need the experience of playing for something meaningful in May.

Underrated development decisions by Botterill, IMO.

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think Heiskanen has a more mature game than Dahlin but that doesn’t mean better. Rasmus makes more glaring errors, but he also makes more elite plays.

I don’t think Heiskanen is more ready or willing physically, but I do think Rasmus wore down toward the end of the season, physically and mentally. That’s why he’s not at the world championships. He needs a break.

Reinhart, Montour and Eichel on the other hand are at the World championships because they need the feel of playing more than 82, and they need the experience of playing for something meaningful in May.

Underrated development decisions by Botterill, IMO.

It's base level management competence, innit? I'd expect a capable GM to make those calls every time.

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Reinhart is also at the world championships because 82 games year after year is barely a sweat for Sam. He's in the business of extending his iron man streak ?