2019 NHL Draft

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Curtisp5286 said:

I guess you really never know.  It will depend on how Sabres (and other teams) feel about him after interviews and all their background work.

Are there examples of truly high end players, top-10 draft picks who have decided to just stay in Russia?  I think it’s very uncommon.  I might have do some digging on this.

RESULTS: So, it was a little worse than I thought.  I the past 20 drafts, 10 players out of Russia have been selected in top 10.  Nichuskin and Kravtsov are the two most recent and are too young to draw any definite conclusions on.  Of the other 8, 3 were basically busts in both the NHL and KHL (Svitov, Christov, Filatov).  Of the remaining 5 who turned out to be pretty good, Zherdev and Kostityn left for the KHL at age 26, Kovalchuk left for the KHL at 29, Ovechkin and Malkin have remained in the NHL thus far with no signs of leaving.

It’s actually not a great outlook for these highly drafted players out of Russia.  It looks like unless they turn into one of the top 25 players in the league, they are going to jump back to Russia.

Obviously, there are players drafted later who have come to and stayed in the NHL, but I wanted to look specifically at high end Russian prospects who did not come to play in North America prior to being drafted.

[Brawndo]

 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If he turns into Nelson we’ll be lucky 

Maybe I’m misreading your post, but that sounds pretty dismissive.

He’s a long shot, but he’s smart, competitive and can skate. He plays the game the way it is trending and his career compares favourably to guys like Will Butcher.

If Botterill is capable of delivering on his promises, we’re going to need a few guys like this and Laaksonen and Fitzgerald to emerge into something more Brian Campbell than Brycen Martin or even Nelson.

Im happy he’s signed and they continue to add to the competition in Rochester.

[GASabresIUFAN]

27 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Maybe I’m misreading your post, but that sounds pretty dismissive.

He’s a long shot, but he’s smart, competitive and can skate. He plays the game the way it is trending and his career compares favourably to guys like Will Butcher.

If Botterill is capable of delivering on his promises, we’re going to need a few guys like this and Laaksonen and Fitzgerald to emerge into something more Brian Campbell than Brycen Martin or even Nelson.

Im happy he’s signed and they continue to add to the competition in Rochester.

He isn’t close to what Will Butcher accomplished.

Comparing him to Nelson isn’t dismissive.  It’s a reasonable comparison of his potential.  It means he has the chance to become a depth NHL defensman. 

If he surpasses that great, but let’s not expect to much. 

 

[shrader]

27 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He isn’t close to what Will Butcher accomplished.

Comparing him to Nelson isn’t dismissive.  It’s a reasonable comparison of his potential.  It means he has the chance to become a depth NHL defensman. 

If he surpasses that great, but let’s not expect to much. 

 

To be fair, Butcher stayed for four years of college. Take a look at his first three years compared to Bryson’s 3. You’ll be surprised. 

[#freejame]

11 minutes ago, shrader said:

To be fair, Butcher stayed for four years of college. Take a look at his first three years compared to Bryson’s 3. You’ll be surprised. 

Yeah but Butcher won the Hobey Baker. Is Bryson in that conversation next season if he stayed?

[Huckleberry]

2 minutes ago, #freejame said:

Yeah but Butcher won the Hobey Baker. Is Bryson in that conversation next season if he stayed?

Won't know, because unlike butcher he stayed with the team that drafted him.

[Zamboni]

Would it be cool if he develops into a solid NHL #6/#7? Yes or no?

Would it be cool if he develops even more? Yes or no?

The rest of any kind or tit for tat debate is obnoxious. Even if he never develops into an NHL career and stays as a very good AHLer, which is unlikely unless he plateaus big time, he will be a solid main stay on the back end that will allow other, more talented kids, to leap frog him to the NHL.

Its a good signing. Leave it at that. Good grief.

[GASabresIUFAN]

33 minutes ago, #freejame said:

Yeah but Butcher won the Hobey Baker. Is Bryson in that conversation next season if he stayed?

No.

30 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Won't know, because unlike butcher he stayed with the team that drafted him.

Butcher wanted to stay in his hometown of Denver but Colorado told him they wouldn't sign and then changed their mind. By that time Butcher was ready to move on.  This wasn't Petersen or Vesey saying he wouldn't sign with who drafted him. The Avs screwed the pouch.

45 minutes ago, shrader said:

To be fair, Butcher stayed for four years of college. Take a look at his first three years compared to Bryson’s 3. You’ll be surprised. 

Bryson has more assist, but 21 to 11 goals in Butcher's favor after 3 years. 

[shrader]

36 minutes ago, #freejame said:

Yeah but Butcher won the Hobey Baker. Is Bryson in that conversation next season if he stayed?

Who knows. But we do have to remember that the Hobey will vary from year to year depending on the field of players each year. One year there could be a stud in the field, the next could be more of a level playing field.

The award also has a character aspect that the voters do value significantly. The non-center Gerbe more than likely would have won it without a one game suspension he had for repeated butt ending penalties. I’d suspect that with Bryson serving as a captain as a junior, he’s high on that character list. 

They also are a sucker for guys who pass on signing and return for their senior year. 

Edited April 16, 2019 by shrader

[SDS]

Good luck kid!

[klos1963]

16 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Something about no one wanting to sign with the Sabres. 

 

He's certainly a big name signing. 

Edited April 16, 2019 by klos1963

[PerreaultForever]

9 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Has been compared to Tory Krug 

 

cause of his size? or does he have the skill and determination to go with it?

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

cause of his size? or does he have the skill and determination to go with it?

All of the above 

 

3 hours ago, klos1963 said:

He's certainly a big name signing. 

If you say so 

[LGR4GM]

Interesting how you start to draft better and start finding guys like Olofsson and Bryson. Will they make it? Maybe not but at least there is a conversation. 

[LGR4GM]

14 hours ago, Curtisp5286 said:

RESULTS: So, it was a little worse than I thought.  I the past 20 drafts, 10 players out of Russia have been selected in top 10.  Nichuskin and Kravtsov are the two most recent and are too young to draw any definite conclusions on.  Of the other 8, 3 were basically busts in both the NHL and KHL (Svitov, Christov, Filatov).  Of the remaining 5 who turned out to be pretty good, Zherdev and Kostityn left for the KHL at age 26, Kovalchuk left for the KHL at 29, Ovechkin and Malkin have remained in the NHL thus far with no signs of leaving.

It’s actually not a great outlook for these highly drafted players out of Russia.  It looks like unless they turn into one of the top 25 players in the league, they are going to jump back to Russia.

Obviously, there are players drafted later who have come to and stayed in the NHL, but I wanted to look specifically at high end Russian prospects who did not come to play in North America prior to being drafted.

And Pod is signed for 2 more years in the KHL. Just something to think about. You can't miss this pick at #7. 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

And Pod is signed for 2 more years in the KHL. Just something to think about. You can't miss this pick at #7. 

I’m just trying to think how I would feel if we drafted Pod, he came over after 3 years at 21, established himself as a 25-25-50 good top-6 winger, then he left for the KHL at 25/26.

I would not be pleased, to put it lightly.

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, Curtisp5286 said:

I’m just trying to think how I would feel if we drafted Pod, he came over after 3 years at 21, established himself as a 25-25-50 good top-6 winger, then he left for the KHL at 25/26.

I would not be pleased, to put it lightly.

Which truly successful Russian left early in his career?  Malkin, Ovie, Kuznetsov, Kucherov, Tarasenko even Kovalchuk stayed through most of his prime (and has since returned).  Guys like Radulov and Dadonov left and came back. Panarin came over after developing in Russia. Anisimov, Namestnikov aren’t stars but have stayed.

I think the Russian factor is over blown.  If we draft Pod and he succeeds he is staying.  

[OhMyDahlin]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Interesting how you start to draft better and start finding guys like Olofsson and Bryson. Will they make it? Maybe not but at least there is a conversation. 

They were drafted by two different GMs.

[OhMyDahlin]

15 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He isn’t close to what Will Butcher accomplished.

Butcher also played with Henrik Borgstrom, Troy Terry, Danton Heinen, Dylan Gambrell, Trevor Moore, and a much more talented team than Bryson.

Edited April 16, 2019 by OhMyDahlin

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, OhMyDahlin said:

They were drafted by two different GMs.

Ik, but that wasn't the point. We started drafting better in 2014. I think we have improved since. 

[OhMyDahlin]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Ik, but that wasn't the point. We started drafting better in 2014. I think we have improved since. 

Thought you meant with Botterill, my bad.

But 2014 is debatable with Cornel, Karabacek and Martin. Lol. (That wasn't exactly a great draft though.)

[Curt]

45 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Which truly successful Russian left early in his career?  Malkin, Ovie, Kuznetsov, Kucherov, Tarasenko even Kovalchuk stayed through most of his prime (and has since returned).  Guys like Radulov and Dadonov left and came back. Panarin came over after developing in Russia. Anisimov, Namestnikov aren’t stars but have stayed.

I think the Russian factor is over blown.  If we draft Pod and he succeeds he is staying.  

The actual simple answer to your question, from the player group I was looking at, is Zherdev and Kostityn.

I was looking only at players who: 1) Did not come to North America prior to their draft and 2) were highly regarded enough talents to justify a top-10 pick.

So these are players who specifically did not go out of their way to come over at a young age and were considered super talented.  So my thought process is that if they do not make it big (perennial All Star) in the NHL, they have incentive to go back to the KHL because they can actually make more money there.

I'm not drawing any definite conclusions here, and if Podkolzin was on the board at #7 I may take him anyway, but it is something to consider.  I'm not going to push this any farther, because people can sometimes get very touchy when talking about such things.

Edited April 16, 2019 by Curtisp5286

[LGR4GM]

We started drafting better in 2014, Murray's first draft. His 2nd and 3rd drafts were much better than anything proceeding it for years. Botterill has continued that. While I don't agree with all his drafting decisions, he seems to be finding possible players outside of round 1 and that is good to see. Looking back 2013 should have been better, 2012 was okay, 2011 was bad, 2010 was bad, 2009 was mediocre, 2008 was decent, 2007 was awful. You can really see how video scouting was not doing us any favors. 

2014: Sam, Lemiuex, Olofsson

2015: Eichel, Guhle, Borgen

2016: Asplund, Fitzgerlad, Pu, Nylander, and there is a chance 1 of the other guys plays some NHL games

2017: Mitts, Davidson, 6k, Bryson, Laaksonen

2018: Dahlin, Samuelsson, Pekar

Now all of these players won't make it. However considering that in the previous years we were looking at a hit and miss system where some years we had a couple guys and some years we had just Pysyk, I think we have improved. If these guys are not properly developed, it will be all for nothing though. 

[LGR4GM]

Thomas Harley and John Beecher are players to think about with pick 26, if available.