2019 NHL Draft

[North Buffalo]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

One of the big issues with this roster is that we aren’t very physical up front.  I agree we need more skill and more speed, but as you watch St Louis and Boston, you need skilled players that can also take the body.  We don’t have these players.  Guys like Dach, Cozens and Boldy bring the skill and the physical games.  Pod, if he’d come over, also plays that game.  

If the long-term vision is a spine of Eichel, Mitts and Asplund, then we need to fill out the wings besides Jeff and Sam.  

Dach is suspect and Zegras is more physical imo despite size difference.  Agree on other two, but physical is as much about attitude as anything else.

[Thorner]

6 hours ago, Brawndo said:

 

Sabres media is pushing the same 4 kids so much you know one is going to be the pick. 

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

Pronman has a great piece in the Athletic where he merges this crop with the previous four drafts to produce an overall ranking. The list reflects his take on the player AT THE TIME OF HIS DRAFT.

McDavid

Laine

Matthews

Hughes

Eichel

Dahlin

Mittelstadt and Nylander didn’t make the top 31. Also of interest to us for this year: Turcotte 13, Byram 17, Caufield 20, Zegras 28, Cozens 30.

I didn't think a player would ever approach Toews for most overrated, but Laine is putting up a STRONG argument. 

[Trettioåtta]

10 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Sabres media is pushing the same 4 kids so much you know one is going to be the pick. 

I didn't think a player would ever approach Toews for most overrated, but Laine is putting up a STRONG argument. 

Who are the other three pushed by the Sabres PR?

[Thorner]

2 minutes ago, Trettioåtta said:

Who are the other three pushed by the Sabres PR?

Most of their Twitter has centered around Caufield, Zegras, Boldy and Turcotte. 

The piece Duff did on draft interviews had those 4 exclusively (along with Hughes)

Edited June 11, 2019 by Thorny

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, Derrico said:

Dahlin is ranked too low here imo.

Perhaps.

But Laine & Hughes are too high.  Could see the argument for flipping Dahlin & Eichel; but vividly recalling the McEichel hype wouldn't make that switch and could flip Matthews & Eichel as well.  And though Eichel, Matthews, & Dahlin were all very highly touted with Dahlin being considered a "McDavid of D" IMHO would either bump Eichel a smidge above Matthews or leave those 3 all where they are relative to each other.

No way was Laine vewed ahead of Matthews in his draft & Hughes being up there displays a serious recency bias & hype of the next new thing.  (& Kakko might go ahead of him too; doubt it but wouldn't bet against it.)

[dudacek]

Just wanted to emphasize that list reflects how Pronman ranked each player in his draft year, not how he would rank them now. Yes, he did rank Laine over Matthews.

Edited June 11, 2019 by dudacek

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Perhaps.

But Laine & Hughes are too high.  Could see the argument for flipping Dahlin & Eichel; but vividly recalling the McEichel hype wouldn't make that switch and could flip Matthews & Eichel as well.  And though Eichel, Matthews, & Dahlin were all very highly touted with Dahlin being considered a "McDavid of D" IMHO would either bump Eichel a smidge above Matthews or leave those 3 all where they are relative to each other.

No way was Laine vewed ahead of Matthews in his draft & Hughes being up there displays a serious recency bias & hype of the next new thing.  (& Kakko might go ahead of him too; doubt it but wouldn't bet against it.)

Laine should definitely be below all the others dudacek listed

Edited June 11, 2019 by Thorny

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Just wanted to emphasize that list reflects how Pronman ranked each player in his draft year, not how he would rank them now. Yes, he did rank Laine over Matthews.

Well, with that being the case, can see how he walked away with that ranking.  Good to see him standing by his evals, but that one just exudes being a contrarian for contrarianisms sake.  (And that's not the vibe he normally gives off, IMHO.)

[Thorner]

Just now, Taro T said:

Well, with that being the case, can see how he walked away with that ranking.  Good to see him standing by his evals, but that one just exudes being a contrarian for contrarianisms sake.  (And that's not the vibe he normally gives off, IMHO.)

Almost as bad as Kournianos ranking Svechnikov above Dahlin.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Folks this list from Pronman is not how he'd list them today, but how he graded them during their draft year.

For example:  

Lets say he gave McDavid a 99, Laine a 98, Matthew a 97, Jack a 96 and Dahlin a 95 in their draft years.  His list reflects those scores, even if McDavid is now 110, Laine a 90, Matthews a 92, Jack a 95 and Dahlin a 98.  Get it? 

All he is trying to do is give us a score comparison between this year's crop and those in recent drafts.  What is telling us is that this year's draft is very deep in high end talent.

Edited June 11, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorner]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Folks this list from Pronman is not how he'd list them today, but how he graded them during their draft year.

For example:  

Lets say he gave McDavid a 99, Laine a 98, Matthew a 97, Jack a 96 and Dahlin a 95 in their draft years.  His list reflects those scores, even if McDavid is now 110, Laine a 90, Matthews a 92, Jack a 95 and Dahlin a 98.  Get it? 

All he is trying to do is give us a score comparison between this year's crop and those in recent drafts.  What is telling us is that this year's draft is very deep in high end talent.

And I'm saying his rankings are bad through the prism of the time periods in question. 

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Folks this list from Pronman is not how he'd list them today, but how he graded them during their draft year.

For example:  

Lets say he gave McDavid a 99, Laine a 98, Matthew a 97, Jack a 96 and Dahlin a 95 in their draft years.  His list reflects those scores, even if McDavid is now 110, Laine a 90, Matthews a 92, Jack a 95 and Dahlin a 98.  Get it? 

All he is trying to do is give us a score comparison between this year's crop and those in recent drafts.  What is telling us is that this year's draft is very deep in high end talent.

Yes, dudacek's clarification made that clear.

[Taro T]

 

And this draft isn't necessarily deepin high end talent, but Pronman believes that to be the case.

[North Buffalo]

24 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

And this draft isn't necessarily deepin high end talent, but Pronman believes that to be the case.

True not generational, but lots of projected top six talent at forward 10-12 deep more than most years and a fair amount of guys later that could be there too.

[LGR4GM]

6 hours ago, Taro T said:

Perhaps.

But Laine & Hughes are too high.  Could see the argument for flipping Dahlin & Eichel; but vividly recalling the McEichel hype wouldn't make that switch and could flip Matthews & Eichel as well.  And though Eichel, Matthews, & Dahlin were all very highly touted with Dahlin being considered a "McDavid of D" IMHO would either bump Eichel a smidge above Matthews or leave those 3 all where they are relative to each other.

No way was Laine vewed ahead of Matthews in his draft & Hughes being up there displays a serious recency bias & hype of the next new thing.  (& Kakko might go ahead of him too; doubt it but wouldn't bet against it.)

Pronman is garbage at rating defenders. That's why Dahlin is so absurdly low and Heiskanen isn't on his list. Heiskanen should be above Byram. I get he's going off his original idea of these players but Dahlin there is laughable. Kid is generational. 

[shrader]

16 hours ago, Thorny said:

And I'm saying his rankings are bad through the prism of the time periods in question. 

I've never seen anything that lists Hughes as high as where the Pronman list had him.  Granted, I don't have a subscription so I haven't read any of it.

 

11 hours ago, Let's Go B-Lo said:

Krebs with a partially torn Achilles tendon after a mishap with another player's skate. They say he's expected to recover fully but you have to imagine that sort of injury spooks teams a little, no? I know it would spook me if I had him and another player rated very closely. If nothing else it throws a monkey wrench into his short term development because there will be a big chunk of missed time as he rehabs that.

 

I'm calling my shot right now.  Ottawa drafts him and Melnyk immediately announces that he's going to start a forensic analysis of said skate incident.  Meanwhile, Matt Cooke continues to roam free.

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, shrader said:

I've never seen anything that lists Hughes as high as where the Pronman list had him.  Granted, I don't have a subscription so I haven't read any of it.

 

 

I'm calling my shot right now.  Ottawa drafts him and Melnyk immediately announces that he's going to start a forensic analysis of said skate incident.  Meanwhile, Matt Cooke continues to roam free.

Pronman lists Hughes 4th, ahead of Eichel at 5th and Dahlin at 6th. He has McDavid, Laine, Matthews as his 1-3. 

He is bad at ranking defenders and placing them in context with forwards. 

[shrader]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Pronman lists Hughes 4th, ahead of Eichel at 5th and Dahlin at 6th. He has McDavid, Laine, Matthews as his 1-3. 

He is bad at ranking defenders and placing them in context with forwards. 

Dudacek posted that entire order.?
I just mean that I didn't read it so I don't know if he goes on to justify any of it.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, shrader said:

Dudacek posted that entire order.?
I just mean that I didn't read it so I don't know if he goes on to justify any of it.

No he doesn't justify it.

Quote

Hughes had a dominant season, looking like he was toying with opponents at times at the junior level and setting many records at the USNTDP. I think he’s going to be an elite NHL player and a player the team that drafts him (New Jersey) can build around. - Pronman https://theathletic.com/1018189/2019/06/11/pronman-top-31-prospects-of-the-past-five-years-2019-edition/

And he says this about Dahlin:

Quote

Rasmus Dahlin, 2018 draft (first overall, Buffalo): Dahlin was one of the best defense prospects to come along in the past few decades, right up there with Drew Doughty, Aaron Ekblad and Victor Hedman – if not above all three. In his first NHL seasonn, Dahlin was remarkably good for a U19 defenseman. He’s tracking to become a star defenseman in the league as projected. - Pronman

I am sorry but "right up there with" is just false. Dahlin was considered by everyone to be on a tier above those 3 listed defenders. You don't drop the 2nd most points by an 18yr old defender in NHL history by being "remarkably good". You do it by being great. 

Ekblad peaked at 39pts which he did as a rookie.

Hedman didn't top 44 points until he was 23 and got 55 points. 

Doughty topped 44 points as a 20yr old in year 2 of his career, he then didn't do it again for 5 years. 

Now granted Dahlin could see regression but I didn't see regression in his game from October to April, I saw progression. Now he gets 6 months to mature and train. I would not be shocked to see him add 5-10lbs of muscle this summer. When Pronman uses the players he does as comparables and then tries to qualify it with "if not above"... Dahlin is above, period. Dahlin should be standing on that tier just below McDavid right now and at the time of his draft. 

Edited June 12, 2019 by LGR4GM

[WildCard]

Can't believe this shindig is only one week and some change away

[LGR4GM]

Out of the top 55 prospects according to elite prospects,

Trevor Zegras: 23rd in goals per game (GPG) and 9th in points per game (PPG)

Dylan Cozens: 17th in gpg, and 13th in ppg

Alex Newhook: 6th in gpg, and 2nd in ppg

Cole Caufield: 1st in gpg, and 7th in ppg

Alex Turcotte: 5th in gpg, and 3rd in ppg

Kirby Dach: 25th in gpg, and 14th in ppg

Matthew Boldy: 15th in gpg, and 12th in ppg

This was sorted only by the prospects listed at Elite on their draft page and does not account for league. It only accounts for games played. I can post the actual number if anyone is interested but I think it is interesting to see where they stack up in this draft. 

[WildCard]

51 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Out of the top 55 prospects according to elite prospects,

Trevor Zegras: 23rd in goals per game (GPG) and 9th in points per game (PPG)

Dylan Cozens: 17th in gpg, and 13th in ppg

Alex Newhook: 6th in gpg, and 2nd in ppg

Cole Caufield: 1st in gpg, and 7th in ppg

Alex Turcotte: 5th in gpg, and 3rd in ppg

Kirby Dach: 25th in gpg, and 14th in ppg

Matthew Boldy: 15th in gpg, and 12th in ppg

This was sorted only by the prospects listed at Elite on their draft page and does not account for league. It only accounts for games played. I can post the actual number if anyone is interested but I think it is interesting to see where they stack up in this draft. 

What about their translated NHL point totals?

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, WildCard said:

What about their translated NHL point totals?

do you have the conversion numbers? Since they are already in excel I can sort by league and that would be easiest to run the math. 

[WildCard]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

do you have the conversion numbers? Since they are already in excel I can sort by league and that would be easiest to run the math. 

I think @IKnowPhysics has them

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, WildCard said:

I think @IKnowPhysics has them

I'd need... BCHL, Liiga, MHL, OHL, QMJHL, SHL, SuperElit, USDP, USHL, and WHL to do all 55 players.