2019 NHL Draft

[Derrico]

2 hours ago, Drunkard said:

I wonder if Botterill even has Cozens or Dach on his board given his apparent disdain for drafting CHL players. I wonder how far down he would reach for a USNTDP or European league guy if the draft went this way be before his turn:

Hughes

Kakko

Turcotte

Caufield

Zegras

Boldy 

Would he sprint to the podium to pick up Byram, Cozens, Krebs, or Dach? Would he gamble on the Russian factor and take Podkolzin? Would he take a lower ranked guy anyway from the leagues he likes anyway?

I imagine it's a moot point because I'm pretty sure Byram is gone before we pick and it's possible that Podkolzin is gone too, but I wonder how strong his preference to avoid CHL guys really goes.

 

There's no proof Botts has the bolded as any major evaluation factor in the first round.  No Dahlin and Mitts didn't play in the CHL but I bet if they did it would have been the same pick.  Dahlin would be the pick if he played on the moon.  In the 2018 draft Mitts was one of 2 or 3 obvious selections based on the 'experts.'

Later round picks, it does make sense to lean slightly in favor of NCAA as you do have basically an extra year of evaluation.  These time periods really matter for guys taken outside the first round.  There's also the ability to sign them earlier to the AHL.  If we're discuss picking number 7 overall I would be shocked if Botts cared at all about playing in the CHL.  Whoever is selected at 7 will be more of a sure thing and the extra year at the end should not matter either way.  In fact I'm really hoping he takes a CHL player at 7 so this narrative can go away (not directing this at you).

For picks starting even at 30/31 then yes, CHL will probably knock guys down a peg or two.

[Derrico]

37 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

People seem to forget Jbot is Canadian.   

Not only is he Canadian but he friggen works with HOCKEY CANADA. 

[Drunkard]

6 minutes ago, Derrico said:

There's no proof Botts has the bolded as any major evaluation factor in the first round.  No Dahlin and Mitts didn't play in the CHL but I bet if they did it would have been the same pick.  Dahlin would be the pick if he played on the moon.  In the 2018 draft Mitts was one of 2 or 3 obvious selections based on the 'experts.'

Later round picks, it does make sense to lean slightly in favor of NCAA as you do have basically an extra year of evaluation.  These time periods really matter for guys taken outside the first round.  There's also the ability to sign them earlier to the AHL.  If we're discuss picking number 7 overall I would be shocked if Botts cared at all about playing in the CHL.  Whoever is selected at 7 will be more of a sure thing and the extra year at the end should not matter either way.  In fact I'm really hoping he takes a CHL player at 7 so this narrative can go away (not directing this at you).

For picks starting even at 30/31 then yes, CHL will probably knock guys down a peg or two.

I never claimed to have proof, it's just speculation. It seems peculiar to me that he hasn't drafted a single CHL player in 2 drafts when probably half the league comes from the CHL. Until he does draft a CHL player (I don't care what round), I'll continue to wonder if coming from the CHL makes players lose points in his evaluation/BPA ranking metrics and how much weight it carries.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

THAT MOOSEHEAD KID!!

?

[Derrico]

9 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

I never claimed to have proof, it's just speculation. It seems peculiar to me that he hasn't drafted a single CHL player in 2 drafts when probably half the league comes from the CHL. Until he does draft a CHL player (I don't care what round), I'll continue to wonder if coming from the CHL makes players lose points in his evaluation/BPA ranking metrics and how much weight it carries.

This is fair.  Again, my comments were not directed just at you as this seems to be a narrative.  I'm just saying that the strategy has some merit with non top 10 picks but I'll be shocked if it's even a factor at all when picking who you think will be the best player at 7OA.

As mentioned, Botts himself is Canadian and he's had extensive work with Hockey Canada.  It's just been a coincidence our last two first rounders played outside of the CHL.

Edited June 7, 2019 by Derrico

[Drunkard]

1 minute ago, Derrico said:

This is fair.  Again, my comments were not directed just at you as this seems to be a narrative.  I'm just saying that the strategy has some merit with non top 10 picks but I'll be shocked if it's even a factor at all when picking who you think will be the best player at 7OA.

I hope so, that's why I speculated about the potential run on US and Euros from picks 1-6 on the previous page. If a guy like Byram just happened to be there at 7 and he passed on him in favor of say Boldy or Caufield I'd be concerned but as I already stated Byram will most likely be gone before pick 7 anyway. If he picks Boldy or Caufiled over someone like Cozens it's entirely possible that it's not implicit bias, it's just how he has them ranked.

[Derrico]

12 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

I hope so, that's why I speculated about the potential run on US and Euros from picks 1-6 on the previous page. If a guy like Byram just happened to be there at 7 and he passed on him in favor of say Boldy or Caufield I'd be concerned but as I already stated Byram will most likely be gone before pick 7 anyway. If he picks Boldy or Caufiled over someone like Cozens it's entirely possible that it's not implicit bias, it's just how he has them ranked.

Ya I think this draft will make it difficult to judge this theory as well.  There are several, very viable non-CHL players who would be a good pick at 7.  You're right, for this draft about the only way we know is if a guy like Byram is sitting there at 7 and Botts passes (which is unlikely to happen). 

Again, oustside the first round I don't mind Botts approach.  The AHL/CHL agreement limits the control you have on the prospect.  Considering after say pick 50 it's a complete crapshoot anyways then I have no problem slanting away from the CHL unless you are taking a clearly inferior player (which I don't think is happening).  Pick 7, I really can't see this playing much of a roll as you're expecting whoever it is to make the Sabres by year D2 or D3.  Nylander is the exception, not the rule when it comes to top 10 picks.  You have to assume he will be playing in the NHL by the start of D3 or something has gone wrong.

Edited June 7, 2019 by Derrico

[LGR4GM]

15 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

I hope so, that's why I speculated about the potential run on US and Euros from picks 1-6 on the previous page. If a guy like Byram just happened to be there at 7 and he passed on him in favor of say Boldy or Caufield I'd be concerned but as I already stated Byram will most likely be gone before pick 7 anyway. If he picks Boldy or Caufiled over someone like Cozens it's entirely possible that it's not implicit bias, it's just how he has them ranked.

He won't. That isn't a thing that will happen. One because Byram won't be there and Two because Botterill would just draft him if he were. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

I find it a little funny that people are still hammering on the lack of CHL players despite Jbot’s stated reasons for not focusing on them in the later rounds and the fact he seems to have done a very good job at finding legit prospects over his two drafts.  Dahlin and Mitts were no brainer picks (Mitts was a consensus top 6 player who fell to us at 8).  UPL, Pekar, Laaksonen, Samuelsson and Davidsson all look to have NHL futures.  Also late rd picks Bryson and Weissbach look to have possible NHL futures.  Considering our failures in the 2nd and 3rd rounds under the previous regimes, it feels pretty good to have good prospects from these rounds.  UPL and Laaksonen are two of the most improved prospects in the NHL.

 

[freester]

What would it cost to move up from 31 to  14 approximately.  I could see Podkolzin falling to 14 due to the Russian factor.  Our 2nd round pick and what else?

[French Collection]

21 minutes ago, freester said:

What would it cost to move up from 31 to  14 approximately.  I could see Podkolzin falling to 14 due to the Russian factor.  Our 2nd round pick and what else?

Sabres don't have a second rounder

[GASabresIUFAN]

35 minutes ago, freester said:

What would it cost to move up from 31 to  14 approximately.  I could see Podkolzin falling to 14 due to the Russian factor.  Our 2nd round pick and what else?

 

12 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Sabres don't have a second rounder

It would probably cost our 1st next year

[Brawndo]

 

[TrueBlueGED]

^^If there's a guy I can say I want at 7 above the field, it's Cozens. But if it's not him, I won't do more than shrug my shoulders. 

[LGR4GM]

Newhook is top 10. He's steadily underrated. 

[dudacek]

31 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

^^If there's a guy I can say I want at 7 above the field, it's Cozens. But if it's not him, I won't do more than shrug my shoulders. 

I like him as locomotive carrying the puck through the neutral zone in a top six wing role, or as the best 3c in the league since prime Jordan Staal. Size/speed combo is impressive. And he’s got good hands and head too.

The beauty of this draft is it easy picture anyone ranked in our vicinity in an impact role.

[Brawndo]

 

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

He's gonna slide a bit now 

[Hoss]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

He's gonna slide a bit now 

Fingers crossed he slides hard and we can steal him at 30/31. That’d be an absolute robbery. I don’t like him at 7 (even before the injury).

[LGR4GM]

20 hours ago, Hoss said:

Fingers crossed he slides hard and we can steal him at 30/31. That’d be an absolute robbery. I don’t like him at 7 (even before the injury).

That might be asking too much. But hey, you never know. 

[LGR4GM]

I've made up my mind, of the players likely to be available at 7, I want Dylan Cozens.

[North Buffalo]

Cozens to me is Matthew Tkachuk with more puck skills and a bit less bite but plenty of it.  I like his speed, question is if Sabres go center doubt it would be him.... again if avail.. betting Dach or Zegras and id want Zegras, still i between those two and Cozens really tough choice and BPA probably Cozens

[Sabre1974]

Turcotte for me but we have no chance unless we do a deal with Blackhawks for there pick. Happy though with any of Cozens, Dach, boldy or Zegras

[#freejame]

@LGR4GM @jame

Let me preface this by saying this is one of the stupidest things I’ve asked, but are there any players in the draft who seem to have as much fun out there as Marner? Just saw his Matthews commercial and on top of all the other stuff I’ve seen, read, and know about him it seems like he enjoys the game and spreads his joy for the game more than damn near anyone else in hockey. I’d love a guy with that sort of positive charisma on the Sabres. 

[LGR4GM]

12 hours ago, #freejame said:

@LGR4GM @jame

Let me preface this by saying this is one of the stupidest things I’ve asked, but are there any players in the draft who seem to have as much fun out there as Marner? Just saw his Matthews commercial and on top of all the other stuff I’ve seen, read, and know about him it seems like he enjoys the game and spreads his joy for the game more than damn near anyone else in hockey. I’d love a guy with that sort of positive charisma on the Sabres. 

hmmm, hard to say. Zegras has a personality fir sure. Krebs is a known leader. Hard to say which ones are positive but it would be something to look at. We need more fun and personality on this team for sure.