2019 NHL Draft

[TrueBlueGED]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Of course not. Panarin Saad is at the level of the ROR trade IMO.

People thought it was trade of two top six forwards, that the Hawks were giving up 15 points in exchange for cap space and power.

In reality, they gave up 40 points in a trade of a first liner for a middle sixes.

Well, it was. Saad's season after the trade was rough, but he's clearly a top-6 winger by both traditional and advanced metrics. Of course, Panarin is a star, so.....still horrible, but not on the level of ROR horrible. Chicago at least got a quality NHL player out of it.

[#freejame]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Of course not. Panarin Saad is at the level of the ROR trade IMO.

People thought it was trade of two top six forwards, that the Hawks were giving up 15 points in exchange for cap space and power.

In reality, they gave up 40 points in a trade of a first liner for a middle sixes.

I thought they traded for Saad back to try to get Toews working again (and cap)

[dudacek]

Saad is a quality NHL player, but he got 47 points this year and 35 last year.

[TrueBlueGED]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Saad is a quality NHL player, but he got 47 points this year and 35 last year.

While playing top notch defense and posting very good possession numbers. He's obviously not in Panarin's class, but he's also obviously not in the Berglund/Sobotka/Thompson triumvirate of smoldering trash if we're making trade comparisons.

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

While playing top notch defense and posting very good possession numbers. He's obviously not in Panarin's class, but he's also obviously not in the Berglund/Sobotka/Thompson triumvirate of smoldering trash if we're making trade comparisons.

And neither is Risto.

[TrueBlueGED]

Just now, dudacek said:

And neither is Risto.

The 3rd overall has incredibly more value than 7th overall. A 2nd pair D does not have tremendously more value than a top-6 forward. 

[#freejame]

Just now, TrueBlueGED said:

The 3rd overall has incredibly more value than 7th overall. A 2nd pair D does not have tremendously more value than a top-6 forward. 

Right handed 40+point defensemen absolutely have much more value than second line wingers though. 

[TrueBlueGED]

8 minutes ago, #freejame said:

Right handed 40+point defensemen absolutely have much more value than second line wingers though. 

Not if they need significant sheltering at even strength to not be a complete sieve. Was Dennis Wideman ever traded for something significantly more valuable than Saad? Because that's who Risto is comparable to. Or, if you want a more recent reference, Phaneuf.

[dudacek]

23 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

The 3rd overall has incredibly more value than 7th overall. A 2nd pair D does not have tremendously more value than a top-6 forward. 

A team once traded up from 4 to 1. The cost was  only 2 3rd-rounders.

A more relevant trade though was the one that brought that team from 11 to 4. The price was Bryan McCabe, who might be a decent comparable to Risto.

Risto complicates things so much. I doubt I could name 20 RD I’d rather have than Risto. I’m sure Blue could find 50.

 

 

Edited June 7, 2019 by dudacek

[TrueBlueGED]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

A team once traded up from 4 to 1. The cost was  only 2 3rd-rounders.

A more relevant trade though was the one that brought that team from 11 to 4. The price was Bryan McCabe, who might be a decent comparable to Risto.

Risto complicates things so much. I doubt I could name 20 RD I’d rather have than Risto. I’m sure Blue could find 50.

Was this back in the days when players like Daigle were "can't miss?" The value isn't the same anymore. And your second scenario kind of proves my point. Assuming Chicago likes Risto, Risto + 8 for 3 would be fair value under that scenario, and you saw fit to toss Saad our way as well. So yes, fleecing. Not that Bowman is unfleecable...

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Was this back in the days when players like Daigle were "can't miss?" The value isn't the same anymore. And your second scenario kind of proves my point. Assuming Chicago likes Risto, Risto + 8 for 3 would be fair value under that scenario, and you saw fit to toss Saad our way as well. So yes, fleecing. Not that Bowman is unfleecable...

Canucks traded with Tampa in 99. Believe it was Burke and Dudley. Tampa then traded 4 to the Rangers for Sundstrom, Cloutier, a 1st and 2nd. Pick 4 became the immortal Pavel Brendl.Now that was a fleecing.

Edited June 7, 2019 by dudacek

[dudacek]

The other thing is you are talking about the value of generic picks. This trade would happen on the draft floor and would be about the value of actual players. 

What if the Hawks have Peyton Krebs ranked 3rd and Cole Caufield and Dylan Cozens in a virtual dead heat for 4/5? They know the Sabres want Turcotte and Byrum isn’t getting to 7.

Chances are excellent they still get Krebs at 7 and at least one of their backups are available. Who wouldn’t take whatever the Sabres are offering, virtually for free?

Edited June 7, 2019 by dudacek

[ubkev]

2 hours ago, Tondas said:

Geez, I must be old.  When I saw Pantera, I thought of Tim Horton driving one on that fateful night.

Vince Neil was driving one when he killed Razzle. Is that reference old enough for you?

[Tondas]

2 hours ago, ubkev said:

Vince Neil was driving one when he killed Razzle. Is that reference old enough for you?

Thanks.  You just made me feel older.

[5th line wingnutt]

Goaltenders https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/2019-nhl-draft-dissecting-the-top-goaltenders-available-this-year

[GASabresIUFAN]

I've been pouring over the prospect commentaries and I think I'm down to 6 players for the 7th pick

1) Turcotte - Top pick for me, but doubtful he falls to us, but I've 2 mock drafts where it happens.

2) Cozens - We need size, speed, skill and a physical player or two and Cozens fits that description.

3) Boldy - Not a speedster, but we need scoring and he can bring it, but does everything else well as well.

4) Dach - Slightly bigger but slightly slower version of Cozens

5) Zegras - More speedy playmaker then goal scorer.

6) Caufield - best pure sniper in the draft.

 

[French Collection]

8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I've been pouring over the prospect commentaries and I think I'm down to 6 players for the 7th pick

1) Turcotte - Top pick for me, but doubtful he falls to us, but I've 2 mock drafts where it happens.

2) Cozens - We need size, speed, skill and a physical player or two and Cozens fits that description.

3) Boldy - Not a speedster, but we need scoring and he can bring it, but does everything else well as well.

4) Dach - Slightly bigger but slightly slower version of Cozens

5) Zegras - More speedy playmaker then goal scorer.

6) Caufield - best pure sniper in the draft.

 

Close to my thoughts.

I like Zegras more than Dach.

[Brawndo]

Turcotte

Zegras or Cozens 

Dach

Caufield

Boldy

[ct fab]

we'll get a good one nonetheless. Important thing is to get a good player at 30/31 to ease the O'Reilly trade

[Drunkard]

43 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I've been pouring over the prospect commentaries and I think I'm down to 6 players for the 7th pick

1) Turcotte - Top pick for me, but doubtful he falls to us, but I've 2 mock drafts where it happens.

2) Cozens - We need size, speed, skill and a physical player or two and Cozens fits that description.

3) Boldy - Not a speedster, but we need scoring and he can bring it, but does everything else well as well.

4) Dach - Slightly bigger but slightly slower version of Cozens

5) Zegras - More speedy playmaker then goal scorer.

6) Caufield - best pure sniper in the draft.

 

I wonder if Botterill even has Cozens or Dach on his board given his apparent disdain for drafting CHL players. I wonder how far down he would reach for a USNTDP or European league guy if the draft went this way be before his turn:

Hughes

Kakko

Turcotte

Caufield

Zegras

Boldy 

Would he sprint to the podium to pick up Byram, Cozens, Krebs, or Dach? Would he gamble on the Russian factor and take Podkolzin? Would he take a lower ranked guy anyway from the leagues he likes anyway?

I imagine it's a moot point because I'm pretty sure Byram is gone before we pick and it's possible that Podkolzin is gone too, but I wonder how strong his preference to avoid CHL guys really goes.

 

Edited June 7, 2019 by Drunkard

[dudacek]

26 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

I wonder if Botterill even has Cozens or Dach on his board given his apparent disdain for drafting CHL players. I wonder how far down he would reach for a USNTDP or European league guy if the draft went this way be before his turn:

Hughes

Kakko

Turcotte

Caufield

Zegras

Boldy 

Would he sprint to the podium to pick up Byram, Cozens, Krebs, or Dach? Would he gamble on the Russian factor and take Podkolzin? Would he take a lower ranked guy anyway from the leagues he likes anyway?

I imagine it's a moot point because I'm pretty sure Byram is gone before we pick and it's possible that Podkolzin is gone too, but I wonder how strong his preference to avoid CHL guys really goes.

 

Still hurting that he took Mittelstadt over Rasmussen, Tippett and Villardi?

Or is it the Dahlin over Svechnikov and Hayton choice that stings more?

For me it’s taking Samuelsson over Serron Noel and Jett Woo.

[Drunkard]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Still hurting that he took Mittelstadt over Rasmussen, Tippett and Villardi?

Or is it the Dahlin over Svechnikov and Hayton choice that stings more?

For me it’s taking Samuelsson over Serron Noel and Jett Woo.

None of the above. I don't even really care given that Europe and the US have seemed to have essentially closed the gap in developing junior talent with the CHL. I honestly just wonder how deep it goes that he hasn't even spent a single pick in 2 years on a CHL guy. I wonder if there was an obvious talent gap if he would stick to his guns and reach, reverse course and go BPA even though it means drafting someone from the CHL, or trade down.

[French Collection]

If a guy like Byram is available at 7 and JBot takes Broberg then there is a definite bias. Why bother scouting the CHL.

I think he highly values the extra two years of development and keeping maximum flexibility with his 50 contracts.

I am a CHL guy but it is tough enough to project the future of 18 year olds that buying extra time is great. The later rounds even more so.

[GASabresIUFAN]

People seem to forget Jbot is Canadian.  He isn’t reaching at 7 to avoid taking a CHL player.  He likes college kids and Euros because he has longer to develop them before he has to give them a contract and he likes that they play against older players.  However with an early 1st he is taking whomever is top on his list regardless of league.  Whomever we draft is going to be signed to a deal within a year or 2 anyway so who cares what league the player is in.  Also don’t forget that Jbot moved two prospects from College/Euro tracks to the CHL in Pekar and UPL.  Both will be in Roch next year.

It happens this year that arguably half the top 10 this year are USNDTP players in Hughes, Turcotte, Zegras, Boldy and Caufield so it’s likely he grabs another one.  However if Byram or Cozens fell to 7 and Turcotte is gone, Jbot  runs up there and calls one of their names. 

Edited June 7, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[Curt]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I've been pouring over the prospect commentaries and I think I'm down to 6 players for the 7th pick

I’ll give my 2 cents and ranking of these guys just for fun.  

1) Turcotte - Top pick for me, but doubtful he falls to us, but I've 2 mock drafts where it happens.  Great all around player.  Great skating.  Pushes the pace.  Is tenacious.  Good shot.  Good playmaker.  Good 2-way player.

2) Dach - Slightly bigger but slightly slower version of Cozens  I have him right there with Turcotte and Byram.  May have the highest upside in the entire draft with his combination of size, good ( but not great) skating, excellent playmaking, good shot, and even solid defensive play.

3) Zegras - More speedy playmaker then goal scorer.  A smaller, slightly better skating, slightly more creative version of Dach.

4) Cozens - We need size, speed, skill and a physical player or two and Cozens fits that description.  I don’t think he has the playmaking upside of those above.  More of a power 2-way C or maybe power winger who goes hard to the net.  Nice size, speed, and shot.

5) Boldy - Not a speedster, but we need scoring and he can bring it, but does everything else well as well.  Skating is ok ( but not great).  Does everything well.  Pretty good shot, passing, size and D.  Just doesn’t have the flashy skills though.

6) Caufield - best pure sniper in the draft.  Fantastic shot.  Great at finding the open space to be open to shoot.  Ok skater.  Ok passer.  Size limits his effectiveness in some areas.  Mostly a one dimensional player.  Will he be able to find space and time against NHL players?

I would have Byram up with Turcotte/Dach.  I would have Krebs,  Newhook, Podkolzin in there before Caufield.