2019 NHL Draft

[North Buffalo]

just suggested Pantera to our sys admin, he says thank you

48 minutes ago, ubkev said:

I'm more of a Pantera guy.

 

[North Buffalo]

 

[LGR4GM]

Future Considerations final ranking 

 

[French Collection]

Should the Sabres look at Brett Leason with their second pick? He's been passed over two previous drafts so he is more mature and perhaps NHL ready.

He is 6'4 200. Skating was his Achiles heel but he has improved a lot and has gone from undrafted x2 to a first rounder.

RW where there is a need. If cut he could go directly to Rochester because of his age.

I am intrigued. 

[Brawndo]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Future Considerations final ranking 

 

That’s the highest I have seen Beecher and the lowest I have seen Bobby Brink. 

[LGR4GM]

26 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Should the Sabres look at Brett Leason with their second pick? He's been passed over two previous drafts so he is more mature and perhaps NHL ready.

He is 6'4 200. Skating was his Achiles heel but he has improved a lot and has gone from undrafted x2 to a first rounder.

RW where there is a need. If cut he could go directly to Rochester because of his age.

I am intrigued. 

Leason isn't on my list and would have to fall into the 3rd to be considered. I'd rather take younger players with similar goal production but less physical maturity. 

Legare and Cajkovic come to mind. 

Edited June 6, 2019 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

Botterill did not tip his hand at all on the radio this morning.

Said there is a very good group of players from 3-10 or 3-12 and that there will be a lot of variation in how teams will have that group ranked.

He is really interested in seeing if teams will wait for players to drop or trade up to get their guy.

Edited June 6, 2019 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

https://theathletic.com/1012017/2019/06/06/pronmans-mock-draft-1-0-projecting-the-first-round-of-the-2019-nhl-draft/

Quote

7) Buffalo: Dylan Cozens, C, Lethbridge-WHL

I could see Buffalo go with Caufield or Matthew Boldy here, but Cozens is a more well-rounded player than both and would make Buffalo feel more comfortable than picking an average skater in Boldy or the 5-foot-7 player in Caufield. Cozens could play center or winger to fit multiple ways into the Sabres’ growing stockpile of young forwards.

 

[Brawndo]

 

[Curt]

I’m not a prospect expert, but I think that list by Button/TSN is pretty terrible.  Not close to what my top 20-30 would be.

[#freejame]

24 minutes ago, Curtisp5286 said:

I’m not a prospect expert, but I think that list by Button/TSN is pretty terrible.  Not close to what my top 20-30 would be.

It’s not close to many of the lists I’ve seen either

[GASabresIUFAN]

I’ve updated my spreadsheet to include Fc’s, Button’s and Hockey Prospect’s latest rankings.  A total of 14 rankings were reviewed. Huge changes

1-15 appear on all 14 ballots, 16-20 appear on at least 13 of 14.

1-2 Hughes and Kakko

3-4 Byram and Turcotte 

5-8 (dead heat) Pod, Cozens, Zegras and Dach

9-11 (but all 3 could be drafted higher) Boldy, Krebs and Caufield

Big gap to 12

12-15 Broberg, Newhook, York, and Soderstrom

16-20 Kaliyev, Seider, Harley, Suzuki and Lavoie

Huge gap to 21 

21-24 (appear on 10-11 ballots) Heinola, Brink, Tomasino Hoglander (if we get very lucky one of these guys could fall to us at 30/31).

Another huge gap to 25, but 25-33 ranked very similarly and appear on 6-8 ballots.

25-33 Knight, Dorofeyev, Pelletier, Bjornfot, Poulin, McMichael, Leason, M Robertson, N Robertson (this is where our 2nd 1st rd pick will likely come from)

another gap down (appearing on 4 or 5 ballots)

34-38 Afanasyev, Puistola, Nikolayez, Honka, and Kolyachonok (I would not be surprised if 2 or 3 of these guys jumped into the 1st rd.  Puistola and Kolyachonok got most of their votes in the very latest updates)

39-44 (3 votes) Holmstrom, Johnson, Thomson, Mastrosimone, Legare, and Beecher.

A total of 56 different players appeared on at least one of the 14 rankings I reviewed.

 

Edited June 6, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, #freejame said:

It’s not close to many of the lists I’ve seen either

 

2 hours ago, Curtisp5286 said:

I’m not a prospect expert, but I think that list by Button/TSN is pretty terrible.  Not close to what my top 20-30 would be.

What I like about Button’s list is that it is his opinion, and only his opinion. And what it should remind us is how different the individual team lists will be from each other, and from the consensus lists, like what @GASabresIUFAN has graciously put together for us.

Some team, maybe lots of teams, are always going to have a Barrett Hayton outlier on their list. It’s just a matter of their outlier lining up with their actual pick.

I have no doubt there are some scouts who have Caufield in the top five and others 10 spots lower.

Edited June 6, 2019 by dudacek

[TrueBlueGED]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

 

What I like about Button’s list is that it is his opinion, and only his opinion. And what it should remind us is how different the individual team lists will be from each other, and from the consensus lists, like what @GASabresIUFAN has graciously put together for us.

Some team, maybe lots of teams, are always going to have a Barrett Hayton outlier on their list. It’s just a matter of their outlier lining up with their actual pick.

I have no doubt there are some scouts who have Caufield in the top five and others 10 spots lower.

Which just reinforces why trading up in the NHL draft is near lunacy. After 1-2 or maybe 3, basically every year, the next 8 guys are the same. Sure, teams and scouts may have preferences, but that's all it is: preferences. There's no clear differentiator. Stay put and take your favorite at that spot. 

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

What I like about Button’s list is that it is his opinion, and only his opinion. And what it should remind us is how different the individual team lists will be from each other, and from the consensus lists, like what @GASabresIUFAN has graciously put together for us.

Some team, maybe lots of teams, are always going to have a Barrett Hayton outlier on their list. It’s just a matter of their outlier lining up with their actual pick.

I have no doubt there are some scouts who have Caufield in the top five and others 10 spots lower.

Button is always terrible and part of it is he picks 2-3 players he likes, rates them high, and then generates clicks because of it. 

[Weave]

1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Which just reinforces why trading up in the NHL draft is near lunacy. After 1-2 or maybe 3, basically every year, the next 8 guys are the same. Sure, teams and scouts may have preferences, but that's all it is: preferences. There's no clear differentiator. Stay put and take your favorite at that spot. 

There is something to be said for putting yourself in a position to pick your preference instead of picking from what's left.  And there is plenty of data to suggest that, although it appears that 3-9 are pretty similar in any given draft, there is actual evidence that 4 (as an example) is statistically likely to be more successful that 9 (for example).

In the NHL draft, moving up makes a hell of alot more sense than moving back.

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, Weave said:

There is something to be said for putting yourself in a position to pick your preference instead of picking from what's left.  And there is plenty of data to suggest that, although it appears that 3-9 are pretty similar in any given draft, there is actual evidence that 4 (as an example) is statistically likely to be more successful that 9 (for example).

In the NHL draft, moving up makes a hell of alot more sense than moving back.

True, and it would be great if the Sabres had the 3rd or 4th pick rather than 7 & should Colorado or Chicago be willing to take the Sabres 3rd to swap would do it, but they'd want at least 30/31 to slide that far.  And that's too expensive IMHO.

[TrueBlueGED]

27 minutes ago, Weave said:

There is something to be said for putting yourself in a position to pick your preference instead of picking from what's left.  And there is plenty of data to suggest that, although it appears that 3-9 are pretty similar in any given draft, there is actual evidence that 4 (as an example) is statistically likely to be more successful that 9 (for example).

In the NHL draft, moving up makes a hell of alot more sense than moving back.

Teams and GMs certainly think that, but over the long haul it really doesn't prove to be true. As to the data, doesn't it fall off a cliff after pick 2 or 3? Like, mid single digit deltas? Without looking it up, I'd guess the probability of being a good NHL player at pick 8 is single digits less than say pick 5. And, of course, there's the question of whether a 10% jump in hit probability is worth the (presumably) astronomical sum it would take to make the move up a few spots. 

Edit: Really good article here - https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks/

we can see that the most significant value in NHL draft picks lies in the first three selections, and the largest drop-off in pick value occurs between picks three and four. Players selected in the four-to-15 range are still generally very valuable across their careers with a 15th-overall pick being worth about 1/3rd of a first-overall selection.

Edited June 7, 2019 by TrueBlueGED

[Brawndo]

The Sabres really, really like Alex Turcotte, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they move up for him. 

And he would be worth it IMO 

Edited June 7, 2019 by Brawndo

[dudacek]

Just now, Brawndo said:

The Sabres really, really like Alex Turcotte, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they move up for him. 

And he would be worth it IMO 

It wouldn’t surprise me and I agree.

Risto and 7 for 3 and Saad?

[TrueBlueGED]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

It wouldn’t surprise me and I agree.

Risto and 7 for 3 and Saad?

That would be a royal fleecing for us. 

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

That would be a royal fleecing for us. 

I know you don’t like Risto, but he plays a more important position, he’s outright outscored Saad over the past two years and Saad is a UFA in two years.i bet Risto has more value around the league.

Also the move addresses needs for each team. Basically depends on how each team perceives the gap between the guy they rank three and the guy they rank seven.

Edited June 7, 2019 by dudacek

[Tondas]

On 6/5/2019 at 7:16 AM, ubkev said:

I'm more of a Pantera guy.

Geez, I must be old.  When I saw Pantera, I thought of Tim Horton driving one on that fateful night.

[TrueBlueGED]

27 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I know you don’t like Risto, but he plays a more important position, he’s outright outscored Saad over the past two years and Saad is a UFA in two years.i bet Risto has more value around the league.

Also the move addresses needs for each team. Basically depends on how each team perceives the gap between the guy they rank three and the guy they rank seven.

So you think we can trade Risto for a Panarin-level player? I know Saad had a really rough season, but I don't think Risto's value is in the stratosphere of that trade. Also, whether Risto plays a more important position really depends on whether you think he's a 2D on a good team or someone who should play sheltered 3rd pair minutes with PP time. 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

So you think we can trade Risto for a Panarin-level player? I know Saad had a really rough season, but I don't think Risto's value is in the stratosphere of that trade. Also, whether Risto plays a more important position really depends on whether you think he's a 2D on a good team or someone who should play sheltered 3rd pair minutes with PP time. 

Of course not. Panarin Saad is at the level of the ROR trade IMO.

People thought it was trade of two top six forwards, that the Hawks were giving up 15 points in exchange for cap space and power.

In reality, they gave up 40 points in a trade of a first liner for a middle sixes.