2019 NHL Draft

[Hoss]

9 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

The “Sabres (compared to all the other teams) have drafted poorly in all rounds over the past 10 years” narrative is lame, dramatic and wrong. No matter how it “feels” worse to some.

I’m trying to find the article, but someone did an analysis of the “hit rate” of draft picks. All things were considered, like realistic expectations of the player, team depth, games played in what league and how many, injuries etc ...

The Sabres were right in the middle of the pack of the league. Ranked #14, 15 or 16 from what I recall.

When literally every other move you’ve made is horseshit the mediocre drafting tends to be magnified.

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, Zamboni said:

The “Sabres (compared to all the other teams) have drafted poorly in all rounds over the past 10 years” narrative is lame, dramatic and wrong. No matter how it “feels” worse to some.

I’m trying to find the article, but someone did an analysis of the “hit rate” of draft picks. All things were considered, like realistic expectations of the player, team depth, games played in what league and how many, injuries etc ...

The Sabres were right in the middle of the pack of the league. Ranked #14, 15 or 16 from what I recall.

I'd need to read the methodology used. When I talk about them drafting bad, I'm referring to their inability to find contributors. Great zemgus is a hit, he also is a 4th liner i can replace during any summer. You can't do that in the first much. The Sabres from 2009-2013 drafted bad. I'd argue 2014 was bad too. They failed in the 2nd round. That stretch has a direct impact on the team today. Even if they hit, they didn't get a lot of quality. 

The nice thing about 2016-2018 is they may have found impact players outside the first. 6k, Laskonen, Bryson, Asplund all have top 9, top 4 or top goalie potential. We need quality, and quantity. 

Edited May 27, 2019 by LGR4GM

[Rasmus_]

This is the type of draft where talent should be available in the mid rounds that could be higher in weaker drafts.  I'm excited, and if we're able to add anything, that would be even more impeccable. 

[Curt]

Why is it that Arthur Kaliyev is not getting as much helium as Cole Caulfield?

Caufield- 5’6-7” 165 RW, 72-28-100 in 64 games on the best USPD team ever, playing beside the #1 pick in the draft, an elite playmaking C.  Top goal scorer in history of the USDP.

Kaliyev- 6’2” 190 RW, 51-51-102 in 67 games on a mediocre OHL team that traded away some top players during the season. 23pts and 23 goals more than his closest teammate.  In the past 20 years, only 3 players have scored more goals in the OHL during their draft season.  Tavares, Stamkos, Debrincat.

I wouldn’t take either at #7, but I think Kaliyev should be getting more hype as a possible top-10 pick.  He has sort a Phil Kessel feel to him, where some question his work ethic in some areas of the game.  I think if he has good combine interviews, and some teams like his personality, he could really shoot up some teams’ draft boards and maybe go top-10.

[#freejame]

1 hour ago, Curtisp5286 said:

Why is it that Arthur Kaliyev is not getting as much helium as Cole Caulfield?

Caufield- 5’6-7” 165 RW, 72-28-100 in 64 games on the best USPD team ever, playing beside the #1 pick in the draft, an elite playmaking C.  Top goal scorer in history of the USDP.

Kaliyev- 6’2” 190 RW, 51-51-102 in 67 games on a mediocre OHL team that traded away some top players during the season. 23pts and 23 goals more than his closest teammate.  In the past 20 years, only 3 players have scored more goals in the OHL during their draft season.  Tavares, Stamkos, Debrincat.

I wouldn’t take either at #7, but I think Kaliyev should be getting more hype as a possible top-10 pick.  He has sort a Phil Kessel feel to him, where some question his work ethic in some areas of the game.  I think if he has good combine interviews, and some teams like his personality, he could really shoot up some teams’ draft boards and maybe go top-10.

I’ve been wanting the Sabres to take a flyer on him since he produced on my GM Sabre’s team. If he’s there at 30/1, I hope Buffalo grabs him. I might be wrong but I think he was pre-season top ten on several sites but has pretty much unanimously fallen. Someone here can probably tell you more. 

[LGR4GM]

He shouldn't be there at 30. If he is though... yea, should take that shot.

[Brawndo]

They didn’t interview him 

[Curt]

11 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

They didn’t interview him 

Interesting.  Guess they aren’t trading up, or back, with him as a target.

Question.  Did they interview anyone projected to go in the 15-25 range?  I know that’s vague, but just trying to see if they are considering trading up, or back.

[Brawndo]

Tomansino And LAVOIE! were interviewed 

[LGR4GM]

I like Tomasino

[dudacek]

23 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Tomansino And LAVOIE! were interviewed 

I’d like either of those guys at 30, I think.

[LGR4GM]

My top 5: This is based on my preferences and watching what I could and reading all I could. I would give you my top 50 but I am still working on that. I have the rough list but I still need to decide a bunch of actual places for guys. 

1. Jack Hughes 5'10" 170lbs C, he was almost replaced by Kakko but I just couldn't quite get there. This is because of my bias towards elite skating. That said, Kakko is more NHL ready. Hughes has a good shot, excellent passing/vision, excellent skating, and competes well. He needs to add about 20lbs of muscle though. I would guess his first full NHL year will be a little underwhelming. 
2. Kaapo Kakko 6'2" 109lbs RW, he just won all of the tournaments at 18 years old. He has a great shot, good skating, and is physically ready for the NHL. I wish his skating was a little better but honestly it is fairly good. I think his vision and shooting are underrated. He does have a physical side down low and can work the cycle. You want a plug and play 60pt player, here you go. His ceiling is higher than that for sure but that seems like a solid base too start. 
3. Alex Turcotte 5'11" 185lbs C, he almost ended up 4th but Turcotte just has a level of compete and snarl coupled with his skating that is hard to ignore. His shot is very good, his skating is very good, his passing is very good. He is better Reinhart in some ways with more grit. I like basically his entire game. I thought at the U18 there were times when he looked fatigued and really I would want him to work on endurance this offseason. He had mono though last year so I will cut him some slack. I want him at #7 but don't think we will be that lucky. 
4. Bowen Byram 6'0" 194lbs LHD, he is the first defender on the list. He deserves to be the first defender on the list. Young with a mid june bday, he had 26points in 22 playoff games in the WHL. He is phenominal skater and very smart with the puck. If he slides to #7 because teams want offense, take him without hesitation. His got ok size, great skating, brains, and battle to be a #1 pairing defender. If he was your #2 LHD behind Dahlin... dear lord your defense would be dominant. 
5. Dylan Cozen 6'3" 181lbs C, this was the hardest part of this list. I had 4 separate players here but ultimately decided on Cozens. He has good skating and a hard shot. He is fairly consistent and can play in all situations. His size is an asset he uses. He can deke at full speed and loves to push the puck up ice. I think there is more to his playmaking once his brain fully catches up. He has a little risk as some project him out as only a very good #2 center. His 2-way game, battle, and skating though make me think he does have #1 center potential in the vein of Getzlaf. 

That's it for now. I won't be writing out full stuff with the full list but I am hoping to finish it shortly after the combine. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

@LGR4GM

I have no problem with Cozens at 5.  I would have Byram at 3 because although he may not be taken at 3, he is almost assuredly going in the top 5.  Besides Hughes and Kakko, no other forward can say that.  I can see scenarios where Cozens, Boldy, Turcotte, Zegras, Dach, Krebs, and Caufield go anywhere from 3 to 10 depending on the opinion of the scouts for that club.  

13 hours ago, #freejame said:

I’ve been wanting the Sabres to take a flyer on him since he produced on my GM Sabre’s team. If he’s there at 30/1, I hope Buffalo grabs him. I might be wrong but I think he was pre-season top ten on several sites but has pretty much unanimously fallen. Someone here can probably tell you more. 

Almost all rankings have him in the top 15.

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@LGR4GM

I have no problem with Cozens at 5.  I would have Byram at 3 because although he may not be taken at 3, he is almost assuredly going in the top 5.  Besides Hughes and Kakko, no other forward can say that.  I can see scenarios where Cozens, Boldy, Turcotte, Zegras, Dach, Krebs, and Caufield go anywhere from 3 to 10 depending on the opinion of the scouts for that club.  

Almost all rankings have him in the top 15.

I believe both Turcotte and Byram will go in the top 5. The big question is who else goes? 

[Brawndo]

Chicago is very interested in Cozens

The Sabres interviewed 3 of 5 of LIger’s Top 5. 

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

My top 5: This is based on my preferences and watching what I could and reading all I could. I would give you my top 50 but I am still working on that. I have the rough list but I still need to decide a bunch of actual places for guys. 

1. Jack Hughes 5'10" 170lbs C, he was almost replaced by Kakko but I just couldn't quite get there. This is because of my bias towards elite skating. That said, Kakko is more NHL ready. Hughes has a good shot, excellent passing/vision, excellent skating, and competes well. He needs to add about 20lbs of muscle though. I would guess his first full NHL year will be a little underwhelming. 
2. Kaapo Kakko 6'2" 109lbs RW, he just won all of the tournaments at 18 years old. He has a great shot, good skating, and is physically ready for the NHL. I wish his skating was a little better but honestly it is fairly good. I think his vision and shooting are underrated. He does have a physical side down low and can work the cycle. You want a plug and play 60pt player, here you go. His ceiling is higher than that for sure but that seems like a solid base too start. 
3. Alex Turcotte 5'11" 185lbs C, he almost ended up 4th but Turcotte just has a level of compete and snarl coupled with his skating that is hard to ignore. His shot is very good, his skating is very good, his passing is very good. He is better Reinhart in some ways with more grit. I like basically his entire game. I thought at the U18 there were times when he looked fatigued and really I would want him to work on endurance this offseason. He had mono though last year so I will cut him some slack. I want him at #7 but don't think we will be that lucky. 
4. Bowen Byram 6'0" 194lbs LHD, he is the first defender on the list. He deserves to be the first defender on the list. Young with a mid june bday, he had 26points in 22 playoff games in the WHL. He is phenominal skater and very smart with the puck. If he slides to #7 because teams want offense, take him without hesitation. His got ok size, great skating, brains, and battle to be a #1 pairing defender. If he was your #2 LHD behind Dahlin... dear lord your defense would be dominant. 
5. Dylan Cozen 6'3" 181lbs C, this was the hardest part of this list. I had 4 separate players here but ultimately decided on Cozens. He has good skating and a hard shot. He is fairly consistent and can play in all situations. His size is an asset he uses. He can deke at full speed and loves to push the puck up ice. I think there is more to his playmaking once his brain fully catches up. He has a little risk as some project him out as only a very good #2 center. His 2-way game, battle, and skating though make me think he does have #1 center potential in the vein of Getzlaf. 

That's it for now. I won't be writing out full stuff with the full list but I am hoping to finish it shortly after the combine. 

 

Bingo 

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Chicago is very interested in Cozens

The Sabres interviewed 3 of 5 of LIger’s Top 5. 

This is good news.

We need the Hawks, Avs, Kings and Wings to fall in love with players who aren’t Turcotte.

Byram and Cozens are the best shots, IMO. Not sure who the other two might be - Dach might fool someone, Pod maybe?

I struggle to see a scenario where Turcotte falls to us.

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Chicago is very interested in Cozens

The Sabres interviewed 3 of 5 of LIger’s Top 5. 

I would guess they did not interview Kakko because he is not there and Hughes because why waste time. 

Cozens to Chicago makes sense. That would impact the rest. 

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

This is good news.

We need the Hawks, Avs, Kings and Wings to fall in love with players who aren’t Turcotte.

Byram and Cozens are the best shots, IMO. Not sure who the other two might be - Dach might fool someone, Pod maybe?

I struggle to see a scenario where Turcotte falls to us.

I have seen and heard some rumblings that teams might take a serious look at Caufield believing he is better Debrincat. 

[LGR4GM]

Let's mock this out quick... 

1. Kakko
2. Hughes
3. Cozens
4. Byram
5. Dach
6. Podkolzin
7. Turcotte

Well... I suppose I can get Turcotte to us at #7 but it would take a small miracle. 

 

[LGR4GM]

I want to like Zegras more but he just seems like he loves the perimeter too much. He is creative for sure but there is always something just missing for me when I watch him. I think it is his reluctance to shoot the puck more. I should like him more but I just like other players. He is good and I would not be disappointed with him. 

Edited May 30, 2019 by LGR4GM
I spelled like crap.

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I want to like Zegras more but he just seems like he love the perimeter too much. He creative for sure but there is always something just missing for me when I watch him. I think it is his reluctance to shoot the puck more. I should like him more but I just like other players. He is good and I would not be disappointed with him. 

I kinda feel the same way, but he does have Marner upside, which Cozens does not. And I am reading that he has a Danny Briere-style dirty streak in him.

Unfortunately, I can also easily see him develop into a Tyler Ennis level player.

[LGR4GM]

Cozens upside is intriguing. He is deceptively good at playmaking when he does it. His shot is solid. I like his skating. He has good battle.  I just don't know if all of that gets him to 1st line level. I feel like he might fall into that 2nd line but really good level. Of course, I also don't think he has the bust potential of some other guys. 

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Cozens upside is intriguing. He is deceptively good at playmaking when he does it. His shot is solid. I like his skating. He has good battle.  I just don't know if all of that gets him to 1st line level. I feel like he might fall into that 2nd line but really good level. Of course, I also don't think he has the bust potential of some other guys. 

I’m mostly with you on this one too.

Don’t ever see him scoring more than 60 points, but he’s big, fast competitive and will be a load when he fills out. Pretty safe bet to be a 2nd liner and might evolve into a good playoff performer.

I like the power forward profile sliding into our core mix along with franchise player Jack, sniper Jeff, playmaker Casey and cerebral Sam.

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’m mostly with you on this one too.

Don’t ever see him scoring more than 60 points, but he’s big, fast competitive and will be a load when he fills out. Pretty safe bet to be a 2nd liner and might evolve into a good playoff performer.

I like the power forward profile sliding into our core mix along with franchise player Jack, sniper Jeff, playmaker Casey and cerebral Sam.

I mean we can split the difference between Cozens and Turcotte and take Boldy. 

[Brawndo]

45 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I would guess they did not interview Kakko because he is not there and Hughes because why waste time. 

Cozens to Chicago makes sense. That would impact the rest. 

I have seen and heard some rumblings that teams might take a serious look at Caufield believing he is better Debrincat. 

Or they wanted to get background information on his teammates at the USNDTP.

28 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I want to like Zegras more but he just seems like he love the perimeter too much. He creative for sure but there is always something just missing for me when I watch him. I think it is his reluctance to shoot the puck more. I should like him more but I just like other players. He is good and I would not be disappointed with him. 

His speed and versatility will land him in the top ten.

14 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Cozens upside is intriguing. He is deceptively good at playmaking when he does it. His shot is solid. I like his skating. He has good battle.  I just don't know if all of that gets him to 1st line level. I feel like he might fall into that 2nd line but really good level. Of course, I also don't think he has the bust potential of some other guys. 

The Sabres might look at this and say we are set at 1C for at least seven more years, drafting him to be a 2C might be their plan