2019 NHL Draft

[Derrico]

3 hours ago, Brawndo said:

 

Byram is an outstanding defenseman and would solidify the Top 4, however this team’s prospect pool is woefully short of Top 6 Forwards. Is there more value in a future Top 6 Forward or a 2nd Pairing D Man at 7th Overall? 

BPA

[Crusader1969]

3 hours ago, Brawndo said:

 

Byram is an outstanding defenseman and would solidify the Top 4, however this team’s prospect pool is woefully short of Top 6 Forwards. Is there more value in a future Top 6 Forward or a 2nd Pairing D Man at 7th Overall? 

 I think if it’s close you take the Dman over the winger.   Plus sabres will be set at center for next 8 years once they break bank on Duchene ? 

Best case scenario (from current roster / prospects) who is the sabres 2nd pair LHD long term? Pilut? 

[rakish]

For me, there's a fairly hard line at 5, so it sucks to be picking 7. Maybe one of the five make it to seven, most likely Turcotte, but possibly Podkolzin, I think Byram dropping is doubtful.

I'm OK with maybe 5 different players at 7 (Newhook, Harley, Dorofayev, Brink, Dach), but one or two will be there at 12. I would trade down, but someone has to be in love with someone still available at 7 and wants to trade up.

I like to look at where players fit into the decade to have a better idea of their value. For forwards, I have Hughes at 3 and 65 (His USDP 18 part of the year was very good, his USHL part, not so much), I would pick Kakko second, he's 23rd for the decade. Turcotte 17 and 40.  Dorofayav 36 (good in the MHL, not so much in better leagues), Newhook 44, but BCHL has such a small track record, it's hard to know. Brink at 53, Dach at 61. Notice that there's pretty much one player in each 10 segments for the decade, so it's an average draft, at least near the top of the forwards.

For Defensemen, Byram is at 5 for the decade (Dahlen, Bouchard, Hamilton, Provarov, Byram, Werenski, Fabbro, Rielly, Dobson, Brannstrom), Harley at 15, York at 44 and 52. So defensemen are a little thin this year near the top.

I got 6 weeks to think on it, but I'll probably go Harley or Newhook at 7.

[GASabresIUFAN]

57 minutes ago, utsvävande said:

For me, there's a fairly hard line at 5, so it sucks to be picking 7. Maybe one of the five make it to seven, most likely Turcotte, but possibly Podkolzin, I think Byram dropping is doubtful.

I'm OK with maybe 5 different players at 7 (Newhook, Harley, Dorofayev, Brink, Dach), 

I got 6 weeks to think on it, but I'll probably go Harley or Newhook at 7.

I know you have your formula but Harley, Dorofayev, Brink and maybe even Newhook will be available at 15.  

There is a firming top 10.  Caufield is the wild card who could jump into the top 10 or even 5.

I agree on a firm top 5.  Hughes, Kakko, Pod, Byram and Cozens.

the next 5 are Krebs, Dach, Turcotte, Boldy and Zegras in some order.  

I like what Brink brings also but he was the US U18 team’s 6th best forward on a loaded team.  

Edited May 2, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[rakish]

Yeah, that's why I say it sucks to be at 7, because no one I want will be there, and everyone I'll take will be there later. My thought is everyone feels the same way, so why would you trade assets to go from 12 or 13 to 7?

[GASabresIUFAN]

Actually I’m happy at 7.  I like all the players who could be there.  Boldy is my favorite.  Dach, Cozens, Turcotte, Boldy, Zegras and Caufield will be great additions to the Sabres.  It would be hard to miss with any of these guys.  This is a very deep top 22 to 25 players IMHO.  It reminds me of 2003 in many ways.  

[dudacek]

Last mock I read had Cozens at 10.

Dach is the only player Utsavande wants at 7 that I've seen rated that high.

There is a hard line after two. After that...?

[LGR4GM]

Byram won't be around at 7 so stop speculating on him being a Sabre. He won't make it past LA if available. 

Alex Newhook should be considered at #7 overall. His BCHL production and WJC18 production speak volumes to that. 

One thing I would note about Krebs in your model, he played on a complete tire fire of a team. That is going to impact his production and drop him in your model. 

 

Edited May 2, 2019 by LGR4GM

[Hoss]

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Byram won't be around at 7 so stop speculating on him being a Sabre. He won't make it past LA if available. 

 

you simply do not know this and it is completely okay that people want to speculate about him.

[LGR4GM]

18 minutes ago, Hoss said:

you simply do not know this and it is completely okay that people want to speculate about him.

What do you want to bet? 

Keep in mind that LA hasn't drafted a defender in round 1 since 2010 and Derek Forbort. They have however drafted... 4 centers in round 1 and 2 over the last 2 years: Kupari, Vilardi, Thomas, and Anderson-Dolan. The only LHD in their system under the age of 27 worth noting is Kale Clague.

The only way he gets past LA is if they have a different defender ranked higher. I just doubt that currently. 

Edited May 2, 2019 by LGR4GM

[Hoss]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

What do you want to bet? 

literally nothing.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Hoss said:

literally nothing.

Cool. 

[LGR4GM]

Well I presented my logic of why I do not think he gets passed LA. I suppose in some weird scenario he could but it seems unlikely. The top 5 seems to firming up. At least 4 of the top 5 are. Podkolzin could slide a little but the top 4 talents are being discussed as Hughes, Kakko, Pod, Byram. Cozens seems to be the 5th guy but that is less firm. 

[dudacek]

What if LA thinks (insert name here) is simply better than Byrum?

Is it not possible they consider Byrum to be Keith Yandle and Turcotte to be Yzerman?

[Curt]

4 hours ago, utsvävande said:

Yeah, that's why I say it sucks to be at 7, because no one I want will be there, and everyone I'll take will be there later. My thought is everyone feels the same way, so why would you trade assets to go from 12 or 13 to 7?

Actually, I don’t think everyone feels that way.  The majority of people/scouts’ player evaluations differ greatly from your’s.

[shrader]

Jones, Daniel

All it takes is one team to completely sink any version of the pre-draft rankings.  Sure, it's a different sport, but it's very fresh in the mind and we can find countless examples across each league.  The first hockey one coming to my mind would be Thomas Hickey, but that probably jumps out due to the team that drafted him.

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, shrader said:

Jones, Daniel

All it takes is one team to completely sink any version of the pre-draft rankings.  Sure, it's a different sport, but it's very fresh in the mind and we can find countless examples across each league.  The first hockey one coming to my mind would be Thomas Hickey, but that probably jumps out due to the team that drafted him.

Barrett Hayton in 2018 comes to mind or Zacharchy Sensyyn in 2015

[rakish]

 

Barrett Hayton was OK this year, better than Zadina

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, utsvävande said:

 

Barrett Hayton was OK this year, better than Zadina

He was a bit of a reach though in 2018. 

Zachary Zenyshyn still remains the poster child for that though. 

[pi2000]

I just cannot get into this draft.   Just underwhelming options up and down the board.

If I've learned anything over the last 5-6 years, it's that BUF needs to start hitting on some mid-round picks.     

Any idiot can pick BPA in rounds 1 and 2, but those middle rounds are where you differentiate yourself as a GM.

[North Buffalo]

I am still hoping for a trade to move up and nab Turcotte, not sure it can happen and probably involves Risto. Is that worth doing?

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

I just cannot get into this draft.   Just underwhelming options up and down the board.

If I've learned anything over the last 5-6 years, it's that BUF needs to start hitting on some mid-round picks.     

Any idiot can pick BPA in rounds 1 and 2, but those middle rounds are where you differentiate yourself as a GM.

We are not talking about the same 2019 draft if this is how you feel. 

4 minutes ago, North Buffalo said:

I am still hoping for a trade to move up and nab Turcotte, not sure it can happen and probably involves Risto. Is that worth doing?

IMPO, no it is not worth doing that. 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

44 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

We are not talking about the same 2019 draft if this is how you feel. 

IMPO, no it is not worth doing that. 

Maybe you could help us a bit. Rather than rating these players against each other in a mock draft, could you compare them to lets say....Mitts/ Nylander/ Risto or others as far as the hype around those players as the draft closed in on us and what to maybe expect from these picks in comparison to past picks. In other words, do you expect players like Cozens/ Dach/ Zegras, Turcotte to be better than what we expected Mitts to be right from the get go or will they need some AHL time. Will Byram likely be twice as good as Risto or 10x better or is he Keith or TJ Brennan?

I think this would help in any confusion as to what to expect instead of which pick is better than rest. If you compare Turcotte and Zegras it doesn't give us any idea of how they compare to Mitts. Are any of them better and can we expect more than other players that we picked in that general area of the draft. Seeing that you think Byram will be gone before we pick, what other Dman would you rate as the best option for us? Is there a Dman who might rate somewhere between a Dahlin and Risto in terms of pure talent.

Thanks ahead of time for all your input and time you put into this.

[dudacek]

Corey Pronman of the Athletic says it’s an absolute pick ‘em after Kakko.

He’s heard no less than 11 names “mentioned at the very top of the draft by at least one NHL source, not because that is where I have them ranked.”

Vasili Podkolzin, Kirby Dach, Dylan Cozens, Bowen Byram, Alex Turcotte, Trevor Zegras, Matthew Boldy, Peyton Krebs, Philip Broberg, Alex NewhooK, Cole Caufield

[WildCard]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

I just cannot get into this draft.   Just underwhelming options up and down the board.

If I've learned anything over the last 5-6 years, it's that BUF needs to start hitting on some mid-round picks.     

Any idiot can pick BPA in rounds 1 and 2, but those middle rounds are where you differentiate yourself as a GM.

If any GM hit on their 1st and 2nd round pick every year they'd have a job for life