Should we root for the Sabres to lose out?

[nfreeman]

OK, so it's been another really disappointing season.  The first couple of months included a number of thrilling moments, very competitive and exciting games and real hope that they were back to relevance or at least in the ballpark.  The last couple of months have been awful and pretty much on a long downward slope.

With 13 games left, the Sabres are currently tied with 3 other teams for 7th-worst record, with 69 points (heh).  There are 2 teams with 65 points and 2 teams with 72 points.  So, depending on how the rest of the season plays out for the Sabres and the other 7 teams who are between 65 pts and 72 pts, the Sabres could end up anywhere between 5th-worst and 12th-worst.

The 12th-worst team will have an 8.2% chance at moving up to the top 3 in the lottery and a 2.5% chance at #1 overall. 

The 5th-worst team will have an 26.1% chance at moving up to the top 3 in the lottery and an 8.5% chance at #1 overall.

The Sabres, at 8th-worst overall via tiebreakers, are currently at 19.0% and 6.0%.

The Sabres have lost 5 in a row and are 2-6-2 in their last 10.

I and many others firmly, wisely and correctly opposed tanking for Eichel.  My reasoning was simply that it usually doesn't work, and the tanking team usually ends up stuck in the basement.  I think I've been vindicated.

Having said that, I am OK with the Sabres losing out at this point.  This isn't like burning a bubble team to the ground with the plan of scooping up a franchise player and quickly rebounding to contender status, which is what they did last time.  This year, they tried to win for the bulk of the season and it didn't work.  They know that they have some good pieces in place and many other areas for improvement. 

This is about throwing away the last 15% of a disappointing season in order to improve the prospect pipeline, perhaps substantially.  Unlike the Eichel tank, I don't think there is much downside here.  I don't think 4 or 5 more wins in their last 13 games would meaningfully impact the team's psyche, and I don't think there is a material difference in the prospects for next year between finishing 6th-worst and finishing 12th-worst. 

In a somewhat analogous situation, the Sabres won a bunch of games down the stretch the year they drafted Risto -- and the spread there between winning and losing down the stretch became the spread between Barkov and Risto.

So I am officially OK with a mini-tank.

 

 

[North Buffalo]

Its inevitable now.

[Eleven]

On No. 3, it's a "no, but" for me.  I supported tanking once the calendar changed from January to February, or around then.

This team learning how to win again is more important than a draft pick, IMO.

Edited March 13, 2019 by Eleven

[That Aud Smell]

I find myself utterly numb to this team's fortunes. It's a feeling that took hold over the past couple of months as the team returned a basement-dwelling form.

Come Labor Day, I'm sure I'll be excited for a new season. Right now, though -- I'm just done.

[Eleven]

Just now, That Aud Smell said:

I find myself utterly numb to this team's fortunes. It's a feeling that took hold over the past couple of months as the team returned a basement-dwelling form.

Come Labor Day, I'm sure I'll be excited for a new season. Right now, though -- I'm just done.

Yep.  I don't have a plan for watching tomorrow's game, and I don't care.

I cannot watch much of any games in the next two weeks because of work, and I don't care.

[Drunkard]

I'm all in for a mini-tank and I supported the original tank.

I should probably clarify that I don't actively root for the Sabres to play poorly when I watch them, but given how poorly they've played since 2019 started, I have been watching games less and less frequently even though I already paid for NHL.tv for the season. When they play poorly and I'm watching I find it funny more often than not, but their crappy play does make me less inclined to watch. Lately I find myself just checking the notifications on the NHL app during games while I watch something else. When the Sabres score and/or win I watch the highlights and I'm happy for whoever scores, but when they lose I don't let it bother me and I check the standings to see where they are at with regards to the draft.

 

[Huckleberry]

yes , no , yes , they took my heart and soul again this year.

 

[LGR4GM]

As repeatedly stated, this shouldn't be a tank. We didn't dump all pending ufas to finish last. At best this is bad season. 

 

[apuszczalowski]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

As repeatedly stated, this shouldn't be a tank. We didn't dump all pending ufas to finish last. At best this is bad season. 

 

That just makes it sadder, they didnt intend to be bad, this was them trying to get better and improve.....

 

As for rooting for them to lose out, it doesnt matter, they are probably going to lose out anyways so at least prepare for it, and if they win some you can be pleasantly surprised!

[dudacek]

Practically speaking, the Odds of hitting a Reinhart don’t appreciably change at 10 or 4 and the odds of hitting a Dahlin are negligible no matter where we finish this year. 

Practicality aside the fan base needs wins, and more importantly, the young core needs wins.

There has been too much losing around here to ever accept it again under any circumstances.

Enough!

[Doohicksie]

I know the drill, we've been through this before.  Root for a win, take solace that a loss means improved draft position.

[Zamboni]

Well my mindset is.... in order to properly use the term “tanking”, a true tanking is what Darcy and Murray did. Trade away almost all the top talent. Trade away Eichel, Risto, Dahlin, Ullmark, Reinhart, Skinner, Mitts. Bottom the hell out of this team and then rebuild thru drsft picks and good trades.

So .... no .... this team is not tanking, and will not tank. As much as others may want to cloud true tanking and true rebuilding the team.

I rooted for losses during the Reinhart, Eichel, and Dahlin draft. No more. I’m done wanting losses. Time to build around the assets we have. And yes, naysayers, we do have nice young assets worth building around.

[Doohicksie]

So what did they do for Dahlin, if they didn't tank?

[Zamboni]

2 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

So what did they do for Dahlin, if they didn't tank?

They flat out sucked and lost. Phil freakin Housley.

They didn’t acquire Pominville, Scandella, Kane, O’Reilly, and Lehner with the mindset of tanking. 

Signing AHLers to fill the majority of your NHL team is true tanking.

[mjd1001]

Even if they did 'lose out', it would help their position (likely) but probably not that much.

I'm pretty sure the Rangers are going to finish ahead of the Sabres anyway (they are tied in points and games now)

Vancouver and Anaheim would likely pass the Sabres if they 'lost out', but I don't think they drop any more than those 2 spots.

 

NJ, LA, and/or Detroit would have to get 10-12 points in their last 10-12 games to catch a Sabres team at 69 points..and while possible, none of those teams are playing even close to that level now.

 

 

 

[Formerly Allan in MD]

This team and this coach don't need much additional help losing.

[Kruppstahl]

I've been at the "lose out" stage for about a week now.  It's obvious.

Finishing the season in such ugly fashion that Housley is fired at the end of the season is the best thing that can happen to this franchise long term.

Sometimes in life you have to take a step backward so you can take 2 forward.

 

 

16 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

They flat out sucked and lost. Phil freakin Housley.

They didn’t acquire Pominville, Scandella, Kane, O’Reilly, and Lehner with the mindset of tanking. 

Signing AHLers to fill the majority of your NHL team is true tanking.

Don't even get into it.  "Tank" is suddenly a word thrown around a lot in hockey chat forum circles but most folks don't seem to understand the concept or how it works.  Most posters who use the term over at OBD discussing the Bills literally don't understand the concept. 

 

 

[Doohicksie]

So be honest:  Who's still watching the games?

[Eleven]

3 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

So be honest:  Who's still watching the games?

It's no longer must see TV for me.  And it's certainly not must go to the game, either.  If they're on and I catch the game, fine.  Otherwise, there are too many other pleasant pastimes in life.

[Kruppstahl]

10 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

So be honest:  Who's still watching the games?

Definitely me.  I watch all of them.  Usually late at night in quick order recorded on DVR.  You can get through an intermission in about 10 seconds on the fastest FF speed my DVR has.  It's great.  

I can also avoid that creep Duff and my boy Marty stammering away in his Quebeclish.

 

 

[Zamboni]

I’ve been a STH since 2004 and so I’ve gone to my more than fair share of games. If I’m not going, I’m watching. I’ve watched almost every game this season. And will continue to do so. 

Its painful lately, but IMO the tanking years were much more painful. 

[Gatorman0519]

The ROR deal torpedoed the season.  It’s unarguable now.  

19 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

So be honest:  Who's still watching the games?

I watch.  I’m used to losing now.  So it doesn’t bother me as much, 

[Scottysabres]

I was honest in my answers. Yes to all 3. I make no excuses, it is my view of the increase in draft lottery odds that I'm basing my answers on 2 of those questions.

I will still root for them to win regardless because I'm sick of losing, but in the end I do not believe Eichel will stay beyond his current contract because of the losing culture that has gripped this organization and they cannot find a solution for it. Therefore, 2 future high end draft pieces will be needed to eventually replace his departure.

Is this opinion? Of course, but best to be prepared.

[SDS]

No offense, but the premise is silly. Whether I root for the team or against the team it doesn’t affect their play one iota. Neither does any of the venom spewed their way at the office or here. 

They finish where they finish. I hope to see some entertaining hockey like I have most of the year, the Avs game notwithstanding. 

[Gatorman0519]

Monday’s lines:

Nylander  Mittelstadt  Thompson

Sheary  Rodrigues  Reinhart

Skinner  Sobotka  Pominville

Wilson  Larsson  Okposo

 

Hunwick  Ristolainen

Scandella  Nelson

Dahlin  Montour

My God!  We won’t score again.