Forwards Next Year - Fixing the Middle Six

[dudacek]

I’m on board with looking at the usual suspects of Dzingel and Hayes if we try to take the UFA centre route.

But you know who would be an intriguing fit for two or three years if we could ever convince him he needs to be here? Pavelski.

More realistically: Eberle, Brassard, Nyquist, Zucarello, Brock Nelson, Colin Wilson, Fillipula, Boyle, Sheehan, Donskoi, Connolly, Spezza, Andrés Lee, Justin Williams...any of these guys a good fit?

[Huckleberry]

Brassard / spezza / williams  : done / to old / to old.

Connolly bottom six yes.    Nyquist and zuccarello will both get 6 - 7 mill.   Eberle is soft and we got enough of those.

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://buffalonews.com/2019/03/18/buffalo-sabres-jason-botterill-phil-housley-jeff-skinner-lance-lysowski-nhl/

Lance mentions moving on from the bottom tier forwards.  @dudacek mentioned the same thing in the off-season thread.  

Sam, Jack, Skinner, Sheary, Erod, Mitts, KO, and Thompson will all be here next season unless something un-expected happens.  

That leaves 5 forward slots to upgrade 2nd line center, find a sniper or two and add toughness to the forward group.  This is going to be a tall order.  If Olofsson and Nylnder press for full time NHL duty, that leaves only 3 slots for a 2nd line center and a physical forward and a 13th utility spot.  

In this scenario how does Jbot bring back any of Sobotka, Wilson, Pommers, Larsson or Girgensons?  

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://theathletic.com/871899/2019/03/18/stimson-reviewing-the-sabres-depth-issues-and-the-cap-as-they-look-to-the-offseason/

According to this article 47.3% of our even strength scoring comes from our top line.  Only Edm is more top heavy at 53.2%. League average is 40%.

The author thinks we will keep one of Larsson or Girgensons, we’ll sign Skinner and only one Amerks makes the team out of Smith, Nylander and Olofsson. 

His suggestion for fixing this roster is not to find a 2nd line center, but to use that cap to enhance the bottom three lines and take pressure off Eichel and Skinner

He suggests Donskoi from SJ to be Jack’s new RW (for about 4 mill).  

This moves Reinhart as the anchor of the 2nd line with Sheary and ERod.

The 3rd line would be Mitts centering Weal (UFA 1.75) and Raffl (UFA 2.35)

The 4th line would come from a group of an Amerk, Thompson, KO and whoever (if any) of Larsson, Girgensons, and Sobotka.

 

While these ideas are interesting and the analytics he uses to justify his choices make for an interesting read, none of his work solves the central issues of scoring and toughness.  Donskoi would certainly help and I like that idea. He looks like a player who has the potential to play a bigger role on the Sabres then he can in SJ. The other 2 ideas I can take or leave.

To his credit he focused on FAs, but admits that moving out D like Risto and Scandella could finance the improvements upfront.

 

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://buffalonews.com/2019/03/18/buffalo-sabres-jason-botterill-phil-housley-jeff-skinner-lance-lysowski-nhl/

Lance mentions moving on from the bottom tier forwards.  @dudacek mentioned the same thing in the off-season thread.  

Sam, Jack, Skinner, Sheary, Erod, Mitts, KO, and Thompson will all be here next season unless something un-expected happens.  

That leaves 5 forward slots to upgrade 2nd line center, find a sniper or two and add toughness to the forward group.  This is going to be a tall order.  If Olofsson and Nylnder press for full time NHL duty, that leaves only 3 slots for a 2nd line center and a physical forward and a 13th utility spot.  

In this scenario how does Jbot bring back any of Sobotka, Wilson, Pommers, Larsson or Girgensons?  

Looking at this post in combination with the defensive discussion in the other thread, that 2nd line centre addition is paramount. And not just a placeholder, a bonafide top-6 centreman. 

If it unfolds as you postulate, Botterill will perhaps be altering 3 forward spots, and taken from the discussion in the other thread as mentioned, 1 bottom-pair defenseman spot.

We are going to finish in the bottom 10 this year with a record over the final 75% of the season considerably worse, and potential additions on the clock include a 2C, two depth forwards and 1 depth defenceman. Other teams are free to, and will, attempt to improve their rosters in the offseason, too. 

If Olofsson and Nylander make the team like you mentioned, and those 4 specified additions are the only ones made, that 2nd line centreman addition is not only absolutely necessary, they are going to have to be a very good player, for us to hope to improve substantially, let alone make the playoffs. 

Edited March 19, 2019 by Thorny

[dudacek]

I will be shocked if Dahlin doesn't take a step next year and there is a decent chance of improvement from one or more of Pilut/Ullmark/Smith/Olofsson/Nylander/Mittelstadt/Thompson.

But I agree 100% with Thorny. We have to add a legitimate ice-tilting forward, someone who can perform in the general neighbourhood of Skinner/O'Reilly/Kane if we have any hope of making a jump. I like JT Miller, but he's probably not enough. Two JT Millers maybe?

This is also why I doubt Botterill re-signs Pominville, Larry and Girgs and may even buy out Sobotka — they take up roster spots that need to be available for better players, or developing prospects.

Ideally, I'd want to see something like this:

• Skinner Eichel anchoring line 1
• Reinhart and a really good veteran acquisition anchoring line 2
• Sheary, Okposo, Rodrigues anchoring the bottom six, along with Rodrigues-level-or-better vet capable of playing top six in a pinch.
• Two of Mittelstadt/Thompson/Nylander/Smith/Olofsson forcing their way past the group above and into the top six.
• Two good fourth-liners with some speed and passion (Wilson types, for depth)

For sake of argument

• Skinner Eichel Nylander
• Thompson (Drury) Reinhart
• Sheary Mittelstadt (Hecht)
• Smith Rodrigues Okposo

That's not the toughest lineup, and it is counting too much on unproven kids improving. But that is what Botterill seems to be counting on.

And it does put two vets on each line that are able to shine where they are slotted, support the kids, and move up the roster if needed.

Edited March 19, 2019 by dudacek

[dudacek]

GA is proposing Miller and Donskoi as the vets in the other thread and they fit with the above.

Im just not sure Miller is good enough to do what this lineup asks him to do. Now Miller in the Hecht slot and somebody better than Miller in the Drury spot? We’d be in business.

Miller and Palat for Risto and a first?

Put Casey in between Palat and Reinhart, and Miller between Thompson and Sheary?

Sign Joe Pavelski and Donskoi?

really curious to see what Botterill will do.

Edited March 19, 2019 by dudacek

[Thorner]

44 minutes ago, dudacek said:

GA is proposing Miller and Donskoi as the vets in the other thread and they fit with the above.

Im just not sure Miller is good enough to do what this lineup asks him to do. Now Miller in the Hecht slot and somebody better than Miller in the Drury spot? We’d be in business.

Miller and Palat for Risto and a first?

Put Casey in between Palat and Reinhart, and Miller between Thompson and Sheary?

Sign Joe Pavelski and Donskoi?

really curious to see what Botterill will do.

Exactly.

I may be skeptical of Botterill's plan to an extent, more specifically it's apparent timeline, but I can still appreciate it's intrinsic logic - I'm ok with counting on young players to take steps forward, if they are given a realistic chance for success. I don't think that happened this year with Mittelstadt. It was either a swing and a miss on Berglund or a miss-judgement of his NHL readiness. 

I'd much rather it be an error like that from Botterill than an indication that he was, and is, good with the centre ice performance this season, that this was what he expected. 

Bring in that ice-tilting 2C, and I see it as mistake made, corrected, and while we can only judge him based on results, I'd have a more comfortable perception of his chosen timeline. 

(I should add that if that move is made in conjunction with losing Skinner, it changes things.)

Edited March 19, 2019 by Thorny

[#freejame]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

GA is proposing Miller and Donskoi as the vets in the other thread and they fit with the above.

Im just not sure Miller is good enough to do what this lineup asks him to do. Now Miller in the Hecht slot and somebody better than Miller in the Drury spot? We’d be in business.

Miller and Palat for Risto and a first?

Put Casey in between Palat and Reinhart, and Miller between Thompson and Sheary?

Sign Joe Pavelski and Donskoi?

really curious to see what Botterill will do.

This is my dream free agent acquisition. He’s still a force on the ice and definitely is a leader. He would be our Marleau...only better. 

[PerreaultForever]

I cannot shake the feeling that there will be trade with Tampa involving Risto that might shake up our entire forward/2C situation. JBot just strikes me as a guy who will move out most everyone who wasn't his choice or doesn't fit his ideas exactly. 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

7 hours ago, #freejame said:

This is my dream free agent acquisition. He’s still a force on the ice and definitely is a leader. He would be our Marleau...only better. 

I've considered this too. It would add a little extra to the Sabres/TO rivalry.

I'm all in.

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I cannot shake the feeling that there will be trade with Tampa involving Risto that might shake up our entire forward/2C situation. JBot just strikes me as a guy who will move out most everyone who wasn't his choice or doesn't fit his ideas exactly. 

I think this is true. He doesn’t strike me as married to anyone not named Jack or Dahlin.  

As to Miller, before playing a lesser role in TB this season, Miller had 3 straight 20 goal campaigns and 2 straight 50 pt campaigns.  He was playing 17 minutes a night in 2017-18 and played in a top 2 line role with the Rangers.   He has also shown decent numbers in the face-off circle.  He also has a career shooting % of 13.6.  Of his 94 career goals, 69 are at even strength (73%). 

Miller also brings some size to the party at 6-1, 218. He has had 4 straight seasons of 100+ hits including 104 this season so far.  From a Sabres standpoint, Miller is being under utilized in TB because of the emergence of guys like Point and Goude, driving down his numbers some and likely making him available to us as TB needs to create cap room.

I think he’s be a perfect fit skill and age wise for the 2nd line center until Casey is ready for that role.  He also has 57 playoff games under his belt plus what he gets this season in TB 

 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

Seeing that we're becoming one of the laughing stocks of the NHL, I thought it would be appropriate that we make extensive changes in the line-up. With that in mind I refuse to consider anymore of these piddly trades and signings of UFA's. It's time for change.....BIG change to this roster. My ideas hopefully will put a smile on your face and give you a rise as well. 

Here it goes.....your 2019-20 roster to take us to the Cup and allows for us to tell everyone to piss off. Players position is disregarded in this fun exercise.

Forwards:

1st line....Jack/Skinner/ Fast

2nd line...Little/ Pekar/ Panik

3rd line...Seguin/Johnson/ Getzlaf

4th line...Point/ Moore/ Wood

D-men

1st pair...Holden/ Johnson

2nd pair...Gravel/ Burns (any biker knows how this feels)

3rd pair...Lovejoy/ Hickey

4th Pair...Weber/ Vlasic (everyone's favorites on their footlong)

Git 'er done.

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Seeing that we're becoming one of the laughing stocks of the NHL, I thought it would be appropriate that we make extensive changes in the line-up. With that in mind I refuse to consider anymore of these piddly trades and signings of UFA's. It's time for change.....BIG change to this roster. My ideas hopefully will put a smile on your face and give you a rise as well. 

Here it goes.....your 2019-20 roster to take us to the Cup and allows for us to tell everyone to piss off. Players position is disregarded in this fun exercise.

Forwards:

1st line....Jack/Skinner/ Fast

2nd line...Little/ Pekar/ Panik

3rd line...Seguin/Johnson/ Getzlaf

4th line...Point/ Moore/ Wood

D-men

1st pair...Holden/ Johnson

2nd pair...Gravel/ Burns (any biker knows how this feels)

3rd pair...Lovejoy/ Hickey

4th Pair...Weber/ Vlasic (everyone's favorites on their footlong)

Git 'er done.

LOL. Since it's fantasy time now maybe just give us BOTH Tkachuks. :)

[GASabresIUFAN]

Olofsson continues to lead the Amerks.  Nylander (granted small sample size) is looking like an NHL player.  

I still like the ideas of Miller and Donskoi.  Are those 4 players enough?

Skinner EIchel Donskoi

Sheary Miller Reinhart

Nylander Mitts Olofsson

Erod Larsson Okposo

Sobotka

Thompson starts with the Amerks.

That is a really interesting lineup.  I like the kiddie corps 3rd line.  The top 2 lines would have some serious skill and force match up problems that should allow the kids to thrive, much like the 2005 Sabres with Vanek, Roy and Max as the 3rd line.  

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Olofsson continues to lead the Amerks.  Nylander (granted small sample size) is looking like an NHL player.  

I still like the ideas of Miller and Donskoi.  Are those 4 players enough?

Skinner EIchel Donskoi

Sheary Miller Reinhart

Nylander Mitts Olofsson

Erod Larsson Okposo

Sobotka

Thompson starts with the Amerks.

That is a really interesting lineup.  I like the kiddie corps 3rd line.  The top 2 lines would have some serious skill and force match up problems that should allow the kids to thrive, much like the 2005 Sabres with Vanek, Roy and Max as the 3rd line.  

I think that 3rd line would be all right because Olofsson is older and more mature with the SHL experience.

[Thorner]

On 3/24/2019 at 12:23 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

Olofsson continues to lead the Amerks.  Nylander (granted small sample size) is looking like an NHL player.  

I still like the ideas of Miller and Donskoi.  Are those 4 players enough?

Skinner EIchel Donskoi

Sheary Miller Reinhart

Nylander Mitts Olofsson

Erod Larsson Okposo

Sobotka

Thompson starts with the Amerks.

That is a really interesting lineup.  I like the kiddie corps 3rd line.  The top 2 lines would have some serious skill and force match up problems that should allow the kids to thrive, much like the 2005 Sabres with Vanek, Roy and Max as the 3rd line.  

I think that's unlikely to be a playoff team with those additions unless Mittelstadt takes a siginificant leap forward. Otherwise I'd be looking to add a more impactful 2C.