Forwards Next Year - Fixing the Middle Six

[GASabresIUFAN]

I think we can all agree that losing ROR has been a major blow to this team on the ice.  We can continue to debate the reasons for trading him, the proceeds and the merits of the move, but what is done is done.  

We have also debated the seasons Mitts, Thompson and Sheary have had trying to replace that production. 

I also researched the production of the top line and they are on pace to score 33 more goals then the top line did 2 years ago thanks to Skinner and the continued development of Eichel and Reinhart.  Add that to the improved offense from the back end and you have the entire improvement in our goals scored this season.

That means our next 9 forwards haven’t done the job overall.

So how does Jbot fix this problem with almost an entire roster of forwards under control or contract for next season.  

As I wrote in the cap thread the following forwards are under contract for next year: Jack, KO, Wilson, Sheary, Mitts, Tage, Sobotka and Reinhart.  Erod, Girgensons and Larsson are RFAs.  Top prospect Olofsson is also under contract.  Skinner is the only significant UFA and must (and will be) re-signed.  

In theory those 13 could easily be our forwards group next year.  Jbot could argue that continued development from Olofsson, Mitts and Thompson coupled with a full season of Erod as the 2nd line center should significantly improve the production from the middle six.  However, I don’t think that is how this plays out, although I do agree that Mitts breaks out next season if slotted correctly as the 3rd line center.

I don’t think the solution here is major upheaval.  I do think that Jbot will take a que from his replacement of Kane with Skinner and find us a true 2nd line center.  Duchene, Hayes and JT Miller top my list and I’m sure many others.   Miller may actually be the easiest to get since TB needs to move some bodies to sign Point and others.  The other advantage of getting Miller is that if Mitts develops into a true number 2, Miller also plays both wings.  

I think you add Miller (for example) and everyone starts slotting correctly.  

Skinner Eichel Reinhart

Sheary Miller Olofsson

Erod Mitts Thompson/Nylander

Girgensons Larsson KO

Sobatka

In the Defense thread we have discussed moving Risto to get Miller.  I want more than Miller for Ristolainen and TB would need to given us another contract to actually get the cap relief the need, but I’m not taking Callahan.  I would take Killhorn.

The other issues facing this group is whether they are physical enough and whether they are committed to playing the two way hockey HCPH’s system demands. I don’t know.  I hope Thompson  adds more physical play as he matures.  JT Miller adds size.  KO,if healthy, can play with an edge and I like what Girgensons and Larry bring as the 4th line.  KO’s health is also a concern going forward.  I actually think both he and the Sabres would be better off if he “retires.” 

[Carmel Corn]

You have to create some holes first before we can fix the problem.  The challenge is whether GMJB can make something happen with KO and Sobotka, who may be the consensus top two desired ex-Sabres by the fan base.  Hoping for something there, but good luck finding a dance partner to deal.  Wilson strikes me as more of a 4th liner vs. middle six.  

Second, finding that true 2C (vs. promoting somebody) is essential in order to make the playoffs in 2019/2020.  I don't think Mittelstadt will be there yet and it's not EROD either.

Tough challenge for GMJB to do both of these.  Can't get too excited personally for next year unless he can pull it off.

[dudacek]

That's a hope rebuild that looks an awful lot like this year's roster.

Olofsson would have to play like Brock Boeser for Sheary Miller Olofsson to be a decent second line. And the third line would be a disaster if we get this year's versions of those players. I'd like to acquire two Millers and challenge Mitts/Tage/Alex/Viktor to push past ERod and Sheary.

That said, big jumps from Mitts/Tage/Alex/Viktor seem to be what JBot is counting on given his emphasis on development.

[GASabresIUFAN]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

That's a hope rebuild that looks an awful lot like this year's roster.

Olofsson would have to play like Brock Boeser for Sheary Miller Olofsson to be a decent second line. And the third line would be a disaster if we get this year's versions of those players. I'd like to acquire two Millers and challenge Mitts/Tage/Alex/Viktor to push past ERod and Sheary.

That said, big jumps from Mitts/Tage/Alex/Viktor seem to be what JBot is counting on given his emphasis on development.

Yes, we are going to have to assume that Jbot expects year over year improvement from Mitts, Victor and Tage.  

I agree that the roster is similar except some major factors.  First, players are slotted into roles they should be playing and two, KO and Sobatka are demoted to roles where they can least hurt us. When your starting with essentially a complete forward group already for next season, I think it’s safe to assume that most of those players will return.  

The sad part is that if Jbot somehow managed to get a 2nd line center when Berglund went AWOL, I think we are in a playoff spot this season and we would have seen better production from Sheary and Mitts.  Sheary, like Skinner, needs a good center, and Mitts needed to be playing against other teams 3rd lines.

Edited March 1, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

Botterill emphasizing again with WGR right now on how improvement is going to have to come from young players already in our organization.

I chuckled when he referred again to Sam Reinhart as an example. Remember when we were talking about how Botterill never talked about Reinhart when he arrived?

[jad1]

20 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Botterill emphasizing again with WGR right now on how improvement is going to have to come from young players already in our organization.

I chuckled when he referred again to Sam Reinhart as an example. Remember when we were talking about how Botterill never talked about Reinhart when he arrived?

If this is truly his plan, this franchise is doomed.  There's a reason why a team like Toronto, who has a ton of self-grown talent on the team, signed the top FA last year.  Hopefully Botterill is only speaking idealistically here and not practically.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

11 minutes ago, jad1 said:

If this is truly his plan, this franchise is doomed.  There's a reason why a team like Toronto, who has a ton of self-grown talent on the team, signed the top FA last year.  Hopefully Botterill is only speaking idealistically here and not practically.

Because of his pajamas?

You build a team by developing within......THEN you add the veteran presence you need.

Botts isn't saying "To reach our ultimate goal we need..." but he's right that we need the improvement to come from within first. If Mitts doesn't improve nor Dahlin or any of the young core, do you think that just adding more older vets will make us win with them still in the line-up? Likely not. If anything those vets will become Berglund/ ROR 2.0.

[dudacek]

30 minutes ago, jad1 said:

If this is truly his plan, this franchise is doomed.  There's a reason why a team like Toronto, who has a ton of self-grown talent on the team, signed the top FA last year.  Hopefully Botterill is only speaking idealistically here and not practically.

He didn’t say he wasn’t going to make trades and sign free agents, he was basically saying why there is reason to hope.

He also suggested that any call-ups from roster would be about making the Sabres win now, as opposed to giving some youngster a taste of the NHL.

[jad1]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

He didn’t say he wasn’t going to make trades and sign free agents, he was basically saying why there is reason to hope.

He also suggested that any call-ups from roster would be about making the Sabres win now, as opposed to giving some youngster a taste of the NHL.

That makes sense, although I'm trying to figure out how Tage Thompson is helping them win now.

[dudacek]

If Okposo Roddrigues and Sheary play like that more often than not, we'd have a third line.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

If Okposo Roddrigues and Sheary play like that more often than not, we'd have a third line.

I think Erod gives this effort every night.  Sheary certainly was showing his old club something, but he does look so small out there.

 

[dudacek]

I tend to forget Okoposo has never been a big goal scorer, but he's averaged over 30 assists a season throughout his career. He even had 29 last year, with all his problems. Only 13 this year though. Maybe he's the one who is suffering from playing with players who can't finish.

Edited March 2, 2019 by dudacek

[jahnyc]

We need a lot of upgrades at forward, but it feels like the defense is more settled now, and has potential to be a strong unit next year, assuming that we do not trade Risto.

Our top line generally looks good.  The other three lines have all been disappointing.  I really hope that we see improvement with Mittlestadt, but I am not feeling confident about that at this point.  I also do not believe that we have much in Rochester that will be of immediate help next season, or maybe at all.  JBot has much work to do to fix the middle six without many easy answers.

[SABRES 0311]

4 hours ago, jahnyc said:

We need a lot of upgrades at forward, but it feels like the defense is more settled now, and has potential to be a strong unit next year, assuming that we do not trade Risto.

Our top line generally looks good.  The other three lines have all been disappointing.  I really hope that we see improvement with Mittlestadt, but I am not feeling confident about that at this point.  I also do not believe that we have much in Rochester that will be of immediate help next season, or maybe at all.  JBot has much work to do to fix the middle six without many easy answers.

I like Larry’s Line. They work hard and can generate Ozone time. Larry and Girgs do good on the PK.

[Sabre1974]

I'm just thinking is Botts hoping that ollofson is going to step up next season into the top 6 and does asplund come in at 3rd center? Casey stays 2nd?  Think he will still do a trade or free agency but to what extent??

[jsb]

Is it time to reconsider Reinhart at 2C and put Casey at 3C?? I wouldn't have thought so last year or even at the beginning of this year but he's improved so much that I wonder if the right move is that and try to find some wingers which would most likely be easier and less expensive in price and assets to do than finding a 2C. 

[Weave]

14 minutes ago, jsb said:

Is it time to reconsider Reinhart at 2C and put Casey at 3C?? I wouldn't have thought so last year or even at the beginning of this year but he's improved so much that I wonder if the right move is that and try to find some wingers which would most likely be easier and less expensive in price and assets to do than finding a 2C. 

Sam is an outstanding winger and we have too few of them.  I don't see the value in taking an outstanding winger and turning him into a mediocre center.  He is in his best position to succeed.

[Carmel Corn]

24 minutes ago, Weave said:

Sam is an outstanding winger and we have too few of them.  I don't see the value in taking an outstanding winger and turning him into a mediocre center.  He is in his best position to succeed.

Yes, leave Sam on wing.  This team needs a 2C badly.  Besides anchoring a second scoring line, we need another highly capable center in case Eichel gets injured.  It happens every year and when Eichel is out, the team struggles....no center depth to compensate.

[Torpedo Forecheck]

Reinhart is good as a winger. His skating is less than ideal for a second line center IMO.

[dudacek]

Not wanting to make this about Reinhart in particular, but do centres really have to be fast skaters? There seems to be this narrative that speed is a prerequisite for the position. Foot speed helps in every position, but it seems to be less crucial to centres than hands and positioning.

They rarely have to be the first guy to the puck on the forecheck. They rarely are the first guy leaving the zone on the breakout. They are less likely to be tasked with beating the guy to the outside, or stopping a guy from getting to the outside.

Generally, on defence, they are the second guy, the support guy. In transition, and on offence, their primary job is generally to handle and distribute the puck. There is a tendency to think about them as running backs - give them the puck and let them make plays - but they are more often quarterbacks, middle linebackers or safeties: reading the game and making the right plays. By definition a centre is in the middle of the ice, closer to the puck. He spends more time anticipating than chasing. He needs quick processing and a good first step and lateral mobility far more than flat out speed.

Guys like Lafontaine and Perreault could fly, but that’s only one way to play the position. Gretzky wasn’t fast. Before him, Phil Esposito was among the slowest players in the league. Lemieux was average. Hawerchuk the same. Turgeon. Briere.

McDavid and Crosby can kill you with speed, but it is their skill and their IQ that makes them centres. Matthews has speed, but he beats you by prowling the offensive zone like a shark. Toews, Kopitar, Benn, Sedin, Giroux, Tavares, Barkov, O’Reilly, Pavelski - none of those guys are particularly noted for their speed.

Johan Larsson might be our slowest player and he is a better centre than winger. Sheary is among our fastest and I can’t imagine him playing centre.

I understand the idea that you can hide a slow guy - a Justin Falk or a Ray Sheppard - on the D or on the wing, in a way that you can’t at centre. But their inability to play centre has more to do with their limited skill and hockey IQ than their lack of foot speed.

A centre does need to be fast, but with his brain far more than his feet.

Edited March 2, 2019 by dudacek

[Weave]

I can’t put ny finger on it, but Sams game just didn’t show well from center.  His effectiveness goes way up with a wall on his right. 

Total throwing ***** at a wall, but maybe his vision and awareness is more right justified?  Is it that simple?

[dudacek]

Sam got two stints at centre, no?

Early in his rookie year and early last year - both on the 3rd line and both for maybe 15 games, with guys like Griffith and Pouliot on his wings?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

26 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Sam got two stints at centre, no?

Early in his rookie year and early last year - both on the 3rd line and both for maybe 15 games, with guys like Griffith and Pouliot on his wings?

I believe this to be the case, with maybe a shift, or period thrown in.

Not really enough time to really judge and to see if he can develop as a centre.

The problem is he seems to be a more natural RW at the NHL level.  Which is great, but I would like to really know if he could be a centre too.

[erickompositör72]

Sam never played center since his 2018 "awakening"

Also, I don't think Sam is a worse skater than ROR

[Kruppstahl]

Botterill is giving old Darcy Regier a run for his money in terms of slow, patient development, with supreme belief in "his guys" to get the job done.  His slow and steady approach is going to be a failure.

If we are ever good, guys like Eichel will have survived through so many lean years at this pace, they will be turned off of this organization.

I'm not advocating jeopardizing the long term future of the team for a really short term gain; I'm advocating moving a little quicker than J Bots feels comfortable doing.  He has to speed it up.