2019 Off Season

[Curt]

What if there are no other big moves this offseason?  No big trade to acquire a top-6 forward.  What would everyone’s reaction be?

I believe that Botterill wants to trade Risto, but what if the good deal he is looking for just doesn’t materialize this summer?  What if it doesn’t materialize until mid season?  I feel like Botterill is pretty patient so I could see it happening.  Just curious about how everyone would handle that.

[triumph_communes]

54 minutes ago, Curt said:

What if there are no other big moves this offseason?  No big trade to acquire a top-6 forward.  What would everyone’s reaction be?

I believe that Botterill wants to trade Risto, but what if the good deal he is looking for just doesn’t materialize this summer?  What if it doesn’t materialize until mid season?  I feel like Botterill is pretty patient so I could see it happening.  Just curious about how everyone would handle that.

 

Great off-season, and something’s going to give when Pilut and Bogosian come off IR

[Sabres Fan in NS]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

What if there are no other big moves this offseason?  No big trade to acquire a top-6 forward.  What would everyone’s reaction be?

I believe that Botterill wants to trade Risto, but what if the good deal he is looking for just doesn’t materialize this summer?  What if it doesn’t materialize until mid season?  I feel like Botterill is pretty patient so I could see it happening.  Just curious about how everyone would handle that.

I am fine with it.  I am in the camp that does not want Risto traded.  That's not to say that I would not welcome it if it improved the team in an area of need, which is a top 6 forward, preferably a centre, but not absolutely a requirement.

[dudacek]

6 hours ago, Curt said:

What if there are no other big moves this offseason?  

Then we listen to the best press conferences a Sabres coach has hosted since Lindy, pray hard for Casey Mittelstadt to make a huge leap, and enjoy the best defence corps this team has iced since it wore black red and silver.

Edited July 18, 2019 by dudacek

[Thorner]

6 hours ago, Curt said:

What if there are no other big moves this offseason?  No big trade to acquire a top-6 forward.  What would everyone’s reaction be?

I believe that Botterill wants to trade Risto, but what if the good deal he is looking for just doesn’t materialize this summer?  What if it doesn’t materialize until mid season?  I feel like Botterill is pretty patient so I could see it happening.  Just curious about how everyone would handle that.

Depends how Johansson does at 2C, then..

My line for Botterill remains playoffs or playoff bubble, if he fails to adequately address the centre ice position and he falls short of this, it's all the more reason to give him less benefit of the doubt. 

Edited July 18, 2019 by Thorny

[Tondas]

6 hours ago, Curt said:

What if there are no other big moves this offseason?  No big trade to acquire a top-6 forward.  What would everyone’s reaction be?

I believe that Botterill wants to trade Risto, but what if the good deal he is looking for just doesn’t materialize this summer?  What if it doesn’t materialize until mid season?  I feel like Botterill is pretty patient so I could see it happening.  Just curious about how everyone would handle that.

I would be disappointed but I don't think it will come to that.  I do like what JBOT has done thus far, but not securing a top 6 is glaring.  Risto is the best asset to sell to get a top 6.   Risto is not going to have a break out season.  He is what he is going to be (not saying he is a bad player).  With the influx of defensemen that JBOT brought in, I find it hard to believe that he doesn't have a deal or 2 regarding Risto worked out and is just waiting for the RFA stuff to clear before pulling the trigger.

[Huckleberry]

Thing about Jbot is, he runs a tight ship, not many rumours come out.   But I expect him to surprise us some more.

[dudacek]

Sabres moves make them the sixth-most improved team according to the analytics of the Athletic’s Dom Luszcyszyn.

https://theathletic.com/1084921/2019/07/19/how-much-has-each-team-improved-this-offseason/

Not that big a deal when you realize that translates to 2 wins, while the Rangers and Panthers added about 6 and Columbus was only team in the conference that made an appreciable drop.

 

Edited July 19, 2019 by dudacek

[WildCard]

20 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Sabres moves make the the sixth-most improved team according to the analytics of the Athletic’s Dom Luszcyszyn.

https://theathletic.com/1084921/2019/07/19/how-much-has-each-team-improved-this-offseason/

Not that big a deal when you realize that translates to 2 wins, while the Rangers and Panthers added about 6 and Columbus was only team in the conference that made an appreciable drop.

I like the idea behind that but there's just no way we win only 2 more games this year

[Randall Flagg]

5 minutes ago, WildCard said:

I like the idea behind that but there's just no way we win only 2 more games this year

I can see a million ways in which this is an ~80 point team...in fact I think that's my default guess looking at the current roster.

[WildCard]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

I can see a million ways in which this is an ~80 point team...in fact I think that's my default guess looking at the current roster.

The problem is the 10 game win streak. Realistically we were a ~65 point team, and I don't think we're anywhere near that mark again. We're improved across the board 

[Randall Flagg]

3 minutes ago, WildCard said:

The problem is the 10 game win streak. Realistically we were a ~65 point team, and I don't think we're anywhere near that mark again. We're improved across the board 

I'm a bit confused - I can totally see acquisitions of Miller, Johansson, and Vesey roughly meaning two wins more. Youre saying you think it's way more than even that? These guys range from meh to solid, there's nothing super huge there 

[WildCard]

Just now, Randall Flagg said:

I'm a bit confused - I can totally see acquisitions of Miller, Johansson, and Vesey roughly meaning two wins more. Youre saying you think it's way more than even that? These guys range from meh to solid, there's nothing super huge there 

The improvement of Dahlin, Reinhart (smaller), and Mittelstadt. Not playing Sobotka/Tage all year, new head coach, revamped defense

I think all of that is worth more than 2 more wins. My issue is, the games we did win last year were largely flukes; I think we win more games this year, and in a more satisfying/complete way

[Randall Flagg]

3 minutes ago, WildCard said:

The improvement of Dahlin, Reinhart (smaller), and Mittelstadt. Not playing Sobotka/Tage all year, new head coach, revamped defense

I think all of that is worth more than 2 more wins. My issue is, the games we did win last year were largely flukes; I think we win more games this year, and in a more satisfying/complete way

I'm only reasonably confident in Dahlin improving in a standings-meaningful way among those three players, I'm not convinced we won't be seeing plenty of either of 17/72, and new head coach might not be any good at coaching hockey, so it's a bit tough to buy into all of that at once and assume huge improvement from a supposed 65 point baseline.

In fact Ralph seems like the exact kind of guy to try and 'get more out of' a European like Sobotka

The Sabres as it stands still do not have a second line to compete with those in the east, and still have goalies that were problematic, and stand as good of chance at getting a slumping Skinner as they did to get the one they got last year. There are an impossible amount of things to take into account, but assuming everything is average this just looks like a low-80s point roster to me as it stands. 

I'll happily revisit when we pull off the blockbuster for awesome 2C

[Randall Flagg]

Here's a ridiculously crude and ill-advised way of using WAR/GAR stats for our offseason additions.

The additions of Miller, Joki (added later, not in picture), Johansson, Vesey total 2 overall goals above replacement over an entire season based on their previous seasons. Considering that not all of the players they'll be "replacing" are guaranteed to be replacement level players, the number might not even be that high. 

Of course, this is exactly NOT how to use advanced stats, I'm just messing around and having some fun, but the general idea here is that even with the cascading effects this has on the lineup underneath these players, the likely presence of the forwards on lines 2 or 3 anyway kind of limit how effective the improvement will be (as in we're not replacing bad top line players with great ones, we're replacing bad-to-meh middle six players with meh-to-solid ones), along with the fact that they're just solid players, and not anything particularly groundbreaking. It's tough to tie the additions themselves into a meaningful standings increase, particularly when you can go through most eastern teams and see just as much if not more roster improvement based solely on net player flux into the organization (in particular, teams we're battling with like Florida, NYR, PHI, and NJD). 

lol, for what it's worth, the total WAR/82 for the players listed above is -2.26. Again, this is ridiculously simplistic, and shouldn't be written down in ink or anything. 

Now, where can we realistically expect Dahlin to be next season? I don't have any idea. I picture a stronger man who is more confident in himself, makes fewer of those gaffes, contributes to fewer empty net goals against, is stronger in his own zone, and is capable of ~50-55 points. I'm not sure what this is worth in the standings when it's on the ice for about a third of the game, but I don't think it'd be more than a handful of standings points over what he contributed last year, which was quite good already. 

Mitts? I'm not comfortable projecting any notable growth onto him that would impact standings position, which is not the same thing as saying I don't think he'll be better. I just don't think, in the position he's likely to be in, that he's ready to contribute more than the average player in that position will to their team in 2019-20. 

If Reinhart gets used with Mitts, I can see the combined duo benefiting the team more than Sam with Jack and poor Mitts left mostly alone would, but I'm not comfortable putting meaningful standings improvement with that bit of change either, also, I'll believe a good Sabres coaching decision will be made when I see it. A few points here or there maybe.

The defensive depth, to me, is the most meaningful place we've improved this offseason. All it will take to gash into that, though, is the simple vet-deference we've seen a million times dictating that a Scandella play a big role with a Ristolainen or something, and sticking with it far longer than we should, which again is something this franchise has been more inclined to do than to not do recently, no matter how obviously bad the results are for how long. I hope they ice the best six, whoever they wind up being, but I'm not going to assume it'll happen. Of course, it's possible that Marco bounces back and IS one of those best six, but his three year trend is consistent and doesn't point to that happening. We'll see. If the best case scenario happens with the current defensive roster, I can see a bottom-of-the-middle-third/top-of-the-bottom-third unit turning into a unit ranked 9th-12th, which might be good for a few wins in the standings. Taking everything combined gets my guess from a roster I consider a 70-75 point one last year (pulling that range from my preseason prediction) to a 80-82 point one now. 

But Jason isn't done yet and as always I could be full of ***** here, so who knows!

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I'm only reasonably confident in Dahlin improving in a standings-meaningful way among those three players, I'm not convinced we won't be seeing plenty of either of 17/72, and new head coach might not be any good at coaching hockey, so it's a bit tough to buy into all of that at once and assume huge improvement from a supposed 65 point baseline.

In fact Ralph seems like the exact kind of guy to try and 'get more out of' a European like Sobotka

The Sabres as it stands still do not have a second line to compete with those in the east, and still have goalies that were problematic, and stand as good of chance at getting a slumping Skinner as they did to get the one they got last year. There are an impossible amount of things to take into account, but assuming everything is average this just looks like a low-80s point roster to me as it stands. 

I'll happily revisit when we pull off the blockbuster for awesome 2C

However, Dahlin 2.0, Montour, Miller and maybe Jokiharju and Pilut marks a stylistic sea change.

How good they are, and how successful Krueger is at deploying them will be interesting to watch.

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, dudacek said:

However, Dahlin 2.0, Montour, Miller and maybe Jokiharju and Pilut marks a stylistic sea change.

How good they are, and how successful Krueger is at deploying them will be interesting to watch.

How much of those guys do you predict we see this year? I wonder if a numbers game (and Pilut's shoulder) puts them in Rochester most of the year.

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

How much of those guys do you predict we see this year? I wonder if a numbers game (and Pilut's shoulder) puts them in Rochester most of the year.

Depends on trades and their development, but personally I expect your Roch scenario.

I like Pilut, but I think his strength will always be an issue, similar to ERod.

Jokiharju is a good test of the “fan bases versus GMs” argument. If he’s as skilled as the Hawk fans think, he should be playing from day one and pushing the top four. If he’s what Stan Bowman thinks, we might not see him at all. I’m sceptical, but I haven’t seen him play much.

Edited July 19, 2019 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Depends on trades and their development, but personally I expect your Roch scenario.

I like Pilut, but I think his strength will always be an issue, similar to ERod.

Jokiharju is a good test of the “fan bases versus GMs” argument. If he’s as skilled as the Hawk fans think, he should be playing from day one and pushing the top four. If he’s what Stan Bowman thinks, we might not see him at all. I’m sceptical, but I haven’t seen him play much.

All we'll get to see is preseason games too - if Joki looks as good as Tage did last year, and goes to Rochester, us fans will probably be angry, even though Tage's excellent preseason didn't translate to the regular one. It'll be fun to follow for sure.

[triumph_communes]

People take fancy stats that only explain 11% of the variation between Ovechkin goal totals versus than Jimmy Vesey's totals waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too far.

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, triumph_communes said:

People take fancy stats that only explain 11% of the variation between Ovechkin goal totals versus than Jimmy Vesey's totals waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too far.

Lol, if you're referring to me, I plainly qualified about four times that what I was doing was essentially garbage and way outside the bounds of what those stats claim to do

[...]

5 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

People take fancy stats that only explain 11% of the variation between Ovechkin goal totals versus than Jimmy Vesey's totals waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too far.

[triumph_communes]

Just now, Randall Flagg said:

Lol, if you're referring to me, I plainly qualified about four times that what I was doing was essentially garbage and way outside the bounds of what those stats claim to do

I'm more referring to the articles these Athletic writers keep churning out trying to do statistics with their journalism degrees from community colleges, completely missing the big picture from the weeds they have their magnifying glass set on to the point they're burning holes into it.  "Find out whether analytics says your team got better or not" is a notification the Athletic just sent me.  It's awful journalism.

[WildCard]

19 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

I'm more referring to the articles these Athletic writers keep churning out trying to do statistics with their journalism degrees from community colleges, completely missing the big picture from the weeds they have their magnifying glass set on to the point they're burning holes into it.  "Find out whether analytics says your team got better or not" is a notification the Athletic just sent me.  It's awful journalism.

It's a hell of a lot better than whatever the ***** ESPN puts out today. No, I don't give two shits that LeBron got his hair cut or someone said something about the bad orange man

Edited July 19, 2019 by WildCard

[pi2000]

Anybody concerned about goaltending?

Hutton, IMO, is not a starter... Ullmark has even more question marks.    Still think they need to make a move at that position to compete with Hutton and Ullmark in camp.   Hammond?  Meh