2019 Off Season

[Curt]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Sobotka could be bought out.  Hunwick could easily be demoted to the minors. These moves may not be necessary for cap reasons, but to make roster spots for better players.

To ditch Sobotka, a better move would probably be to just waive him to the AHL.  He would most likely just head back to Russia rather than report to Rochester.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, Curtisp5286 said:

To ditch Sobotka, a better move would probably be to just waive him to the AHL.  He would most likely just head back to Russia rather than report to Rochester.  

The math on that is interesting.  Waive Sobotka costs us $3 mill in real $ for one season, but we get cap relief of about 1 million this season leaving a cap cost of about $2.5 this year.  Buy out actually costs us only $2 mill in real $ and we get a cap hits of 1.5 and 1.0 over this year and next.  

It's a real close call.  I suspect that buy him out to get the roster spot both here and Rochester and to save the $.    

[Curt]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The math on that is interesting.  Waive Sobotka costs us $3 mill in real $ for one season, but we get cap relief of about 1 million this season leaving a cap cost of about $2.5 this year.  Buy out actually costs us only $2 mill in real $ and we get a cap hits of 1.5 and 1.0 over this year and next.  

It's a real close call.  I suspect that buy him out to get the roster spot both here and Rochester and to save the $.    

That’s only if he actually reports to the AHL.  If he leaves for KHL instead, cost is $0.

[Thorner]

Question: Woke Sabres twitter seems to have a consensus that our right side D would be good to go heading into the season sans Riso (trade) with no additions made. What say you, Sabrespace?

[thewookie1]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Question: Woke Sabres twitter seems to have a consensus that our right side D would be good to go heading into the season sans Riso (trade) with no additions made. What say you, Sabrespace?

God they are nuts

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, Curtisp5286 said:

To ditch Sobotka, a better move would probably be to just waive him to the AHL.  He would most likely just head back to Russia rather than report to Rochester.  

There is NFW that Sobotka walks away from $3MM to go make $125K in the KHL.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, nfreeman said:

There is NFW that Sobotka walks away from $3MM to go make $125K in the KHL.

We thought that also about Berglund, but I agree with you.

@Curtisp5286There are complicated rules regarding players being loaned to the KHL or any European League.  Like a demotion to the AHL, the Sabres would get 1.075 in cap relief.  I think we'd also be responsible for his entire salary.

[PalmTreeMafia]

3 hours ago, LTS said:

So, you don't buy into his explanation that he wanted to stock the lower tiers of talent first and begin to create a level of competition there before letting players make it up to the big club?

That's what you get with players like Girgensons, Larsson, and Nelson.

Okposo and Bogosian are not his contracts but the only way those contracts move is if you can package them up with a super prospect or a top pick in the draft.  The Sabres are lacking those pieces so how did you expect him to move them?  Hell, Bogosian has the injury problems, so it's unlikely anyone is taking him.  So, that really leaves Okposo.  What do the Sabres have to throw into the deal to get him off the roster?  When they do that, are they better or worse because they've now lost that piece in addition to Okposo?

As for Pominville, a $1M contract to add depth to the organization wouldn't be the end of the world right now.  It's unlikely he's going to go anywhere else next season.  So, the Sabres can talk to him and he can accept that he's the outgoing piece on the only team that will take him.  At $1M, even if he ends up in Rochester, it's money well spent.

I'll address your points in order:

1. No, I don't buy into that explanation at all. JB should have been simultaneously improving the big club while also improving the lower tiers of talent. He doesn't need to do the latter first before addressing the former. He couldn't have found better alternatives to Girgensons and Larsson at any point during these past two miserable seasons? Both have been with the Sabres for 6 seasons (and Casey for 4). How much more time is needed to evaluate these players? 

2. Okposo and Bogosian could have been traded for other salary cap burdens on other teams in "change-of-scenery" situations that could potentially benefit all involved in such trades. My issue with these two has always been less about their ridiculous contracts and more about the "A" each wears on their jersey. Both have been a part of the older veteran leadership group for the past three seasons in which the Sabres have horribly underachieved and managed to get two coaches fired. Neither did anything to elevate or motivate the rest of the team when difficult times arose. We quickly got rid of O'Reilly for being so dejected at the end of last season, so why not these two losers?

3. The main issue with keeping Pominville would be him taking up a roster spot better reserved for one of our many young forward prospects. And if it's veteran depth we want, why not someone else from one of the 30 other teams in the league? Preferably somone with a known history of quality leadership? Pominville has been associated with underachieving teams for his entire career. Nice player, solid career, but he does nothing to improve the losing culture here in Buffalo.

Look, I'm not losing sleep over JB's individual decisions to potentially extend Pominville, Girgensons, and Larsson or keep Bogosian, Okposo, and Nelson. You could make a case for a positive on-ice contribution from each one of these players. Even I have done this in the past for some of these guys. But collectively, these decisions represent greater problems with JB's tenure as GM: he's too slow to make decisions, doesn't seem to have a coherent plan on what kind of team he wants to build here, and doesn't know how to fix the diseased locker room culture that persists post-O'Reilly/Kane/Lehner.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I think Jbot had two different goals in his first two off-seasons.  Off-season No.1 was to get us out from under the Cap hell created by TM.  In off-season two he wanted to get younger and also hopefully start getting better.  The ROR deal had to be TP giving Jbot some very specific marching orders from which Jbot had to try to make lemonade.  I also personally believe that Jbot failed to properly support the team last season after Berglund walked.  Despite his not being the contributor Jbot wanted, the team was never the same after he left.   The Montour deal, while a very nice piece, was to little to late and didn't really address the D-Zone coverage issues that plagued the team in the second half.  

Still there has been much to like about Jbot's tenure so far.

1) We are in a great position cap wise to keep our talent and add through trades and free agency

2) We finally have some significant pieces of a good core - Jack, Jeff, Sam, Dahlin, Montour, Mitts and I think maybe Risto if slotted and coached correctly.

3) Our pipeline has some real talent in it especially on D with some capable mid lineup forwards and one spectacular goaltender.

4) Rochester has gone from being a nothing, to again being a top AHL franchise and a place to develop talent.  

I will agree that this is a critical season for the Sabres and Jbot.  We need to take a significant step forward this year; either playoffs or very close.  The Avs had 90 points last year scoring 258 goals while allowing 244.  The Sabres finished with 221 for and 268 against.  To achieve what the Avs did, we'll need to improve our offense about 15% and our Defense/Goaltending by about 12%.

My penciled in roster so far is

Skinner Jack Olofsson

????   ?????   Reinhart

Sheary Mitts Nylander/Thompson

Wilson Erod Smith/Thompson

Dahlin ?????

McCabe  Montour

Pilut Bogosian

Hunwick Nelson

Hutton Ullmark 

Players to be moved out, traded or demoted, Sobotka, Scandella, Ristolainen.  Possible Players In:  JT Miller, Marcus Johansson, Donskoi, or even Alex Martinex.

[Curt]

7 hours ago, nfreeman said:

There is NFW that Sobotka walks away from $3MM to go make $125K in the KHL.

Do you know how much Sobotka was making in the KHL before he decided to return to the NHL a couple of years ago?  The answer is $3M.  The better players over there make a lot of money.

[Curt]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

We thought that also about Berglund, but I agree with you.

@Curtisp5286There are complicated rules regarding players being loaned to the KHL or any European League.  Like a demotion to the AHL, the Sabres would get 1.075 in cap relief.  I think we'd also be responsible for his entire salary.

Yeah, if he goes to AHL or is loaned to another team, the cap relief is only partial (like in Moulson’s case).  

However, I believe that if Buffalo tries to send him to the AHL, there is a good chance that he decides to quite on the Sabres and go play in the KHL instead.  This would void his contract and Buffalo would be off the hook.  Right?

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, Curtisp5286 said:

Yeah, if he goes to AHL or is loaned to another team, the cap relief is only partial (like in Moulson’s case).  

However, I believe that if Buffalo tries to send him to the AHL, there is a good chance that he decides to quite on the Sabres and go play in the KHL instead.  This would void his contract and Buffalo would be off the hook.  Right?

Possibly, but he won’t do a Berglund.  He’ll take his money especially if he get back to Europe on a loan instead. 

[Zamboni]

I can’t see JB moving Risto AND Scandella in one off season. That’s too much depth. Have your feelings about those players, but it’s too much depth to lose in one season.

I think JB wants to see what RK can do with Risto and Scandella before moving them off the roster. Unless of course he gets a good offer for either one. 

Housleys management of the roster have really skewed some fans perception of some of the talent on this team.

[Taro T]

12 hours ago, Thorny said:

Question: Woke Sabres twitter seems to have a consensus that our right side D would be good to go heading into the season sans Riso (trade) with no additions made. What say you, Sabrespace?

Well, if Ristolainen gets moved & the 2RD slot isn't replaced via trade or FA then this D is marginally better than what started last season.  That wasn't good enough.  Does marginally better = good enough?

If they have to move Ristolainen to obtain either 2C or 2RW, really want that back filled.  The 2C they bring in can be an older guy with a short shelf life because they only need him to stay 2C for 2 seasons.  Really hope Ristolainen doesn't go out in that package.

2RW is likely a longer term need, but should be cheaper than a C will be; so don't know that Ristolain has to go to fill that one either.  Bogosian injury is sooooo frustrating (though expected) because HE could've been part of the package for the RW.

[dudacek]

I think we are going to see two moves of significance: a trade involving futures and cap space, and/or a UFA signing,  neither of which will bring in a star, each of which will add a quality player to our forward depth.

It is the type of thinking that was behind the Montour deal and why I now think it is unlikely Risto will be dealt.

Botterill spoke of it during his Skinner conference call, and not for the first time: we need to add to our cast of good players, not replace them.

Think JT Miller or Kyle Turris or Cody Eakin and Jordan Eberle or Joonas Donskoi or Colin Wilson.

[Drunkard]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think we are going to see two moves of significance: a trade involving futures and cap space, and/or a UFA signing,  neither of which will bring in a star, each of which will add a quality player to our forward depth.

It is the type of thinking that was behind the Montour deal and why I now think it is unlikely Risto will be dealt.

Botterill spoke of it during his Skinner conference call, and not for the first time: we need to add to our cast of good players, not replace them.

Think JT Miller or Kyle Turris or Cody Eakin and Jordan Eberle or Joonas Donskoi or Colin Wilson.

I've been vehemently opposed to trading Ristolainen for a mediocre #2 center, but I wouldn't be opposed to picking up a guy like JT Miller if we could get him for cheap. It looks like half of the Tampa D are pending UFAs, maybe we could help their cap out and give them a 1 year stop gag defenseman by taking Miller and Callahan off their hands (about $11 million in combined cap space) in exchange for someone like Scandella or Bogosian.

[LTS]

11 hours ago, Marchand'sNose said:

I'll address your points in order:

1. No, I don't buy into that explanation at all. JB should have been simultaneously improving the big club while also improving the lower tiers of talent. He doesn't need to do the latter first before addressing the former. He couldn't have found better alternatives to Girgensons and Larsson at any point during these past two miserable seasons? Both have been with the Sabres for 6 seasons (and Casey for 4). How much more time is needed to evaluate these players? 

2. Okposo and Bogosian could have been traded for other salary cap burdens on other teams in "change-of-scenery" situations that could potentially benefit all involved in such trades. My issue with these two has always been less about their ridiculous contracts and more about the "A" each wears on their jersey. Both have been a part of the older veteran leadership group for the past three seasons in which the Sabres have horribly underachieved and managed to get two coaches fired. Neither did anything to elevate or motivate the rest of the team when difficult times arose. We quickly got rid of O'Reilly for being so dejected at the end of last season, so why not these two losers?

3. The main issue with keeping Pominville would be him taking up a roster spot better reserved for one of our many young forward prospects. And if it's veteran depth we want, why not someone else from one of the 30 other teams in the league? Preferably somone with a known history of quality leadership? Pominville has been associated with underachieving teams for his entire career. Nice player, solid career, but he does nothing to improve the losing culture here in Buffalo.

Look, I'm not losing sleep over JB's individual decisions to potentially extend Pominville, Girgensons, and Larsson or keep Bogosian, Okposo, and Nelson. You could make a case for a positive on-ice contribution from each one of these players. Even I have done this in the past for some of these guys. But collectively, these decisions represent greater problems with JB's tenure as GM: he's too slow to make decisions, doesn't seem to have a coherent plan on what kind of team he wants to build here, and doesn't know how to fix the diseased locker room culture that persists post-O'Reilly/Kane/Lehner.

So, you assume, there's a "someone" for each of the situations above you use that word as the solution.

Who are the better alternatives to Girgensons and Larsson that they could acquire or sign for a similar cap hit and contract?  No one said they need to evaluate them.  They need a body in the position to allow others to develop in other positions.  So, you ask the question, but have you looked to see if there was, in fact, any other player they could have acquired to replace Girgensons, Larsson, and Nelson that would have definitively improved the team? 

Neither Okposo nor Bogosian have come across as dejected like O'Reilly.  O'Reilly does not have any of the injury history of Okposo or Bogosian.  The situations are so far different from each other than it's not possible to use one to argue the other. If you look at what Okposo and Bogosian have said in interviews, their words are accurate with regards to what a leader should be saying.  The fact that someone doesn't listen is not always the fault of those who are speaking.  And again, who are you pairing up with Okposo and Bogosian to overcome their injury history/lack of production/poor contract, so that another team will take them? O'Reilly had none of those concerns.

Pominville - wow.  So, yes, let's hypothetically go out and acquire that great leader on a $1M/1 year contract.  You ignored my comment that you could bury him in Rochester as a leader down there so that doesn't take up a roster spot either.  Pominville has been on teams that have not won, that doesn't make him a bad player.  Clearly your argument is excellent though because we'd say the same thing about: Daniel Alfredsson, Pavel Bure, Dino Cicarelli, Marcel Dionne, Mike Gartner, Dale Hawerchuk, Pat LaFontaine, Henrik Lundqvist, Cam Neely, Adam Oates, Mats Sundin... the list of players goes on who've barely sniffed a shot at a Stanley Cup.  Do they suck?  

Botterill has clearly stated his plan to build this team.  He's stated it over and over again. If you aren't listening, it's not his fault.  You may not agree with it, but our lack of understanding doesn't mean he doesn't know what he's doing. 

[North Buffalo]

Man I'd take Johansen in a heart beat, is he a UFA? yup  

[Broken Ankles]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Possibly, but he won’t do a Berglund.  He’ll take his money especially if he get back to Europe on a loan instead. 

I’ve argued that Vlad will be a buyout for three months now with more knowledgeable that I arguing for a waive/bury option.  We will see on June 15th.   Cap Space this year is more important than next with Bogo et al coming off books.   I’ll maintain the Buyout route is  best and what’s JB actually does. 

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

I’ve argued that Vlad will be a buyout for three months now with more knowledgeable that I arguing for a waive/bury option.  We will see on June 15th.   Cap Space this year is more important than next with Bogo et al coming off books.   I’ll maintain the Buyout route is  best and what’s JB actually does. 

We have 20million in cap space with Larsson, Erod, Zemgus, Ullmark, and McCabe the only players to sign. Buying him out makes 0 sense. We don't need the space so why tie yourself to him for another year. Burying him saves almost as much against the cap. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

We have 20million in cap space with Larsson, Erod, Zemgus, Ullmark, and McCabe the only players to sign. Buying him out makes 0 sense. We don't need the space so why tie yourself to him for another year. Burying him saves almost as much against the cap. 

The buy out gives that same cap hit spread over two years and saves $1 mil actual $.  Also right now we don’t know what or not we’ll need the extra savings this year’s depending on what else we do. 

As to Hunwick, I think waivers is the better option.  

Edited June 10, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[Broken Ankles]

16 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

We have 20million in cap space with Larsson, Erod, Zemgus, Ullmark, and McCabe the only players to sign. Buying him out makes 0 sense. We don't need the space so why tie yourself to him for another year. Burying him saves almost as much against the cap. 

If a Callahan cap trade happens the extra $2m will benefit the team far better than $900 savings you get to bury.  And a $1m hit next year will be insignificant with so many others coming off.  And to GA’s point the real savings is $1,000,000. If the Sabres utilize the space great, if not save 12% of Ops Expense from the P&L.  Hunwicks saving is only $580k and another $1m in space this year.  I could see him being moved in a deal where we overpay a bit or buried.  

[nfreeman]

7 hours ago, Curtisp5286 said:

Do you know how much Sobotka was making in the KHL before he decided to return to the NHL a couple of years ago?  The answer is $3M.  The better players over there make a lot of money.

Wow.  I looked for KHL salary data and couldn't find anything later than 2016 -- and there is Sobotka, sitting pretty at #4 in the entire league!  https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/khl-contract-salaries-highest-paid-datsyuk-radulov-kovalchuk-kontinental-hockey-league/

Having said that, I've read several times more recently that the KHL is struggling financially and that lower-tier players don't make much $$.  So while you were right about Sobotka getting paid in his prior stint there, I do think he'd be looking at much less than $3MM per year now (and probably less than $1MM per year).

 

[Curt]

43 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Wow.  I looked for KHL salary data and couldn't find anything later than 2016 -- and there is Sobotka, sitting pretty at #4 in the entire league!  https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/khl-contract-salaries-highest-paid-datsyuk-radulov-kovalchuk-kontinental-hockey-league/

Having said that, I've read several times more recently that the KHL is struggling financially and that lower-tier players don't make much $$.  So while you were right about Sobotka getting paid in his prior stint there, I do think he'd be looking at much less than $3MM per year now (and probably less than $1MM per year).

 

That's entirely possible.  I don't really know his KHL market.  However he produced quite well during his time in the KHL, so even though his reputation in the NHL is not strong, he may still be highly regarded in Russia.

[PalmTreeMafia]

2 hours ago, LTS said:

So, you assume, there's a "someone" for each of the situations above you use that word as the solution.

Who are the better alternatives to Girgensons and Larsson that they could acquire or sign for a similar cap hit and contract?  No one said they need to evaluate them.  They need a body in the position to allow others to develop in other positions.  So, you ask the question, but have you looked to see if there was, in fact, any other player they could have acquired to replace Girgensons, Larsson, and Nelson that would have definitively improved the team? 

Neither Okposo nor Bogosian have come across as dejected like O'Reilly.  O'Reilly does not have any of the injury history of Okposo or Bogosian.  The situations are so far different from each other than it's not possible to use one to argue the other. If you look at what Okposo and Bogosian have said in interviews, their words are accurate with regards to what a leader should be saying.  The fact that someone doesn't listen is not always the fault of those who are speaking.  And again, who are you pairing up with Okposo and Bogosian to overcome their injury history/lack of production/poor contract, so that another team will take them? O'Reilly had none of those concerns.

Pominville - wow.  So, yes, let's hypothetically go out and acquire that great leader on a $1M/1 year contract.  You ignored my comment that you could bury him in Rochester as a leader down there so that doesn't take up a roster spot either.  Pominville has been on teams that have not won, that doesn't make him a bad player.  Clearly your argument is excellent though because we'd say the same thing about: Daniel Alfredsson, Pavel Bure, Dino Cicarelli, Marcel Dionne, Mike Gartner, Dale Hawerchuk, Pat LaFontaine, Henrik Lundqvist, Cam Neely, Adam Oates, Mats Sundin... the list of players goes on who've barely sniffed a shot at a Stanley Cup.  Do they suck?  

Botterill has clearly stated his plan to build this team.  He's stated it over and over again. If you aren't listening, it's not his fault.  You may not agree with it, but our lack of understanding doesn't mean he doesn't know what he's doing. 

 

1. I'm not even going to bother listing specific 4th line alternatives to Girgensons and Larsson. If you think those two were the best JB could do these past two years in terms of on-ice production, off-ice leadership, and cap hit...

2. So maybe part of the problem with Okposo and Bogosian in the locker room was that neither ever really felt as dejected as O'Reilly? Seems like too many guys on the Sabres were okay enough with losing. I already said how to get rid of these two: trade our trash for someone else's trash. Change of scenery for both parties. No valuable prospects or high picks need to be included from either side.

3. I just don't see the value of keeping Pominville here any longer, and it has little to do with cap number or contract length or even the roster spot at this point. As a vet, he has already shown here in Buffalo (twice, really) to be incapable of motivating younger players around him. Find someone else who maybe can.

4. If you know JB's clearly stated plan, can you just reiterate it for me here real quick? Is it: build a team that's fast and skilled but physically weak and mentally even weaker? Is it: continue to make no effort to fill glaring roster holes with the big club so to accumulate lottery picks? Is it: focus on player development in Rochester so that these players will be able to carry the Sabres to their first playoff appearance since 2011 about 5 years from now? Is it: completely bomb with your first choice of a head coach hire so to set the stage for RK? Is it: trade away one of the best two-way centers in the game so to secure the next Ales Kotalik?

It's very depressing to see the contortions fellow Sabres fans are making to justify Botterill. I know it sucks to think that Pegula possibly made yet ANOTHER terrible GM hire, but so far it's looking like that's a distinct possibility, so let's at least type candidly about it on an internet message board. The positive news (IMO) is that there is still time this summer to make a successful course correction. The Skinner trade and re-signing was solid. The Amerks are looking healthy. There is nothing objectionable to RK or the past two drafts at the moment. There is a decent core of young talent in place. But for the love of God, JB needs to be aggressive this summer and find two top-6 forwards, move out the roster dead weight, and have a successful 2019 draft. His job depends on it. If the Sabres can't even get back to the Bylsma level of 78-81 points this season, JB might not be given a 4th year. If the Sabres don't make the playoffs by April 2021, no way does he stick around beyond that point.