Cap Picture for 2019-20 after the Deadline and what’s next.

[...]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 Think Skinner light.  What has Skinner done now that he plays with a real center?

I have to suppress my inner Jame.  There is no way I would ever consider Sheary "Skinner light".  The ballparks aren't on the same planet. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, ... said:

I have to suppress my inner Jame.  There is no way I would ever consider Sheary "Skinner light".  The ballparks aren't on the same planet. 

They are both smallish speed wingers known for their goal scoring and willingness to go to the “dirty” areas to score. Both need good centers to maximize their potential.   Skinner is a top line forward while Sheary is a 2nd line forward on a mediocre team and a 3rd line forward on a good team.  If they were in the same ballpark Sheary would be Skinner substitute not a Skinner light.

[dudacek]

You can't absolve Sheary of his play contributing to the state of the team.

He needs to be a 20-goal scorer. He has 9. He has just 3 in his past 43 games. Is it just coincidence we started losing when he stopped scoring?

He needs to be forcing turnovers and intimidating defencemen with his speed on the rush and the cycle. It doesn't happen.

We've seen him get sweet passes several times from Sam and ERod and whiff. We've seen him go to the wrong places and kill plays. We've seen him get knocked over by a stiff breeze. His defence is barely adequate, his physical game is poor.

He's struggling mightily in his role and he's part of the problem.

Edited February 27, 2019 by dudacek

[Carmel Corn]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

They are both smallish speed wingers known for their goal scoring and willingness to go to the “dirty” areas to score. Both need good centers to maximize their potential.   Skinner is a top line forward while Sheary is a 2nd line forward on a mediocre team and a 3rd line forward on a good team.  If they were in the same ballpark Sheary would be Skinner substitute not a Skinner light.

Sheary can't shoot like Skinner.  He can't stay on his feet either.  Last he is not much for agitating.  Yes, he can occupy Skinner's position on a line as a substitute, but I have no delusions that he will have nearly the impact. 

[...]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

They are both smallish speed wingers known for their goal scoring and willingness to go to the “dirty” areas to score. Both need good centers to maximize their potential.   Skinner is a top line forward while Sheary is a 2nd line forward on a mediocre team and a 3rd line forward on a good team.  If they were in the same ballpark Sheary would be Skinner substitute not a Skinner light.

Balderdash.  Maybe that's what some write-up somewhere says about Sheary, but anyone watching these games knows very well little of that represents reality.

Skinner courageously...to a fault...goes to the dirty areas.  Sheary never goes where it takes a little courage.  The best we get out of that guy is he courageously nearly hyper-extends himself trying to get his stick into a play.

Skinner and Sheary have been with Eichel.  Who is still playing with Eichel?  Sheary could not capitalize on being paired with Eichel.  That he "needs" a good center is a distraction from what he really is.

Skinner is a master at creating upset on ice and drawing penalties.  Sheary is a nothing in this area - there is no intensity to his game.

I never was stricken by Sheary's alleged speed.

Skinner can skate circles around most of the league.  Sheary shows none of this ability.

Speaking of courage and skating, Sheary routinely turns over the puck because he lacks the courage and skating ability to avoid hits and so coughs up the puck in a variety of ways.

 

 

Edited February 27, 2019 by ...

[dudacek]

He works harder, but Sheary has been about as effective this year as the man he replaced, Benoit Pouliot, was last year.

Edited February 27, 2019 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

41 minutes ago, dudacek said:

You can't absolve Sheary of his play contributing to the state of the team.

He needs to be a 20-goal scorer. He has 9. He has just 3 in his past 43 games. Is it just coincidence we started losing when he stopped scoring?

He needs to be forcing turnovers and intimidating defencemen with his speed on the rush and the cycle. It doesn't happen.

We've seen him get sweet passes several times from Sam and ERod and whiff. We've seen him go to the wrong places and kill plays. We've seen him get knocked over by a stiff breeze. His defence is adequate, his physical game is poor.

He's struggling mightily in his role and he's part of the problem.

He is shooting at the same rate as last season. His Corsi/Fenwick/PDO are similar to his numbers with Pittsburgh.  The biggest change numerically is a shoot % that has gone from 14 to 8. We have seen every Sabre this season whiff on great passes.  This isn’t just a Sheary issue. On the plus side he doesn’t give the puck away and has done a better job creating for his teammates then he did last year in Pitt.  

I’m not defending Sheary as the second coming.  I think we have received reasonable value from him and I think if we get him a real center, we’ll see even better results next season.   

If he is part of the problem, then it’s a fraction of the problem caused by a lack of a 2nd line center and the dumpster fires that are KO, Sobotka, Scandella, Bogo, and Thompson.

 

24 minutes ago, dudacek said:

He works harder, but Sheary has been about as effective this year as the man he replaced, Benoit Pouliot, was last year.

Pouliot had 19 pts in 74 games. In what world is a 35 pts season the same as a 19 pt season?

Edited February 27, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[...]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If he is part of the problem, then it’s a fraction of the problem caused by a lack of a 2nd line center and the dumpster fires that are KO, Sobotka, Scandella, Bogo, and Thompson.

This is true.  Of the 7 problems, his share is 1 / 7th.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, ... said:

This is true.  Of the 7 problems, his share is 1 / 7th.

Your math doesn’t work.  If there are 7 major problems and he is 1/7 then you are really giving them equal culpability.

The truth is the issues with this team are large and varied.  We have roster issues (lack of a 2nd line center or defensive dmen) and that is on Jbot.  Our PP sucked for most of the year and that is on PH and his staff.  Expensive players KO, Scandella, Bogo, Sobotka and Pominville haven’t come close to producing anywhere near where they are getting paid.  That’s on them.  Mitts and Thompson were given roles they weren’t ready for and that is on Jbot and PH.  

I’m sorry but when I look at the Pantheon of issues facing this team, Sheary doesn’t even make my top 15. 

[dudacek]

20 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He is shooting at the same rate as last season. His Corsi/Fenwick/PDO are similar to his numbers with Pittsburgh.  The biggest change numerically is a shoot % that has gone from 14 to 8. We have seen every Sabre this season whiff on great passes.  This isn’t just a Sheary issue. On the plus side he doesn’t give the puck away and has done a better job creating for his teammates then he did last year in Pitt.  

I’m also defending Sheary as the second coming.  I think we have received reasonable value from him and I think if we get him a real center, we’ll see even better results next season.   

If he is part of the problem, then it’s a fraction of the problem caused by a lack of a 2nd line center and the dumpster fires that are KO, Sobotka, Scandella, Bogo, and Thompson.

 

Pouliot had 19 pts in 74 games. In what world is a 35 pts season the same as a 19 pt season?

Pouliot had 13 goals. The way Sheary is going he'll be lucky if he hits that. Over the past half-season he is pacing for six.

You're putting far more credence into his assist total than I would. I don't recall many plays where he was the playmaker.

He may not turn the puck over much in terms of making dumb passes, but he frequently turns it over in the sense of being checked off the puck, or through his inability to receive passes.

Sure he might be less of an issue if he was playing with a good centre. Not everybody can play with Jack and we need our middle six guys to be effective without Jack. Erod makes plays and Reinhart is very good and that hasn't fixed Sheary.

And it doesn't change the fact he is another passenger on a team that has too many. He was supposed to make us better and he hasn't.

Edited February 27, 2019 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Pouliot had 13 goals. The way Sheary is going he'll be lucky if he hits that. Over the past half-season he is pacing for six.

You're putting far more credence into his assist total than I would. I don't recall many plays where he was the playmaker.

He may not turn the puck over much in terms of making dumb passes, but he frequently turns it over in the sense of being checked off the puck, or his inability to receive passes.

Sure he might be less of an issue if he was playing with a good centre. But Erod makes plays and Reinhart is very good and that hasn't fixed him.

And it doesn't change the fact he is another passenger on a team that has too many.

I can accept that he is a bit of a passenger, but no where near what Pouliot was who had great puck luck last year with a 15% shooting % and the other much more expensive garbage on this team.  Again we are getting reasonable bang for our buck from Sheary,  while guys being paid to be top 6 forwards and top 2 pairing D are performing like 4th line forwards, 7th d, or an AHL forward or D.  

 

[dudacek]

I agree Sheary isn’t our biggest problem, but for me he is one of our biggest disappointments, relative to expectations.

He wasn’t brought in to be filler, he was brought in to fix the roster issue of too much filler.

[Crusader1969]

a big piece of the puzzle for me is Borgen. Is he ready to play in the NHL and provide someone like Dahlin a tough stay at home type to play with.

If so, this definitely makes Risto available for a trade to bring in help for the forward group.

I think they are 2 big pieces away from being a legit playoff team.

1 via trade 

1 via free agency

 

 

[Drunkard]

1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

a big piece of the puzzle for me is Borgen. Is he ready to play in the NHL and provide someone like Dahlin a tough stay at home type to play with.

If so, this definitely makes Risto available for a trade to bring in help for the forward group.

I think they are 2 big pieces away from being a legit playoff team.

1 via trade 

1 via free agency

 

 

Why would Borgen make Ristolainen expendable? That makes absolutely no sense. In fact it sounds like the recipe for having no depth in perpetuity.

Hey, this Borgen guy is playing pretty well in Rochester.

Even though he hasn't proven squat in the NHL, we should move him up to Buffalo, pencil him in on the top pair, then ship off our top minute eating defenseman.

I suppose you want to trade Ristolainen for a #2 center, right? I wonder why we even need one of those? Probably because once we finally had some depth at the center position our fearless idiot in charge traded away one of the best #2 centers in the league. One of the few guys on the team who actually earned the money he got paid.

Then when Borgen flames out on the top pairing and Bogosian has his next inevitable injury we can go back to having Casey Nelson in our top 4.

Then maybe we can trade Reinhart for a replacement defenseman, who won't be nearly as good as Ristolainen then figure out what other players we have left who are worth a damn to try to replace Reinhart.

Edited February 27, 2019 by Drunkard

[Crusader1969]

whats the Projected Line up to start 2019/20?

Skinner         Eichel         ????

Erod             ???                Reinhart

Sheary       Mittlestadt     Thompson

Girgensons    Larsson     Okposo    

 

WHo are the candidates for the ???  Internally I would think its Smith, Olofsson  and Nylander as top line wingers but you also have to look at UFA's and Trades.

No one in the organization can fill the 2C role - UFA or Trade.

 

 

 

 

[Crusader1969]

8 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

Why would Borgen make Ristolainen expendable? That makes absolutely no sense. In fact it sounds like the recipe for having no depth in perpetuity.

Hey, this Borgen guy is playing pretty well in Rochester.

Even though he hasn't proven squat in the NHL, we should move him up to Buffalo, pencil him in on the top pair, then ship off our top minute eating defenseman.

I suppose you want to trade Ristolainen for a #2 center, right? I wonder why we even need one of those? Probably because once we finally had some depth at the center position our fearless idiot in charge traded away one of the best #2 centers in the league. One of the few guys on the team who actually earned the money he got paid.

Then when Borgen flames out on the top pairing and Bogosian has his next inevitable injury we can go back to have Casey Nelson in our top 4.

Then maybe we can trade Reinhart for a replacement defenseman, who won't be nearly as good as Ristolainen then figure out what other players we have left who are worth a damn to try to replace Reinhart.

So we go into next season with the same forward group?

I also started by saying "if" he is ready. The kid is 23 next season, played 3 seasons in the NCAA and 1 in AHL. Why is it impossible that he is NHL ready next season? no reason he couldn't complete for a roster spot next year.

 

Edited February 27, 2019 by Crusader1969

[Drunkard]

Just now, Crusader1969 said:

So we go into next season with the same forward group?

 

I hope not. I'd like to replace Pominville, Okposo, and Sobotka at an absolute minimum, but we shouldn't have to trade Ristolainen to find upgrades over those guys. Heck I bet Olofsson, Smith, and Wilson would do better in their places and even if they couldn't, they'd at least be cheaper.

[...]

6 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

whats the Projected Line up to start 2019/20?

Skinner         Eichel         ????

Erod             ???                Reinhart

Sheary       Mittlestadt     Thompson

Girgensons    Larsson     Okposo    

 

WHo are the candidates for the ???  Internally I would think its Smith, Olofsson  and Nylander as top line wingers but you also have to look at UFA's and Trades.

No one in the organization can fill the 2C role - UFA or Trade.

At the very least those ??? should be targets this off-season.  Both will require some hefty capital in a trade or fat contract.   

[PerreaultForever]

We sign Karlsson and then trade Risto for a 2C (maybe Ryan Nugent Hopkins).....................not gonna happen.

Skinner @ 8-8.5 seems like a possible number. After that I am less pessimistic on Mitts. I think he will take big steps and be much better next year but maybe I'm just being optimistic. So for me we need 2 wingers

Skinner Eichel ????

???? Mitts Reinhart

3rd line is whatever it is but we draft Kirby Dach as an eventual big 3C and maybe even 2C in the future if I'm wrong about Mitts.

ERod is a good utility player and should be kept along with Larsson and Girgensens in their same role

Also like to upgrade one D position but that's a lower priority.

I'd look at Marcus Johanson and Ryan Dzingel as possibilities. Watched Johanson make some smooth passes with Krejci the other night and I think he might fit this team really well with his style. Depends on prices of course. 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

whats the Projected Line up to start 2019/20?

Skinner         Eichel         ????

Erod             ???                Reinhart

Sheary       Mittlestadt     Thompson

Girgensons    Larsson     Okposo    

 

WHo are the candidates for the ???  Internally I would think its Smith, Olofsson  and Nylander as top line wingers but you also have to look at UFA's and Trades.

No one in the organization can fill the 2C role - UFA or Trade.

 

I think this is definitely a start of a possible lineup.  Olofsson on Jack's line would be interesting, but it would be a lot to ask a rookie, even a 24 year old one.

Jbot does a really good job of keeping his business out of the media until it happens.  I don't remember seeing anything on the ROR trade, Skinner or Montour until right before they were officially announced.  With both Montour and Skinner he went after players on teams in transition.  Montour was a favorite of Carlyle.  Carlyle was fired and Murray dropped him from the PK and his minutes overall.  Jbot jumped at that change.  Skinner didn't fit what new Canes GM Don Waddell wanted to do in Carolina and Jbot correctly thought he would be a perfect fit with Eichel.  

I think we should be looking for guys that are 24-28 under contract for at least a year and on teams where there is a new coach and/or GM.  One winger that might fit that description is Brandon Saad with Chicago.  He can score, has some grit and is only 26.  He has 2 more years on his contract at 6 mill. 

Maybe TB trades JT Miller (25) so that they can afford to pay Brayden Point.  Miller plays all 3 forward slots and if TB is going to move him this is the time because he has a MNTC that kicks in next season.

Maybe STl makes Schenn available this summer or Jbot signs Duchene as a UFA.

Edited February 28, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

JT Miller is an excellent target; he's smart, young enough and he's also versatile enough to play anywhere in the top nine except 1C (and we have that covered) and he will potentially be available as Tampa tries to solve its cap woes.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Another possible candidate is UFA Marcus Johansson.  He also plays all 3 forward spots and as a UFA coming off a mediocre year we might be able to get him relatively in expensively.  He might jump at the chance to play a 2C for a few seasons as Mitts matures.   He is also only 27.

[dudacek]

I really hope Johansson isn't the guy.

Not that he's a bad player, but we're already too soft.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

I really hope Johansson isn't the guy.

Not that he's a bad player, but we're already too soft.

Pick up Saad and Johannson, and send Sheary to Chi as part of the deal? 

Skinner Eichel Reinhart

Saad Johansson Erod

Thompson Mitts Olofsson

Girgensons Larsson Okposo

Sobatka

Edited February 28, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

If I'm reading capfriendly correctly, Tampa will have about $6 million left next year to sign RFAs Point, Paquette and Erne, as well as replace UFAs Girardi, Stralman and Coburn.They will probably want to clear between $6 and $10 to sign Point and add to D. Callahan, Stamkos, Palat, Johnson, and Killorn have no movement clauses.

Player-wise, Ristolainen makes so much sense for them next year. I wonder how much groundwork has been laid.

 

Edited February 28, 2019 by dudacek