Official:Trade Brandon Montour to Buffalo for 1st and Guhle

[shrader]

14 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Everyone but Stu Barnes.  He was awful most of the rest of that 1st regular season then turned it on come playoff time.  

But it would be interesting to see that stat for new team debuts.

And then there's Steve Bernier.  If I remember correctly, he scored twice in his debut and then wound up with a grand total of 3 goals for his entire (short) Sabre career.

And wasn't Juneau a lesser version of Barnes for that one year?  I feel like I remember him doing very little but then putting up a very useful performance in the playoffs.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Yes plus minus often reflects the quality of a team.  After all teams with large goal differentials like ANA this season (-56) have entire rosters with a -.  Lind Holme is -15, Fowler -12 and their big forwards range from -7 to -21.  So Montour’s -16 isn’t surprising.  He has also been a + player every year of his career until now but was know to be defensively week.  This season the info says he has improved defensively is more physical and was playing significant P.K. minutes until Murray took over as coach on an effective P.K. unit.

What does stand out about Risto this season is his -25 is so much worse then any other Sabres.  Our bad forwards are -11 to -14.  Our next worse D is McCabe at only -6.  Granted Risto plays against the toughest competition and the most minutes, but this difference seems odd. 

[Taro T]

10 minutes ago, sabills said:

Its also worth noting that +/- does not take goals for on the PP or goals against on the PK into account. I don't think empty net goals are counted either, though.

Empty net goals against that come when the team pulling the goalie is not killing a penalty most certainly are counted as a -1 against those skaters.

[jsb]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

.What does stand out about Risto this season is his -25 is so much worse then any other Sabres.  Our bad forwards are -11 to -14.  Our next worse D is McCabe at only -6.  Granted Risto plays against the toughest competition and the most minutes, but this difference seems odd. 

Not to say you're wrong but if you look at the stats for the past few games, you will see Bogosian and McCabe have basically an equal amount of 5v5 or more than Risto. Risto gets the most TOI because of his time on the PP, not necessarily because he's playing against the best of the other teams lineup.

[sabills]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

Empty net goals against that come when the team pulling the goalie is not killing a penalty most certainly are counted as a -1 against those skaters.

Yeah, you're right, this is what I get for reading Wikipedia. Here it is from the horses mouth, as it were:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26374

Quote

Plus-Minus
A player is awarded a "plus" each time he is on the ice when his Club scores an even-strength or shorthanded goal. He receives a "minus" if he is on the ice for an even-strength or shorthanded goal scored by the opposing Club. The difference in these numbers is considered the player's "plus-minus" statistic.

 

Its possible wikipedia was referencing a goalie leaving early on a PP or something.

[LGR4GM]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Yes plus minus often reflects the quality of a team.  After all teams with large goal differentials like ANA this season (-56) have entire rosters with a -.  Lind Holme is -15, Fowler -12 and their big forwards range from -7 to -21.  So Montour’s -16 isn’t surprising.  He has also been a + player every year of his career until now but was know to be defensively week.  This season the info says he has improved defensively is more physical and was playing significant P.K. minutes until Murray took over as coach on an effective P.K. unit.

What does stand out about Risto this season is his -25 is so much worse then any other Sabres.  Our bad forwards are -11 to -14.  Our next worse D is McCabe at only -6.  Granted Risto plays against the toughest competition and the most minutes, but this difference seems odd. 

Reminds me of a certain posters TR +/- which I think is a good way to normalize the stat for a bad team. 

[sabills]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Reminds me of a certain posters TR +/- which I think is a good way to normalize the stat for a bad team. 

hows that?

[shrader]

4 minutes ago, sabills said:

Yeah, you're right, this is what I get for reading Wikipedia. Here it is from the horses mouth, as it were:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26374

 

Its possible wikipedia was referencing a goalie leaving early on a PP or something.

I'm confused.  I don't see anything in your quote about a pulled goalie.  Basically it boils down to this.  A goal for is counted as long as you don't have more players on the ice than the opposing team (including the goalie).  Goals against count as long as you don't have less.

[shrader]

2 minutes ago, sabills said:

hows that?

I'm not sure on the exact measure, but it should basically be how much your plus/minus differs from the team average.  If the team as a whole is a -5 and you are a -3.  Your team relative would be +2.  There may be some minor tweaks in the formula, but that's the basic idea.

[sabills]

9 minutes ago, shrader said:

I'm confused.  I don't see anything in your quote about a pulled goalie.  Basically it boils down to this.  A goal for is counted as long as you don't have more players on the ice than the opposing team (including the goalie).  Goals against count as long as you don't have less.

No, there isn't. but it said this on Wikipedia and it confused me originally:

Power play or penalty shot goals are excluded. An empty net does not matter for the calculation of plus–minus.

I read it wrong. I thought I read : "an empty net goal does not [count] for the calculation of plus-minus."

6 minutes ago, shrader said:

I'm not sure on the exact measure, but it should basically be how much your plus/minus differs from the team average.  If the team as a whole is a -5 and you are a -3.  Your team relative would be +2.  There may be some minor tweaks in the formula, but that's the basic idea.

Thats interesting, and seems more worthwhile. Thanks.

Edited February 26, 2019 by sabills

[dudacek]

A proper plus minus would only measure 5-on-5 play. And even then it is strictly a measure of how effective your team was while you were on the ice.

A much better (if much more difficult) system for measuring individual performance would be a system that charges players for mental and physical errors that resulted in a goal against. For example, I would give one to Risto for letting Ennis behind him, Larsson and Hunwick for failing to tie up Gauthier and Tavares, and Erod for the doink that set up Matthews. Other guys on the ice may or may not get one depending on what they were doing during the possession that led to the goal.

The amount of judgement calls needed would make it almost impossible to call fairly. Sort of like the way the NHL calls penalties.

And the goalie's role is such a wild card. Ullmark covered up far worse mistakes than Hunwick's coverage on the Tavares goal, which was actually pretty good.

Plus-minus isn't entirely useless though and Risto's can't be hand-waved away simply as a result of usage.

One of my favourite illustrations is the 85-86 Sabres, the definition of an average team, who finished with exactly a .500 record and scored five more than they allowed over 80 games. Mike Foligno was +25, Gilles Hamel -27.

[rakish]

Quote

I count six empty net goals against the sabres that risto was on the ice for, before last night

goal against team: team 9,23,37,43,26,55 opponent 71,81,19,3,22,29
goal against team: team 9,23,53,21,26,55 opponent 95,9,61,2,72,41
goal against team: team 9,53,71,29,4,55 opponent 90,95,26,76,77,30
goal against team: team 9,17,23,53,26,55 opponent 11,16,63,3,13,1
goal against team: team 23,37,53,21,26,55 opponent 19,91,88,2,7,30
goal against team: team 9,23,53,21,26,55 opponent 55,26,17,8,33,37

calculating the opposite, I would need to write some code, since the other teams' goalies aren't as obvious

 

[SDS]

5 minutes ago, utsvävande said:

 

how can both sides have 6 numbers?

[rakish]

3 minutes ago, SDS said:

how can both sides have 6 numbers?

I don't understand the question

[SDS]

7 minutes ago, utsvävande said:

I don't understand the question

It looks like you are showing who is on the ice during empty net situations for both teams. I assumed one side would not have the goalie number included. Maybe that was a bad assumption. 

[rakish]

Lets look at the most recent

goal against team: team 9,23,53,21,26,55 opponent 55,26,17,8,33,37

These are the six players on the ice for the Sabres, Eichel, Reinhart, etc. 37 for the other team would be the goaltender. It's more difficult to tell you the opposite, the Sabre goals that 55 is on the ice for, because, to look at an example

goal by team: team 9,10,23,6,55,40 opponent 20,36,72,93,17,22

I don't know if 22 is a goaltender. I wrote the code to answer a similar question, so it would take me some time to rewrite it so I knew who 22 was.

 

[North Buffalo]

22 btw is Larrsson a defensive center

[rakish]

No, 22 is on the other team

[North Buffalo]

ah

you talking Toronto?

Nakita Ziatsev a defenseman

Edited February 26, 2019 by North Buffalo

[rakish]

22 in this case is Kevin Shattenkirk, for an empty net goal against the Rangers

[LTS]

You also have to count short handed goals... 

The Sabres have given those up as well. ?

[Samson's Flow]

3 hours ago, shrader said:

And then there's Steve Bernier.  If I remember correctly, he scored twice in his debut and then wound up with a grand total of 3 goals for his entire (short) Sabre career.

And wasn't Juneau a lesser version of Barnes for that one year?  I feel like I remember him doing very little but then putting up a very useful performance in the playoffs.

I will always remember Steve Bernier as the traded player who duped me with thier stellar Sabres debut. I thought he was going to be great... DOH!

[Doohicksie]

5 minutes ago, Samson's Flow said:

I will always remember Steve Bernier as the traded player who duped me with thier stellar Sabres debut. I thought he was going to be great... DOH!

Didn't Brad Boyes have a good debut as well?  Scored a goal in his first Sabres game, maybe two?

[dudacek]

24 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Didn't Brad Boyes have a good debut as well?  Scored a goal in his first Sabres game, maybe two?

Ah yes, Brad Boyes, better known as Sam Reinhart 1.0.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Hey Brandon, welcome to hockey hell.