Official:Trade Brandon Montour to Buffalo for 1st and Guhle

[jame]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Giving up a 1st is always risky. I was really annoyed hearing talking heads speak about the drop off at 20 in this draft. That's not how it works. That said, it's a fair price impo.

That’s exactly how it works, that’s why the success rate of picks drops so drastically in the mid-late first

[Broken Ankles]

6 hours ago, shrader said:

 

You're oversimplifying things when it comes to comparing one guy trading away two first round picks to another guy trading one. There’s the obvious difference in count right off the bat, but the biggest issue with Murray was specifically the Lehner deal. Other equally qualified goalies were being moved at the same time for a smaller price. I don’t remember the specific health of each of them, but Lehner also had the concussion cloud hovering over him at the time. Murray overpaid for one of “his guys” and that was the general consensus at the time. 

Don’t forget the two seconds to the two firsts in 2015 to make 4 picks in the top 43 in what was widely touted as a deep draft.  I like LGR’s point that says the draft drops off at 20.  Trading 4 picks in a deep draft vs 1 (and maintaining three) in a perceived shallow one is not irresponsible.   But he needs to deliver.   We could (and have) argued about the outside factors affecting the O’Reilly deal.  There is no safety net of excuses in this trade.  It simply must work. 

[LGR4GM]

8 hours ago, jame said:

That’s exactly how it works, that’s why the success rate of picks drops so drastically in the mid-late first

Not in reality it isn't.  You can say that there are 20 guys in this draft you would want. That's where we get that 20 drop off. However, we can't say that every NHL team will have the same 20 or that an NHL team will draft one of the those 20 in the top 20. Zachary Senyshyn was not and is not a top 20 draft pick but he was taken in the the top 20. That's what I mean by my statement. The "expected value" of that pick may drop because of historical trends but most were not talking about historical. They were talking about how there's roughly 20 players in this draft before a drop. My only point was even if there is, teams won't agree on all 20 and some teams will go rogue meaning guys will slide into the mid to late 20's that might be part of that top cohort. 

[shrader]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Not in reality it isn't.  You can say that there are 20 guys in this draft you would want. That's where we get that 20 drop off. However, we can't say that every NHL team will have the same 20 or that an NHL team will draft one of the those 20 in the top 20. Zachary Senyshyn was not and is not a top 20 draft pick but he was taken in the the top 20. That's what I mean by my statement. The "expected value" of that pick may drop because of historical trends but most were not talking about historical. They were talking about how there's roughly 20 players in this draft before a drop. My only point was even if there is, teams won't agree on all 20 and some teams will go rogue meaning guys will slide into the mid to late 20's that might be part of that top cohort. 

And some of those 20 will pan out and others won't.  Just like how some from 21 through whatever will make it as well.  Just because there's an expected value chart that someone put together, that doesn't mean you're getting exactly what that curve tells you.  If anyone is living or dying off of that chart, they're more than likely doing the latter.

[GASabresIUFAN]

All this is why at the trade deadline in some years it is common to see 1st rd picks traded while in others no team moves their 1st.

One other note on the Montour trade.  In this case I tend to think about the 1st we got from SJ/Stl as a chip to get a hockey trade completed.  For example; would I trade Kane and Guhle for Montour and O’Regan.  I think I might given the team needs.  Would I trade ROR and Guhle for Montour, Thompson and a 2nd?  Yes I might do that as well.  Ultimately we traded an established vet for a younger vet under control that fills a need on our team. I would have liked to kept Guhle because I think he’ll be a solid NHLer someday, but because of Pilut and guys like Samuelsson, Oskari and Borgen coming up behind him, I think he was expendable.  

[shrader]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

All this is why at the trade deadline in some years it is common to see 1st rd picks traded while in others no team moves their 1st.

One other note on the Montour trade.  In this case I tend to think about the 1st we got from SJ/Stl as a chip to get a hockey trade completed.  For example; would I trade Kane and Guhle for Montour and O’Regan.  I think I might given the team needs.  Would I trade ROR and Guhle for Montour, Thompson and a 2nd?  Yes I might do that as well.  Ultimately we traded an established vet for a younger vet under control that fills a need on our team. I would have liked to kept Guhle because I think he’ll be a solid NHLer someday, but because of Pilut and guys like Samuelsson, Oskari and Borgen coming up behind him, I think he was expendable.  

And let's also factor into your scenarios the fact that Kane is leaving in free agency a few if you don't make that deal.  We may want to judge these deals based solely on player vs. player, but there's always far more than just that in play.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, shrader said:

And let's also factor into your scenarios the fact that Kane is leaving in free agency a few if you don't make that deal.  We may want to judge these deals based solely on player vs. player, but there's always far more than just that in play.

Exactly, Jbot in a year turned a scoring top 6 forward who was leaving, Kane, into a younger scoring top 4 RHD who is under contract and then an RFA.  

Also why is this trade different then in 2015?

in 2015 the only core player from the rebuild on the Sabres was Ristolainen. TM needed those picks and prospects to build his core.

in 2019 the core now has Risto, Dahlin, Eichel, Reinhart, and Skinner.  Jbot is trying to supplement this core to build a winner.

[shrader]

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Exactly, Jbot in a year turned a scoring top 6 forward who was leaving, Kane, into a younger scoring top 4 RHD who is under contract and then an RFA.  

Also why is this trade different then in 2015?

in 2015 the only core player from the rebuild on the Sabres was Ristolainen. TM needed those picks and prospects to build his core.

in 2019 the core now has Risto, Dahlin, Eichel, Reinhart, and Skinner.  Jbot is trying to supplement this core to build a winner.

And take a look at those 2014-2015 Rochester Americans for even more reason why it might not be a great idea to trade out every single future.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, shrader said:

And take a look at those 2014-2015 Rochester Americans for even more reason why it might not be a great idea to trade out every single future.

Are you talking about the 8 or so NHL regulars who played for that team?

@jame FYI: Montour wasn’t traded because of the new coach.  The new coach was the GM who acquired him.  Also the GM/HC said he is trying to build a faster team.  Why then trade one of your fastest players if you are trying to build a faster team.  The only reason left is money.  

[Hoss]

If anyone is wondering Guhle apparently had a strong debut

[inkman]

5 minutes ago, Hoss said:

If anyone is wondering Guhle apparently had a strong debut

Led the team in shots, 4th among D in ice time. Also was a -1 on a team that lost 4-0. 

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, inkman said:

Led the team in shots, 4th among D in ice time. Also was a -1 on a team that lost 4-0. 

Positively Risto-esque.

[shrader]

10 minutes ago, Hoss said:

If anyone is wondering Guhle apparently had a strong debut

It's always interesting when one guy in the trade is able to play but the other isn't.  I'm not trying to suggest anything here, just interesting.

[SDS]

6 minutes ago, Hoss said:

If anyone is wondering Guhle apparently had a strong debut

It's too bad there isn't easy access to player debut performances. It seems like everyone has a great debut before settling in to normalcy.

1 minute ago, shrader said:

It's always interesting when one guy in the trade is able to play but the other isn't.  I'm not trying to suggest anything here, just interesting.

Time zones?

[shrader]

18 minutes ago, SDS said:

Time zones?

So a few extra hours because Guhle was heading out west.  Makes sense.

[Doohicksie]

17 minutes ago, shrader said:

So a few extra hours because Guhle was heading out west.  Makes sense.

Can also be compounded by availability of flights.  Chances are, Guhle was out there the same day (and could do the morning skate the following day), where Montour probably arrived the next day.

[Hoss]

40 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Can also be compounded by availability of flights.  Chances are, Guhle was out there the same day (and could do the morning skate the following day), where Montour probably arrived the next day.

I still think it’s a Sabres thing. The Pens had two players literally arrive at the arena during the pregame skate. They ended up walking to the bench moments before the anthem and played.

Montour was here well before them.

GMJB mentioned he wanted Montour to watch last night from up top which gives me the impression he easily could’ve played and they held him out.

[Derrico]

7 minutes ago, Hoss said:

I still think it’s a Sabres thing. The Pens had two players literally arrive at the arena during the pregame skate. They ended up walking to the bench moments before the anthem and played.

Montour was here well before them.

GMJB mentioned he wanted Montour to watch last night from up top which gives me the impression he easily could’ve played and they held him out.

Ya I think he was there in time to easily play.  Facing the leafs, I selfishly wanted to see him in there.  Can't blame botts though.  Have him watch a game from up top and try to give him the best opportunity to succeed may have been the right play.  Then again, we need every point in the standings as we can and maybe the Sabres get out of last night with atleast one if he's in there instead of one of the bottom pairing guys.

[Ho-Chi-Sock]

Bots had mentioned during his presser the importance of recognizing thee's always a "shock" for a player when they're traded, especially at the deadline. I imagine that was a strong factor in the decision to rest Monty last night rather than throw him to the wolves first thing.

[...]

There was conversation...here?  On the radio broadcast yesterday? ...about how an organization treats players goes a long way in helping to acquire players.  Things about how if a team is able to get a traded player to a team where they might have legit opportunities, or being cognizant of the impact a trade might make for the person/player and dealing with it as best as possible, becomes part of the reputation the organization has among players.

I'm a believer in that approach, so, I have no problem with how the Sabres handled Montour yesterday.

[Kruppstahl]

So by now most folks have probably seen John Vogl's tweet from last night pointing out that Risto is now tied for the 2nd worst Plus/Minus in the entire NHL.

On a list of 858 names, Risto is tied for 856th best plus/minus with a -25. 

What no one has been discussing, though, is that sitting nicely in spot 826 is Brandon Montour with a -16.

So literally every player in the league, but 2, have a better plus/minus than Risto, and 825 players have a better plus/minus than Montour.

What's that?  It's an outdated stat?  It's a team stat and the Ducks are terrible?  What?  Randy Carlyle was a terrible HC?  

Mmmmhmmm.

Montour is a very offensive oriented D man, has a game similar to Risto, and neither are very good defensively.  

Don't expect a big improvement in that area. 

 

 

[sabills]

31 minutes ago, Kruppstahl said:

So by now most folks have probably seen John Vogl's tweet from last night pointing out that Risto is now tied for the 2nd worst Plus/Minus in the entire NHL.

On a list of 858 names, Risto is tied for 856th best plus/minus with a -25. 

What no one has been discussing, though, is that sitting nicely in spot 826 is Brandon Montour with a -16.

So literally every player in the league, but 2, have a better plus/minus than Risto, and 825 players have a better plus/minus than Montour.

What's that?  It's an outdated stat?  It's a team stat and the Ducks are terrible?  What?  Randy Carlyle was a terrible HC?  

Mmmmhmmm.

Montour is a very offensive oriented D man, has a game similar to Risto, and neither are very good defensively.  

Don't expect a big improvement in that area. 

 

 

Yeah

[shrader]

8 minutes ago, sabills said:

Yeah

Looking at their team as a whole for that stat?  Yeah, it's not pretty.  A 10 goal lead for worst goal differential?  Wow it's bad out there.

[Taro T]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Exactly, Jbot in a year turned a scoring top 6 forward who was leaving, Kane, into a younger scoring top 4 RHD who is under contract and then an RFA.  

Also why is this trade different then in 2015?

in 2015 the only core player from the rebuild on the Sabres was Ristolainen. TM needed those picks and prospects to build his core.

in 2019 the core now has Risto, Dahlin, Eichel, Reinhart, and Skinner.  Jbot is trying to supplement this core to build a winner.

And Mittelstadt & Montour both COULD become part of that core as well.

3 hours ago, SDS said:

It's too bad there isn't easy access to player debut performances. It seems like everyone has a great debut before settling in to normalcy.

Time zones?

Everyone but Stu Barnes.  He was awful most of the rest of that 1st regular season then turned it on come playoff time.  

But it would be interesting to see that stat for new team debuts.

 

1 hour ago, Kruppstahl said:

So by now most folks have probably seen John Vogl's tweet from last night pointing out that Risto is now tied for the 2nd worst Plus/Minus in the entire NHL.

On a list of 858 names, Risto is tied for 856th best plus/minus with a -25. 

What no one has been discussing, though, is that sitting nicely in spot 826 is Brandon Montour with a -16.

So literally every player in the league, but 2, have a better plus/minus than Risto, and 825 players have a better plus/minus than Montour.

What's that?  It's an outdated stat?  It's a team stat and the Ducks are terrible?  What?  Randy Carlyle was a terrible HC?  

Mmmmhmmm.

Montour is a very offensive oriented D man, has a game similar to Risto, and neither are very good defensively.  

Don't expect a big improvement in that area. 

 

 

In fairness to Ristolainen, how many empty netters has he been on the ice for?  Really expect the Sabres have to been near the league lead in that category & Risto is always on the ice for the empty net attack.

[sabills]

Its also worth noting that +/- does not take goals for on the PP or goals against on the PK into account. ̶I̶ ̶d̶o̶n̶'̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶n̶k̶ ̶e̶m̶p̶t̶y̶ ̶n̶e̶t̶ ̶g̶o̶a̶l̶s̶ ̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶c̶o̶u̶n̶t̶e̶d̶ ̶e̶i̶t̶h̶e̶r̶,̶ ̶t̶h̶o̶u̶g̶h̶.̶  WRONG.

Edited February 26, 2019 by sabills