Dahlin's expectations

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 hours ago, SDS said:

 

I don’t write this software.  This is like asking me to install a new feature into Microsoft Word. 

Not really a problem....maybe just keep it in mind if there's a software update down the road?

[Mustache of God]

Dahlin is 7 points away from being the 3rd highest 18 year old defensive scorer and needs 9 to slide into the number 2 spot (albeit Orr had 41 points in 61 games). Housley is #1 with 66 points.

Dahlin averages .55 points per game so it's not out of the realm of possibility he can slide into the number 2 spot with 22 games remaining. 

Point being, hell yeah he's living up to my expectations. 

 

[R_Dudley]

Wow this is a thread that has really plumbed the heights and depths of fandom and that perception does drive a lot of realities. 

I also think its a interesting question and voted Jury still out.

I didn't know what to expect for a generational D-man and needed to see these historical facts to really put into perspective how he is playing vs. what I was seeing and expected. 

I had hoped for a stronger shot and more silky, sneaky just dirty plays but maybe I'm confusing that with my fantasies...    

Edited February 22, 2019 by R_Dudley
fix

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, Weave said:

I’m not sure where this is coming from.  I don’t think anyone commented negatively on his offensive game.

Expecting an 18 year old D man to have a perfect defensive game is ridiculous so you should marvel at the offensive skill and be patient, the rest will come. realistic expectations.

6 hours ago, inkman said:

Rob Ray scored on his first shift. About the same relevance. 

sooooooo funny.

[Kruppstahl]

I think Dahlin is going to be a great player.  He shows signs of it now, despite being a kid and stuck in a boy's body.

With time, he will easily eclipse Eichel as best player on the team, assuming we don't get anyone better in the next few years. 

I would look for him to cross a line in Year 4...that's when he should really start stamping his authority on the game.

 

 

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, Mustache of God said:

Dahlin is 7 points away from being the 3rd highest 18 year old defensive scorer and needs 9 to slide into the number 2 spot (albeit Orr had 41 points in 61 games). Housley is #1 with 66 points.

Dahlin averages .55 points per game so it's not out of the realm of possibility he can slide into the number 2 spot with 22 games remaining. 

Point being, hell yeah he's living up to my expectations. 

 

Technically speaking, Ekblad had 31 points when he turned 19. ?

Housley's rookie season never gets enough credit, even at the time.

[inkman]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

 

sooooooo funny.

Nope 

[Weave]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Expecting an 18 year old D man to have a perfect defensive game is ridiculous so you should marvel at the offensive skill and be patient, the rest will come. realistic expectations.

sooooooo funny.

Why does it have to go to the extreme?  Noone expects perfect even out of vets.

 

Part of the issue with this conversation is wording.  “Expectations”.  It could mean are you satisified with his performance?  It could mean what were your preconceived notions of what you’d see his rookie year?  For me, I answered the second question.  And admitted that I really had no baseline for it.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

Technically speaking, Ekblad had 31 points when he turned 19. ?

Housley's rookie season never gets enough credit, even at the time.

It was something else, but did he not play forward as a rookie too?  maybe my memory has faded over the years?

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

It was something else, but did he not play forward as a rookie too?  maybe my memory has faded over the years?

He definitely played centre a lot in his second year. I'm not so sure about the first.

[PerreaultForever]

7 hours ago, Weave said:

Why does it have to go to the extreme?  Noone expects perfect even out of vets.

 

Part of the issue with this conversation is wording.  “Expectations”.  It could mean are you satisified with his performance?  It could mean what were your preconceived notions of what you’d see his rookie year?  For me, I answered the second question.  And admitted that I really had no baseline for it.

You make reasonable points, but when you say "noone expects perfect" you clearly are not reading all the comments of criticism he's gotten in multiple threads. 

[Weave]

5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

You make reasonable points, but when you say "noone expects perfect" you clearly are not reading all the comments of criticism he's gotten in multiple threads. 

I'm only responding to this conversation here.  The Sabrespace database is too big for me to want to draw a seasons worth of malaise into the one Inkman started here.

Edited February 23, 2019 by Weave

[Stoner]

It would be interesting to read back through the various Dahlin threads of summer.

[inkman]

On 2/20/2019 at 6:40 PM, LGR4GM said:

2nd best 18yr old defender to ever play in the league but here we are. This thread just exists for people to bitch about something else. 

Averages 20minutes a night, has piled up points for a rookie defender, positive corsi, best zone exits of anyone not named Eichel but here we are. But sure let's bitch that the guy has tried some crazy moves and they only work 75% of the time. 

 

The problem I have with your analysis (and I realize it's a generalization, not a deep statistical dive) is that a large portion of the 25% misses end up a prime scoring chances for the opposition. 

I just feel like some fans, me included, aren't going to be able to get past the glaring mistakes that lead to goals. 

I guess stats will bear it out but it is tough to ignore glaring gaffs that have negative consequences. 

[Curt]

16 minutes ago, inkman said:

The problem I have with your analysis (and I realize it's a generalization, not a deep statistical dive) is that a large portion of the 25% misses end up a prime scoring chances for the opposition. 

I just feel like some fans, me included, aren't going to be able to get past the glaring mistakes that lead to goals. 

I guess stats will bear it out but it is tough to ignore glaring gaffs that have negative consequences. 

He was an 18 yr old NHL rookie, it makes sense that there bad mistakes mixed in among the awesome plays.  You have to think that with experience and age, he will learn to “pick his spots” better over the next couple years.  If he was a 24 year old with 4 years of NHL experience under his belt, it would be different, but he was the youngest player in the NHL last season. (I’m 92% that this is an actual fact, I’m not going to look it up, if he wasn’t it was darn close.)

[inkman]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

He was an 18 yr old NHL rookie, it makes sense that there bad mistakes mixed in among the awesome plays.  You have to think that with experience and age, he will learn to “pick his spots” better over the next couple years.  If he was a 24 year old with 4 years of NHL experience under his belt, it would be different, but he was the youngest player in the NHL last season. (I’m 92% that this is an actual fact, I’m not going to look it up, if he wasn’t it was darn close.)

I brought it up again now with intent.  Either he's just ***** around during the preseason or he still is prone to the same issues as last season. I'm starting to feel it's who he is. High risk, high reward.  If that is so, he will forever be a divisive player on this team. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, inkman said:

I brought it up again now with intent.  Either he's just ***** around during the preseason or he still is prone to the same issues as last season. I'm starting to feel it's who he is. High risk, high reward.  If that is so, he will forever be a divisive player on this team. 

I think you are mostly spot on, except for the forever part.

I think this will be a season of Dahlin being among the top scoring defencemen in the league yet facing a lot of “he’s terrible defensively” criticism for high-profile gaffes.

Coffey, Housley, Karlsson...all the go-for-D went through it. The Sabres will have to win for it to go away.

Edited September 26, 2019 by dudacek

[TrueBlueGED]

3 hours ago, inkman said:

The problem I have with your analysis (and I realize it's a generalization, not a deep statistical dive) is that a large portion of the 25% misses end up a prime scoring chances for the opposition. 

I just feel like some fans, me included, aren't going to be able to get past the glaring mistakes that lead to goals. 

I guess stats will bear it out but it is tough to ignore glaring gaffs that have negative consequences. 

Nobody should ignore the gaffs, but they also shouldn't be viewed in isolation. As long as the balance of the ledger is positive, who cares? 

[...]

1 hour ago, inkman said:

I brought it up again now with intent.  Either he's just ***** around during the preseason or he still is prone to the same issues as last season. I'm starting to feel it's who he is. High risk, high reward.  If that is so, he will forever be a divisive player on this team. 

I think you're being impatient and something else.  Contrasted with Mitts, there is no mistaking his talent and, even despite the gaffs last season, the growth in his game during the season.  He's smart and will learn to patch a lot of the holes in his game.

The more elite players are always making higher risk/greater reward plays.  Eichel does it frequently, still, like entering the zone on his own right down the middle.  We had a discussion here once about this: not every attempt by an elite player to make a play will work out.  It's how they recover in the moment, and the results over the course of a season that matter.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, inkman said:

I brought it up again now with intent.  Either he's just ***** around during the preseason or he still is prone to the same issues as last season. I'm starting to feel it's who he is. High risk, high reward.  If that is so, he will forever be a divisive player on this team. 

Ah, ok, I didn’t realize that you were referencing this preseason.  I honestly have watched almost zero preseason action.  I feel that it has very little value as far as player evaluations go.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, inkman said:

I brought it up again now with intent.  Either he's just ***** around during the preseason or he still is prone to the same issues as last season. I'm starting to feel it's who he is. High risk, high reward.  If that is so, he will forever be a divisive player on this team. 

He's 19.  Though some are annointing him already, he is still figuring things out.  He got picked badly once last night but that was about the only really bad play he had last night.  (Was putting the 3rd goal more on Ristolainen & Olofsson, he might have been a part of the cause for that one as well.)

And, he'll be playing against better players next week, but still expect him to have significantly more good plays than not.  And actually WANT him to have a few brain cramps throughout the year because those will show he is stretching to find his limits.  Don't want to see him averaging more than 1-2 per game, but if he can keep those down around that level his partner or the goalie should be able to bail him out mire offer than not.

And, he likes to play physical in his own end.  In a couple of years, when he has man strength, you will really like his overall game.