Playoffs! Do you think we make it?

[steveoath]

March sees us play the pens twice and the hurricanes once. Hopefully we're still in the hunt by then. 

[JJFIVEOH]

No, but's it's been a hell of a jump. Next year is a different story. 

[MODO Hockey]

39 minutes ago, JJFIVEOH said:

No, but's it's been a hell of a jump. Next year is a different story. 

Next year is always a different story, to be fair im sure the goal for this season is playoffs but looking at 
it relisticly theres no way we reach that goal to be fair. Were not strong enough, but it sure looks good for next season if we can build on this.

 

 

[JJFIVEOH]

2 minutes ago, MODO Hockey said:

Next year is always a different story, to be fair im sure the goal for this season is playoffs but looking at 
it relisticly theres no way we reach that goal to be fair. Were not strong enough, but it sure looks good for next season if we can build on this.

 

 

I agree with you. But this is supposed to be the year they made a significant jump. And they have, they've already eclipsed last years team, with 20+ to go. If they make the playoffs, GREAT! But they may become the 2nd tesm in NHL history to have a 10 game win streak and not make the playoffs. I'm good with that, they didn't deserve the 10 game win streak. But, they do, however, deserve the improvement they've brought to the league. At this point, I think the Ballerina is probably more important than Eichel. But I'm comparing Kane and Toews. I've put my eggs in Botterill's basket (hope that doesn't sound too bad?

My 1B and 1A team will be decided on what happens during the offseaon. I worded that incorrectly....... THEY will be decided, not my mind. Sabres will always be my 1A. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

12 hours ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

Hey, he has like a buzz cut, I think we should call him full metal jacket flow and I can be Thor..... Mithout muscles 

I laughed, but then I thought about how things ended up for that full metal jacket flow guy, but at least he took out that jackass first.

[Samson's Flow]

15 hours ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

Hey, he has like a buzz cut, I think we should call him full metal jacket flow and I can be Thor..... Mithout muscles 

Yeah i'm just jealous of the flow. My genetics allow for a Beatles-esqe bowl cut/afro combo, so the Reinhart level flow just isn't in the cards. 

[Samson's Flow]

14 hours ago, sodbuster said:

Right now I say no, but ask me again after the deadline.

 

11 hours ago, ... said:

Can't answer the question for another week, sorry.

I expected a lot of answers like "ask me again in another few weeks". I put the thread and poll together to gauge our confidence level with 1/3rd of the season left to play. It will be interesting to see if this changes based on deadline activity or other factors. So far it is about 25% yes/75% no.

[Stoner]

Awwww... Mithout Muscles. Woody has an adorable nickname for Casey!

[Stoner]

10 hours ago, nfreeman said:

My rule of thumb in the “Sabres are X points out of the last playoff spot” is that to take that last spot, 2  straight wins are required for each point they are behind.  So if they are 2 points behind, they need 4 straight wins to supplant the current holder of the spot.  

So they need eight straight wins now? Doesn't sound quite right. But not far off. I ended up voting no because to make up four points at this time of year is very tough. People think of it as, oh well, just win two games. It's not that easy. And to have that team be Pittsburgh... you can almost forget about it.

[Samson's Flow]

Just now, PASabreFan said:

So they need eight straight wins now? Doesn't sound quite right. But not far off. I ended up voting no because to make up four points at this time of year is very tough. People think of it as, oh well, just win two games. It's not that easy. And to have that team be Pittsburgh... you can almost forget about it.

Not going to lie, after making this thread and leaving it alone for the night, I did tune into the EDM-PIT game last night on NBCSN to root against Pittsburgh. That didn't work out so well...

[Samson's Flow]

10 hours ago, nfreeman said:

My rule of thumb in the “Sabres are X points out of the last playoff spot” is that to take that last spot, 2  straight wins are required for each point they are behind.  So if they are 2 points behind, they need 4 straight wins to supplant the current holder of the spot.  

I look at the historical target of 97 points usually means playoffs. For the Sabres to do that they need to get 4 pts every 3 games. If they can play at that pace or better then they will be in the conversation. That's easier for me to digest then the mental gymnastics of figuring out how to pass X team.

[nfreeman]

44 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

So they need eight straight wins now? Doesn't sound quite right. But not far off. I ended up voting no because to make up four points at this time of year is very tough. People think of it as, oh well, just win two games. It's not that easy. And to have that team be Pittsburgh... you can almost forget about it. 

Well, to jump over a team with a 4-point advantage, the Sabres need to "gain" 5 points so they aren't relying on tiebreakers.

Since the team you're chasing is a playoff team, that means you have to assume that team is going to be playing at an above-.500 pace -- so they are probably going to win 5 of those 8 games and will therefore earn 10 points.  When you add those 10 points to the 5 the Sabres need to pass them -- you've got 15 points, or 1 less than the 16 the Sabres would earn with 8 straight wins.

As you said -- it's not exactly right, but IMHO it's pretty close -- and the more teams you have to pass, the closer it gets to troof.

 

[MattPie]

No. I haven't pasted my math in awhile, but they're below the pace to even get to 94. Expecting them to suddenly get significantly better for the next 2 month is luderous. There's a reason I switched to sad Keanu. I wish it wasn't true.

[Mig_22]

I said at the beginning that the Sabres and Jack would end up with the same amount of points.  I had it at 93.  That's close.  I'll vote yes.

[Samson's Flow]

20 minutes ago, MattPie said:

No. I haven't pasted my math in awhile, but they're below the pace to even get to 94. Expecting them to suddenly get significantly better for the next 2 month is luderous. There's a reason I switched to sad Keanu. I wish it wasn't true.

The math in the OP has us at a pace of 92.25. They will need to play at a better pace to make it to 97 pts (1.125 current -> new pace of 1.308), which I agree doesn't seem likely without a trade deadline upgrade.

[MattPie]

31 minutes ago, Samson's Flow said:

The math in the OP has us at a pace of 92.25. They will need to play at a better pace to make it to 97 pts (1.125 current -> new pace of 1.308), which I agree doesn't seem likely without a trade deadline upgrade.

I forgot about the last win, I think when I looked it was 90.something. That 1.308 pace is 107 points over a season. It seems unlikely the Sabres are going to be one of the top teams in hockey over the next two months.

[RonHextallsShoulderPads]

I think they’re playing a lot more sound lately. Even if it doesn’t always translate to a win. If they can get things to click, they could make it a close race. 

[matter2003]

No think we end up a few points out this year...no way Pittsburgh is going to miss the playoffs with that much talent and Columbus seems to have gotten their ship righted...unless Montreal really fades I dont see it happening.

 

Sabres squandered all those points over the past month and a half and its coming back to bite them

18 hours ago, Samson's Flow said:

Historically the playoff cutoff line has been around the 97 point mark. So far the Sabres have played 56 games for 63 points and sit two points behind Pittsburgh for the final wild card spot. There are a few teams to jump to make it, and about 1/3 rd of the season left to play.

 

Doing some quick math, the Sabres will need to up their PPG from ~1.125 to ~1.308, which equates to getting 4 points for every 3 games played (i.e. 2-1-0, 1-0-2, etc.). Essentially we need to play better than what we have YTD, and that includes the 10 game winning streak which boosted our points dramatically.

Make that 4 points now.

[matter2003]

16 hours ago, msw2112 said:

I think we can pass Carolina (and right now we're only 1 point behind with a game in hand), but ultimately, we will likely fall just short.  The team is better than it has been, but still lacks in a few areas and the competition is too strong.

Unfortunately the Eastern confernce has a lot more good teams thsn the Western Conference does this year...if we were in the West we would pretty much be a shoe in for the playoffs this year...

[Sabres Fan in NS]

9 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Unfortunately the Eastern confernce has a lot more good teams thsn the Western Conference does this year...if we were in the West we would pretty much be a shoe in for the playoffs this year...

Maybe Mr. Pegula should go all Harold Ballard and demand that the Sabres move to the Western Conference ASAP.

[GASabresIUFAN]

This next 5 games before the deadline may be the key to the season.  We play 3 non playoff teams in the NYR, @ NJ,  @ Fla.  We then play at TB and home against the Caps.  We must go 3-1-1 in these 5 to make a run at the playoffs and to convince Jbot to try an upgrade or two before the deadline.  After these 5 we play at Tor and at Philly back to back to close out the month.  If we are getting deadline help Jbot will want them here before the game against the Leafs on the 24th.  

 

[LTS]

I thought they would be a bubble team at the start of the season and nothing has made me change my mind.  Unless someone is getting stupid at the deadline I don't think the Sabres are going to do anything but move a few bodies out to prepare for the bigger jump next year.

Columbus is a wild card in this... they'll go downhill fast if they dump Panarin and Bobbo.  There are a few teams that are a bit more desperate to make the playoffs (Penguins and Capitals) and I think they will try to add for the run.  They are nearing some roster turnover and need to make it in.  The Hurricanes, Canadiens, Islanders, and Sabres are all able to float another year without significant pressure.  Boston seems to be more of a lock, but if they lose a few they'll need to win now as well.

It's foolish to chase the playoffs, as much as you'd like to get your players in there for a series.  It won't help if you make dumb moves and sacrifice the future. We'll only hate things more in 3 years if the Sabres try too hard to win today and end up sacrificing too much for the future. 

[Samson's Flow]

1 hour ago, MattPie said:

I forgot about the last win, I think when I looked it was 90.something. That 1.308 pace is 107 points over a season. It seems unlikely the Sabres are going to be one of the top teams in hockey over the next two months.

The full year pace of 107 gives good perspective as to just how hard it will be to reach 97 points. Thanks

[Samson's Flow]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

Make that 4 points now.

We still have a game in hand on Pittsburgh, so it isn't 4 just yet

[MattPie]

14 minutes ago, Samson's Flow said:

The full year pace of 107 gives good perspective as to just how hard it will be to reach 97 points. Thanks

The 10-game records help too: 6-3-1, 5-1-3. That's a lot more wins than losses.