Buffalo Bills 2019-2020

[triumph_communes]

18 hours ago, Gatorman0519 said:

This year we are playing with house money.  The roster is not complete yet and McDermott even said so.  

Yeah I get it, 50 mil in cap next year is going to be nice.  Plus a draft loaded with WR.  Nothing really Beane could've done differently.  Some of our defensive allstars are playing with borrowed time though.

[Doohicksie]

My 2 cents worth about the 2 point conversion:

The probability of making it does not substantially change whether you do it on the first TD or the second.  You're going to have to convert one and if you don't it's game over either way.... BUT if you know that you've missed it, as mentioned upthread, you can adjust your strategy to go for two more scores.  Yes, it's unlikely, but instead of a full kickoff you can run your onsides kick.

But really, don't look at the downside.  Look at the upside.  The Bills made the 2-point conversion on their first touchdown.  If they had managed to score the second touchdown, they then have the option to attempt another 2-point conversion and avoid OT altogether, if that's what they want to do.  That seems really reckless, but think about it this way:  If they had scored the TD at the end, do they have a better chance of winning the game by going to OT, or by converting the 2-pointer?  Against a superior opponent like Baltimore, I would say it would arguably make sense to just try to push ahead and win the game in regulation.

If you kick the PAT after the first touchdown, that option isn't even on the table.

Edited December 9, 2019 by Doohickie

[WildCard]

23 minutes ago, inkman said:

The Ravens were sending 6/7 all day.  How are 5 linemen supposed to block them?  In my eyes, it was a scheme issue. The Bills should have kept more blockers in to protect or design super quick patterns. 

Yeah I could not understand how that continued all day and there was no change in the game plan. Set up some screens or quick slants or anything other than letting him drop back and get harassed 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Do we have an OLine issue or were many of the sacks Allen’s fault or coverage sacks? A couple looked like serious missed assignments.

Edited December 9, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[That Aud Smell]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Do we have an OLine issue or were many of the sacks Allen’s fault or coverage sacks? A couple looked like serious missed assignments.

IIRC, there were 2 or 3 sacks that seemed mostly like Allen's fault. These were instances where he waited too long (needed to dump it off or somehow throw it away), moving laterally toward pressure rather than stepping up in the pocket, and such.

Moral victories are largely meaningless, but the Bills somehow hanging in there against the class of the league is somewhat encouraging.

Also, I'm not going to read through it, but lulz at the fact that there's some sort of debate over whether the Bills did the right thing by going for 2 when they did. 

[WildCard]

6 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Moral victories are largely meaningless

I disagree with this. I think any sort of victory is pretty big

[That Aud Smell]

6 minutes ago, WildCard said:

I disagree with this. I think any sort of victory is pretty big

[WildCard]

31 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Playing the two best teams in the AFC to one score games is pretty big for any team, let alone a young one 

[SwampD]

Can anyone explain why the CBS logo changed to the Star Trek logo every time it wiped off the screen in all of its promos yesterday?

[triumph_communes]

Scoring 2 on the first TD means they could've gone for the win on the second if they felt the desire to.  Silliest thing to get worked up about.

[Lanny]

1 minute ago, SwampD said:

Can anyone explain why the CBS logo changed to the Star Trek logo every time it wiped off the screen in all of its promos yesterday?

CBS Streaming service carries Star Trek Discovery and other shows are in development. 

[...]

2 hours ago, WildCard said:

Yeah I could not understand how that continued all day and there was no change in the game plan. Set up some screens or quick slants or anything other than letting him drop back and get harassed 

To me this was the key to the loss. Allen was a punching bag out there and no adjustments were made to fix that. We all also seem to have receivers who can't/won't improvise, as in they run their routes and then do nothing to get open afterward in the rare moments Allen had time to throw. 

FWIW, despite the numerous flaws in the Bills' game, I thought they competed against the Ravens. The Bills' defense was pretty good. If the offense could have stepped it up a little, it would have been a lot closer, maybe a win.

[shrader]

1 hour ago, WildCard said:

Playing the two best teams in the AFC to one score games is pretty big for any team, let alone a young one 

But both of those games were at home.  I'm not so sure I can buy into the concept of a moral victory if it occurs on your own field, when you have those advantages that you're not going to get anywhere else.

[WildCard]

6 minutes ago, shrader said:

But both of those games were at home.  I'm not so sure I can buy into the concept of a moral victory if it occurs on your own field, when you have those advantages that you're not going to get anywhere else.

I doubt the players see it like that honestly. They see that they stuck with those teams and had a final drive to win it in both games, regardless of where it was. Especially the Pats because Allen went out 

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, WildCard said:

Playing the two best teams in the AFC to one score games is pretty big for any team, let alone a young one 

Ah, I see. You were being earnest. Okay.

I do mean it, generally speaking: Moral victories and $4 (is it $5 now?) will get you a fancy cup of coffee. But, I do agree ...

13 minutes ago, ... said:

I thought they competed against the Ravens. The Bills' defense was pretty good. If the offense could have stepped it up a little, it would have been a lot closer, maybe a win.

They certainly did compete! Shoot - if the Ravens d-back hadn't made a (very) good play on that last pass - the game's tied. (After a marvelous acting job by Beasley, btw.) I trust that the Bills got the look they wanted with John Brown there -- essentially one on one coverage, no help coming from the other side. Really good play by the corner there.

Also bear in mind: If the Bills send that game to OT, they would have at least secured a point for the wild card race.

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, WildCard said:

Playing the two best teams in the AFC to one score games is pretty big for any team, let alone a young one 

Also: Aren't the Bills one of the league's oldest teams?

[WildCard]

2 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Also: Aren't the Bills one of the league's oldest teams?

Maybe, I'm not sure. The core is young though

[That Aud Smell]

1 minute ago, WildCard said:

Maybe, I'm not sure. The core is young though

That's fair - there is a young core.

Guys like Gore and Alexander bring up the average age, I reckon. I think the Bills are among the league's 10 older teams, fwiw.

[Weave]

15 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

That's fair - there is a young core.

Guys like Gore and Alexander bring up the average age, I reckon. I think the Bills are among the league's 10 older teams, fwiw.

Surrounding a young core with cagey vets.  Whoda thunk it?

I’ll show  myself out.

[shrader]

1 hour ago, WildCard said:

I doubt the players see it like that honestly. They see that they stuck with those teams and had a final drive to win it in both games, regardless of where it was. Especially the Pats because Allen went out 

The players would be the absolute last ones to be thinking about a so called moral victory.  That's a concept that exists solely to let the fans sleep at night.

[WildCard]

6 minutes ago, shrader said:

The players would be the absolute last ones to be thinking about a so called moral victory.  That's a concept that exists solely to let the fans sleep at night.

I disagree. Knowing they can hang with the two best teams they'll see in the playoffs is bog for their mentality

[sodbuster]

I'm gonna file this under "totally unexpected."

[That Aud Smell]

^

I read a bit about that. Something doesn't add up. The crew from New England had credentials from Cleveland? And they were in Patriots gear? Why on earth would Belichick & Co. cheat in such an obvious manner? ... Concerning the Bengals, no less! 

[Randall Flagg]

I've come around on the folly of thinking it was an "error" to go for 2 where we did, as in affecting our chances at a win in a big way, but I still wouldn't have done it. The focus on end-of-drive scenarios doesn't do it for me when we are talking about this game against this defense, because we struggled so much in moving the ball. Going for one completely ensures that one more TD drive gives you the chance to tie the game. This is a tall order in itself, as we only had one all day. I place tremendous value in guaranteeing this effective four minute drill for our young offense in this kind of moment. Success or failure, it's invaluable material for Josh and a young offensive core. 
 

The upside of going for two early does not functionally improve this DRIVE situation, even if it helps us by about 40% in a one-off two yard play at the end of it. We still require the same touchdown drive in the same amount of time - it doesn't make THIS part easier, which is the most important part of the day (because as we went on to show, we weren't quite capable of doing this). However, the downside of going for two there is a 40% chance at the game ending, and functionally removing the opportunity of a young offense to go through that last drive, which brought value even if it was unsuccessful, because again, it would require two fast stops and in the best case scenario give us a max of ~3:45 to go down the field twice - closing off much of the playbook. If we had a vet QB and a vet roster, old hat in big games against strong opponents? Sure, take that chance now and try to win it with another 2 point conversion later. But I'd choose to play it safe early and guarantee that Josh gets this drive with all his plays and time on the clock, rather than a 40% chance of effectively ending the game. I think we're better that this last drive had happened going forward, than we would have been in the other case, presuming worst case scenarios for the 2 pointer in both cases. Because this case got Josh a 4 minute drill against the best team in the league. 

2 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

Scoring 2 on the first TD means they could've gone for the win on the second if they felt the desire to.  Silliest thing to get worked up about.

It is amazing how you call every discussion that takes place on this forum that you don't care that much about "getting worked up" and "getting emotional" and "freaking out"

nobody is doing any of this, and this is a sports forum, we talk about sh*t, deal with it 

Edited December 9, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[shrader]

43 minutes ago, WildCard said:

I disagree. Knowing they can hang with the two best teams they'll see in the playoffs is bog for their mentality

Just wait until you hear the expletives fly the first time anyone asks them about "almost winning".