GDT: Sabres vs. Wild, 7PM EST, 2019-02-05

[That Aud Smell]

14 minutes ago, klos1963 said:

I'm not quite sure how to assess his play. The skill set is obvious and exciting, but the mistakes are often. Waits to long to react defensively, many bonehead passes in his zone, gets caught out of position a lot. I know he's only 18, still learning, but he's nowhere near the best player on the team. I'm not down on him in the least, and the encouraging part is that he is pretty effective despite the many mistakes.

I did engage in some hyperbole.

But nowhere near? He's arguably our best d-man, his mistakes notwithstanding. Travis Yost did a solid piece for TBN elucidating that earlier this week.

[nfreeman]

57 minutes ago, WildCard said:

That is a terrible opinion my man

You sit on a throne of lies!

[woods-racer]

27 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

You sit on a throne of lies!

 

It's called Philadelphia.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

1 minute ago, woods-racer said:

 

It's called Philadelphia.

Hey, man. I thought we straightened that all out for you?

[woods-racer]

Just now, New Scotland (NS) said:

Hey, man. I thought we straightened that all out for you?

I'm really hard to train.

 

 

 

 

The ball is on the tee...…..

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

Is he already the best player on the team? If he's not, he's getting there - rapidly.

 

I love Dahlin's attitude and his skill set. I think there is a good chance he will be better than Eichel and Perreault, long term.

But he is 18 and it shows. Judged solely on his play this year, he is extremely inconsistent. He has made more gaffes than any other defenceman on the team. He's so talented, he often is able to clean up his messes. And he makes many good plays that are beyond the ability of his teammates to make.

Right now, he is a boom or bust 2nd-pairing NHL defenceman and that is OK. Given the fact he is still 18, it is actually ***** incredible.

But right now he is nowhere near the best player on this team.

I do remain convinced he will be.

[That Aud Smell]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

I love Dahlin's attitude and his skill set. I think there is a good chance he will be better than Eichel and Perreault, long term.

But he is 18 and it shows. Judged solely on his play this year, he is extremely inconsistent. He has made more gaffes than any other defenceman on the team. He's so talented, he often is able to clean up his messes. And he makes many good plays that are beyond the ability of his teammates to make.

Right now, he is a boom or bust 2nd-pairing NHL defenceman and that is OK. Given the fact he is still 18, it is actually ***** incredible.

But right now he is nowhere near the best player on this team.

I do remain convinced he will be.

This is all good stuff.

I'll ask again, though, in response to "nowhere near": All told and taking everything in balance, who on the team is a better hockey player than Dahlin right now? I can name a few off the top of my head, and then the process grinds to a halt.

[Stoner]

5 hours ago, inkman said:

It will be if people insist on treating him as some sort of diety. He's good but if I'm watching a game and he barfs all over himself, I'm not going to ignore it. 

The "thing" I'm talking about is folks saying, "Where are the Dahlin critics?" after he makes a good play. There are no Dahlin critics. Bogo, now he has critics. Semantics, maybe.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

This is all good stuff.

I'll ask again, though, in response to "nowhere near": All told and taking everything in balance, who on the team is a better hockey player than Dahlin right now? I can name a few off the top of my head, and then the process grinds to a halt.

Well, if the question is "who is the Sabre you LEAST want to somehow lock himself in a closet and miss game 7 of Sabres vs Tampa this April?" -- I think the answer is Jack, then Dahlin.

[That Aud Smell]

29 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Well, if the question is "who is the Sabre you LEAST want to somehow lock himself in a closet and miss game 7 of Sabres vs Tampa this April?" -- I think the answer is Jack, then Dahlin.

Well-turned.

Skinner and Reinhart are obvious candidates to come before Dahlin. But I think a fair argument can be made that the order is as you suggest.

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

This is all good stuff.

I'll ask again, though, in response to "nowhere near": All told and taking everything in balance, who on the team is a better hockey player than Dahlin right now? I can name a few off the top of my head, and then the process grinds to a halt.

 

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

Well, if the question is "who is the Sabre you LEAST want to somehow lock himself in a closet and miss game 7 of Sabres vs Tampa this April?" -- I think the answer is Jack, then Dahlin.

I think the answer speaks more about our lack of "good" NHL hockey players than the excellence of Dahlin.

Based in Freeman's excellent ground rules:

1) Jack Eichel by a mile; everything this team does goes through him.

2) Sam Reinhart by a considerable margin; plays so well in traffic, does all the heady little things Dahlin does with fewer mistakes, makes everyone he plays with better.

3) Jeff Skinner by a considerable margin. Elite goal scorer with clutch credibility.

4) Rasmus Ristolainen by a smaller margin. Can't pass like Dahlin and lacks his creativity, but still provides a similar level of offence; matches up much better against power forwards, protects the puck better, can kill penalties, is much better equipped for the heavy game and has proven big-play ability.

You could also make a case that McCabe and Bogosian's greater utility in the defensive zone and the physical game, particularly the PK, balance out Dahlin's superiority creating offence and on the breakout, but that's not worth arguing.

Basically, all of Dahlin's "flaws" relate to being a boy playing against men — not having the strength or experience to impose his will on the game, or, conversely stop opponents from doing the same. And you know that will come.

He's not there yet, but its scary how good he can be.

[That Aud Smell]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think the answer speaks more about our lack of "good" NHL hockey players than the excellence of Dahlin.

4) Rasmus Ristolainen by a smaller margin. Can't pass like Dahlin and lacks his creativity, but still provides a similar level of offence; matches up much better against power forwards, protects the puck better, can kill penalties, is much better equipped for the heavy game and has proven big-play ability.

Agreed on your first point.

With regard to Risto, I'm basically back to seeing him as the player I saw him as (huh?) before his role in the magical (and I mean *magical*, as in unusual and not sustainable) run. Gun to the head, forced to choose right now, I'm taking Dahlin over Risto as a d-man the team can't do without.

Do you follow Sean Tierney? I don't rely on him as some sort of gospel truth, but I do find it interesting when his charts match what I'm seeing (or what I think I see). Here's one:

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I predict that in 5 to 7 years we will be having a discussion concerning whether Dahlin was the greatest Sabre ever, God willing, of course.

[That Aud Smell]

2 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

I predict that in 5 to 7 years we will be having a discussion concerning whether Dahlin was the greatest Sabre ever, God willing, of course.

Eesh. Maybe is at that point in time? Hopefully.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

2 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Eesh. Maybe is at that point in time? Hopefully.

I hope is is correct.

[darksabre]

7 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Agreed on your first point.

With regard to Risto, I'm basically back to seeing him as the player I saw him as (huh?) before his role in the magical (and I mean *magical*, as in unusual and not sustainable) run. Gun to the head, forced to choose right now, I'm taking Dahlin over Risto as a d-man the team can't do without.

Do you follow Sean Tierney? I don't rely on him as some sort of gospel truth, but I do find it interesting when his charts match what I'm seeing (or what I think I see). Here's one:

The Isles one is interesting wrt the Lehner thread...

 

[inkman]

2 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

The "thing" I'm talking about is folks saying, "Where are the Dahlin critics?" after he makes a good play. There are no Dahlin critics. Bogo, now he has critics. Semantics, maybe.

Ah I'm kinda dense 

[Stoner]

45 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

I hope is is correct.

 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

Agreed on your first point.

With regard to Risto, I'm basically back to seeing him as the player I saw him as (huh?) before his role in the magical (and I mean *magical*, as in unusual and not sustainable) run. Gun to the head, forced to choose right now, I'm taking Dahlin over Risto as a d-man the team can't do without.

Do you follow Sean Tierney? I don't rely on him as some sort of gospel truth, but I do find it interesting when his charts match what I'm seeing (or what I think I see). Here's one:

Eye test also supports this.

I think Rasmus the younger is much better in transition, with or without the puck and the gap between their breakout passing is very wide. He has a much better skill set, especially the way he processes the game. Risto has tunnel vision and very little subtlety.

Conversely, Risto always battles and rarely gets overpowered with or without the puck. It won't matter once Dahlin fully harnesses his inner Lidstrom, but until he adds 15 pounds and gets 150 games under his belt, Dahlin will get overpowered by the Ovechkin's and outquicked by the Marners more frequently than Risto will. It's a man vs boy scenario.

[PerreaultForever]

11 hours ago, inkman said:

Did I say anything that didn't indicate long term success?  He looked freaking awesome on that play that didn't amount to anything. I'm just not gonna turn a blind eye to the mistakes. Pilut was manhandled repeatedly by Minnesota, he deserves just as much if not more criticism. These guys aren't infallible. We are suffering through their growing pains. Although at 24, what we see with Pilut might be what we get. 

Exactly. 18 & 24. You can't (or at least shouldn't) measure them the same. Cut the kid some slack and be awed by his brilliance, that's all I'm asking for. 

[dudacek]

On 2/6/2019 at 1:05 PM, That Aud Smell said:

Agreed on your first point.

With regard to Risto, I'm basically back to seeing him as the player I saw him as (huh?) before his role in the magical (and I mean *magical*, as in unusual and not sustainable) run. Gun to the head, forced to choose right now, I'm taking Dahlin over Risto as a d-man the team can't do without.

Do you follow Sean Tierney? I don't rely on him as some sort of gospel truth, but I do find it interesting when his charts match what I'm seeing (or what I think I see). Here's one:

I'm not picking on Pilut and Dahlin, but I thought of this chart when Pilut got absolutely worked along the wall for 30 seconds of continuous Carolina possession, and later when Dahlin was standing, head spinning, in front, without a man, or a clue which one to take for the good five seconds leading up to a third period goal.

I'm not sure which chart measures success winning pucks along the defensive wall, or boxing out, or tying up your man in front, but I doubt it is this flattering..

[SwampD]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

I'm not picking on Pilut and Dahlin, but I thought of this chart when Pilut got absolutely worked along the wall for 30 seconds of continuous Carolina possession, and later when Dahlin was standing, head spinning, in front, without a man, or a clue which one to take for the good five seconds leading up to a third period goal.

I'm not sure which chart measures success winning pucks along the defensive wall, or boxing out, or tying up your man in front, but I doubt it is this flattering..

This is my problem with stats and the people who follow them blindly. Stats are woefully incomplete with regard to defensive play.. There is no stat for that and it’s why us dinosaurs who trust our “eye test” question whenever someone tells us that Pilut is one of our best defensemen. 

There is more to playing defense than zone entries and exits. Every once in a while you have to bash someone to get them to move from the front of your net.

[Samson's Flow]

On 2/6/2019 at 2:08 PM, nfreeman said:

Well, if the question is "who is the Sabre you LEAST want to somehow lock himself in a closet and miss game 7 of Sabres vs Tampa this April?" -- I think the answer is Jack, then Dahlin.

Ah the old "Jay McKee staph infection" scenario!

[Samson's Flow]

16 hours ago, SwampD said:

This is my problem with stats and the people who follow them blindly. Stats are woefully incomplete with regard to defensive play.. There is no stat for that and it’s why us dinosaurs who trust our “eye test” question whenever someone tells us that Pilut is one of our best defensemen. 

There is more to playing defense than zone entries and exits. Every once in a while you have to bash someone to get them to move from the front of your net.

Yes but to clarify if you read the axis of the chart, Pilut and Dahlin are our two best defensemen at exiting the zone with possession, which is used as a proxy for offensive ability. In that same manner, they also rank highly in the y axis of break up % which I would say is true, in that they are deft at intercepting passes and/or clean stick checks. The y axis is not for example "net front tie ups" or "board battles won", which they would be much poorer at given their skill set.

I don't buy into the only thing you need to be able to do well to be a quality NHL defenseman is exiting the zone and breaking up rushes, but it is interesting none-the-less.

[SwampD]

1 hour ago, Samson's Flow said:

Yes but to clarify if you read the axis of the chart, Pilut and Dahlin are our two best defensemen at exiting the zone with possession, which is used as a proxy for offensive ability. In that same manner, they also rank highly in the y axis of break up % which I would say is true, in that they are deft at intercepting passes and/or clean stick checks. The y axis is not for example "net front tie ups" or "board battles won", which they would be much poorer at given their skill set.

I don't buy into the only thing you need to be able to do well to be a quality NHL defenseman is exiting the zone and breaking up rushes, but it is interesting none-the-less.

I agree with all of that. I've been shown other charts trying to convince me that Pilut is better than I think he is, as well.

I just find it interesting that when the Eye Test is in conflict with the stats (ie Risto and Pilut), certain people trust the numbers while others trust their eyes. I think they can both be correct, but it makes me think that the stats are either flawed or incomplete.