Jason Botterill: Is he a good or bad GM?

[Drunkard]

18 hours ago, DHawerchuk10 said:

I didn't do the math, but I don't think the bolded could be on the same team.  In other words, if ROR was kept, it is very likely that Skinner would not have been acquired due to cap reasons. 

The cap hits of Berglund and Sobotka came out to roughly the same cap hit of O'Reilly.

[Drunkard]

9 minutes ago, jame said:

Botts has done well in selling the fan base on a vision... that's for sure. 

Yeah, Botterill has the vast majority of the fan base firmly in his camp despite some mixed results at best. Not unlike the knucklehead running the other Buffalo sports team and his trust the process nonsense.

[Carmel Corn]

18 minutes ago, klos1963 said:

How can someone who is not all that effective, not currently playing to expectations be a steal? He was set up to be our 2nd line center,  a lot was expected out of him.  And a #8 pick is expected to be a valuable player, how do you steal someone @ 8 unless they are a superstar?  Again with Pilut, he made the team, sort of, he's been a healthy scratch because he hasn't been playing well in our own zone.  Not a steal.

I expect both of them to do well eventually, but just saying they aren't steals. That's all.

Maybe Mittelstadt looks like a "steal" at #8 in comparison to what we got so far at #8 from the previous year (Nylander)?

[jame]

6 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

Yeah, Botterill has the vast majority of the fan base firmly in his camp despite some mixed results at best. Not unlike the knucklehead running the other Buffalo sports team and his trust the process nonsense.

Bought himself additional years of job security... it was a smart move, and the long re-rebuild certainly could work, and that would make him a good GM (if you can't build a winner with Eichel and Dahlin, you're an all time awful GM).

But I'll never be convinced we had to go down a longer, more painful path... especially when the driving justification for that path is some intangible narrative built to explain why Botts first year was an massive step backwards.... 

[Drunkard]

8 minutes ago, jame said:

Bought himself additional years of job security... it was a smart move, and the long re-rebuild certainly could work, and that would make him a good GM (if you can't build a winner with Eichel and Dahlin, you're an all time awful GM).

But I'll never be convinced we had to go down a longer, more painful path... especially when the driving justification for that path is some intangible narrative built to explain why Botts first year was an massive step backwards.... 

I agree. If he had kept O'Reilly while still managing to luck into Skinner we would have had 2 legitimate scoring lines with some combination of Skinner, Eichel, O'Reilly, Reinhart, and whoever (personally I would have played Mittelstadt at wing in the top 6 this season while giving the last spot to whichever guy performed the best in training camp/preseason.

I think that lineup with the improvement in the defense and goaltending would have us in a much better position than where they are now.

Edited January 30, 2019 by Drunkard

[shrader]

9 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

Maybe Mittelstadt looks like a "steal" at #8 in comparison to what we got so far at #8 from the previous year (Nylander)?

Draft pools vary from year to year.  But anyway, I have a hard time calling any early first round draft pick a steal.  They're supposed to be the cream of the crop.  There's the crap shoot element where some will make it and others won't, but "steal" is a bit over the top. 

[nfreeman]

31 minutes ago, jame said:

Acquiring Skinner was lucky because Skinner had a full NTC and would only waive it to go home (Toronto) or close to home (Buffalo). 

...

even if they were dead set on trading ROR, they should've pivoted when they won the lottery. You see if talent solves the problem before making the moronic decision to trade talent to fix culture (a decision that other struggling franchises have also made - Edm/Hall)

...

You complain about the wasted cap space of the murray era.... but here we are 2 years in to the Botts era and we've got Scandella, Pominville, Hunwick, Beaulieu, Sobotka chewing up over 18 million in cap space... and that's after he lucked in to getting Berglund's horrifying contract off the books....

Regarding Skinner -- while Skinner waiving his NTC was certainly fortunate, JB still gets credit IMHO for making the deal happen and not giving up too much.

Regarding ROR and trading talent to improve culture -- other teams have made the same decision (like Winnipeg with Kane and Philly with Carter and Richards).  Sometimes it's necessary.  Again, there is no way for us to know whether this was one of those cases.  Clearly there were real issues -- I assume you agree that the team grievously underachieved last year?

Regarding the cap space --

- Scandella's contract ($4MM) is reasonable.

- Pommer's deal expires after this year and was part of the price to get Scandella and to get rid of Ennis' contract (which was more or less as bad as Pommer's).

- Hunwick's contract expires after next year, is not a huge number at $2.25MM and was part of the price to acquire Sheary.

- Sobotka is overpaid at $3MM but his deal expires after next year and he adds some value.

- Beaulieu's deal expires after this year, isn't too big at $2.4MM and was a reasonable gamble to take on a guy with some upside, for a team that was desperate for upgrades at D.

[jame]

Just now, Drunkard said:

I agree. If he had kept O'Reilly while still managing to luck into Skinner we would have had 2 legitimate scoring lines with some combination of Skinner, Eichel, O'Reilly, Reinhart, and whoever (personally I would have played Mittelstadt at wing in the top 6 this season while giving the last spot to whichever guy performed the best in training camp/preseason.

I think that lineup with the improvement in the defense would have us in a much better position than where they are now.

1000% agree...

the team below is playing Toronto in the 1st round of the playoffs this year, and continues towards contender in the years to follow....

• Skinner-Eichel-XXXX
• XXXX-ROR-Reinhart
• Erod-Mittelstadt-XXX
• XXXX-Larsson-Girgs
• Dahlin-Bogo
• Pilut-Risto
• YYYY-YYYY
• Hutton/Ullmark
• XXXX = short term, Okposo, Poms, Wilson, Smith, Elie.... Long term: Olofsson, Nylander, etc
• YYYY = short term, McCabe, Beaulieu, Scandella, etc.... long term: Guhle, Borgen, etc

[jame]

2 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Regarding Skinner -- while Skinner waiving his NTC was certainly fortunate, JB still gets credit IMHO for making the deal happen and not giving up too much.

Regarding ROR and trading talent to improve culture -- other teams have made the same decision (like Winnipeg with Kane and Philly with Carter and Richards).  Sometimes it's necessary.  Again, there is no way for us to know whether this was one of those cases.  Clearly there were real issues -- I assume you agree that the team grievously underachieved last year?

Regarding the cap space --

- Scandella's contract ($4MM) is reasonable.

- Pommer's deal expires after this year and was part of the price to get Scandella and to get rid of Ennis' contract (which was more or less as bad as Pommer's).

- Hunwick's contract expires after next year, is not a huge number at $2.25MM and was part of the price to acquire Sheary.

- Sobotka is overpaid at $3MM but his deal expires after next year and he adds some value.

- Beaulieu's deal expires after this year, isn't too big at $2.4MM and was a reasonable gamble to take on a guy with some upside, for a team that was desperate for upgrades at D.

Philly traded Carter and Richards to improve culture... the outcome was Carter and Richards went on to lead LA to cups, and Philly has been a disaster ever since.... Kane wasn't one of the two best players on Winnipeg... he played a 3rd line winger role when he was there... subtracting him didn't crater their lineup.

 

[dudacek]

43 minutes ago, jame said:

Acquiring Skinner was lucky because Skinner had a full NTC and would only waive it to go home (Toronto) or close to home (Buffalo). 

And Toronto was lucky that Tavares had weird taste in pajamas.

You can try to “yeah, but” pretty much any move any GM makes, just like people are trying to do with the O’Reilly trade being on the Pegulas, or a forced deadline.

The fact of the matter is that Botterill acquired the 2nd leading goal-scorer in the entire league for 2nd-rounder and a bag of pucks. It objectively was one of the most lopsided trades in Sabres history, right up there with Robert, Hasek and Satan.

Handwaving the “good” while fixating on the “bad” is how you get called out for having an agenda.

[jame]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

And Toronto was lucky that Tavares had weird taste in pajamas.

You can try to “yeah, but” pretty much any move any GM makes, just like people are trying to do with the O’Reilly trade being on the Pegulas, or a forced deadline.

The fact of the matter is that Botterill acquired the 2nd leading goal-scorer in the entire league for 2nd-rounder and a bag of pucks. It objectively was one of the most lopsided trades in Sabres history, right up there with Robert, Hasek and Satan.

Handwaving the “good” while fixating on the “bad” is how you get called out for having an agenda.

Maybe luck is the wrong word.... how's "fortunate" work for you?

Toronto is very fortunate that a superstar became an UFA and wanted to come home...

Tampa was very fortunate that they have no state income tax and thus were able to keep Stamkos at significantly below market value (cap)...

Buffalo was very fortunate that an elite player with full control of his trade destination, actually wanted to come to Buffalo because it was close to his family in toronto

Botts doesn't deserve a pat on the back for a scenario unfolding that literally anyone with a brain could've gotten right

Botts has done other good things that he deserves recognition for... not every GM would've found Pilut and got him signed, not every GM would've taken Mittelstadt over Vilardi... he got it right. 

Edited January 30, 2019 by jame

[dudacek]

Buffalo was also fortunate that their GM was able to convince the Hurricanes that trading their best scorer immediately was a better option than riding his contract year into a  playoff run or auctioning him off at the deadline, and that he should do it for Pu and 2nd rather than Guhle or Nylander and a first, while at the same time convincing Skinner and his agent that Buffalo was worth waiving for.

[Scottysabres]

I believe Botterill is doing a good job. He got rid of that locker room cancer ROR, brought in a 1st, Tage Thompson for him. Brought in Skinner, the leagues second leading goal scorer this season, for a 2nd and some other C stuff. Is developing the wingers in Rochester and not forcing them up before both they and this roster is ready.

I do think Mitts was rushed, Tage could've seen some time in Rochester, but overall, I give Botterill a B+ currently.

Like I said, thank god he got rid of that locker room negative Nancy cancer and changed the culture. We dodged a bullet on that one.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Buffalo was also fortunate that their GM was able to convince the Hurricanes that trading their best scorer immediately was a better option than riding his contract year into a  playoff run or auctioning him off at the deadline, and that he should do it for Pu and 2nd rather than Guhle or Nylander and a first, while at the same time convincing Skinner and his agent that Buffalo was worth waiving for.

Thanks for taking up the heavy lifting on this.

[Samson's Flow]

22 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Buffalo was also fortunate that their GM was able to convince the Hurricanes that trading their best scorer immediately was a better option than riding his contract year into a  playoff run or auctioning him off at the deadline, and that he should do it for Pu and 2nd rather than Guhle or Nylander and a first, while at the same time convincing Skinner and his agent that Buffalo was worth waiving for.

This is not inconsequential. This is good GMing.

I certainly don't think that Carolina called up JBotts while he was sitting on a yacht and said - i'd like to trade Skinner to you and in return give me some mid round picks and Cliff Pu. (Intentionally using the Shady trade as a reported example of a "trade falling into your laps")

[shrader]

24 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Buffalo was also fortunate that their GM was able to convince the Hurricanes that trading their best scorer immediately was a better option than riding his contract year into a  playoff run or auctioning him off at the deadline, and that he should do it for Pu and 2nd rather than Guhle or Nylander and a first, while at the same time convincing Skinner and his agent that Buffalo was worth waiving for.

Is he lucky that Don Waddell is such a horrible GM or should he be credited for taking advantage of that horrible GM?  This specific portion of the discussion seems a bit pointless to me.  Luck or not, he still needs to be judged by what he has done and this trade is in fact something he did.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, jame said:

Philly traded Carter and Richards to improve culture... the outcome was Carter and Richards went on to lead LA to cups, and Philly has been a disaster ever since.... Kane wasn't one of the two best players on Winnipeg... he played a 3rd line winger role when he was there... subtracting him didn't crater their lineup.

 

Philly hasn't been a disaster.  They made the playoffs and advanced the season after the trade, and have made the playoffs 4 times in the 7 seasons since the trade.  And the Kings terminated Richards' contract the first chance they got (and ended up having to settle with Richards for doing so) -- were they stupid for dumping talent to improve culture?

As for Kane -- the Jets missed the playoffs for 3 seasons in a row before trading him, then made the playoffs immediately after trading him (then missed for 2 more seasons, then made the conf. finals).  So maybe dumping him did improve their culture.  And if your reference to "cratering their lineup" is meant to imply that trading ROR has cratered the Sabres' lineup -- I don't see how you can assert this when the Sabres are about a million times better than they were last year.

Do you or do you not agree that the Sabres underachieved last year? 

[...]

11 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Do you or do you not agree that the Sabres underachieved last year? 

Or the four (4) seasons prior to that (equaling the five [5] seasons prior all together)?

[woods-racer]

2 minutes ago, ... said:

Or the four (4) seasons prior to that (equaling the five [5] seasons prior all together)?

No, you're right they underachieved in the prior 5 years.

They should have lost more and got McDavid.

 

?

 

Edited January 30, 2019 by woods-racer

[Cascade Youth]

I don't see how you can argue that Botterill was lucky/"fortunate" re: Skinner but deserves full blame for things like ROR/Berglund losing their love for the sport.  Maybe Botterill was just "unfortunate" that those events occurred?  Just seems disingenuous to me to take a move that worked out well for Botts and call it "luck" - it exposes your entire position to a claim of bias.

Edited January 30, 2019 by Cascade Youth

[RonHextallsShoulderPads]

22 hours ago, jame said:

 

4. Scandella was... terrific last year? Out of the 133 defensemen who played at least 1000 ES minutes last year, Scandella was 128th in GF/60.... and 112th in CF/60.....

 

Who hurt you?

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, jame said:

Philly traded Carter and Richards to improve culture... the outcome was Carter and Richards went on to lead LA to cups, and Philly has been a disaster ever since.... Kane wasn't one of the two best players on Winnipeg... he played a 3rd line winger role when he was there... subtracting him didn't crater their lineup.

 

Blatantly untrue.

Philly traded Richards because he had a long deal and they got into trouble after they dumped all the money on  Bryzgalov. It was financial issues, not culture issues. 

As for Kane, he was drafted as the glory boy but played his way down the roster as he turned into a problem child. Winnipeg is where they are due to good trades and good drafting like Kyle Connor for example. 

If JBot is a bad GM for you, Murray must have been what, Satan?   You want the definition of a bad GM that's your poster boy. Colin White would have looked pretty good in the blue and gold or better yet Brock Boeser or even Konecny. Trading away your roster for draft picks and then giving away those draft picks is the definition of a bad GM. Worst GM EVER.

[Weave]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Philly hasn't been a disaster.  They made the playoffs and advanced the season after the trade, and have made the playoffs 4 times in the 7 seasons since the trade.  And the Kings terminated Richards' contract the first chance they got (and ended up having to settle with Richards for doing so) -- were they stupid for dumping talent to improve culture?

As for Kane -- the Jets missed the playoffs for 3 seasons in a row before trading him, then made the playoffs immediately after trading him (then missed for 2 more seasons, then made the conf. finals).  So maybe dumping him did improve their culture.  And if your reference to "cratering their lineup" is meant to imply that trading ROR has cratered the Sabres' lineup -- I don't see how you can assert this when the Sabres are about a million times better than they were last year.

Do you or do you not agree that the Sabres underachieved last year? 

A crater is a gaping hole.  2nd line center is a gaping hole.  We also now have an unexpected hole at wing.  While agreeing with little offered so far, I can agree with that trade being characterized as cratering the lineup.

[7+6=13]

5 hours ago, Drunkard said:

I agree. If he had kept O'Reilly while still managing to luck into Skinner we would have had 2 legitimate scoring lines with some combination of Skinner, Eichel, O'Reilly, Reinhart, and whoever (personally I would have played Mittelstadt at wing in the top 6 this season while giving the last spot to whichever guy performed the best in training camp/preseason.

I think that lineup with the improvement in the defense and goaltending would have us in a much better position than where they are now.

Agree or don't agree but they did not want Ryan O'Reilly on the team.  They also understood they had the cap room to replace him and weren't thinking so nearsighted as to worry about the playoffs this year. 

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

On 1/29/2019 at 1:31 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

Generally speaking we won't know for a couple of years until we know about his deals and draft picks, but there is a lot to like so far despite my anger of his slow reaction to replacing Berglund

 Excellent analysis.  I would add the moves and contracts JBots has negotiated gives us the cap space to sign someone like Skinner to a long-term deal (yes Berglund did help us here).  He also positioned the team to have a flexible and manageable salary structure 3-6 years from now.  We have 4 skaters on ELCs (Dahlin, Middlestat, Tage, Pilut) that all have the potential to be the cornerstones of this team when Jack, Sam, Skinner, start to fade.  We also have 4 1st round picks over the next two years, which will usher in another 1-3 potential cornerstones on ELCs.  

The team is better this year, and is poised to get even better going forward.  I just hope JBot evaluates talent the same way he manages the cap - like a boss.