Jason Botterill: Is he a good or bad GM?

[dudacek]

Ultimately you can only objectively judge a GM by wins and losses.

Looks likely Botterill will finish this season with the team’s best record in eight years and a mediocre standing measured against the rest of the league.

So for now the answer to the OP question can pretty much be whatever you want it to be.

[Beer]

I have complete trust in JBOT.  He has fixed the farm and is building from within.  As much as we’d like an overnight turnaround it’s not happening.   This team is young yet competitive.  Of course they have their off nights but that’s to be expected.  JBOT has a plan and I will give him time to execute on that plan.  

As for ROR...  People need to move on.  He’s gone.  Endless whining about what we got for him isn’t going to change reality. 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

One other note.  Many of us, dare I say most of us including me, wanted Larsson to be sent packing during the summer.  Granted Jbot had him under contract, but wisely kept him around and the team is better for it.   The guy seems to have finally accepted his role, along with Girgensons and the two of the them have been the base for a very effective 4th line.  

Sometimes the move you don't make can be just as important and the move you do make.

 

Edited January 29, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 hours ago, Drunkard said:

I'm still firmly in the camp that trading O'Reilly was stupid and I've felt that since I first heard it happened so it isn't hindsight.

I love Lord Casey (PBUH) as much as anyone, but it's clear that he wasn't ready the center the second line and he shouldn't have needed to be. So future ex GM Jason Botterill trades our 1B 50-60 point defensively responsible center who is great on faceoffs away for some cap dump forwards who earn close to the same money as O'Reilly (one with the same emo/depressive personality he was supposedly trying to purge from the roster to boot), a 1st round pick (in a year or two), and a prospect who seems to be more smoke than fire in Stupid First Name Thompson. Berglund then quits but at least we recoup the cap space and now our once formidable center depth seems non-existent. So now FXGMJB can continue to limp along with a weak center spine while he waits for Mittelstadt to develop or he can look to the market (FA and/or trade market) to get a new center. That replacement center will likely be a significant downgrade to O'Reilly or he will likely cost more than it would have to keep him. Not looking good and it feels like we are all but assured to piss away the ELC of Dahlin looking to find a replacement for O'Reilly.

On the plus side, he did luck into Dahlin and Skinner though. It's just hard to give him too much credit for either of those events because any idiot could have made those decisions.

 

In all actuality your post reeks of hindsight.....read your post and tell me which things you knew for a fact that Jbot, the scouting dept, hockey analysts, and even alot of fans on these boards didn't know at the time of the trade.

I'll even give you a starting point.....the bolded part....I agree that ROR was great at faceoffs. He finished last year at 60.1%. Do you know what Berglunds FO% was with the Sabres? 58.6%. Another point .....did you know Berglund was gonna just walk away from hockey at the time of the trade? Did you know that he was "emo/depressive personality" at the time of the trade? Do you want me to keep going because I could pick apart the rest of your post too?

[jame]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Generally speaking we won't know for a couple of years until we know about his deals and draft picks, but there is a lot to like so far despite my anger of his slow reaction to replacing Berglund

Positives

1) Dahlin - IMHO Jbot built a terrible team on purpose last season because he wanted a mini-tank and to help clear the dead weight cap hits..  No one will admit to it, especially after he acquired Scandella and Baloo, but how else do you explain signing Pouliot, Josefsson, Griffith, claiming Nolan, and keeping guys like Falk.  It worked and we got Dahlin.

2) Skinner - even if we trade him at the deadline, we'll likely get more then we gave up to get him.  However he'll likely be re-signed and soon

3) Pilut - this is a steal now with the potential to be a HR as early as next year.  Nice getting a potential top 4 D for nothing.

4) Scandella - what you say?  He was terrific last year and despite having an off year this year so far, he has mostly been a very good acquisiton for us.  Pommers also hasn't hurt.  While not a top 6 winger, he has given us some great games playing along with Jack, a calm professional voice in the lockerroom.  We gave us Foligno and Ennis to get him.  Ennis has now moved on and Foligno had 23 pts last year (for the 3rd year in a row) and is trending toward 17 pts this season.  Scandella, like Bogo this year, is likely to bounce back next season if he isn't traded.  Scandy played 121 for us and Pommers 125.  

5) Sheary - was acquired for a 4th rd pick with Hunwick.  Again, Jbot used our cap space to secure a solid player.  If we had a 2nd line center, we'd be getting more out of Sheary. With another year left on his deal, this trade could still blossom

6) Hutton - While he has struggled lately, my guess is he'll get back to the form we saw earlier in the year.  It would be nice if we played a little better D to help out Hutton and Ullmark.

7) Baloo - Really?  Yep.  We gave up a 3rd rd pick (a pick with about 18% chance of playing a season in the NHL) and have received 85 games to date.  He'll likely be traded at the deadline or over the summer and we'll likely get back a similar pick to what we gave up.

8.) Wilson - for a 5th rd pick. Again gave up virtually nothing for a player who helped us last year and if he had been healthy he would have helped us this season.  Don't be surprised if he helps us down the stretch.

9) Baptiste/Hudson trades - dumped two of TM/DR prospect who had no chance of making the Sabres and turned them into 2 AHL D who still may have a chance at the NHL.  Both are smart bets and have helped our D depth in the organization.  I'd like to see what Dougherty can do in Buffalo.

10) Carrier to LV so that we could protect Ullmark.  Any complaints?

11) Improvements in Roch promised and delivered.  (Should Taylor be the coach here?)

Jury is still out

1) Kane to SJ for O'Regan and a conditional 2nd.  I still think Jbot got fleeced on the deal, except that SJ re-signed Kane turning the 2nd into a 1st.  However O'Regan hasn't seen the NHL with us and won't.  There are rumors he is headed over-seas next season.  SJ's 1st will be late pick in 2019.  Odds are that we won't see value from this deal for another 2-4 years.

2) ROR to STl for Berglund, Sobotka, Thompson and a conditional 1st.  Thompson looks to have a future.  Odds right now say the 1st slips to 2020.  Sobotka and Berglund were cap dumps that were supposed to help our depth, improve our PK, score a little, give Mitts some protection win some faceoffs.  Oops.  Berglund went AWOL and took his cap hit with him, which is a long-term positive but short -term problem. Sobotka has been mediocre at best and still has another year on his deal, while ROR has had a great season for the Blues but hasn't reversed their fortunes either.  ROR was moved IMHO to clear the way for this to become Jack's team.  Still it left a huge gap in the roster that Jbot has yet to fill.  Best case for the pick is mid first this season or lottery potential in 2020.

3) Draft improvement - UPL, Oskari etc.. For the first time in 15 years it looks like we actually have an idea who to draft.  Mitts looks a steal at 8 (2017) and obviously Dahlin is future star, but drafting prowess comes from hitting on later picks.  If guys like Pekar, UPL, Oskari, Weissbach or others come through, this will be another feather in Jbot's cap.

4) PH - Jbot hired him.  I'm a fan of PH the player, and I like how much improvement we have seen in back end scoring.  Still the PP is a mess and the line combos aren't working.  Also lately the D haven't supported the goalies as they should.  

Mistakes

1) Bad depth signings - see Nolan, Josefson, Pouliot.

2) Deadline management - We seem to have an aggressive GM in the summer (Skinner, Sheary) and a cautious one at the deadline.  I felt he waited to long to move Kane last season and again has waited to long to replace Berglund. Other GM seems to get bigger deals done in the weeks ahead of the deadline (see: Muzzin deal) but not JBot. 

Bottomline:

This team was a joke when he got here. Locker room and cap issues on a bottom feeding them that had a terrible farm team, almost no D depth in the organization and few higher end prospects.  The Amerks are now one of the top teams in the AHL.  The Sabres are now competitive.  D depth has gone from a weakness to a strength.  Most of the bad contracts are gone or will be soon and the cap is no longer an issue.  However he still hasn't fully changed the losing culture in Buffalo and our NHL worst record in the last 23 games is a major concern.  So far Jbot's tenure is a success, but still no playoffs and I'm worried that he is going to blow this opportunity to get us into the playoffs this season.

 

 

4. Scandella was... terrific last year? Out of the 133 defensemen who played at least 1000 ES minutes last year, Scandella was 128th in GF/60.... and 112th in CF/60.....

 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

1 hour ago, Gatorman0519 said:

The Skinner trade was a homerun.  The O'Reilly trade was an absolute disaster.  Unless behind the scenes there was more to the story, trading O'Rielly was mind-blowingly stupid.  

There had to be some behind the scene issue(s).  Othewise it makes no sense to trade ROR.

[nfreeman]

1 minute ago, jame said:

 

4. Scandella was... terrific last year? Out of the 133 defensemen who played at least 1000 ES minutes last year, Scandella was 128th in GF/60.... and 112th in CF/60..... 

 

...for a team that was DFL!

Scandy was pretty good last year -- there were plenty of games in which he was their best defenseman. 

That trade wasn't a franchise-changer, but it was a solid trade to pick up a quality defenseman for whom the Sabres only had to give up a solid 3rd/4th line winger in Foligno and take one extra year of a bad contract (Pommer's deal had 1 more year than Ennis' -- but the Sabres have gotten more from Pommer than Minny got from Ennis -- so kinda a wash there). 

Scandy's had a disappointing year this year.  That doesn't mean it wasn't a good trade.

[jame]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Good thread.  @jame -- welcome.  Some of your posts are, as others have noted, a bit caustic, but hopefully that will improve over time, and so will Mittlestadt.  In any case your posts are knowledgeable and reasonable.

I don't think your (or anyone else's) posts about ROR can just ignore what seemed to be major locker room issues in the team last year.  Obviously it wasn't purely an on-ice hockey trade.  As I've stated previously, I am willing to give JB and Howie the benefit of the doubt on this as they were much closer to the situation than anyone here.

I also don't agree with you on Reino's contract, or that JB blundered in not paying Vegas to take KO or Moulson in the expansion draft.  I don't think you can make the assertion about Vegas without examining the cost that Vegas would've required -- and upon examination of the comparable deals, the cost would've been too high.

I think @GASabresIUFAN has nicely summarized the positive moves JB has made -- and there have been many.

However, your positions are mostly reasonable and well argued.  I am increasingly convinced that both Mitts and TT should be in Rochester.

There are going to be growing pains with a first-time GM, a first-time HC and a young team.  On balance I am pretty optimistic about this management team and the state of the franchise.

I'll give Mittelstadt the benefit of the doubt... he's certainly got more chance to improve over time, than I.... 

I don't see any reason to believe that their were "major" lockerroom issues... ROR was a grumpy loser. The lockerroom was sad. Guess what... you fix that by adding a generational defensemen... and an elite goal scorer... and upgrading your goaltending.... and then you inject some youth and speed.... while welcoming back some healthy NHL Blueliners... and then... YOU WIN!

Winning builds culture. Subtracting all stars does not.

And if you are dead set on trading an all star center... you definitely, under no circumstance, impose an artificial deadline over money. That's just crazy stupid.

Edited January 29, 2019 by jame

[Drunkard]

10 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

In all actuality your post reeks of hindsight.....read your post and tell me which things you knew for a fact that Jbot, the scouting dept, hockey analysts, and even alot of fans on these boards didn't know at the time of the trade.

I'll even give you a starting point.....the bolded part....I agree that ROR was great at faceoffs. He finished last year at 60.1%. Do you know what Berglunds FO% was with the Sabres? 58.6%. Another point .....did you know Berglund was gonna just walk away from hockey at the time of the trade? Did you know that he was "emo/depressive personality" at the time of the trade? Do you want me to keep going because I could pick apart the rest of your post too?

Pick away, buddy. The only part that was hindsight was Berglund going emo/quitter and in the long run that's actually a good thing for the organization since his cap hit comes off the books. O'Reilly was a 1B defensively responsible center and solid face off guy in Colorado before we traded for him and he was the same while he was here (if not even better over his time here). I and several others here called Berglund and Sobotka camp dumps when we found out they were included in the deal while others seemed to consider them valuable depth. I didn't like the trade then and I still don't like it. Berglund being solid on faceoffs doesn't mean all that much when he's slower, less talented, and far less productive. He was closer to Paul Gaustad (overpaid 3rd/4th line center that could win some faceoffs) than he was O'Reilly. Trading him gutted our center depth and it was obvious even at the time.

Edited January 29, 2019 by Drunkard

[nfreeman]

13 minutes ago, jame said:

I'll give Mittelstadt the benefit of the doubt... he's certainly got more chance to improve over time, than I.... 

I don't see any reason to believe that their were "major" lockerroom issues... ROR was a grumpy loser. The lockerroom was sad. Guess what... you fix that by adding a generational defensemen... and an elite goal scorer... and upgrading your goaltending.... and then you inject some youth and speed.... while welcoming back some healthy NHL Blueliners... and then... YOU WIN! 

Winning builds culture. Subtracting all stars does not.

And if you are dead set on trading an all star center... you definitely, under no circumstance, impose an artificial deadline over money. That's just crazy stupid.

I don't think we'll ever really know the locker room situation.  It definitely seemed to me (and I think many others) that the whole was much less than the sum of the parts last year.  In any case, I'm willing to defer to JB's (and presumably Howie's) judgment on this, and I think @Brawndo's point about 2 teams giving up on ROR is pretty compelling, although I can certainly understand your and @Drunkard's skepticism.

As for the $7.5MM -- YMMV of course, but I'm not going to dismiss it as a consideration when it's someone else's money.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

17 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

Pick away, buddy. The only part that was hindsight was Berglund going emo/quitter and in the long run that's actually a good thing for the organization since his cap hit comes off the books. O'Reilly was a 1B defensively responsible center and solid face off guy in Colorado before we traded for him and he was the same while he was here (if not even better over his time here). I and several others here called Berglund and Sobotka camp dumps when we found out they were included in the deal while others seemed to consider them valuable depth. I didn't like the trade then and I still don't like it. Berglund being solid on faceoffs doesn't mean all that much when he's slower, less talented, and far less productive. He was closer to Paul Gaustad (overpaid 3rd/4th line center that could win some faceoffs) than he was O'Reilly. Trading him gutted our center depth and it was obvious even at the time.

Just like any other subject....we could argue this for weeks and neither would get anywhere. But just an FYI.....I don't think anyone would claim to believe that Berglund by himself was going to replace O'Reilly. That's why there were more pieces to the trade coming back this way.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

6 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I don't think we'll ever really know the locker room situation.  It definitely seemed to me (and I think many others) that the whole was much less than the sum of the parts last year.  In any case, I'm willing to defer to JB's (and presumably Howie's) judgment on this, and I think @Brawndo's point about 2 teams giving up on ROR is pretty compelling, although I can certainly understand your and @Drunkard's skepticism.

As for the $7.5MM -- YMMV of course, but I'm not going to dismiss it as a consideration when it's someone else's money.

Another thing to consider is that if we paid that bonus ....would the deal ever get done and how much more would STL have been willing to pay if we did.

[GASabresIUFAN]

51 minutes ago, jame said:

 

4. Scandella was... terrific last year? Out of the 133 defensemen who played at least 1000 ES minutes last year, Scandella was 128th in GF/60.... and 112th in CF/60.....

 

Which makes him a top 4 defenseman on most NHL teams.  31 x 4 = 125.  

[jame]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Which makes him a top 4 defenseman on most NHL teams.  31 x 4 = 125.  

What? no... playing the minutes doesn't make the quality....

Sobotka isn't a top 6 forward, just because he's playing top 6 forward minutes

Edited January 29, 2019 by jame

[DHawerchuk10]

3 hours ago, jame said:

The future does look bright (thanks to Dahlin), but Botts pushed that bright future further down the timeline when he didn't have to (ROR). The hole he created could take years and/or painful amount of assets to repair.

This was the beginning of a contender level core:

Skinner-Eichel-XXXX

XXXX-ROR-Reinhart

XXXX-Mitts-XXXX

XXXX-Larsson-Girgs

Dahlin-XXXX

Pilut-Risto

XXXX-XXXX

Ullmark/Hutton

The center spine we had was foundational... he removed a pillar... and for practically nothing in return.

 

We had a Bergeron / Toews level center (on the ice) to play behind Eichel...  and now we have a huge hole and some moderate futures instead.

I didn't do the math, but I don't think the bolded could be on the same team.  In other words, if ROR was kept, it is very likely that Skinner would not have been acquired due to cap reasons. 

[jame]

Just now, DHawerchuk10 said:

I didn't do the math, but I don't think the bolded could be on the same team.  In other words, if ROR was kept, it is very likely that Skinner would not have been acquired due to cap reasons. 

Do the math. They certainly can... and we could've re-signed Skinner to  9 per, and given Reinhart 6 per long term... and it still would've been fine cap wise. 

Edited January 29, 2019 by jame

[DHawerchuk10]

1 minute ago, jame said:

Do the math. They certainly can... and we could've re-signed Skinner to  9 per, and given Reinhart 6 per long term... and it still would've been fine cap wise.

Perhaps in a perfect world, but I find that questionable with the acquisition of Sheary and Hunwick whom you most likely neglected to account for, whom were acquired prior to Skinner.  You can say we shouldn't have acquired them, but that's just not how it shook out in real time.

With all do respect, many of your scenarios are great in hindsight, but Botterill doesn't have that luxury.  With the exception of the O'Reilly deal, the majority of his moves were lauded at the time.  Overall I think the team is heading in the right direction, and I like what he is trying to build.  Sure, things can be improved on, but lets see what he does at the deadline.

[North Buffalo]

4 hours ago, jame said:

The future does look bright (thanks to Dahlin), but Botts pushed that bright future further down the timeline when he didn't have to (ROR). The hole he created could take years and/or painful amount of assets to repair.

This was the beginning of a contender level core:

Skinner-Eichel-XXXX

XXXX-ROR-Reinhart

XXXX-Mitts-XXXX

XXXX-Larsson-Girgs

Dahlin-XXXX

Pilut-Risto

XXXX-XXXX

Ullmark/Hutton

The center spine we had was foundational... he removed a pillar... and for practically nothing in return.

 

We had a Bergeron / Toews level center (on the ice) to play behind Eichel...  and now we have a huge hole and some moderate futures instead.

I think OReilly despite unquestioned talent was a drag on Jack, whoever was at fault and had to be moved and everyone knew it.  Hated to trade OReilly but believe Sabres and most believe that relationship was not reparable.  Would Sabres been better off without trading him if the relationship was better... sure.  But egos got in the way and JBotts imo did the best he could with a bad situation.  Only thing I can fault him on was doing his due dilligence on Berglunds mentality. 

Edited January 29, 2019 by North Buffalo

[jame]

15 minutes ago, North Buffalo said:

I think OReilly despite unquestioned talent was a drag on Jack, whoever was at fault and had to be moved and everyone knew it.  Hated to trade OReilly but believe Sabres and most believe that relationship was not reparable.  Would Sabres been better off without trading him if the relationship was better... sure.  But egos got in the way and JBotts imo did the best he could with a bad situation.  Only thing I can fault him on was doing his due dilligence on Berglunds mentality. 

A good GM improves the team around there stars... creates the winning environment... and repairs whatever supposed relationship issues existed (ps I dont buy that for a second)...

At the first sign of difficulty Botts was impotent. 

[jame]

19 minutes ago, DHawerchuk10 said:

Perhaps in a perfect world, but I find that questionable with the acquisition of Sheary and Hunwick whom you most likely neglected to account for, whom were acquired prior to Skinner.  You can say we shouldn't have acquired them, but that's just not how it shook out in real time.

With all do respect, many of your scenarios are great in hindsight, but Botterill doesn't have that luxury.  With the exception of the O'Reilly deal, the majority of his moves were lauded at the time.  Overall I think the team is heading in the right direction, and I like what he is trying to build.  Sure, things can be improved on, but lets see what he does at the deadline.

Why acquire 6 million in wasted cap space? I don't think my expectation of a GM not to overreact and trade our 2nd best player is a "perfect world".... It's more like simply expecting a competent world

I didn't laud most of his trades... I didn't need the benefit of hindsight.

 

I mean... acquiring Sheary/Hunwick (win now moves), to then trade ROR for futures (build for future)... to then acquire Skinner (we're back to trying to win now, after kneecapping the center spine???) is a testament to how unprepared Botts has been since day 1.

[North Buffalo]

3 minutes ago, jame said:

A good GM improves the team around there stars... creates the winning environment... and repairs whatever supposed relationship issues existed (ps I dont buy that for a second)...

At the first sign of difficulty Botts was impotent. 

It was rumored all season... sometimes relations despite efforts dont work out seen it happen too often in work situations.  Once positions get hardened, much of which could have occurred before JBotts... not much you can do and OReilly’s post season press statement told me as much.  But go on being in denial.

[jame]

1 minute ago, North Buffalo said:

It was rumored all season... sometimes relations despite efforts dont work out seen it happen too often in work situations.  Once positions get hardened, much of which could have occurred before JBotts... not much you can do and OReilly’s post season press statement told me as much.  But go on being in denial.

Actually it wasn't credibly reported at all during the season... I mean, sure there were some dumbasses that carried the "they didn't fist bump" narrative along... but, I mean... that's just National Enquirer level stupid....I agree, it became a magnified narrative after ROR's post season press statements that the ***** Buffalo Media went wild with.

[North Buffalo]

1 minute ago, jame said:

Actually it wasn't credibly reported at all during the season... I mean, sure there were some dumbasses that carried the "they didn't fist bump" narrative along... but, I mean... that's just National Enquirer level stupid....I agree, it became a magnified narrative after ROR's post season press statements that the ***** Buffalo Media went wild with.

Yeh that is why I stated rumoured, but that post season presser seems to be the last straw.  Also in context of the Lehner situation, who knows if PH or JBotts was done with all the head cases on this team.. Team this year is generally more positive... but may still need some more hormone treatments for a few...

[jame]

5 minutes ago, North Buffalo said:

Yeh that is why I stated rumoured, but that post season presser seems to be the last straw.  Also in context of the Lehner situation, who knows if PH or JBotts was done with all the head cases on this team.. Team this year is generally more positive... but may still need some more hormone treatments for a few...

Incompetent GM: Losing has impacted one of the two star players on the roster, solution... trade star player 

Competent GM: Losing has impacted one of the two star players on the roster, solution... build a winner

Botts took an ~80 point team... turned it into a ~60 point team... and then traded a star player who hated losing.

Thank god this clown lucked in to Dahlin and Skinner or we would be so screwed

Edited January 29, 2019 by jame

[...]