Jason Botterill: Is he a good or bad GM?

[LGR4GM]

This comes from the other thread but needs its own. 

4 minutes ago, jame said:

Forwards: Okposo (forced), ROR, Kane, Larsson, Girgs, Foligno, Carrier

Changes: Swap Ennis for Carrier

Defensemen: Risto, McCabe, Bogo

Changes: Swap Beaulieu for Bogo (How dumb does protecting Beaulieu over Bogo look today?). I know we had just traded for Beaulieu... so a better way of putting this might be... don't trade for Beaulieu. 

Goalies: Ullmark

Changes: Swap Lehner for Ullmark

Outcome: Vegas probably takes Ennis

This is the general starting point. 

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Samson's Flow said:

That (hypothetical) outcome also means that we don't get Scandella, who was on our top pairing all last year. Maybe we're more of a dumpster fire than we were last year and we don't have the playoff cusp team we have now.

I can do butterfly effect hypotheticals too.

 

2 minutes ago, jame said:

Scandella was gotten primarily because Pominville would waive for Buffalo. We could've used any assets to make that deal work. 

Disagree on the bolded... obviously

 

You think it's debatable whether Botts was trying to win this year? He traded an all star 60 point center for futures and cap dumps... 

 

1 minute ago, jame said:

oh no... we wouldn't have the guy who played top pair on the worst team in the league, and now looks like he should be scratched... 

We also would not have Dhalin. 

[jame]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

 

We also would not have Dhalin. 

Look, I'm all for accepting Botts horrible management year 1, because he lucked in to Dahlin... but we can just as easily prove his incompetence post Dahlin

 

 

 

[Samson's Flow]

To add: Scandella is still an NHL level defenseman who is not having the best year this year, but his track record should be enough to conservatively return a mid-round pick at the deadline.

His value is not zero now, and there was value in stabilizing the defense in prior years.

[shrader]

If this was a poll, I'd vote incomplete.

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, jame said:

Look, I'm all for accepting Botts horrible management year 1, because he lucked in to Dahlin... but we can just as easily prove his incompetence post Dahlin

What didn't you agree with post Dahlin?

[jame]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

What didn't you agree with post Dahlin?

uh, thought we covered this...

ROR Trade

Reinhart bridge

Sheary/Hunwick trade

Mitts/Tage in Buffalo with no buffers

 

 

[jame]

7 minutes ago, Samson's Flow said:

To add: Scandella is still an NHL level defenseman who is not having the best year this year, but his track record should be enough to conservatively return a mid-round pick at the deadline.

His value is not zero now, and there was value in stabilizing the defense in prior years.

I'm not saying his value is zero.

I'm arguing that putting value on protecting Ennis, because he was a component of a trade that ultimately has yielded nothing more than replacement level players for 10 million in cap space.... is not a winning argument regarding expansion.

[LGR4GM]

I only agree with you on 1 of those. The ROR trade should have been better and unless Tage or that First work out, we got owned. 

I am fine with the Reinhart bridge. Sheary isn't working but I like the idea and it cost nothing. 

Tage should have gone to Rochester, a lot of us said that. I am fine with Mitts at this stage but would have liked him to go to Rochester as well for a month or more. I think Berglund not working is really what created a lot of problems. I guess I agree with you on 1 and partially on another. 

[jame]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I only agree with you on 1 of those. The ROR trade should have been better and unless Tage or that First work out, we got owned. 

I am fine with the Reinhart bridge. Sheary isn't working but I like the idea and it cost nothing. 

Tage should have gone to Rochester, a lot of us said that. I am fine with Mitts at this stage but would have liked him to go to Rochester as well for a month or more. I think Berglund not working is really what created a lot of problems. I guess I agree with you on 1 and partially on another. 

You point to Guentzel and Murray in Pittsburgh regarding drafting/depth... and then turn around and say it cost nothing to trade those picks for 6+ million of filler (Sheary/Hunwick). Which is it?

Sheary has like 1 goal in his last 25-30 games... and i'm pretty sure it was an empty net... and we paid draft picks for him... and he's under contract for next year. Hunwick is a a buyout candidate. We traded 3 assets for nothing.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, jame said:

You point to Guentzel and Murray in Pittsburgh regarding drafting/depth... and then turn around and say it cost nothing to trade those picks for 6+ million of filler (Sheary/Hunwick). Which is it?

Sheary has like 1 goal in his last 25-30 games... and i'm pretty sure it was an empty net... and we paid draft picks for him... and he's under contract for next year. Hunwick is a a buyout candidate. We traded 3 assets for nothing.

Sheary shouldn't have been filler though. He should have produced. That said, you have to draft well, I keep reiterating that. We traded a 4th for 2 nhl players. You are trying to say I think that pick would have yielded Guentzel or Murray but that isn't at all what I think. I think when you have first round picks you should protect those because it is harder to find players as the draft progresses. I guess to be hyper critical we could say it cost that 4th round pick. For every Guentzel there are 30 Cornels. We traded a 4th for 2 nhl players. That to me is good value. 

In essence then I am making a value judgement. I value the 1st more than a 4th and am more willing to lose a 4th for a player than a 1st. Also the player from your original point was Eric Staal who could leave the team in 3 months meaning we traded away that pick for 3 months and then got nothing. I think that 1st will yield an NHL level player and would rather have that going forward. I am willing to roll that die. I am assigning value to picks based on specific scenarios. It isn't just black and white. I would or would not trade a pick. When it comes to trading that first you wanted too, my value of that pick differed from yours. 

I know what the draft chart says about players after a certain pick. I know there is a drop but in drafts of late, late 1st round picks have yielded some good players and I think this draft will see the same. A 4th round pick in any draft is much less valuable to me because of how I view the draft. I am not sure if I am explaining this clearly but I hope I am. 

 

[jame]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

Sheary shouldn't have been filler though. He should have produced. That said, you have to draft well, I keep reiterating that. We traded a 4th for 2 nhl players. You are trying to say I think that pick would have yielded Guentzel or Murray but that isn't at all what I think. I think when you have first round picks you should protect those because it is harder to find players as the draft progresses. I guess to be hyper critical we could say it cost that 4th round pick. For every Guentzel there are 30 Cornels. We traded a 4th for 2 nhl players. That to me is good value. 

In essence then I am making a value judgement. I value the 1st more than a 4th and am more willing to lose a 4th for a player than a 1st. Also the player from your original point was Eric Staal who could leave the team in 3 months meaning we traded away that pick for 3 months and then got nothing. I think that 1st will yield an NHL level player and would rather have that going forward. I am willing to roll that die. I am assigning value to picks based on specific scenarios. It isn't just black and white. I would or would not trade a pick. When it comes to trading that first you wanted too, my value of that pick differed from yours. 

I know what the draft chart says about players after a certain pick. I know there is a drop but in drafts of late, late 1st round picks have yielded some good players and I think this draft will see the same. A 4th round pick in any draft is much less valuable to me because of how I view the draft. I am not sure if I am explaining this clearly but I hope I am. 

 

If you followed Pittsburgh, you knew exactly what we were getting with Sheary... a player who brings very little individual skill to the table, and needs Crosby-esque level playmaking to cash in. Adding Sheary and then trading ROR makes no sense.... 

Good thing the 3rd is conditional.... if Sheary's scores 20 goals the 4th becomes a 3rd....

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, jame said:

If you followed Pittsburgh, you knew exactly what we were getting with Sheary... a player who brings very little individual skill to the table, and needs Crosby-esque level playmaking to cash in. Adding Sheary and then trading ROR makes no sense.... 

Good thing the 3rd is conditional.... if Sheary's scores 20 goals the 4th becomes a 3rd....

Right, which he won't. I think at the time the trade was good but it clearly hasn't worked as well as Botterill hoped. I don't necessarily think it was a failure though. 

[dudacek]

...otherwise known as the “Liger argues with the new guy” thread.

[Samson's Flow]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

...otherwise known as the “Liger argues with the new guy” thread.

hey man I tried to get in there late, but I just don't have the dedication or perseverance.

[In The Buff]

18 minutes ago, dudacek said:

...otherwise known as the “Liger argues with the new guy” thread.

well he aint wrong though, at least in my opinion.

We as fans have the luxury to play hindsight, a GM doesnt. Big picture our team was the worst in the NHL & today we're in the race for a playoff spot. So some will say what they will i suppose but who here doesnt think our future is looking up since JBots took over? And not just a one & done season but the ground work to be a contender for years to come?

[jame]

13 minutes ago, MillerVaive said:

well he aint wrong though, at least in my opinion.

We as fans have the luxury to play hindsight, a GM doesnt. Big picture our team was the worst in the NHL & today we're in the race for a playoff spot. So some will say what they will i suppose but who here doesnt think our future is looking up since JBots took over? And not just a one & done season but the ground work to be a contender for years to come?

The future does look bright (thanks to Dahlin), but Botts pushed that bright future further down the timeline when he didn't have to (ROR). The hole he created could take years and/or painful amount of assets to repair.

This was the beginning of a contender level core:

Skinner-Eichel-XXXX

XXXX-ROR-Reinhart

XXXX-Mitts-XXXX

XXXX-Larsson-Girgs

Dahlin-XXXX

Pilut-Risto

XXXX-XXXX

Ullmark/Hutton

The center spine we had was foundational... he removed a pillar... and for practically nothing in return.

 

We had a Bergeron / Toews level center (on the ice) to play behind Eichel...  and now we have a huge hole and some moderate futures instead.

Edited January 29, 2019 by jame

[GASabresIUFAN]

Generally speaking we won't know for a couple of years until we know about his deals and draft picks, but there is a lot to like so far despite my anger of his slow reaction to replacing Berglund

Positives

1) Dahlin - IMHO Jbot built a terrible team on purpose last season because he wanted a mini-tank and to help clear the dead weight cap hits..  No one will admit to it, especially after he acquired Scandella and Baloo, but how else do you explain signing Pouliot, Josefsson, Griffith, claiming Nolan, and keeping guys like Falk.  It worked and we got Dahlin.

2) Skinner - even if we trade him at the deadline, we'll likely get more then we gave up to get him.  However he'll likely be re-signed and soon

3) Pilut - this is a steal now with the potential to be a HR as early as next year.  Nice getting a potential top 4 D for nothing.

4) Scandella - what you say?  He was terrific last year and despite having an off year this year so far, he has mostly been a very good acquisiton for us.  Pommers also hasn't hurt.  While not a top 6 winger, he has given us some great games playing along with Jack, a calm professional voice in the lockerroom.  We gave us Foligno and Ennis to get him.  Ennis has now moved on and Foligno had 23 pts last year (for the 3rd year in a row) and is trending toward 17 pts this season.  Scandella, like Bogo this year, is likely to bounce back next season if he isn't traded.  Scandy played 121 for us and Pommers 125.  

5) Sheary - was acquired for a 4th rd pick with Hunwick.  Again, Jbot used our cap space to secure a solid player.  If we had a 2nd line center, we'd be getting more out of Sheary. With another year left on his deal, this trade could still blossom

6) Hutton - While he has struggled lately, my guess is he'll get back to the form we saw earlier in the year.  It would be nice if we played a little better D to help out Hutton and Ullmark.

7) Baloo - Really?  Yep.  We gave up a 3rd rd pick (a pick with about 18% chance of playing a season in the NHL) and have received 85 games to date.  He'll likely be traded at the deadline or over the summer and we'll likely get back a similar pick to what we gave up.

8.) Wilson - for a 5th rd pick. Again gave up virtually nothing for a player who helped us last year and if he had been healthy he would have helped us this season.  Don't be surprised if he helps us down the stretch.

9) Baptiste/Hudson trades - dumped two of TM/DR prospect who had no chance of making the Sabres and turned them into 2 AHL D who still may have a chance at the NHL.  Both are smart bets and have helped our D depth in the organization.  I'd like to see what Dougherty can do in Buffalo.

10) Carrier to LV so that we could protect Ullmark.  Any complaints?

11) Improvements in Roch promised and delivered.  (Should Taylor be the coach here?)

Jury is still out

1) Kane to SJ for O'Regan and a conditional 2nd.  I still think Jbot got fleeced on the deal, except that SJ re-signed Kane turning the 2nd into a 1st.  However O'Regan hasn't seen the NHL with us and won't.  There are rumors he is headed over-seas next season.  SJ's 1st will be late pick in 2019.  Odds are that we won't see value from this deal for another 2-4 years.

2) ROR to STl for Berglund, Sobotka, Thompson and a conditional 1st.  Thompson looks to have a future.  Odds right now say the 1st slips to 2020.  Sobotka and Berglund were cap dumps that were supposed to help our depth, improve our PK, score a little, give Mitts some protection win some faceoffs.  Oops.  Berglund went AWOL and took his cap hit with him, which is a long-term positive but short -term problem. Sobotka has been mediocre at best and still has another year on his deal, while ROR has had a great season for the Blues but hasn't reversed their fortunes either.  ROR was moved IMHO to clear the way for this to become Jack's team.  Still it left a huge gap in the roster that Jbot has yet to fill.  Best case for the pick is mid first this season or lottery potential in 2020.

3) Draft improvement - UPL, Oskari etc.. For the first time in 15 years it looks like we actually have an idea who to draft.  Mitts looks a steal at 8 (2017) and obviously Dahlin is future star, but drafting prowess comes from hitting on later picks.  If guys like Pekar, UPL, Oskari, Weissbach or others come through, this will be another feather in Jbot's cap.

4) PH - Jbot hired him.  I'm a fan of PH the player, and I like how much improvement we have seen in back end scoring.  Still the PP is a mess and the line combos aren't working.  Also lately the D haven't supported the goalies as they should.  

Mistakes

1) Bad depth signings - see Nolan, Josefson, Pouliot.

2) Deadline management - We seem to have an aggressive GM in the summer (Skinner, Sheary) and a cautious one at the deadline.  I felt he waited to long to move Kane last season and again has waited to long to replace Berglund. Other GM seems to get bigger deals done in the weeks ahead of the deadline (see: Muzzin deal) but not JBot. 

Bottomline:

This team was a joke when he got here. Locker room and cap issues on a bottom feeding them that had a terrible farm team, almost no D depth in the organization and few higher end prospects.  The Amerks are now one of the top teams in the AHL.  The Sabres are now competitive.  D depth has gone from a weakness to a strength.  Most of the bad contracts are gone or will be soon and the cap is no longer an issue.  However he still hasn't fully changed the losing culture in Buffalo and our NHL worst record in the last 23 games is a major concern.  So far Jbot's tenure is a success, but still no playoffs and I'm worried that he is going to blow this opportunity to get us into the playoffs this season.

 

Edited January 29, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[SwampD]

LGR on the receiving end of acerbic posts,... definitely a tear in the space/time continuum.?

Not a terrible discussion, though, and I can definitely see both sides. Have to agree with shrader, then, and go with incomplete.

[Drunkard]

I'm still firmly in the camp that trading O'Reilly was stupid and I've felt that since I first heard it happened so it isn't hindsight.

I love Lord Casey (PBUH) as much as anyone, but it's clear that he wasn't ready the center the second line and he shouldn't have needed to be. So future ex GM Jason Botterill trades our 1B 50-60 point defensively responsible center who is great on faceoffs away for some cap dump forwards who earn close to the same money as O'Reilly (one with the same emo/depressive personality he was supposedly trying to purge from the roster to boot), a 1st round pick (in a year or two), and a prospect who seems to be more smoke than fire in Stupid First Name Thompson. Berglund then quits but at least we recoup the cap space and now our once formidable center depth seems non-existent. So now FXGMJB can continue to limp along with a weak center spine while he waits for Mittelstadt to develop or he can look to the market (FA and/or trade market) to get a new center. That replacement center will likely be a significant downgrade to O'Reilly or he will likely cost more than it would have to keep him. Not looking good and it feels like we are all but assured to piss away the ELC of Dahlin looking to find a replacement for O'Reilly.

On the plus side, he did luck into Dahlin and Skinner though. It's just hard to give him too much credit for either of those events because any idiot could have made those decisions.

 

[nfreeman]

Good thread.  @jame -- welcome.  Some of your posts are, as others have noted, a bit caustic, but hopefully that will improve over time, and so will Mittlestadt.  In any case your posts are knowledgeable and reasonable.

I don't think your (or anyone else's) posts about ROR can just ignore what seemed to be major locker room issues in the team last year.  Obviously it wasn't purely an on-ice hockey trade.  As I've stated previously, I am willing to give JB and Howie the benefit of the doubt on this as they were much closer to the situation than anyone here.

I also don't agree with you on Reino's contract, or that JB blundered in not paying Vegas to take KO or Moulson in the expansion draft.  I don't think you can make the assertion about Vegas without examining the cost that Vegas would've required -- and upon examination of the comparable deals, the cost would've been too high.

I think @GASabresIUFAN has nicely summarized the positive moves JB has made -- and there have been many.

However, your positions are mostly reasonable and well argued.  I am increasingly convinced that both Mitts and TT should be in Rochester.

There are going to be growing pains with a first-time GM, a first-time HC and a young team.  On balance I am pretty optimistic about this management team and the state of the franchise.

[Gatorman0519]

The Skinner trade was a homerun.  The O'Reilly trade was an absolute disaster.  Unless behind the scenes there was more to the story, trading O'Rielly was mind-blowingly stupid.  

[Brawndo]

Given the fact that players of O’Reilly’s Skill Level are hardly ever traded and yet he was traded twice in a timeframe of three years for returns that had the Colorado and Buffalo Fanbases saying that’s it? There has to be some questionable off ice issues. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Given the fact that players of O’Reilly’s Skill Level are hardly ever traded and yet he was traded twice in a timeframe of three years for returns that had the Colorado and Buffalo Fanbases saying that’s it? There has to be some questionable off ice issues. 

Yep. 

As I wrote above, there must have been a battle in the locker room between ROR’s guys and Jack’s guys.  It was a losing battle for ROR.  No GM trades a franchise center to placate a 2nd line center.    

[...]

The various positions on JBot will never converge unless he wins us a Cup.  Only then will there be one focal point to work backward from in assessing his abilities.

Perhaps the primary reason for the variety of views is how each person values non-metric attributes (chemistry, passion/intensity, etc.).  Some folks completely ignore or discount those attributes as variables in the roster development equation. Others might consider them highly valuable factors in developing a winning team, and therefore frame moves within that context.