Sabres Prospect Rankings

[jame]

I'm interested in where everyone lands on our prospects... I consider a prospect anyone with less than 80 total games at the NHL level and under 24 years old. I use the following 4 weighted ranking categories:

• Talent / Ceiling 50%
• Current Development state 20%
• Floor 15%
• Current Projection 15%

I rank the Talent, Floor, and Projection on the following scale:

5 = Superstar talent

4.5 = Upper Top Line/Pair Talent

4.0 = Lower Top Line/Pair Talent

3.5 = 2nd tier (top checking, secondary scoring, 2nd pair etc)

3.0 = Upper Non Top6/Top4 NHL talent (Checker, PP QB, 3rd pair, etc)

2.5 = Lower Non Top6/Top4 NHL talent (4th line, depth D)

2.0 = Upper AHL/NHL Depth/Back to Europe

1.5 = Lower AHL/Fringe Major Pro League

1.0 = Lower League Fodder

0.5 = Find a new job   I rank Development on the following scale 5 = Proven NHLer 4.5 =  NHL Ready 4 = Within a season of NHL Ready 3.5 = Pro level development 3 = Developing at proper rate 2.5 = Development is stalled 2 = Under developing 1.5 = Development failing 1 = Underdevelopment Complete 0.5 = Find a new job

 

Edited January 28, 2019 by jame

[jame]

Tier	Rank	Name	Total
1	1	Dahlin	9.7
2	2	Mittelstadt	8.05
2	3	Pilut	7.75
3	4	Olofsson	7.4
3	5	Luukkonen	7.2
3	6	Nylander	7.15
3	7	Laaksonen	7.05
3	8	Thompson	6.9
4	9	Borgen	6.7
4	10	Guhle	6.5
4	11	Samuelsson	6.5
4	12	Asplund	6.4
5	13	Pekar	6.05
5	14	Smith	5.95
5	15	Davidsson	5.9
6	16	O'regan	5.25
6	17	Weissbach	5.25
6	18	Daugherty	4.9
6	19	Malone	4.9
6	20	Hickey	4.75
6	21	Fitzgerald	4.75
6	22	Glotov	4.75
6	23	Cronholm	4.75
6	24	Kukkonen	4.75
6	25	Worge-Kreu	4.75
6	26	Bryson	4.75
7	27	Oglevie	4.55
7	28	Stephens	4.55
7	29	Johansson	3.9
7	30	Cornel	3.9
7	31	Brown	3.75
7	32	Nyberg	3.75
7	33	Murray	3.75
8	34	Hurley	3.35
8	35	Chukarov	3.2
8	36	Willman	2.7

[rakish]

I have something similar http://45b.us/hockey/17.html for the 17-18 season

8 BRENDAN GUHLE 1321 AHL Rochester Americans
12 BRENDAN GUHLE 1067 NHL Buffalo Sabres

This means that in his AHL part of the year, Guhle's contextual (league or course, but also in relation to his teammates and size) scoring is 8th for defensemen in his draft class, and 12th for his time with the Sabres. The 1321 is a raw metric, a rule of thumb is a 1000 score means you are an NHL player. This is pre-draft and only ranks the previous season. Teams are ranked sloppily. I normally produce this list over Christmas as well, but I didn't this year, in the end I'm lazy.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

^^^^^

How does this guy still have the TC default avatar?

[inkman]

4 hours ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

^^^^^

How does this guy still have the TC default avatar?

And a swedish invasion handle? 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

9 hours ago, inkman said:

And a swedish invasion handle? 

Even though that battle was won (?) there are still a few holdouts.

[LGR4GM]

I think the OP is more optimistic on our prospects than I am. 

[jame]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I think the OP is more optimistic on our prospects than I am. 

Do you use some sort of system to rank them? 

[LGR4GM]

I usually defer to Rakish for the rankings as I tend to find he is in the ballpark with most if not all. 

[jame]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I usually defer to Rakish for the rankings as I tend to find he is in the ballpark with most if not all. 

So Rakish is less optomistic than I am?

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, jame said:

So Rakish is less optomistic than I am?

He was last year, I am still waiting for his 2019 update. I also don't think of your top 3 as prospects anymore but that is semantics on my end. 

[jame]

28 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

He was last year, I am still waiting for his 2019 update. I also don't think of your top 3 as prospects anymore but that is semantics on my end. 

Yes, the definition of Prospect is semantics... but the definition you give it, impacts the view of the pipeline. The more players you choose to graduate from prospect status, the less the quality of the pipeline matters because you've accounted for numerous long term roles at the NHL level. i.e. the lack of a #1 defensemen in the pipeline doesn't matter when you've graduated Dahlin. The abscence of the top end center, doesn't matter as much when you've graduated Mittelstadt. etc

 

Behind Dahlin/Mitts... I'm not projected any forwards in to top line roles... im projecting secondary scoring at best (that's not to say everyone turns out and hits their projection). But that's ok on a roster that has Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner, Mittelstadt accounting for long term roles. I'm not projecting any top pair D, and that's ok because Dahlin is a top pair unto himself.

Edited January 29, 2019 by jame

[dudacek]

To me, the key prospect, by far, is Alex Nylander. And by key, I mean the one with the biggest boom/bust factor.

And the reason is simple: Jack Eichel

I know that it’s a statistical long shot, but I still think there is a chance that Nylander turns into a better scorer at the NHL level than he has been for the Amerks

I didn’t like the pick due to my natural bias against soft wingers, but I understood the logic. The kid has the talent to skate and shoot and process the game at a first-line level. Those skills will be more obvious playing with a Jack than playing with a Sean Malone or a Justin Bailey.

Though he will never be as good as Reinhart, I can see him complementing an elite centre, the same way Reinhart does if he can be more assertive and defensively responsible in his game - exactly the areas the Sabres have him working on, and observers like @Ogre and @inkmanare seeing improvement in. He can also be the missing pass/shoot threat on the PP.

I believe it is more likely that he busts, but if he hits, he either gives Mittelstadt an eventually sidekick, or allows Reinhart to anchor a second line by giving Housley a better substitute than Pominville on Jack’s right.

And ironically, Pominville is a good model for Nylander’s best-case scenario and his development level at 20 isn’t much different than Jason’s was.

I’m not expecting it, but what a difference it would make.

Edited January 29, 2019 by dudacek