Picks, Prospects, or Players???

[Sabres Fan in NS]

15 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

just a reference to the "vision" thing....sarcasm? cliche? nothing meant  by it. Sorry if you took any offense to it.

I agree that there aren't many players I would use a 1st on.

Hopefully , I fixed it for you.

No worries, man.  You're all good.

[Brawndo]

18 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Lehner was an RFA too. 

I could be wrong, but JBot just strikes me as a guy who will only want his own players and I'm not sure he thinks Sam is a "fit" for what he wants. Hence the bridge to buy time, but in the long run he will try to move him and if he can't he will let him go and pay the money Sam will want to someone else who he thinks "fits". 

As for the rest of the cap issue I think you need to take a longer view and you have to anticipate two other things. 1) there will be other draft picks who will be good and will need money later and 2) he will sign free agents that are not on the roster now, so we can't be privy to that plan and how much future money he is planning to put aside for that.

Lehner’s Qualifying Offer from the Sabres would have been 4 Million.

The Sabres had minimal interest in paying that. 

McKenzie reported there was no interest from other teams to trade for him at last year’s deadline or leading up to July 1st. 

So Botterill decided to move on. 

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Lehner’s Qualifying Offer from the Sabres would have been 4 Million.

The Sabres had minimal interest in paying that. 

McKenzie reported there was no interest from other teams to trade for him at last year’s deadline or leading up to July 1st. 

So Botterill decided to move on. 

Yes, which is why I said he'd obviously try to trade him first, but if there was no interest then I could see him moving on again. I'm honestly not sure many teams would be interested in offering much for Sam as his body of work away from Eichel is pretty poor. That idea of lost confidence last year is rubbish imo. He does not lead the play and cannot lead a line, from any position. We are so weak at wing he is the best option we have for the Eichel line, but no way is he in the same class as Eichel and Skinner and if we found a better player to take that spot you will see I'm right.

As for Lehner, given the way he's played this year I'm gonna guess Hextall sits at home wishing he'd made that deal that was talked about last year. 

[jame]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Yes, which is why I said he'd obviously try to trade him first, but if there was no interest then I could see him moving on again. I'm honestly not sure many teams would be interested in offering much for Sam as his body of work away from Eichel is pretty poor. That idea of lost confidence last year is rubbish imo. He does not lead the play and cannot lead a line, from any position. We are so weak at wing he is the best option we have for the Eichel line, but no way is he in the same class as Eichel and Skinner and if we found a better player to take that spot you will see I'm right.

As for Lehner, given the way he's played this year I'm gonna guess Hextall sits at home wishing he'd made that deal that was talked about last year. 

Reinhart’s development path mirrors Schiefele’s. 

And Reinhart is critical to Jack’s line being successful, because a successful line doesn’t just produce offense, they outproduce their matchup.

last 1.5 seasons:

eichel w/ reinhart

GF60: 3.04 & GA60: 2.23 

result, we win the matchup when Eichel/Reinhart are together (+0.81)

eichel w/o Reinhart

GF60 2.92 & GA60 3.30

we lose the matchup when eichel is away from Reinhart (-0.38)

Reinhart has proven to be an incredible asset in our transition game, his zone exit percentage is off the charts (elite) and he’s turned himself into a top end forechecker. His subtle and/or under appreciated skills generate more opportunities for our best scorers... and keeps the puck away from our opponents best players.

Reinhart is the type of player every team wants on their top line... a player who makes your best players even better.

Edited January 26, 2019 by jame

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

1 hour ago, jame said:

Reinhart’s development path mirrors Schiefele’s. 

And Reinhart is critical to Jack’s line being successful, because a successful line doesn’t just produce offense, they outproduce their matchup.

last 1.5 seasons:

eichel w/ reinhart

GF60: 3.04 & GA60: 2.23 

result, we win the matchup when Eichel/Reinhart are together (+0.81)

eichel w/o Reinhart

GF60 2.92 & GA60 3.30

we lose the matchup when eichel is away from Reinhart (-0.38)

Reinhart has proven to be an incredible asset in our transition game, his zone exit percentage is off the charts (elite) and he’s turned himself into a top end forechecker. His subtle and/or under appreciated skills generate more opportunities for our best scorers... and keeps the puck away from our opponents best players.

Reinhart is the type of player every team wants on their top line... a player who makes your best players even better.

Personally, I'm not much of an adv stat guy. I do understand these but what I don't understand is why you went 1.5yrs. Why only Reinhart away from Jack? How does Skinner affect Jack's numbers? E. Kane? Pommers? TT? Sheary? Moulson? etc. How are Jack's numbers away from Sam this year only?

 Reinhart is our best RW and these numbers show that he is, and because he is our best it would be obvious Jack is better with him than without. People here are arguing that Reinhart can't lead play  or a line away from Jack and yet you are saying that Reinhart makes our best players better. If that's true, great. What we really need is for him to be able to make our not so great players better.

Edited January 26, 2019 by MakeSabresGrr8Again

[jame]

25 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Personally, I'm not much of an adv stat guy. I do understand these but what I don't understand is why you went 1.5yrs. Why only Reinhart away from Jack? How does Skinner affect Jack's numbers? E. Kane? Pommers? TT? Sheary? Moulson? etc. How are Jack's numbers away from Sam this year only?

 Reinhart is our best RW and these numbers show that he is, and because he is our best it would be obvious Jack is better with him than without. People here are arguing that Reinhart can't lead play  or a line away from Jack and yet you are saying that Reinhart makes our best players better. If that's true, great. What we really need is for him to be able to make our not so great players better.

Actually we need Botts to remove the not so great players. Reinhart has made almost every player he’s played with better throughout his career. It’s his defining trait.

I only used the most recent 2 seasons to avoid controversy... if you include the 2016-17 season the gap is even worse (in terms of Eichel being worse without Reinhart).

You don’t need to be a stats guy to see Reinhart’s impact all over the ice...

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

24 minutes ago, jame said:

Actually we need Botts to remove the not so great players. Reinhart has made almost every player he’s played with better throughout his career. It’s his defining trait.

I only used the most recent 2 seasons to avoid controversy... if you include the 2016-17 season the gap is even worse (in terms of Eichel being worse without Reinhart).

You don’t need to be a stats guy to see Reinhart’s impact all over the ice...

Exactly, and that's why I said....

57 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

 Reinhart is our best RW

But you still haven't answered my question. Going back further only answers about 1/10th of the question. In fact , I'm more curious about this year only. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2019/1/25/18196727/buffalo-sabres-recent-drafts-havent-yielded-many-results-for-the-nhl-draft

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2019/1/24/18195355/are-the-buffalo-sabres-holding-their-first-and-second-round-picks-too-long-jason-botterill

FYI - thought they are interesting discussions. 

Edited January 27, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2019/1/25/18196727/buffalo-sabres-recent-drafts-havent-yielded-many-results-for-the-nhl-draft

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2019/1/24/18195355/are-the-buffalo-sabres-holding-their-first-and-second-round-picks-too-long-jason-botterill

FYI - thought they are interesting discussions. 

Thanks for posting these, I've only read the first one so far and can see issues with the article and also some positives.

Issues....the article doesn't show or tell of what the return was for some of those picks. Zadorov/ Compher went in the O'Reilly trade and I would consider at least a decent return. Not only did we get Ryan for a few years of great service but the return that "might" yet come from trading him away. Lemieux went in the Jets trade and got us Kane and Bogo. Kane is another one that still might bring us a return that we could be talking about on these boards and Bogo has finally given us some good play and leadership. Leier may become more useful to us than Bailey (or not) and Guhle , Asplund, Nylander, and Cornel may yet make the NHL or bring something in a trade. So that basically leaves Hurley and Karabacek. I'm kind of disappointed in both of them as they seemed to have had some promise when they were drafted and showed good signs at their development camps.  So, all-in-all, I don't feel like we did as bad as what they are projecting with the article. Maybe could be better in some regards for sure.

The positives that I can see....Some teams that have not had many picks or have not draft well in the first 2rds are some of the best teams in the league such as Tampa, Pens, Preds, and SJ. Also that we were able to turn some players over for more useful players has been a plus. We have seemingly done well as of late in later round drafting. so things are looking up for the future and hopefully we actually "hit" on those picks.

I think peoples perspective of picks like Mitts and Nylander are tainted by the "eye test" so far. They may turn out to be great picks even though they haven't yet shown much. The real problem I think is the draft positions. Sure we hit on Eichel and Dahlin and to a lesser extent Risto. But the picks outside of the top 3-5 seem more risky and need more development. Same with the middle of the round where the expectations are still a little higher. Our SJ pick is being thrown around in the trade threads mostly because the expectations aren't high enough and the risk is higher of getting the quality player some would expect from a 1st rd pick. People get caught up in the fact a player is a 1st rd'er and think they should score 100pts or be a #1D and play 1500 games in the NHL. 

With four 1st rd picks coming up we can afford to trade 1 for sure and maybe even 2 for the right players. The possibility of trading up or down could be a consideration also in order to get a better quality player or pick up more picks to hit on. So hold tight as I think good things are coming soon, whether at the deadline or the next 2 drafts or even FA.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I think we can forget Nylander developing into a top 6 forward.  A 20 year old in the AHL has an NHLe of about .49.  His 24 pts in 40 AHL games translates to about 24 NHL pts over an 82 game season.  Honestly it’s time to move on from Nylander and trade him for as much as we can get.  

 

[Weave]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think we can forget Nylander developing into a top 6 forward.  A 20 year old in the AHL has an NHLe of about .49.  His 24 pts in 40 AHL games translates to about 24 NHL pts over an 82 game season.  Honestly it’s time to move on from Nylander and trade him for as much as we can get.  

 

If he doesn't make it as a top 6 forward, he doesn't make it at all.  He doesn't have a game that lends itself to bottom 6.  He really needed to show this season that he has an NHL future and he has been less than consistent in showing it.  Better than last season by all accounts, but better enough?  0 shots in last nights game.  Matt Tennyson outscoring him over the last 20 games.  I don't have much optimism for Nylander ending up a useful Sabres prospect.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

19 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think we can forget Nylander developing into a top 6 forward.  A 20 year old in the AHL has an NHLe of about .49.  His 24 pts in 40 AHL games translates to about 24 NHL pts over an 82 game season.  Honestly it’s time to move on from Nylander and trade him for as much as we can get.  

 

I would still like to see him called up once for a few games before taking any action. 

What is the quality of linemates he's had over the two years? Just asking because it could make a difference. Last year not so great IIRC. This year better so, you could very well be right about moving on from him. I would expect better this year. 

[Broken Ankles]

10 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2019/1/25/18196727/buffalo-sabres-recent-drafts-havent-yielded-many-results-for-the-nhl-draft

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2019/1/24/18195355/are-the-buffalo-sabres-holding-their-first-and-second-round-picks-too-long-jason-botterill

FYI - thought they are interesting discussions. 

Didn’t you comment on lack of success on 2nd round picks last week?   And went through all the examples?   Maybe Die by the Blade is scrolling though these posts looking for ideas.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

28 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Didn’t you comment on lack of success on 2nd round picks last week?   And went through all the examples?   Maybe Die by the Blade is scrolling though these posts looking for ideas.  

I did.  I'm a pretty good researcher.  My next project is to figure out the NHLe is for AHL players at various ages.  For example, a guy who scores 1pt/g at age 20 in the AHL vs a guy who scores 1 pt/g at 23 and how that translates to NHL success.  The original research on NHLe shows that the NHLe for a player decrease with age in the AHL.  However, I want to understand how that translates to line assignment in the NHL.  As I wrote above in this thread, I think Nylander is done as a top 6 prospect.  That may or may not end up being correct, but it seems much more likely then not.  So the question is, what can we honestly expect from Nylander going forward? 

[inkman]

21 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I did.  I'm a pretty good researcher.  My next project is to figure out the NHLe is for AHL players at various ages.  For example, a guy who scores 1pt/g at age 20 in the AHL vs a guy who scores 1 pt/g at 23 and how that translates to NHL success.  The original research on NHLe shows that the NHLe for a player decrease with age in the AHL.  However, I want to understand how that translates to line assignment in the NHL.  As I wrote above in this thread, I think Nylander is done as a top 6 prospect.  That may or may not end up being correct, but it seems much more likely then not.  So the question is, what can we honestly expect from Nylander going forward? 

Hasn't someone done research for all leagues and how scoring rates translate to the NHL?  I know I've seen it here before.

[inkman]

Here is some of that analysis 

http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

https://model284.com/hockey-league-translation-factors-methodology/

Looks like there is plenty more on the subject as well. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

14 minutes ago, inkman said:

Here is some of that analysis 

http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

https://model284.com/hockey-league-translation-factors-methodology/

Looks like there is plenty more on the subject as well. 

I've read those before, but none seem to answer the question I'm looking for and that is is the AHL really a developmental league or just a warehouse for depth players.   I think the Jason Pominville's are the exception and not the rule.  I think most top 6 forwards in the NHL play only sparingly in the "A", if at all and that most AHL player, especially forwards, are just fruit rotting on the vine.  

[North Buffalo]

36 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I've read those before, but none seem to answer the question I'm looking for and that is is the AHL really a developmental league or just a warehouse for depth players.   I think the Jason Pominville's are the exception and not the rule.  I think most top 6 forwards in the NHL play only sparingly in the "A", if at all and that most AHL player, especially forwards, are just fruit rotting on the vine.  

Interesting question, both league wide, by GM drafting and development curve depending on AHL coach and draft position.  Geez lots of variables and which ones actually matter.  If success is low as probably expected for forwards, do certain GMs have a higher success rate than others even if low.

[Carmel Corn]

5 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I would still like to see him called up once for a few games before taking any action. 

What is the quality of linemates he's had over the two years? Just asking because it could make a difference. Last year not so great IIRC. This year better so, you could very well be right about moving on from him. I would expect better this year. 

Agree.  Last year they gave Mittelstadt the opportunity to show what he can do and was nearly a point-per-game.  My recollection is that he played with decent top or second line talent vs. L3 or L4.  Whether or not we can conclude Mittelstadt is successful this year is certain debatable, but I feel to properly Nylander they have to give him a chance to play with top line talent.  I think the kid has a good shot and speed as well.  See what he can do with Jack and Skinner before you give up on him.

[North Buffalo]

 

[PerreaultForever]

On 1/26/2019 at 1:32 PM, jame said:

Reinhart’s development path mirrors Schiefele’s. 

And Reinhart is critical to Jack’s line being successful, because a successful line doesn’t just produce offense, they outproduce their matchup.

last 1.5 seasons:

eichel w/ reinhart

GF60: 3.04 & GA60: 2.23 

result, we win the matchup when Eichel/Reinhart are together (+0.81)

eichel w/o Reinhart

GF60 2.92 & GA60 3.30

we lose the matchup when eichel is away from Reinhart (-0.38)

Reinhart has proven to be an incredible asset in our transition game, his zone exit percentage is off the charts (elite) and he’s turned himself into a top end forechecker. His subtle and/or under appreciated skills generate more opportunities for our best scorers... and keeps the puck away from our opponents best players.

Reinhart is the type of player every team wants on their top line... a player who makes your best players even better.

I'm going to leave all the fancy stats for those guys in Toronto. I know what I see and I'm sticking to that. I mean we "won the match up" when Pomminstein was on Jack's wing too. Means nothing. Depends who you play, game conditions, etc etc etc. Way too many variables.

All I know for sure, is Reinhart does NOTHING when he isn't playing with Jack. Feel free to use stats to explain that if you like. 

[jame]

5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I'm going to leave all the fancy stats for those guys in Toronto. I know what I see and I'm sticking to that. I mean we "won the match up" when Pomminstein was on Jack's wing too. Means nothing. Depends who you play, game conditions, etc etc etc. Way too many variables.

All I know for sure, is Reinhart does NOTHING when he isn't playing with Jack. Feel free to use stats to explain that if you like. 

I can’t help you

[LGR4GM]

5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I'm going to leave all the fancy stats for those guys in Toronto. I know what I see and I'm sticking to that. I mean we "won the match up" when Pomminstein was on Jack's wing too. Means nothing. Depends who you play, game conditions, etc etc etc. Way too many variables.

All I know for sure, is Reinhart does NOTHING when he isn't playing with Jack. Feel free to use stats to explain that if you like. 

... okay

WOWY, With or Without. I did this for all even strength so there's no pp time in here but you could have 4v4 and 3v3 stats. 

We have Corsi, so shot attempts for and shot attempts against:

w/ Jack and Jeff, 50.9% - Reinhart without either 50.4%

What about HD Corsi. So this looks at shots from the high danger areas, the slot, crease, the places you really want to shoot from. 

55.15% with J and J - 51.61% without J and J

And let's talk actual scoring

22 goals for and 14 against with J and J - 10 for and 4 against without. 

So Reinhart is certainly better with Eichel and Skinner but to say he does nothing without them is just not true. Considering how good Eichel is and how good Skinner is compared to the rest of the team, it shouldn't surprise anyone that Reinhart looks better on their line. That said though, he is effective when he is away from them as well. You know who does nothing away from Eichel? Jason Pominville. Pommers with Jack comes to 18goals and 10 against. Without Eichel, 8 goals and 12 against. That's what "does nothing" looks like. At least Reinhart is producing and stopping his opposition from scoring. 

 

Edited January 29, 2019 by LGR4GM

[PerreaultForever]

Ya "nothing" is an exaggeration. I think you know it was. My point is he is incapable (it seems) of leading a line when he is the most talented guy on it. is there a stat for how many times he passes the puck blindly when an opposing player gets near him (often turning it over, or like in the Blue Jackets game causing a scoring chance or goal against)? I'd like to see that stat.  Whereas a guy like Jack might sometimes hold the puck too long and try to do too much on his own, he will keep the puck and try to make the play and Skinner, well he seems to relish fighting through anything, but Reinhart, he just throws it away and heads to the net waiting for others to do all the harder work. 

That's my opinion, and I'm sticking with it until i see otherwise.

As for Pommers away from Jack ya, he's been over the hill for years. Nostalgia aside, he was a contract dump and a place holder, we knew that going in. We are short on good wingers, no argument on that.