Picks, Prospects, or Players???

[Scottysabres]

1 minute ago, jame said:

Rakell is primarily a winger and has played the majority of his career there.

theres a zero % chance that 4 years of his well below market, prime age contract would be traded for a handful of draft picks

and we get Mountour too? 

These aren't offers made, you realize this correct? The point of the post obviously went a little to far for you.

First off, any player can be traded, below, at or above market value, so the 0% chance nonsense...…………...save that for the dinner table.

The point of the post was an offer can be made. What? Do you honestly believe it works like this:

GM - A: I have two 1sts and two 2nds for player X and Y, do you accept?

GM - B: Why no, you couldn't even get X's jock strap for that, and you want me to add Y? dialtone……………

Contrary to your obvious skewed view of things, most deals take time, a great deal of time.

The point of the post was plausibility to a deal unto itself, as in, Botterill has already started any conversations, long ago, for anything that may bare fruit.

You should be aware, these event's don't happen in a vacuum in almost all cases. They are living conversations, relationships and require a great deal of back and forth. There is no "chart" that lays this out. I'm sorry, but your view of the ROR trade, is dead on incorrect, inaccurate and speaks volumes to the plunge head first in to what "I THINK SHOULD HAPPEN" category. But the reality is, your not an NHL executive for one of the clubs, and their knowledge of the inner workings of their own teams and their visions of what moves to make far exceed yours.

[jame]

2 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

These aren't offers made, you realize this correct? The point of the post obviously went a little to far for you.

First off, any player can be traded, below, at or above market value, so the 0% chance nonsense...…………...save that for the dinner table.

The point of the post was an offer can be made. What? Do you honestly believe it works like this:

GM - A: I have two 1sts and two 2nds for player X and Y, do you accept?

GM - B: Why no, you couldn't even get X's jock strap for that, and you want me to add Y? dialtone……………

Contrary to your obvious skewed view of things, most deals take time, a great deal of time.

The point of the post was plausibility to a deal unto itself, as in, Botterill has already started any conversations, long ago, for anything that may bare fruit.

You should be aware, these event's don't happen in a vacuum in almost all cases. They are living conversations, relationships and require a great deal of back and forth. There is no "chart" that lays this out. I'm sorry, but your view of the ROR trade, is dead on incorrect, inaccurate and speaks volumes to the plunge head first in to what "I THINK SHOULD HAPPEN" category. But the reality is, your not an NHL executive for one of the clubs, and their knowledge of the inner workings of their own teams and their visions of what moves to make far exceed yours.

And yours

[Scottysabres]

Just now, jame said:

And yours

Absolutely

[jame]

7 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

Absolutely

Now that that is settled and we both understand the obvious (we are giving our opinions)...

your proposal doesn’t serve your point very well if said proposal is outlandish. 

Removing the vagueness of trading our futures by saying, “i’d trade 4 first rounders for mcdavid”, is not really making much of a point.

Edited January 25, 2019 by jame

[Formerly Allan in MD]

12 hours ago, sweetlou said:

If you look at the history of the Sabres drafts, having a lot of picks does not translate into success.

It's known as the Murray equation.

[Scottysabres]

1 hour ago, jame said:

Now that that is settled and we both understand the obvious (we are giving our opinions)...

your proposal doesn’t serve your point very well if said proposal is outlandish. 

Removing the vagueness of trading our futures by saying, “i’d trade 4 first rounders for mcdavid”, is not really making much of a point.

Except, I watch a great deal of Anaheim games, Rakell has played center, not wing, a majority of his time there. Yes, he's been shifted to wing, sometimes for extended periods, but not predominantly.

As for the offer, two 1st's, two 2nd's, not something that is far off in my earnest opinion. It starts the conversation, as I said.

[jame]

2 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

Except, I watch a great deal of Anaheim games, Rakell has played center, not wing, a majority of his time there. Yes, he's been shifted to wing, sometimes for extended periods, but not predominantly.

As for the offer, two 1st's, two 2nd's, not something that is far off in my earnest opinion. It starts the conversation, as I said.

Factually speaking, your statement is incorrect. Over the last 3 seasons, Rakell has played 2/3 of his ES TOI with Getlzaf. He has NOT played a majority of his time at center. He HAS predominantly played wing.

there was a 4 week stretch in February-March 2017 when he got some run at center behind Getz, but pretty soon they put him back on wing.

they followed that up by acquiring Henrique and signing him long term (effectively ending Rakell’s long term usage as a top 6 center for the foreseeable future

in the two seasons since his 4 week run at center, he’s continued to get short stints there, but that has been largely due to injuries to Getz, Kesler, and Henrique.

your original statement was backwards... he’s largely been a winger through his career... but has been tried at center and continues to fill in there when injuries call for it.

He could still be a center in the future for sure.

 

[Scottysabres]

56 minutes ago, jame said:

Factually speaking, your statement is incorrect. Over the last 3 seasons, Rakell has played 2/3 of his ES TOI with Getlzaf. He has NOT played a majority of his time at center. He HAS predominantly played wing.

there was a 4 week stretch in February-March 2017 when he got some run at center behind Getz, but pretty soon they put him back on wing.

they followed that up by acquiring Henrique and signing him long term (effectively ending Rakell’s long term usage as a top 6 center for the foreseeable future

in the two seasons since his 4 week run at center, he’s continued to get short stints there, but that has been largely due to injuries to Getz, Kesler, and Henrique.

your original statement was backwards... he’s largely been a winger through his career... but has been tried at center and continues to fill in there when injuries call for it.

He could still be a center in the future for sure.

 

Your relying on a stats sight, not actually watching the games.

[jame]

41 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

Your relying on a stats sight, not actually watching the games.

Whichever way you want to play this... you’re still wrong.

your statement didn’t align with what I’ve seen, i stated that . You stood by your statement. I validated that you were wrong with TOI stats, along with timelines, and some organizational facts.

Edited January 25, 2019 by jame

[Scottysabres]

1 minute ago, jame said:

Whichever way you want to play this... you’re still wrong.

Lol, ok

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

You can end up in cap hell either way, look at TO. I know Tavares doesn't help that any, but they were heading in that direction anyway.

And they still have needs on D.

That was my point though. Bringing in Tavares made them a contender but also made the window start to close faster. You need an influx of youth not pricey veterans. Nylander put the screws to them cause he knew they were in a win now mode and that will hasten the decline - unless they move a big name next year. 

I want Skinner signed but if they overpay him, I suspect JBot will probably let Sam walk at the end of his bridge cause he'll need Dahlin and (hopefully) Mittlestadt money.  

[dudacek]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

That was my point though. Bringing in Tavares made them a contender but also made the window start to close faster. You need an influx of youth not pricey veterans. Nylander put the screws to them cause he knew they were in a win now mode and that will hasten the decline - unless they move a big name next year. 

I want Skinner signed but if they overpay him, I suspect JBot will probably let Sam walk at the end of his bridge cause he'll need Dahlin and (hopefully) Mittlestadt money.  

Sam is an RFA at the end of his bridge. He will not be walking.

And even if he is traded it won’t be for cap reasons.

 

 

Sams second contract was for 3.6 after seasons of 42, 47 and 50 points. The contract Mittelstadt signs next summer will be after  a rookie season of 25ish points. Even if he doubles that next year, the Sabres won’t be breaking the bank for him.

Dahlin, hopefully, is another story. Ekblad set the bar for second contracts at 7.5.

But even if he signs for Jack money, we have room to pay Sam and Casey and even make a few adds.

On 1/23/2019 at 5:22 PM, dudacek said:

Potential roster for 20/21

Skinner 8.5* Eichel 10 Nylander/Olofsson .9

Thompson 3* Mittelstadt 3* Reinhart 7*

Smith 1.2* Acquisition ? Acquisition ?

Girgensons 1.8* Larsson 1.8* Okposo 6

Dahlin .9 Acquisition ?

McCabe 3.5* Risto 5.4

Pilut 2.5 * Borgen .8

Ullmark 3.5*

Hutton 2.7

 

*Based on reasonable growth and market value as of their contract year.

That’s around a $63 million team give or take with three holes to fill.

Dahlin would be up for a significant raise the following year. Risto is a UFA and Okposo in his last year, the year after that. The kids would still all be RFAs.

We can make some significant acquisitions in the next two years and still have plenty of room to not worry much about selling people off, even if someone like Mittelstadt explodes heading into his third contract.

 

[Taro T]

23 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Sam is an RFA at the end of his bridge. He will not be walking.

And even if he is traded it won’t be for cap reasons.

 

 

Sams second contract was for 3.6 after seasons of 42, 47 and 50 points. The contract Mittelstadt signs next summer will be after  a rookie season of 25ish points. Even if he doubles that next year, the Sabres won’t be breaking the bank for him.

Dahlin, hopefully, is another story. Ekblad set the bar for second contracts at 7.5.

But even if he signs for Jack money, we have room to pay Sam and Casey and even make a few adds.

 

Really hoping Dahlin's next contract is $8x8.  That would mean he's looking like he'll live up to the hype and that there's a few extra $'s available to get him, Eichel, & the rest some higher talent to help the cause.

If he's so studly that his next deal is between Eichel's & McClavicle's, that means he's close to exceeding the hype and would actually be a good problem to have and they'll work around it.  But REALLY hoping his REAL breakout year is #4, rather than #3.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Really hoping Dahlin's next contract is $8x8.  That would mean he's looking like he'll live up to the hype and that there's a few extra $'s available to get him, Eichel, & the rest some higher talent to help the cause.

If he's so studly that his next deal is between Eichel's & McClavicle's, that means he's close to exceeding the hype and would actually be a good problem to have and they'll work around it.  But REALLY hoping his REAL breakout year is #4, rather than #3.

He is doing very well as an 18 year old rookie. 

I believe he will become all he is to become in year 4, maybe 5.  He will only be 22, or 23, years old.  Imagine that.

I think he will sign a contract in the 8x$8 to $8.5 range.  Possibly as soon as the summer after this coming summer.  Like Jack did, if I recall correctly, with 1 year left on his ELC.

[Taro T]

11 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

He is doing very well as an 18 year old rookie. 

I believe he will become all he is to become in year 4, maybe 5.  He will only be 22, or 23, years old.  Imagine that.

I think he will sign a contract in the 8x$8 to $8.5 range.  Possibly as soon as the summer after this coming summer.  Like Jack did, if I recall correctly, with 1 year left on his ELC.

Would be great if he'd sign that deal next summer heading into that 3rd year.  Problem is, there's a likely lockout happening that Fall, so I'd expect either he or the Sabres (possibly both) would want to see how the new CBA plays out before locking into a LT deal that may not be ideal (for 1 of the parties) on the landscape of the brave new world.

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

He is doing very well as an 18 year old rookie. 

I believe he will become all he is to become in year 4, maybe 5.  He will only be 22, or 23, years old.  Imagine that.

I think he will sign a contract in the 8x$8 to $8.5 range.  Possibly as soon as the summer after this coming summer.  Like Jack did, if I recall correctly, with 1 year left on his ELC.

Would love to see Rasmus locked up on a deal like this after his second year. Would also like to see Sam sign a Willie Nylander type extension this summer, after Skinner extends for something like 8x8 next month. Basically locks up our core for all their prime years (until sometime after our second cup), with room to pay Risto and/or Casey big if they deserve it. Also means we don’t have to make hard decisions on 27-year-old pending UFAs. 

Edited January 25, 2019 by dudacek

[Sabres Fan in NS]

9 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Would be great if he'd sign that deal next summer heading into that 3rd year.  Problem is, there's a likely lockout happening that Fall, so I'd expect either he or the Sabres (possibly both) would want to see how the new CBA plays out before locking into a LT deal that may not be ideal (for 1 of the parties) on the landscape of the brave new world.

What are the chances the two boneheaded sides will come to their senses before drop dead date?  

Not very good, I'm afraid.

[Taro T]

17 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

What are the chances the two boneheaded sides will come to their senses before drop dead date?  

Not very good, I'm afraid.

Umm, are 'slim' and 'none' the answer?

But back to re-signing Dahlin.  I'd be very surprised if he isn't re-signed well before the end of that shortened 3rd season is reached.

[jame]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Really hoping Dahlin's next contract is $8x8.  That would mean he's looking like he'll live up to the hype and that there's a few extra $'s available to get him, Eichel, & the rest some higher talent to help the cause.

If he's so studly that his next deal is between Eichel's & McClavicle's, that means he's close to exceeding the hype and would actually be a good problem to have and they'll work around it.  But REALLY hoping his REAL breakout year is #4, rather than #3.

Why would Dahlin get 20% less than Eichel got... especially after 3 years of cap growth?

Dahlin’s rookie year has been significantly better than Eichel’s

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, jame said:

Why would Dahlin get 20% less than Eichel got... especially after 3 years of cap growth?

Dahlin’s rookie year has been significantly better than Eichel’s

Not arguing your point, but answering your question:

First line centres get paid more than first-pairing defenders?

Eichel is the 7th highest-paid player in the NHL?

20 per cent less than Eichel would still be - by far - the biggest 2nd contract for a defenceman in NHL history?

Ekblad 7.5, Dumba 6, Hamilton 5.7, Trouba 5.5, Parayko 5.5, Jones 5.4, Ristolainen 5.4, Slavin 5.3...

 

I wouldn’t be shocked if Rasmus signs for Eichel money, but he’s going to need to put up 60-plus points to do it.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, jame said:

Why would Dahlin get 20% less than Eichel got... especially after 3 years of cap growth?

Dahlin’s rookie year has been significantly better than Eichel’s

By what metric? Eichel had 56points in 81 games. Dahlin is on pace for 44points in 81 games. 

I would however expect with the growth factored in that Dahlin will be looking at a 10mil a year type deal. 

Edited January 25, 2019 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

By what metric? Eichel had 56points in 81 games. Dahlin is on pace for 44points in 81 games. 

I would however expect with the growth factored in that Dahlin will be looking at a 10mil a year type deal. 

Eichel had a good rookie season, especially by the standards of an 18 year old.

Dahlin is on pace to have the second most productive season by an 18-year-old defenceman ever.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Eichel had a good rookie season, especially by the standards of an 18 year old.

Dahlin is on pace to have the second most productive season by an 18-year-old defenceman ever.

Eichel was 19 technically if we want to give Dahlin more credit. That's why I want to know how we are measuring. 

[jame]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

By what metric? Eichel had 56points in 81 games. Dahlin is on pace for 44points in 81 games. 

Not that I think a points metric is wise in comparing C/D... but given that in year 4, Eichel is on a 97 point pace (82 games) and Dahlin's rookie season currently projects to score almost 80% of what Eichel produced his rookie year... would you then project Dahlin to be a 77 point defensemen?

You realize 44 points would put him in the top 5 for rookie defensemen scoring over the last 20 years?

And none of those guys did it as 18 year olds.

Dahlin is a generational talent. Eichel is a franchise center.

 

Phaneuf 49 points / Draft + 2

Myers 48 points / Draft + 1

Werenski 47 points / Draft + 1

Butcher 44 points / Draft + 4

Shattenkirk 43 points / Draft + 4

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, jame said:

Not that I think a points metric is wise in comparing C/D... but given that in year 4, Eichel is on a 97 point pace (82 games) and Dahlin's rookie season currently projects to score almost 80% of what Eichel produced his rookie year... would you then project Dahlin to be a 77 point defensemen?

You realize 44 points would put him in the top 5 for rookie defensemen scoring over the last 20 years?

And none of those guys did it as 18 year olds.

Dahlin is a generational talent. Eichel is a franchise center.

 

Phaneuf 49 points / Draft + 2

Myers 48 points / Draft + 1

Werenski 47 points / Draft + 1

Butcher 44 points / Draft + 4

Shattenkirk 43 points / Draft + 4

No I didn't know that at all...

anyways, yes, I would predict Dahlin getting in the 70pt range by year 3 or 4. Seems about right. Of course he could also go higher, I am not sure he has a true ceiling. 

Also

Ekblad 39pts year of his draft

Edited January 25, 2019 by LGR4GM