Oilers vs Sabres - who has the brighter future?

[dudacek]

Although I am on board for the need of a Staal-type player and agree there are developmental pluses to making the playoffs, I wouldn’t sacrifice a first-rounder to acquire Staal - partly because I think the chances of Staal delivering the best case scenario aren’t great and partly because of opportunity cost.

Staal is a rental. The chances of him having a greater long-term positive impact on the franchise than a late first arent great. I would trade a lesser pick/prospect for Staal, and I would rather sacrifice that first-rounder in a package to acquire a better asset at the draft.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Although I am on board for the need of a Staal-type player and agree there are developmental pluses to making the playoffs, I wouldn’t sacrifice a first-rounder to acquire Staal - partly because I think the chances of Staal delivering the best case scenario aren’t great and partly because of opportunity cost.

Staal is a rental. The chances of him having a greater long-term positive impact on the franchise than a late first arent great. I would trade a lesser pick/prospect for Staal, and I would rather sacrifice that first-rounder in a package to acquire a better asset at the draft.

As long as Minn is in he hunt, it’s unlikely Staal gets traded (or Coyle).  I also think if they do move him, they may not want picks back, but a NHL ready D prospect or a NHL D in return.

[LGR4GM]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

As long as Minn is in he hunt, it’s unlikely Staal gets traded (or Coyle).  I also think if they do move him, they may not want picks back, but a NHL ready D prospect or a NHL D in return.

Bealieu for Staal! done. lol jk

[jame]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Making it to the playoffs and losing in round 1 doesn't make you a winning franchise. Look at Edmonton, they made the playoffs last year and have what to show this year? So yes I will take hypothetical 2. 

They already have begun to win. They now have a frame of reference with the 10 game win streak and you hear them talk about what they did right then and are not now. Adding Staal doesn't suddenly give them that knowledge or belief. I like Staal and would add him, but not for a 1st round pick and things which is what it would cost. 

Hypothetical:

1. Add Staal this offseason for nothing but cap space
2. Get proper development all next year
3. Make the playoffs in 2020
4. in 2021 have that 1st round player looking good
5. in 2022 have that player on the team as you make not a playoff run, but a cup run. 

 

FYI Edmonton missed the playoffs last year.

And in all likelihood #4 and 5 never happen.

I also think the only way to attract a player like Staal is to add them now, and let them experience Buffalo, the community, the lockerroom and feel that the team is close to contending. Staal will not sign here as a blind UFA. Nor will any other solution to the crater.

[LGR4GM]

Sorry 2 years ago for the Oilers. Guess getting into the playoffs that one time really taught them a lot about how to win and stuff... 

[jame]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Although I am on board for the need of a Staal-type player and agree there are developmental pluses to making the playoffs, I wouldn’t sacrifice a first-rounder to acquire Staal - partly because I think the chances of Staal delivering the best case scenario aren’t great and partly because of opportunity cost.

Staal is a rental. The chances of him having a greater long-term positive impact on the franchise than a late first arent great. I would trade a lesser pick/prospect for Staal, and I would rather sacrifice that first-rounder in a package to acquire a better asset at the draft.

You dont think the "Developmental Pluses" have a better chance of impacting the franchise long term than the less than 20% chance that the late 1st rounder ever makes an impact?

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, jame said:

FYI Edmonton missed the playoffs last year.

And in all likelihood #4 and 5 never happen.

I also think the only way to attract a player like Staal is to add them now, and let them experience Buffalo, the community, the lockerroom and feel that the team is close to contending. Staal will not sign here as a blind UFA. Nor will any other solution to the crater.

I don't believe that. Players will sign here because it is a hockey market with a great facility and owner. Skinner waived a NTC to come here. Okposo signed here. We can get UFA's if needed. 

[jame]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Sorry 2 years ago for the Oilers. Guess getting into the playoffs that one time really taught them a lot about how to win and stuff... 

So your view is that the Sabres roster has as many holes as the mess in Edmonton?

My view is that we have one massive hole.... Edmonton has 4-5

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, jame said:

You dont think the "Developmental Pluses" have a better chance of impacting the franchise long term than the less than 20% chance that the late 1st rounder ever makes an impact?

I'd say the development impact is about the same, 20% maybe. 

Just now, jame said:

So your view is that the Sabres roster has as many holes as the mess in Edmonton?

My view is that we have one massive hole.... Edmonton has 4-5

No, my view is that making the playoffs once is not some magical development thing for the guys that are on the team the next year. 

[jame]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't believe that. Players will sign here because it is a hockey market with a great facility and owner. Skinner waived a NTC to come here. Okposo signed here. We can get UFA's if needed. 

Skinner waived his NTC because he was only willing to go to Toronto or Buffalo (proximity to toronto).... we got super lucky.

Okposo signed here because we gave him a ridiculous contract... are you saying we should give Staal a ridiculous contract?

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, jame said:

You dont think the "Developmental Pluses" have a better chance of impacting the franchise long term than the less than 20% chance that the late 1st rounder ever makes an impact?

Putting aside the leading ambiguity of the bolded, I’m pretty sure that’s what my post said, yes.

The chances of Eric Staal being the difference between the Sabres making the playoffs or not, are not great, never mind all the intangible long term benefits if that actually happens.

[jame]

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'd say the development impact is about the same, 20% maybe. 

No, my view is that making the playoffs once is not some magical development thing for the guys that are on the team the next year. 

Using Edmonton to make the case when their roster is in significantly worse shape than Buffalo's is not a strong example.

Just now, dudacek said:

Putting aside the leading ambiguity of the bolded, I’m pretty sure that’s what my post said, yes.

The chances of Eric Staal being the difference between the Sabres making the playoffs or not, are not great, never mind all the intangible long term benefits if that actually happens.

So you think the Sabres have close to no chance to make the playoffs as it stands now?

Or you think upgrading the 2C from Sobotka to Staal has a really low impact on the roster's ability to perform overall?

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, jame said:

Skinner waived his NTC because he was only willing to go to Toronto or Buffalo (proximity to toronto).... we got super lucky.

Okposo signed here because we gave him a ridiculous contract... are you saying we should give Staal a ridiculous contract?

So you admit there are reasons players would sign here? Therefore we don't have to bring him in early to convince him. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Putting aside the leading ambiguity of the bolded, I’m pretty sure that’s what my post said, yes.

The chances of Eric Staal being the difference between the Sabres making the playoffs or not, are not great, never mind all the intangible long term benefits if that actually happens.

I disagree.  Staal’s leadership, Cup winning playoff experience and good skill would be a huge up-grade for this team and would allow PH to properly slot everyone into their best roles on this team.  This very simple change could very well be the difference between a 85-88 pt season and a playoff birth.  

Skinner Eichel Reinhart

Sheary Staal Thompson

Erod Mitts Pominville

Girgensons Larsson Okposo

Sobatka/Wilson

One other nice thing about getting a guy like Staal is that he’d probably stick around for a very reasonable 2-3 contract.  He wants to win and playing here might be his best chance for a significant role on a winning team.

Edited January 24, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[jame]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

So you admit there are reasons players would sign here? Therefore we don't have to bring him in early to convince him. 

No. I don't agree at all that there are reasons a high end veteran in his mid 30s would sign here, outside being convinced via a few months in the lockerroom, with the guys, seeing first hand the potential of the team and city.

The examples you cited are completely irrelevant to an Eric Staal scenario.

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, jame said:

No. I don't agree at all that there are reasons a high end veteran in his mid 30s would sign here, outside being convinced via a few months in the lockerroom, with the guys, seeing first hand the potential of the team and city.

The examples you cited are completely irrelevant to an Eric Staal scenario.

And yet he will sign elsewhere because he has heard good things? You are implying we are at a disadvantage because Buffalo and it's just never been proven to be true. 

[dudacek]

12 minutes ago, jame said:

So you think the Sabres have close to no chance to make the playoffs as it stands now?

Or you think upgrading the 2C from Sobotka to Staal has a really low impact on the roster's ability to perform overall?

Your argument is valid. It’s not necessary to phrase your questions along the lines of “when did you stop beating your wife.”

I think the Sabres can make the playoffs without Staal, I think chances improve with Staal.

Pulling numbers out of my ass, if we have a 50/50 chance now we might have a 52 per cent chance with him. I think there are better ways to use that asset, including, but not limited to, using it to pick a prospect.

[jame]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

And yet he will sign elsewhere because he has heard good things? You are implying we are at a disadvantage because Buffalo and it's just never been proven to be true. 

Yes. We are at a disadvantage because Buffalo has been a losing franchise for most of his career. Because he has very few relationships on the team. Because he will have contender level offers, and without experiencing Buffalo's ability to win first hand, he has no reason to believe they will.

And yes, the disadvantage has been proven true with Brad Richards, Parise, Stamkos, and on...

[jame]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Your argument is valid. It’s not necessary to phrase your questions along the lines of “when did you stop beating your wife.”

I think the Sabres can make the playoffs without Staal, I think chances improve with Staal.

Pulling numbers out of my ass, if we have a 50/50 chance now we might have a 52 per cent chance with him. I think there are better ways to use that asset, including, but not limited to, using it to pick a prospect.

I think most sportsbooks have our playoff odds around 40% right now.

I am surprised you think the change from incapable 2nd line center to high quality 2nd line NHL center has so little impact.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

17 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I disagree.  Staal’s leadership, Cup winning playoff experience and good skill would be a huge up-grade for this team and would allow PH to properly slot everyone into their best roles on this team.  This very simple change could very well be the difference between a 85-88 pt season and a playoff birth.  

Skinner Eichel Reinhart

Sheary Staal Thompson

Erod Mitts Pominville

Girgensons Larsson Okposo

Sobatka/Wilson

One other nice thing about getting a guy like Staal is that he’d probably stick around for a very reasonable 2-3 contract.  He wants to win and playing here might be his best chance for a significant role on a winning team.

If Staal wants to WIN then I would guess it to be now rather than take a chance on a couple years from now. He's 34yrs old.

I'm sure he would get respect from the room due to being a cup winner, but that also was going on 13yrs ago.  I'm not tyring to take anything away from Staal or the impact he "could" have on the team. I would rather see if we could get him as a FA than giving up assets for him.

[Weave]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Your argument is valid. It’s not necessary to phrase your questions along the lines of “when did you stop beating your wife.”

I think the Sabres can make the playoffs without Staal, I think chances improve with Staal.

Pulling numbers out of my ass, if we have a 50/50 chance now we might have a 52 per cent chance with him. I think there are better ways to use that asset, including, but not limited to, using it to pick a prospect.

Its a damn shame that this whole conversation, on both sides, continues to be of the when did you stop beating your wife variety.  It’s an interesting conversation, but mud wrestling isn’t interesting right now.

Edited January 24, 2019 by Weave

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

12 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

And yet he will sign elsewhere because he has heard good things? You are implying we are at a disadvantage because Buffalo and it's just never been proven to be true. 

Maybe Skinner can convince him like Moulson did with KO.

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, jame said:

Yes. We are at a disadvantage because Buffalo has been a losing franchise for most of his career. Because he has very few relationships on the team. Because he will have contender level offers, and without experiencing Buffalo's ability to win first hand, he has no reason to believe they will.

And yes, the disadvantage has been proven true with Brad Richards, Parise, Stamkos, and on...

Parise and Stamkos both signed with their current team. Not sure how they are even in this convo. And before Tavares comes up, he basically said he wanted to go home to Toronto. 

It's weird because I like the idea of Staal or Couturier, just not the suggested cost. 

[jame]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Parise and Stamkos both signed with their current team. Not sure how they are even in this convo. And before Tavares comes up, he basically said he wanted to go home to Toronto. 

They were both UFAs who Buffalo made massive offers to, and neither even came to meet with the team.

Parise did not sign with his "current team", he went from NJ to Minny. Stamkos, although he re-signed, went to market.

Yes, we offered Tavares too.

Edited January 24, 2019 by jame

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 minutes ago, Weave said:

Its a damn shame that this whole conversation, on both sides, continues to be of the when did you stop beating your wife variety.  It’s an interesting conversation, but mud wrestling isn’t interesting right now.

JELLO FIGHT!!!!