Oilers vs Sabres - who has the brighter future?

[jame]

15 minutes ago, Thorny said:

If by first line centre you mean an accurate representation of what a 1st line centre usually is, than sure maybe. I.e - 60-ish points.

Vegas 2C last year - Erik Haula

Predators the year before - Mike Fisher

Sharks in 2016 - Logan Couture

Blackhawks won the Cup in 2015 with Brad Richards as their 2C, Lightning runner up with Johnson playing as their 1C. 

 

So acquiring a 2C will be just as easy as lucking in to talent via an expansion draft, finding a grizzled franchise captain, having a selke caliber center behind your franchise center (boy that would be nice), or picking up a veteran conn smyth winner....

 

[Thorner]

2 hours ago, jame said:

 

So acquiring a 2C will be just as easy as lucking in to talent via an expansion draft, finding a grizzled franchise captain, having a selke caliber center behind your franchise center (boy that would be nice), or picking up a veteran conn smyth winner....

 

Yes, the only way to acquire a 2C, players with the production the listed players had, during the years I was highlighting, is to acquire them via the exact paths those players took throughout the entirety of their careers.

Good grief. 

---

Haula - 55 points

Fisher - 42 points

Couture - 36 points (in 52 games; 57 pt. 82 game pace)

Richards - 37 points 

Johnson - 72 points (1st line)

Players like Richards and Fisher were a shadow of their former selves by this point in their careers. Couture is the outlier, acquiring a player that good to be your 2C would prove difficult. But he's their 1C now, anyways.

Edited January 24, 2019 by Thorny
might as well post the numbers

[Broken Ankles]

5 hours ago, jame said:

Mcdavid >>>>>Eichel

Draisaitl < Reinhart

RNH < Skinner

rest of Edm <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Dahlin 

Sheary is a replacement level hockey player. 

I’m a fan of Sam but he is not better than Leon.  Like 100 points less with only 20 less games played.  Leon can play FL#1 and put up gaudy numbers.  He can also Center FL#2 and provide secondary scoring with average forwards.  Neither are elite at much else.  

[PerreaultForever]

Chiarelli screwed up the cap in Boston with their cup runs and was fired because of that. He went to Edmonton and proceeded to place them in cap hell as well. I knew he was a dead man walking minute he signed Lucic to that 7 (?) year deal. Yes, they have McDavid, but I would say we are already positioned to move past them, but only if we sign Skinner to a reasonable deal. They have to blow it up I think and rebuild around their one superstar.

[jame]

6 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

I’m a fan of Sam but he is not better than Leon.  Like 100 points less with only 20 less games played.  Leon can play FL#1 and put up gaudy numbers.  He can also Center FL#2 and provide secondary scoring with average forwards.  Neither are elite at much else.  

I Disagree entirely 

[jame]

8 hours ago, Thorny said:

Yes, the only way to acquire a 2C, players with the production the listed players had, during the years I was highlighting, is to acquire them via the exact paths those players took throughout the entirety of their careers.

Good grief. 

---

Haula - 55 points

Fisher - 42 points

Couture - 36 points (in 52 games; 57 pt. 82 game pace)

Richards - 37 points 

Johnson - 72 points (1st line)

Players like Richards and Fisher were a shadow of their former selves by this point in their careers. Couture is the outlier, acquiring a player that good to be your 2C would prove difficult. But he's their 1C now, anyways.

Making a list of 2nd line centers doesn’t show how easy they are to acquire. Saying “Barzal, Point, Johansen, ROR” doesn’t support a false statement that “1st line centers are easy to acquire”

 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, jame said:

Making a list of 2nd line centers doesn’t show how easy they are to acquire. Saying “Barzal, Point, Johansen, ROR” doesn’t support a false statement that “1st line centers are easy to acquire”

 

Where does he say Barzal, Point, Johansen or ROR? 

[jame]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Where does he say Barzal, Point, Johansen or ROR? 

He didn’t 

[LGR4GM]

So you are using that as your example? 

[jame]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

So you are using that as your example? 

It’s a counter to the idea that 2nd line centers on a contender are immeasurably easier to acquire.

my position is you need 2 top center... we were dumb enough to trade out of that scenario and it is going to be incredibly difficult to get it back... 

top centers are difficult to acquire period. 

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, jame said:

It’s a counter to the idea that 2nd line centers on a contender are immeasurably easier to acquire.

my position is you need 2 top center... we were dumb enough to trade out of that scenario and it is going to be incredibly difficult to get it back... 

top centers are difficult to acquire period. 

I have no problem with ROR getting traded. This year is going to be the peak of ROR. I think Casey Mittelstadt has made progress towards becoming a 2c and I would give him more than half of his first season at age 20 to prove that. On top of that the Sabres have the ability to draft a center that can also push for 2c status. 

Barzal was a 16th overall pick. I think we are starting to see better and deeper drafts because the talent level at the lower levels is geared towards the NHL and getting kids there. It helps. This upcoming draft has 10-11 possible first round centers. If we have any faith in Botterill's drafting, we should let them make those picks. If we don't then trading for Eric Staal or whatever won't save us anyways. It all starts with good drafting and proper development. 

[jame]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I have no problem with ROR getting traded. This year is going to be the peak of ROR. I think Casey Mittelstadt has made progress towards becoming a 2c and I would give him more than half of his first season at age 20 to prove that. On top of that the Sabres have the ability to draft a center that can also push for 2c status. 

Barzal was a 16th overall pick. I think we are starting to see better and deeper drafts because the talent level at the lower levels is geared towards the NHL and getting kids there. It helps. This upcoming draft has 10-11 possible first round centers. If we have any faith in Botterill's drafting, we should let them make those picks. If we don't then trading for Eric Staal or whatever won't save us anyways. It all starts with good drafting and proper development. 

The ROR trade cost us at least 1 playoff run... maybe two (2019-20).

Casey has made almost no progress. And his development has been hindered by rushing him to a league he doesn’t belong in yet.

the centers in our draft range in this upcoming draft, won’t be difference makers for many years.

having a ROR or Staal would’ve allowed for proper development... 

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, jame said:

The ROR trade cost us at least 1 playoff run... maybe two (2019-20).

Casey has made almost no progress. And his development has been hindered by rushing him to a league he doesn’t belong in yet.

the centers in our draft range in this upcoming draft, won’t be difference makers for many years.

having a ROR or Staal would’ve allowed for proper development... 

Run? No. It may at the most have cost us the playoffs this year but that's about it. 

To the bolded, this is factually wrong. 

Define many years? Because I would guess they should be NHL ready in 2 years, which for some will not be good but I am fine with that as I think Casey will be fine. 

2nd bolded, having ROR would have allowed proper development, yes. Trading for Staal at this point is closing the door after the cat got out. You can harp on the ROR trade all you want, I do the same with the Lehner trade, but the fact is ROR is gone and we've seen signs that this team can function without him. 

[jame]

29 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Run? No. It may at the most have cost us the playoffs this year but that's about it. 

To the bolded, this is factually wrong. 

Define many years? Because I would guess they should be NHL ready in 2 years, which for some will not be good but I am fine with that as I think Casey will be fine. 

2nd bolded, having ROR would have allowed proper development, yes. Trading for Staal at this point is closing the door after the cat got out. You can harp on the ROR trade all you want, I do the same with the Lehner trade, but the fact is ROR is gone and we've seen signs that this team can function without him. 

 Yes, run. This roster minus the ROR trade would give Toronto a run IMO. 

I’m am eagerly awaiting your presentation of the facts regarding Mittelstadt’s development.

I think 2 years would be incredibly optimistic. The players taken 17-30 in the 2016 draft (2.5 years), 8 of them have 0 NHL games, only 3 have more than 22 games, and of the 3 with more, Tage “i don’t belong in the NHL” Thompson leads the way with 82

Edited January 24, 2019 by jame

[LGR4GM]

What metric for Casey should we use to evaluate his game going forward? 

I actually think the 2016 draft was mediocre and just a step up from 2014. Definitely not as good as 2017 and I am still on the fence with the 2018 draft. 

Sidenote... Rasmus Kupari didn't go until 20th in 2018... that was and I think will be a good pick. I had him at 17th and think that might have been a little too low. 

Edited January 24, 2019 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

The metric I can use for casey is this. In games 1-19 Casey had 6pts, in games 20-39 he had 4pts, and in games 40-48 he has 4pts. 

0.32ppg

0.21ppg

0.44ppg

I think we are seeing an improvement as of late. I think out of everyone on the team, Mittelstadt getting the time off now will be the biggest benefactor. 

Edited January 24, 2019 by LGR4GM

[jame]

19 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I actually think the 2016 draft was mediocre and just a step up from 2014. Definitely not as good as 2017 and I am still on the fence with the 2018 draft. 

Sure take the 2015 draft then... consider that I am advocating trading the SJ 1st, I hope we can agree it’s going to be a late 1st.

picks 19-30 in the 2015 draft... in 3.5 years has only produced 2 impact players (Boeser, Konecny)

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The metric I can use for casey is this. In games 1-19 Casey had 6pts, in games 20-39 he had 4pts, and in games 40-48 he has 4pts. 

0.32ppg

0.21ppg

0.44ppg

I think we are seeing an improvement as of late. I think out of everyone on the team, Mittelstadt getting the time off now will be the biggest benefactor. 

So in the two equal sample ranges he regressed, and you are now leaning on a significantly smaller sample (8 games) to make your case?

regardless... I don’t think 4 points vs 6 points is illustrative of anything (other than not belonging In The NHL)

Edited January 24, 2019 by jame

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, jame said:

Sure take the 2015 draft then... consider that I am advocating trading the SJ 1st, I hope we can agree it’s going to be a late 1st.

picks 19-30 in the 2015 draft... in 3.5 years has only produced 2 impact players (Boeser, Konecny)

Don't forget Aho at #35 overall. 

Yes we agree the SJS pick will be late. I guess it will be 24-28. If we are trading that pick though, it can't be for Staal, it has to be for a younger player who will be with the team for a few years. 

[jame]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Don't forget Aho at #35 overall. 

Yes we agree the SJS pick will be late. I guess it will be 24-28. If we are trading that pick though, it can't be for Staal, it has to be for a younger player who will be with the team for a few years. 

No, it can be for Staal who positively impacts everyone who is critical to our long term success.

[woods-racer]

15 hours ago, Brawndo said:

One team tanked , the other just has really sucked

In the end you wind up looking the same.

[LGR4GM]

33 minutes ago, jame said:

No, it can be for Staal who positively impacts everyone who is critical to our long term success.

100% disagree. I cannot say how much I disagree. 

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, woods-racer said:

In the end you wind up looking the same.

I don't think they look the same. I think one is a middling team with no clear future struggling to find its way with arguably the best player under 25 in the world. The other has a clear set of needs going forward, few old players on bad deals, and multiple picks and assets to build. Are both middling, right now, yes. But one is a dumpster fire being propped up by Connor McDavid and the other has a solid defense forming, with just a need for some more talent up front to help secondary scoring. I think the Oilers outlook for the next 3 years is far below Buffalo's right now. The Oilers need to shed contracts and add assets to help build around McDavid. At least Botterill already has that process underway for Eichel. 

[jame]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

100% disagree. I cannot say how much I disagree. 

I understand the disagreement in the generic terms of "Draft picks/Rebuild/Pipeline".... I don't understand it when you break down the hypothetical impact of Staal vs the hypothetical impact of the draft pick.

 

Hypothetical Impact of Staal:

1. Playoffs - Eichel Core experience, winning, no longer a losing franchise.
2. Proper Development/Usage - Mittelstadt, Thompson, etc

Hypothetical impact of late 2019 1st rounder

1. 2019-20: None
2. 2020-21: None
3. 2021-22: Maybe Depth
4. 2022-23: Depth/Impact
5. 2023-24: MAYBE BIG IMPACT - Eichel in year 6 of 8 year contract

It's sooo much more important for the Eichel core to begin winning, tasting the playoffs.... and to be developing the top talent behind them properly... than it is to have a 4th 1st rounder in the next 2 drafts....

 

 

[woods-racer]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't think they look the same. I think one is a middling team with no clear future struggling to find its way with arguably the best player under 25 in the world. The other has a clear set of needs going forward, few old players on bad deals, and multiple picks and assets to build. Are both middling, right now, yes. But one is a dumpster fire being propped up by Connor McDavid and the other has a solid defense forming, with just a need for some more talent up front to help secondary scoring. I think the Oilers outlook for the next 3 years is far below Buffalo's right now. The Oilers need to shed contracts and add assets to help build around McDavid. At least Botterill already has that process underway for Eichel. 

I don't mean 2-5 years removed very their respective bottoming out *day*.

I agree with you that we are better off, if for no other reason the Sabres figured out sooner that our GM was not good and has made changes sooner and for the better.

My only point is weather you really suck as a team because you have been poorly managed for a decade or do a self induced *tank* it's hard to tell the difference on the lowest day of that era for either team.

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, jame said:

I understand the disagreement in the generic terms of "Draft picks/Rebuild/Pipeline".... I don't understand it when you break down the hypothetical impact of Staal vs the hypothetical impact of the draft pick.

 

Hypothetical Impact of Staal:

1. Playoffs - Eichel Core experience, winning, no longer a losing franchise.
2. Proper Development/Usage - Mittelstadt, Thompson, etc

Hypothetical impact of late 2019 1st rounder

1. 2019-20: None
2. 2020-21: None
3. 2021-22: Maybe Depth
4. 2022-23: Depth/Impact
5. 2023-24: MAYBE BIG IMPACT - Eichel in year 6 of 8 year contract

It's sooo much more important for the Eichel core to begin winning, tasting the playoffs.... and to be developing the top talent behind them properly... than it is to have a 4th 1st rounder in the next 2 drafts....

 

 

Making it to the playoffs and losing in round 1 doesn't make you a winning franchise. Look at Edmonton, they made the playoffs last year and have what to show this year? So yes I will take hypothetical 2. 

They already have begun to win. They now have a frame of reference with the 10 game win streak and you hear them talk about what they did right then and are not now. Adding Staal doesn't suddenly give them that knowledge or belief. I like Staal and would add him, but not for a 1st round pick and things which is what it would cost. 

Hypothetical:

1. Add Staal this offseason for nothing but cap space
2. Get proper development all next year
3. Make the playoffs in 2020
4. in 2021 have that 1st round player looking good
5. in 2022 have that player on the team as you make not a playoff run, but a cup run.