Number of Regulation Losses Left for the Sabres to reach playoffs

[caseydean]

With 54 points and 34 games left, I figure that the team can only lose about 10 more games in regulation and make the playoffs.  Roughly 20 10 4, give or take.  Does that seem about right?  It would give me a better way to countdown the season realistically when games resume.  Thanks!

[Ross Rhea]

6 minutes ago, caseydean said:

With 54 points and 34 games left, I figure that the team can only lose about 10 more games in regulation and make the playoffs.  Roughly 20 10 4, give or take.  Does that seem about right?  It would give me a better way to countdown the season realistically when games resume.  Thanks!

Thats 98 pts, I can't see them even getting to 90 pts right now. I think about 95 is the threshold to get in, so maybe, 18-12-4 gives them 94 and hope someone else falls off but again I don't see them getting to 90.

Edited January 21, 2019 by Ross Rhea

[MattPie]

I haven't updated in a long time, but check out:

I need to add the last 10 or 20 games, but my guess is the Sabres are near the "need to be one of the best teams in hockey" for a while to get on track.

They've certainly squandered a good streak. They only need to play .500 in points after that and I'm not sure they're even doing that.

Edited January 21, 2019 by MattPie

[caseydean]

24 minutes ago, MattPie said:

I haven't updated in a long time, but check out:

I need to add the last 10 or 20 games, but my guess is the Sabres are near the "need to be one of the best teams in hockey" for a while to get on track.

They've certainly squandered a good streak. They only need to play .500 in points after that and I'm not sure they're even doing that.

Thanks.  I agree they need a hot streak to really get back into it.  I don't see it right now either, but it's good to know.  Maybe 10 is a tad low. 

[PalmTreeMafia]

Another way to look at this is that we need any one of the 7 teams above us with 58-62 points to collapse - Wash, Pitt, NYI, Columbus, Boston, Toronto, or Montreal. The most likely team to collapse, in my opinion, is Montreal. They are 5 points ahead of us but have played 2 more games.

 

Edited January 21, 2019 by Marchand'sNose

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, caseydean said:

With 54 points and 34 games left, I figure that the team can only lose about 10 more games in regulation and make the playoffs.  Roughly 20 10 4, give or take.  Does that seem about right?  It would give me a better way to countdown the season realistically when games resume.  Thanks!

That's 98 & that SHOULD be the target that gets them in.

[Weave]

Disheartening to realize our cushion is now 12 losses.  Seems rather........ challenging, at this point.

[Taro T]

8 minutes ago, Weave said:

Disheartening to realize our cushion is now 12 losses.  Seems rather........ challenging, at this point.

They're slightly off pace at present as the 12 losses should be what's left available with 30 games left, but win the next 4 & they're right where they should be.

[Stoner]

Is this one of Elizabeth Kugler-Ross' five stages of grief or one of Dante's Nine Circles of Hell? I get them mixed up.

[MattPie]

2 hours ago, Marchand'sNose said:

Another way to look at this is that we need any one of the 7 teams above us with 58-62 points to collapse - Wash, Pitt, NYI, Columbus, Boston, Toronto, or Montreal. The most likely team to collapse, in my opinion, is Montreal. They are 5 points ahead of us but have played 2 more games.

Watching other teams is fun, but really it's about points. For all the drama in the season, 97 points has gotten in every year. The number is usually more like 93-95 is the break point. For some team to collapse, other teams are picking up those points.

[SABRES 0311]

If it’s going to happen they have to get the power play going. Seems like quite a few games this year were decided by one goal. 

[Stoner]

12 minutes ago, SABRES 0311 said:

If it’s going to happen they have to get the power play going. Seems like quite a few games this year were decided by one goal. 

They have 12 one-goal losses. By the by, in eight of those games they lost a lead. In five of those eight games, they lost a lead twice. Five times in those 12 games they allowed a goal within two minutes of scoring. So in addition to the PP, playing with a lead and not letting down after scoring are areas where major improvements need to be made.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

They have 12 one-goal losses. By the by, in eight of those games they lost a lead. In five of those eight games, they lost a lead twice. Five times in those 12 games they allowed a goal within two minutes of scoring. So in addition to the PP, playing with a lead and not letting down after scoring are areas where major improvements need to be made.

Unless the Larsson line scores, EVERY time the Sabres score a goal (outside of circumstances such as still trailing with 2 or so minutes left) the Girgensons-Larsson-Okposo line should hit the ice to be followed with the Eichel line.  That would cut down on the other team's "immediate" response.

[SABRES 0311]

I’ve pondered the secondary scoring issue as it relates to a JBott trade. I still don’t have a firm answer but with the time off I would like to see Sam take a shot at 2C and move ERod to Jack’s wing, Mitts on Sam’s wing. 

Barring an attempt to shake the roster up to this degree I am in favor of a trade for a 2C. This includes moving Sam to get it done if necessary.

[In The Buff]

I like probably most here have been hoping to see us make a move for a 2C for some time. But now at this point its almost as if its too late in the season for it to make an impact this year. Whats more likely to happen at this point is we'll wait til the offseason after we have a firm idea on what we have now & then we'll make a move or 2. The market should be cheaper too at that point in terms of what players will cost in return.

Stinks imo because we very well couldve been a playoff team this year. But JBots has a long term plan & it appears he's sticking to it

[Weave]

2 hours ago, SABRES 0311 said:

I’ve pondered the secondary scoring issue as it relates to a JBott trade. I still don’t have a firm answer but with the time off I would like to see Sam take a shot at 2C and move ERod to Jack’s wing, Mitts on Sam’s wing. 

Barring an attempt to shake the roster up to this degree I am in favor of a trade for a 2C. This includes moving Sam to get it done if necessary.

I do not want our 3rd best offensive talent traded when what we need is more offense, but 2C is more important IMO than 1RW.  The player coming back would have to be young.

[SABRES 0311]

27 minutes ago, Weave said:

I do not want our 3rd best offensive talent traded when what we need is more offense, but 2C is more important IMO than 1RW.  The player coming back would have to be young.

Sam’s place on this version of the Sabres is relative like any other player/team. Moving him for a real 2C wouldn’t exactly kill an Eichel/Skinner line.

[...]

I found a new GIF that represents the Sabres' season...

[Gatorman0519]

At the end of the streak... literally all we had to do was go .500 and we were in.  Instead we have had the worst record in that stretch since.  I am thinking we finish between 82-86 points.  Improved but not playoff team yet.  The only way we make it is to put together at least another 5-6 win streak in the stretch.  

[SABRES 0311]

6 minutes ago, Gatorman0519 said:

At the end of the streak... literally all we had to do was go .500 and we were in.  Instead we have had the worst record in that stretch since.  I am thinking we finish between 82-86 points.  Improved but not playoff team yet.  The only way we make it is to put together at least another 5-6 win streak in the stretch.  

Which is doable.

[PerreaultForever]

The problem is those damn overtime games. Going to be hard to catch up if those teams like Montreal and Boston pick up points in losses. Montreal is the team that can be had though if we play well. They are not that good. Mostly just in it due to Price having a solid comeback year. 

[caseydean]

Harrington's article this morning is pretty good. Botterill needs to make a couple of trades to show the players the front office cares and wants to make the playoffs.  I understand the long range plan and not mortgaging the future, but that to me is a false dichotomy.  You can trade a pick or two or a prospect or two to get help now--especially if you take on $$$-- without giving up the core of the "future."  Botterill may not have gone through it or caused it, but a decade of futility requires calling an audible on the plan, especially when the Sabres still have a real shot at making the playoffs.  And making the playoffs, more than an extra pick or two, will do more to accelerate the "process" of winning a Cup than anything else. You need to start somewhere.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

14 hours ago, SABRES 0311 said:

Sam’s place on this version of the Sabres is relative like any other player/team. Moving him for a real 2C wouldn’t exactly kill an Eichel/Skinner line.

I have some issue with moving Sam. 

Who on this team do you believe can pick up the offense that he creates, especiallly on the RW?  On a team in need of MORE offense? Certainly not a 2C as it would likely be the same as taking Reino off the 1st line and putting him on the 2nd line in all reality. 

I'd be more inclined to give up picks/prospects to get a 2C in order to ADD to the teams offense. Right now Sam is the type player we all look for....good production and not a burden on the  salary cap or the locker room. And you certainly don't have to give up Sam to get a Coyle (unless your Chiarelli).

[PalmTreeMafia]

On 1/21/2019 at 1:34 PM, MattPie said:

Watching other teams is fun, but really it's about points. For all the drama in the season, 97 points has gotten in every year. The number is usually more like 93-95 is the break point. For some team to collapse, other teams are picking up those points.

 

No, it's about the other 15 teams and not the points. That's quite obviously the way the playoffs are decided; there is no point threshold you can reach to assure playoffs. And we also don't have enough data to make a strong conclusion about this threshold. Five seasons under the new Eastern Conference division alignment and playoff format isn't enough. Here are the points for the lowest wildcard team and also the points for the first team to just miss the playoffs:

2013-14: 93 / 90

2014-15: 98 / 96

2015-16: 96 / 93

2016-17: 95 / 94

2017-18: 97 / 96

So you can perhaps say with some degree of confidence that 99 points will get you in and 92 points will keep you out. But these numbers depend a lot on how top-heavy or bottom-heavy the rest of the league is, or how many games are going into OT. Note that the 97-point demarcation you suggested wasn't sufficient in 2015 and may have also been insufficient last year, depending on the win total.

I think my point is that we - as Sabres fans interested in the playoffs - need to do both: track the team's progress toward the 90-100 point range, but at the same time follow which teams in the top 8 are potentially collapsing (Montreal?) or which teams in the bottom 7 are quickly rising (Carolina?).

 

 

 

 

[MattPie]

16 hours ago, Marchand'sNose said:

 

No, it's about the other 15 teams and not the points. That's quite obviously the way the playoffs are decided; there is no point threshold you can reach to assure playoffs. And we also don't have enough data to make a strong conclusion about this threshold. Five seasons under the new Eastern Conference division alignment and playoff format isn't enough. Here are the points for the lowest wildcard team and also the points for the first team to just miss the playoffs:

2013-14: 93 / 90

2014-15: 98 / 96

2015-16: 96 / 93

2016-17: 95 / 94

2017-18: 97 / 96

So you can perhaps say with some degree of confidence that 99 points will get you in and 92 points will keep you out. But these numbers depend a lot on how top-heavy or bottom-heavy the rest of the league is, or how many games are going into OT. Note that the 97-point demarcation you suggested wasn't sufficient in 2015 and may have also been insufficient last year, depending on the win total.

I think my point is that we - as Sabres fans interested in the playoffs - need to do both: track the team's progress toward the 90-100 point range, but at the same time follow which teams in the top 8 are potentially collapsing (Montreal?) or which teams in the bottom 7 are quickly rising (Carolina?).

You are of course right, but I don't find the value of obsessing over other teams and "points behind" in January. The last two weeks of the season, absolutely. At this point, teams above and below will rise and fall, but if you're on pace for 98 points it's extremely likely you'll make the playoffs regardless of where the other teams are. Maybe this is the year where the top 8 teams in the east have 100+ points, but I doubt it.

I think I may rebase my spreadsheet on 96 or 97 points though. I think I came up with 94 points by using the entire league since the 2005, and if the east is going to consistently require more than that I'll adjust.