Trade Thread -- 2019 Deadline Edition (Actual Trades not Involving Sabres). Also, trade rumors and all other thoughts about anything.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, jame said:

I'm just talking about the cost.... 

The norm around here is "oh my god, no way am I trading a 1st"

Reality is a late 1st results in little tangible draft difference than an early-mid 2nd+3rd

Maybe. But if you want to know if I would rather have Henri Jokiharju or Jonathan Kovacevic... while than the difference between a late first and a third is a ton. 

[jame]

Just now, WildCard said:

There's a pretty solid reason for that

1) We have no prospect pool. 

2) The expansion draft

3) We will have to pay guys like Skinner, Eichel, Dahlin, and possibly Mitts; 1st round picks give you cheap talent

1. Nonsense

2. irrelevant today

3. Late 1sts give you cheap talent... rarely... and when they do, it's at a rate similar to 2nd rounders.

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Maybe. But if you want to know if I would rather have Henri Jokiharju or Jonathan Kovacevic... while than the difference between a late first and a third is a ton. 

Yea, that's a silly cherry picked example

[WildCard]

2 minutes ago, jame said:

1. Nonsense

2. irrelevant today

3. Late 1sts give you cheap talent... rarely... and when they do, it's at a rate similar to 2nd rounders.

I'd be curious why you're so quick to dismiss 1 and 2. Who exactly do we have in the prospect pool? And why is the expansion draft not relevant?

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, jame said:

1. Nonsense

2. irrelevant today

3. Late 1sts give you cheap talent... rarely... and when they do, it's at a rate similar to 2nd rounders.

Actually 1 is pretty accurate. Our prospect pool at forward is thin. Defense is a little better. 

So you are short sighted, good to know. 

Actually you have a good shot at getting cheap talent. While I know there is a huge dropoff as the round progresses, there is also a good chance of getting someone. We shouldn't treat 1sts the same way is seconds. We don't have a 2nd this year, so if we are moving a first it needs to be for a player with term left or who is young, preferably both. Couturier fits that bill, Staal does not. The San Jose pick will probably be in the late 20's but that doesn't mean it is the same as pick 40. Unless we have no faith in our scouting department in which case none of this matters. 

[WildCard]

We can also use our 1sts to move up further in the 1st round if there's a prospect we really want

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, WildCard said:

We can also use our 1sts to move up further in the 1st round if there's a prospect we really want

... maybe. Those types of trades don't happen often. 

[jame]

5 minutes ago, WildCard said:

I'd be curious why you're so quick to dismiss 1 and 2. Who exactly do we have in the prospect pool? And why is the expansion draft not relevant?

Dahlin, Thompson and Mittelstadt are still prospects.

Beyond that.

Borgen, Laaksonen, Samuelsson, Guhle is one of the best non-nhl defensive prospect pipelines in the league. 

Nylander, Olofsson, Asplund, Davidsson is a solid forward pipeline.

UPL is looking like a stud.

Before the season started, most sites/publications had the Sabres prospect pipeline rated #1,2, or 3 in the league

 

Any GM making decisions based on #2 in 2019, should be fired immediately.

Edited January 28, 2019 by jame

[WildCard]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

... maybe. Those types of trades don't happen often. 

Better to have the option. Draft day trades happen a lot too.

[jame]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Actually 1 is pretty accurate. Our prospect pool at forward is thin. Defense is a little better. 

So you are short sighted, good to know. 

Actually you have a good shot at getting cheap talent. While I know there is a huge dropoff as the round progresses, there is also a good chance of getting someone. We shouldn't treat 1sts the same way is seconds. We don't have a 2nd this year, so if we are moving a first it needs to be for a player with term left or who is young, preferably both. Couturier fits that bill, Staal does not. The San Jose pick will probably be in the late 20's but that doesn't mean it is the same as pick 40. Unless we have no faith in our scouting department in which case none of this matters. 

If you think our prospect pool is bad... you're not up to date on our prospects.

[LGR4GM]

What's interesting to me, is that the more I look into this draft, the more comfortable I feel about trading that SJS pick. I think at the midterm part, this draft is going to be better than 2014, but a clear step below 2015. I want to see how things shake out first. 

[jame]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

What's interesting to me, is that the more I look into this draft, the more comfortable I feel about trading that SJS pick. I think at the midterm part, this draft is going to be better than 2014, but a clear step below 2015. I want to see how things shake out first. 

I think there is a huge drop off in the 12-14 range of this draft... I wouldn't trade the Buffalo or St Louis picks in this draft.

Edited January 28, 2019 by jame

[WildCard]

4 minutes ago, jame said:

Dahlin, Thompson and Mittelstadt are still prospects.

Beyond that.

Borgen, Laaksonen, Samuelsson, Guhle is one of the best non-nhl defensive prospect pipelines in the league. 

Nylander, Olofsson, Asplund, Davidsson is a solid forward pipeline.

UPL is looking like a stud.

Before the season started, most sites/publications had the Sabres prospect pipeline rated #1,2, or 3 in the league

Most publications had the Sabres at #1 because of Dahlin. Dahlin and Mitts are full time NHL starters; unfortunately Thompson is too, he just blows

I'd say out of all the other guys you listed, we'd be lucky to get

A 2nd pairing and #7 defender

Two 3rd/4th liners and a top 6 forward

UPL is very young.

I think you have to be very realistic, even pessimistic, with your prospects. You can't assume 80% will hit, you really have to think 15% or so 'hit' as full time NHL starters, and less than that are really that impactful

Edited January 28, 2019 by WildCard

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, jame said:

Dahlin, Thompson and Mittelstadt are still prospects.

Beyond that.

Borgen, Laaksonen, Samuelsson, Guhle is one of the best non-nhl defensive prospect pipelines in the league. 

Nylander, Olofsson, Asplund, Davidsson is a solid forward pipeline.

UPL is looking like a stud.

Before the season started, most sites/publications had the Sabres prospect pipeline rated #1,2, or 3 in the league

No they are not. They are rookies. We are talking about players who are not in Buffalo impacting the team that we can count on to do that in the future. 

That forward pipeline is bad. There are only 4 players in it. Asplund is a 3c at best. Nylander might be a top 6 winger. Olofsson is still a question mark but let's say middle 6. Davidsson doesn't play in NA yet but is probably middle 6. So at best for 12 forward spots we have maybe 3 guys coming. 

1 minute ago, WildCard said:

Most publications had the Sabres at #1 because of Dahlin. Dahlin and Mitts are full time NHL starters; unfrotunately Thompson is too, he just blows

I'd say out of all the other guys you listed, we'd be lucky to get

A 2nd pairing and #7 defender

Two 3rd/4th liners and a top 6 forward

UPL is very young.

I think you have to be very realistic, even pessimistic, with your prospects. You can't assume 80% will hit, you really have to think 15% or so 'hit' as full time NHL starters, and less than that are really that impactful

I would expect 50% of the forwards and the defenders named will not be impact NHL players. Our pool is thin especially at forward. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

20 minutes ago, inkman said:

Like a kid at Neverland, Mitts is definitely touchable in my book. 

yikes ...

[WildCard]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I would expect 50% of the forwards and the defenders named will not be impact NHL players. Our pool is thin especially at forward. 

I honestly think less than that. Almost all of those guys are McCabe level at best for the defenders, or a Sheary/Hecht for forwards. Maybe 1 defender and 1 forward end up 2nd pairing and top 6 IMO, the rest are JAGs

[LGR4GM]

20 minutes ago, jame said:

1. Nonsense

2. irrelevant today

3. Late 1sts give you cheap talent... rarely... and when they do, it's at a rate similar to 2nd rounders.

Yea, that's a silly cherry picked example

You cherry pick examples, I think I should be able too as well. 

4 minutes ago, WildCard said:

I honestly think less than that. Almost all of those guys are McCabe level at best for the defenders, or a Sheary/Hecht for forwards. Maybe 1 defender and 1 forward end up 2nd pairing and top 6 IMO, the rest are JAGs

Yes. I think  you are correct and this is probably a better way to think about the prospect pool. 

[North Buffalo]

You guys have been following the draft potential closer than I and I agree center depth is weak, so Mitts is off the table even if effort to get another.

[jame]

17 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

No they are not. They are rookies. We are talking about players who are not in Buffalo impacting the team that we can count on to do that in the future. 

That forward pipeline is bad. There are only 4 players in it. Asplund is a 3c at best. Nylander might be a top 6 winger. Olofsson is still a question mark but let's say middle 6. Davidsson doesn't play in NA yet but is probably middle 6. So at best for 12 forward spots we have maybe 3 guys coming. 

I would expect 50% of the forwards and the defenders named will not be impact NHL players. Our pool is thin especially at forward. 

So you believe Mittelstadt today, is the player he will be in 2-3 years? If the answer is yes... then you can stop calling him a prospect. I'll assume the answer is "No, I think he's going to be much better than he is as a 20 year old today"... when you provide that answer, you will be confirming that he is still a prospect.

If you are considering Mitts, Dahlin, etc NOT prospects...then you should be even less concerned about our pipeline, as you've now etched them in to their PROJECTED roles... and our pipeline becomes far less concerning when the core is locked in at its top potential.

Asplund and Davidsson being "bottom 6 center" prospects... is hardly an issue when you've annointed Mittelstadt as a #2 NHL center behind Eichel... 

Olofsson and Nylander being question marks (your words) is hardly an issue when we have Reinhart, Skinner, and a proven NHLer (in your mind) in Thompson

 

[WildCard]

Regardless of anything else you said Jame, we really have to stop thinking Tage Thompson is good, or even will be. In 41 GP last year he had 9 points, in more opportunities this year in 41 GP he has...10 points. He is bad, and will always be bad/mediocre at best

[shrader]

Am I seriously seeing one person overvalue* prospects while LGR is undervaluing* them?  My world has been turned upside down.

 

*Over and under is based solely on poster 1's valuation relative to poster 2's.

[jame]

41 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

I would expect 50% of the forwards and the defenders named will not be impact NHL players. Our pool is thin especially at forward. 

Yea... isn't that what you believe in, depth?

We have our core of impact players... and they will be with us for years to come. Maybe 1 or 2 guys from the non-nhl roster will be impact players... probably not. But that's now what we need... we need a pipeline of ELC NHL depth... I thought we actually agreed on this. I just don't believe every single first rounder is critical to building that pipeline. and we are just as capable of building it with good scouting/drafting in the mid rounds (Samuelsson, Laaksonen,etc) as we are with late 1sts.

[jame]

18 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Regardless of anything else you said Jame, we really have to stop thinking Tage Thompson is good, or even will be. In 41 GP last year he had 9 points, in more opportunities this year in 41 GP he has...10 points. He is bad, and will always be bad/mediocre at best

I agree. We really need Botts to not suck at his job so we can develop our prospects where they belong. Neither Tage or Mitts belonged in the NHL this year... it's been a gross mismanagement.

I don't think he's bad. I think he has NHL skills... we are just doing a terrible job of properly developing those skills. He should be building in the AHL, getting comfortable dominating with his size at a level that's appropriate.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

1 hour ago, jame said:

I agree. We really need Botts to not suck at his job so we can develop our prospects where they belong. Neither Tage or Mitts belonged in the NHL this year... it's been a gross mismanagement.

I don't think he's bad. I think he has NHL skills... we are just doing a terrible job of properly developing those skills. He should be building in the AHL, getting comfortable dominating with his size at a level that's appropriate.

I think there's more aspects than just assuming the bolded being correct. For example...Mitts' play throughout his career (H,S.,college, and 6g stint last year) gave everyone, from Bots to scouts to analysts to the fans, reason to believe he would've produced better than he has so far this year. The fact that he really doesn't have quality or stability on his flanks hasn't helped either. While this may "partly" be on Bots, I don't think it's any indication that he "sucks" at his job.

To go along with the Mitts issue is the TT issue. The problem could be more of....if we send them down then who replaces them? It would take a trade to fill both positions and it takes more than one GM to work out a trade. If you can confirm without a doubt that Bots has had reasonable offers on any of our trash to make sending them down an option, please confirm by all means. There is more to it than just that, you then need to find a place for the guys in Roch that they will replace. You have to consider all the moves that need to be made and they also take time. Both players are progressing in a forward direction, I would be more concerned about what Bots was doing if they weren't.

Rather than seeing Mitts demoted to the AHL or a 3C role, I would rather see us get a quality 2C and try Mitts on a wing. Also get another winger. Have E-Rod or Sobotka center a third line.

[Hoss]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

What's interesting to me, is that the more I look into this draft, the more comfortable I feel about trading that SJS pick. I think at the midterm part, this draft is going to be better than 2014, but a clear step below 2015. I want to see how things shake out first. 

I think judging entire drafts months in advance as opposed to years afterward is the silliest exercise in sports.

[North Buffalo]