Should analytics be banned from normal everyday threads?

[darksabre]

1 minute ago, SwampD said:

It's still not luck and I shouldn't feel grateful that we got lucky enough to win.

This gets to the core of this thread. As our team gets better, all the stats folk are going to have to get comfortable being on the "lucky" side of the odds.

 

 

Something something pedantic.....

Sure it is. And I have no idea what you mean by the first bolded.

As to the second bolded, as the team gets better, they won't need as much luck, because it will mean that they are exercising control over more variables than they were previously. Kind of like how knowing what you're doing is better than not knowing what you're doing at the casino.

That's why Jack, who still needs luck, doesn't need to be as lucky as a less talented player like Larsson. Because he has more control. Just not infinite control.

[MattPie]

I'll add two things:

1. If the advanced stats said the Sabres win streak was unsustainable, they were 100% right. The team has looked the same level of mediocre before and after.
2. If a player could hit a 6x6" area in the corner of the net with precision every time, there'd be a lot more goals scored in the NHL. Also, players would go 4 for 4 in that plate breaking thing in the All-star game with regularity. This doesn't diminish Jack making that shot, but he probably only hits it a few times out of 10, which is a lot more than most players.

[dudacek]

You guys!

Analytics come from a place of white male privilege

And so does classical music.

Condescension is what I have to wipe off my windshield in the morning when underprivileged Easterners are scraping ice.

I like hockey.

?

Edited January 17, 2019 by dudacek

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

You guys!

Analytics come from a place of white male privilege

And so does classical music.

Condescension is what I have to wipe of my windshield in the morning when underprivileged Easterners are scraping ice.

I like hockey.

?

Sometimes If I run out of windshield wiper fluid I rub snow onto the windshield and spread it around with my scraper brush. 

[SwampD]

20 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Sure it is. And I have no idea what you mean by the first bolded.

As to the second bolded, as the team gets better, they won't need as much luck, because it will mean that they are exercising control over more variables than they were previously. Kind of like how knowing what you're doing is better than not knowing what you're doing at the casino.

That's why Jack, who still needs luck, doesn't need to be as lucky as a less talented player like Larsson. Because he has more control. Just not infinite control.

So stats are just a measure of how lucky someone or something is?

I think I'm done with this thread. I'll just end by saying stats are a result, not a cause.

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, SwampD said:

So stats are just a measure of how lucky someone or something is?

I think I'm done with this thread. I'll just end by saying stats are a result, not a cause.

Stats aren't a result or a cause. They attempt to quantify results. 

Edited January 17, 2019 by Thorny

[SDS]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Let's use the Pilut example. The second I saw he was pulled from the lineup I was mad. So I went to the stats to see if I was right in being mad. Now let's say a poster trusts Housley. That poster comes in and says "It's fine to bench Pilut because Housley knows what he is doing." Okay that is a fair thought. I then come in with stats showing why I believe Housley is wrong. What is being said is I cannot use evidence to back up my opinion. 

The irony is that I am now being told how I should feel. I should feel happy the Sabres won. I shouldn't want to look deeper because they won. I should shut up and be happy.

This is a "know your audience" thing. I have to deal with this a lot on the Bills side due to the volume and the large amount of unsophisticated NFL fans that pass through. 

Most people want to be heard. The problem is when the audience isn't the right fit for the message.

In the case of an "ugly" win, complaints about the weak, underlying fundamentals of the game would play better to a stat focused community. To the average fan? Not so much. I think most of us are here for the traditional entertainment value of the sport - the value of which increases greatly with a favorable scoresheet.

The other point worth mentioning is that no one here can do *anything* about the team's analytics. Not a single thing. So, even if you convince me that the win I was previously happy about is now hot garbage, the only thing accomplished is one less happy person in the world. Yay? 

None of this means you have to consume your entertainment like the rest of us. To each his own. But you have to understand the room and be willing to accept that a negative reaction to the most fundamental result of sport - happiness when your side wins the game - is to be expected.

[TrueBlueGED]

3 hours ago, SwampD said:

You can't tell me, though, that when AS are often mentioned here, that there isn't also a condescending overtone attached to them. Which is ironic because as they stand today, ASs are flawed and incomplete.

And even that I don't really mind. I just find them to be a downer. I live for the day when somebody posts a data point that actually makes me feel good about my team.

When the team is actually good, you'll have plenty of data points doing exactly this. 

And not for nothin, but I don't need stats to tell you the 10 game winning streak was unsustainable. All I have to do is point to Sobotka and Okposo playing anything more than 10 minutes per game. 

3 hours ago, Doohickie said:

It's the condescending part.

I will admit that the people talking stats don't realize they're doing it, but you could see it in the thread:  What a great game!  We won!  YEAH, BUT IT WASN'T SUSTAINABLE SO IF YOU TOOK JOY IN IT YOU'RE AN IDIOT.

How many times does this actually happen versus you just perceiving it happens? Maybe in the day or two after a game, but so immediately after that it ruins you enjoyment of the win? I suspect it's quite rare. 

And do you honestly think the stats crew are the only condescending bunch? If I had a dollar for every "but his corsi" or "face offs don't matter I guess (after a win leads to something)" or "some loser in his mom's basement" I wouldn't have to worry about the job market. 

[That Aud Smell]

1 minute ago, SDS said:

The other point worth mentioning is that no one here can do *anything* about the team's analytics. Not a single thing. So, even if you convince me that the win I was previously happy about is now hot garbage, the only thing accomplished is one less happy person in the world. Yay? 

Something something about the mind that can simultaneously hold two contrary thoughts.

This is routinely how I experience things: I enjoy the game in the moment (or I don't enjoy it ...) and then I peruse stats during off-hours.

[TrueBlueGED]

3 minutes ago, SDS said:

This is a "know your audience" thing. I have to deal with this a lot on the Bills side due to the volume and the large amount of unsophisticated NFL fans that pass through. 

Most people want to be heard. The problem is when the audience isn't the right fit for the message.

In the case of an "ugly" win, complaints about the weak, underlying fundamentals of the game would play better to a stat focused community. To the average fan? Not so much. I think most of us are here for the traditional entertainment value of the sport - the value of which increases greatly with a favorable scoresheet.

The other point worth mentioning is that no one here can do *anything* about the team's analytics. Not a single thing. So, even if you convince me that the win I was previously happy about is now hot garbage, the only thing accomplished is one less happy person in the world. Yay? 

None of this means you have to consume your entertainment like the rest of us. To each his own. But you have to understand the room and be willing to accept that a negative reaction to the most fundamental result of sport - happiness when your side wins the game - is to be expected.

If being able to do anything about it is the measure of valuable content, you should just close this place down. I understand the meta point you're making, it we also can't do anything about trades, or prospect development, or anything else really. Plenty of posts dump on the notion of prospects and patience because they haven't prove anything yet...should we also clamp down on those posts because they might ruin the enjoyment for someone who likes following prospects from draft to the big show? 

[TrueBlueGED]

2 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Something something about the mind that can simultaneously hold two contrary thoughts.

This is routinely how I experience things: I enjoy the game in the moment (or I don't enjoy it ...) and then I peruse stats during off-hours.

Yup. Same. I once screamed "I love this team!" without any regard for strongly suspecting it wasn't sustainable. Didn't do anything to reduce my enjoyment in the moment. It's weird to me it does ruin it for some. 

Something about true happiness coming from within and not needing external validation. (Now THAT was condescension!) 

[Thorner]

7 minutes ago, SDS said:

This is a "know your audience" thing. I have to deal with this a lot on the Bills side due to the volume and the large amount of unsophisticated NFL fans that pass through. 

Most people want to be heard. The problem is when the audience isn't the right fit for the message.

In the case of an "ugly" win, complaints about the weak, underlying fundamentals of the game would play better to a stat focused community. To the average fan? Not so much. I think most of us are here for the traditional entertainment value of the sport - the value of which increases greatly with a favorable scoresheet.

The other point worth mentioning is that no one here can do *anything* about the team's analytics. Not a single thing. So, even if you convince me that the win I was previously happy about is now hot garbage, the only thing accomplished is one less happy person in the world. Yay? 

None of this means you have to consume your entertainment like the rest of us. To each his own. But you have to understand the room and be willing to accept that a negative reaction to the most fundamental result of sport - happiness when your side wins the game - is to be expected.

I struggle with this a little bit, because it's rooted in the idea that a deeper statistical understanding of what is happening in an individual game somehow necessarily needs to be determinant of one's mood. 

It's all perspective. If the Sabres underlying numbers are terrible in a game and they win, I can easily look at that as "found money'", like a "break point" in Tennis, and expect and hope for the Sabres to capitalize on their better numbers when they eventually regress to the mean. 

[Doohicksie]

12 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

How many times does this actually happen versus you just perceiving it happens?

Well the Sabres haven't been winning much lately so.... not very much actually.

[SDS]

10 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

If being able to do anything about it is the measure of valuable content, you should just close this place down. I understand the meta point you're making, it we also can't do anything about trades, or prospect development, or anything else really. Plenty of posts dump on the notion of prospects and patience because they haven't prove anything yet...should we also clamp down on those posts because they might ruin the enjoyment for someone who likes following prospects from draft to the big show? 

I don't know where this sentiment is coming from.

My point was simply to state that the act of convincing me to evaluate a game through the analytic lens bears no tangible fruit. 

A better example would be the hysterical Mahomes supporters who want nothing less than a complete, unconditional surrender of anyone who didn't agree with them two years ago. To what end? Why are they yelling at people? Why are they telling everyone they told you so? Why are they screaming at us how stupid the Bills are after every game the Chiefs play? I dunno Wally. I have no power.

[WildCard]

4 minutes ago, SDS said:

I don't know where this sentiment is coming from.

My point was simply to state that the act of convincing me to evaluate a game through the analytic lens anyone about anything on here bears no tangible fruit. Actually, come to think of it, you should all just stop posting

We come here for fun, and for some that fun is debate. Nothing we do on here has any tangible result, ranking content matter based on that is fruitless itself

[steveoath]

What's a corsi? ?

[TrueBlueGED]

10 minutes ago, SDS said:

I don't know where this sentiment is coming from.

My point was simply to state that the act of convincing me to evaluate a game through the analytic lens bears no tangible fruit. 

A better example would be the hysterical Mahomes supporters who want nothing less than a complete, unconditional surrender of anyone who didn't agree with them two years ago. To what end? Why are they yelling at people? Why are they telling everyone they told you so? Why are they screaming at us how stupid the Bills are after every game the Chiefs play? I dunno Wally. I have no power.

 

4 minutes ago, WildCard said:

We come here for fun, and for some that fun is debate. Nothing we do on here has any tangible result, ranking content matter based on that is fruitless itself

 Basically what WildCard said. Convincing someone that we should/shouldn't trade one of our 1sts for help now doesn't bear any fruit either. There is no greater end in that debate than in discussing using stats to analyze the game. Yet somehow that hasn't come under fire. And that's the point, whether something here has any impact in the real world shouldn't be the measure of whether the discussion itself is worthwhile. 

[Thorner]

12 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

 

 Basically what WildCard said. Convincing someone that we should/shouldn't trade one of our 1sts for help now doesn't bear any fruit either. There is no greater end in that debate than in discussing using stats to analyze the game. Yet somehow that hasn't come under fire. And that's the point, whether something here has any impact in the real world shouldn't be the measure of whether the discussion itself is worthwhile. 

The argument though is that the analytical stuff is having a real world impact, on the real people reading the information, and coming away from it thinking it was needlessly negative. 

It's a tough push and pull. The intent to "damper" others' moods I don't believe is there, but nonetheless that clearly is resulting. It sounds like we are trying to figure out whether to tell those who enjoy delving into, and posting about, the underlying statistics not to, or, tell those being brought down by them to find a different inference.

It's easy to see both sides. 

Edited January 17, 2019 by Thorny

[TrueBlueGED]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

The argument though is that the analytical analysis is having a real world impact, on the real people reading the information, and coming away from it thinking it was needlessly negative. 

It's a tough push and pull. The intent to "damper" others' moods I don't believe is there, but nonetheless that clearly is resulting, regardless. It sounds like we are trying to figure out whether to tell those who enjoy delving into, and posting about, the underlying statistics not to, or, tell those being brought down by them to find a different inference.

It's easy to see both sides. 

I'm cognizant of that and usually leave that stuff out of the GDTs because of it. But I mean, the same thing might happen to posters when someone says to trade their favorite player, or always points out that player's flaws. No tangible fruit other than to impact somebody. But that stuff never gets talked about as being inappropriate for a thread, or something that should be relegated to its own thread. 

Edited January 17, 2019 by TrueBlueGED

[Thorner]

2 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

I'm cognizant of that and usually leave that stuff out of the GDTs because of it. But I mean, the same thing might happen to posters when someone says to trade their favorite player, or always points out that player's flaws. No tangible fruit other than to impact somebody. But that stuff never gets talked about as being inappropriate for a thread, or something that should be relegated to its own thread. 

A great point. There's definitely an extra taboo around what is classified as "advanced stats". I mean, I'd forgive someone for thinking the classification itself sounds inherently pretentious. 

Just by introducing the term into conversation is going to lead to some of the perceived "shade" being thrown that keeps being mentioned. The perceived condescension. 

"That's ok, you can follow what you like in a game, I'll follow the advanced stats". How does that read?

[TrueBlueGED]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

A great point. There's definitely an extra taboo around what is classified as "advanced stats". I mean, I'd forgive someone for thinking the classification itself sounds inherently pretentious. 

Just by introducing the term into conversation is going to lead to some of the perceived "shade" being thrown that keeps being mentioned. The perceived condescension. 

"That's ok, you can follow what you like in a game, I'll follow the advanced stats". How does that read?

Hey, you're preaching to the choir here. I'd prefer to just refer to them as stats. Because, after all, that's all they are. But I also think the anti-stats crowd has flipped it around some to use advanced as a derogatory term. PA does it regularly when he talks about how counting shots isn't advanced. 

Edit: Just to expand, PA isn't wrong when he says that about Corsi and its variants. xG I would consider advanced so far as these things go, but that's definitely used less around here anyway. 

As a whole I'm skeptical that changing the terminology would change the reception that these things get so long as the team is in a state that the stats say they're not very good. I'm not opposed to trying though. 

Edited January 17, 2019 by TrueBlueGED

[Stoner]

1 hour ago, darksabre said:

Jack has worked on that exact shot hundreds of thousands of times? The one in that occurred uniquely in time and space last night?

I had no idea Jack was a time traveler.

Really? Don't you remember Linus finding "Old Jack Eichel"'s pic at the Anchor Bar?

50 minutes ago, steveoath said:

What's a corsi? ?

Edited January 17, 2019 by PASabreFan

[SwampD]

See, I knew this would be an interesting discussion.

32 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

I'm cognizant of that and usually leave that stuff out of the GDTs because of it. But I mean, the same thing might happen to posters when someone says to trade their favorite player, or always points out that player's flaws. No tangible fruit other than to impact somebody. But that stuff never gets talked about as being inappropriate for a thread, or something that should be relegated to its own thread. 

Stats absolutely have a place here and I think this is the perfect use of them, as each side came use them to make their case.

In a GDT in which we won, though, they come acrost as

 

[Thorner]

The issue becomes, even if it is determined to be the correct and chosen course of action, how on earth do you ban "Advanced Stats" from a GDT? Is there a filter? Lol. Seems to be a ridiculously slippery slope.

Is, "I don't like how many shots we are giving up from in the slot, we are getting way less from there, even though we are up 1", advanced stats? As PA has alluded to, he's been making "advanced stats" observations since before the term was coined.

The issue rather seems to be language rather than content, in many cases.

Edited January 17, 2019 by Thorny

[Weave]

Cheese and rice, there are alot of youz that are clearly not busy enough doing actual work during the work day.