GDT: Sabres @ Hurricanes -- Jan. 11, 2019

[Stoner]

11 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Or his GM explained to him that the team everyone saw during the streak is not what this team really is.

Getting twenty out of twenty possible points is a remarkable feat and was the most fun Sabres Fans have had in years. That unfortunately does not hide the fact that they won 3 of those games in regulation and only outshot their opponents in two of those games.  Take out the streak and they are playing on a low seventies point pace. 

One player is not going to change that and trading for two cost would be even more cost prohibitive. 

 When Botterill took this job he laid out a vision to The Pegulas on how to improve it, with the lack of talent and depth in this organization it was never going to be a playoff contender in two years.  He probably has explained the best way to improve the team is to wait until June when all 30 other teams will be more likely make moves and July 1st as this Free Agent Class looks deep. 

It’s frustrating to go through this as fans, but it’s the right way to build. 

Yuck. If that's true, Skinner's gone for sure. Who would want to be a part of such a sad-sack organization when so many better options will present themselves?

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

11 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Or his GM explained to him that the team everyone saw during the streak is not what this team really is.

Getting twenty out of twenty possible points is a remarkable feat and was the most fun Sabres Fans have had in years. That unfortunately does not hide the fact that they won 3 of those games in regulation and only outshot their opponents in two of those games.  Take out the streak and they are playing on a low seventies point pace. 

One player is not going to change that and trading for two cost would be even more cost prohibitive. 

 When Botterill took this job he laid out a vision to The Pegulas on how to improve it, with the lack of talent and depth in this organization it was never going to be a playoff contender in two years.  He probably has explained the best way to improve the team is to wait until June when all 30 other teams will be more likely make moves and July 1st as this Free Agent Class looks deep. 

It’s frustrating to go through this as fans, but it’s the right way to build. 

This is where I worry the most. If the "class" is deep, then maybe that will bring down the cost of good players (maybe not). Also, why are these players on the market? We've all seen teams marching to agencies presenting their "offers" for guys who end up not being what the team hoped they were getting. On the other hand, some players turned out to be "diamonds in the rough". All I hope for is that JB exercise caution in signing players for the future.

[nfreeman]

My 2 cents:

- Overall, I thought the effort was there last night but not the execution.  Jack in particular looked quite rusty to me.  His line seemed like it was completely unable to gain the zone and get the cycle going and his passes were off target.

- The TT-with-Jack experiment was a crashing failure, but I'm not sure how much of that was due to TT and how much was due to Jack being rusty.  Still, I had no problem with moving Reino back to Jack's line in the 3rd because having TT there clearly wasn't working.

- I thought Reino's line generated more offense than Jack's line did in the 1st 2 periods.

- I'm starting to think Sheary is useless.  I like his speed and tenacity, and I think he has good hockey IQ, but it seems like he whiffs on the puck far too often.

- ERod generated the most offense out of any of the forwards last night IMHO.

- I don't think I've ever seen a game in which one team had 3 goals against deflect in off of their own defensemen.

- Having said that, my issue with the D last night wasn't the deflections so much as it was the inability to crisply exit the zone with a quick pass.  This was my other big issue with execution last night.

- Still no back-to-back wins since the end of the streak. 

[bills_fan_in_raleigh]

I think must of the good passing was affected by the crap piece of ***** they call ice at the arena.  You could see how the passes were softer hoping they wouldn’t go bouncing like mad.  Turnovers in own zone lead to everyone of the goals.  Why Housley did t put his top line together for a road game shows what a misguided fool he is.  

[Pimlach]

2 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Yuck. If that's true, Skinner's gone for sure. Who would want to be a part of such a sad-sack organization when so many better options will present themselves?

Not so sure about many better options.  Skinner must realize that a good part of his goal scoring opportunities come from playing with Eichel. 

So Buffalo provides these benefits:

1.   Eichel, plus solid NHL players like Rienhart and Risto that are already signed. 

2.   Real hockey town with fans who voted him into the all star game despite the smaller market size (he knows this and likes it) 

3.   youth coming up and gain NHL experience in Mitts, Tage, Dahlin, Pilut, and Uhlmark - plus maybe some NHL talent in Nylander and Guhle and the Finn Goalie

4.  JBOT - gaining respect around the league, very smart guy, and I think he knows how to communicate the plan to Skinner

5.  Pegulas - ?  well,  uhmmm, uh - they are generous and kind people and  Kim is the prettiest owner in league.

6.  Close to his hometown and family. 

[Scottysabres]

5 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

This whole post is where the problem lies. It's called FAN EXPECTATIONS based on a 10 game "lucky bounce streak".

1. i'm sure the Pegulas gave JB "time" to turn this thing around. Not a week, month, or even a year. It takes time to make the moves and it takes more than one GM to make a trade happen. You're looking at building a whole organization and not just adding a player or two.

2. I'm also sure that JB is well aware of where we were in the standings. I'm sure he's also aware of the talent he has to work with (and where this team is lacking said talent). He's also aware that the 10 game streak is what we have to look forward to in the future on a more regular basis once his work is done. He knows this skid shows that what he has proclaimed on many occasions is true...there's more work to be done. 

3. We as fans have seen many strategies that have not come to fruition and there is no real proven fool-proof answer to what does work. All I can say is that this version so far has been better to watch than recent years and I'm looking forward to the next year for an even more improved team and take it from there. Coach Phil has a usage problem we are all to well familiar with. The reason....the talent level more so than anything. nothing in the middle six seems to be working and that's not his fault and I'm sure JB knows where the "work needs to be done" to give Phil the opportunity to succeed.

4. Who has been our better players this year...Eichel ,Skinner, Sam for sure. Beyond that I'd have to say Bogo is proving to be more of the player we hoped he be when we traded for him and deserves to wear an A. KO leads by example  and may have lost the talent he once had but not his energy. Risto has been a beast most of the season. Girgs and Larry have surprised us all. The leadership part of this team has provided just that. Now we need to get the talent that is capable of following what the leadership is providing.

With the much improved play of the D this year and the core of forwards we have, I am looking forward to what moves JB will make to improve on what we currently have. If you want to think we should make the playoffs now and are unhappy with where we are with the talent we have, then I suggest you look at some other team rosters and remind yourself we could (and should ) be worse than some other teams. We have threads that say we should be plucking players from other teams, why? How? Philly has Giroux and Couturier(in 30th place), STL has O'Reilley and Schenn (in 25th place), CHI has Toews and Anisimov. I think that covers some of the players that have been mentioned as trades. With good depth at the C position they aren't CUP contenders either. Each team has different needs or the same, but are trying to pluck from the same talent pool. we don't have a Sid/ Malkin combo and neither do alot of other teams.

The streak might have been the worst thing to happen. It made the fans unrealistic in their expectations for this year, and the players may have thought that they were better than they are as a team.

Ahhh, but there in lay the problem with the "win streak was a series of lucky bounces" mindset. It wasn't.

The team actually performed better for a majority of that streak, "Lucky bounces" played a minimal role imo. The team can and has, play better than what has been witnessed since the streak. Indeed, the 1st loss against the lightning they still performed at a higher level than what has been recently witnessed imo.

[Stoner]

3 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Not so sure about many better options.  Skinner must realize that a good part of his goal scoring opportunities come from playing with Eichel. 

So Buffalo provides these benefits:

1.   Eichel, plus solid NHL players like Rienhart and Risto that are already signed. 

2.   Real hockey town with fans who voted him into the all star game despite the smaller market size (he knows this and likes it) 

3.   youth coming up and gain NHL experience in Mitts, Tage, Dahlin, Pilut, and Uhlmark - plus maybe some NHL talent in Nylander and Guhle and the Finn Goalie

4.  JBOT - gaining respect around the league, very smart guy, and I think he knows how to communicate the plan to Skinner

5.  Pegulas - ?  well,  uhmmm, uh - they are generous and kind people and  Kim is the prettiest owner in league.

6.  Close to his hometown and family. 

If he really wants to win, and if he thinks Botterill sat on his hands with a team that won 10 straight games and had Eichel AND a Rocket Richard candidate, I don't see the allure of Buffalo to him.

[darksabre]

1 hour ago, Scottysabres said:

Ahhh, but there in lay the problem with the "win streak was a series of lucky bounces" mindset. It wasn't.

The team actually performed better for a majority of that streak, "Lucky bounces" played a minimal role imo. The team can and has, play better than what has been witnessed since the streak. Indeed, the 1st loss against the lightning they still performed at a higher level than what has been recently witnessed imo.

This is factually incorrect. The underlying metrics of the streak indicate, clear as day, that they were extremely lucky. 

[Thorner]

4 hours ago, nfreeman said:

My 2 cents:

- Overall, I thought the effort was there last night but not the execution.  Jack in particular looked quite rusty to me.  His line seemed like it was completely unable to gain the zone and get the cycle going and his passes were off target.

- The TT-with-Jack experiment was a crashing failure, but I'm not sure how much of that was due to TT and how much was due to Jack being rusty.  Still, I had no problem with moving Reino back to Jack's line in the 3rd because having TT there clearly wasn't working.

- I thought Reino's line generated more offense than Jack's line did in the 1st 2 periods.

- I'm starting to think Sheary is useless.  I like his speed and tenacity, and I think he has good hockey IQ, but it seems like he whiffs on the puck far too often.

- ERod generated the most offense out of any of the forwards last night IMHO.

- I don't think I've ever seen a game in which one team had 3 goals against deflect in off of their own defensemen.

- Having said that, my issue with the D last night wasn't the deflections so much as it was the inability to crisply exit the zone with a quick pass.  This was my other big issue with execution last night.

- Still no back-to-back wins since the end of the streak. 

They actually did win two in a row, against LA and Arizona, December 11 and 13.

[Thorner]

11 minutes ago, darksabre said:

This is factually incorrect. The underlying metrics of the streak indicate, clear as day, that they were extremely lucky. 

The larger this non-streak, mid-70s point pace sample size gets, the more lucky the streak seems in retrospect. This has been the "real" Sabres for the lion's share of the season. 

[Scottysabres]

59 minutes ago, darksabre said:

This is factually incorrect. The underlying metrics of the streak indicate, clear as day, that they were extremely lucky. 

It's only factually incorrect by "underlying metrics".

Please point to every "lucky bounce" through the entire 10 games. If you can do this, I will concede. I'm strongly betting you can't.

[darksabre]

Just now, Scottysabres said:

It's only factually incorrect by "underlying metrics".

Please point to every "lucky bounce" through the entire 10 games. If you can do this, I will concede. I'm strongly betting you can't.

That's not the point at all. Maybe you're one of those people who poopoos fancy stats, but the fancy stats were right about what this team was doing during the streak: getting extremely lucky. 

[Scottysabres]

22 minutes ago, darksabre said:

That's not the point at all. Maybe you're one of those people who poopoos fancy stats, but the fancy stats were right about what this team was doing during the streak: getting extremely lucky. 

No, I realize the stats show they exceeded expectations, but I'm merely questioning why all 10 wins or 10 wins in a row had to be labeled lucky bounces is all. I concede completely the streak was unexpected, but I watched all 10 games, stats put aside for a moment, they appeared to me in any in event, in that stretch, to have more pep in their step, more focus, they looked like they were having fun.

The real issue with that label to me is this, they showed they can do it. I don't expect 10 in a row every 25 games, but I since they showed they can do it, and now that they're back to nearly fully healthy since then, I see no reason why they shouldn't be able to sustain a more consistent win % is all. As a number of posters pointed out here, .500 hockey should be attainable.

[Thorner]

I'd settle for this team getting back to playing at the pace it did pre-streak. We can debate all day about how much luck went into the streak, but at the end of the day what matters is that it happened. The pace we were playing at before the streak was more than good enough to make the playoffs had we returned to it post-streak, but instead, they've lost 13 of 19 games. 

In the reality that existed after the streak ended, the Sabres should have made the playoffs. If they can't play at the rate necessary to make it after that, there's a failure in roster construction for this season, coaching, or player performance. Or a combination. If the loss of Berglund is what's making a huge difference here, Botterill should feel obligated to replace him. 

[Pimlach]

Very interesting comments from all. 

I hate to say we were lucky in the 10 game streak but we sure did find a way to come back from behind, win in OT, get amazing goaltending from Hutton, and get more balanced scoring.  Ten game win streaks are rare because they take great play AND luck.   

Now our road record is deteriorating,  Hutton is playing like a quality back up, teams are focusing on Jacks line, teams are taking advantage of our youth, and balanced score is even more of a problem.  

 

Trading for a quality center - one that will stay with us, fit in the payroll, and fix our problems.  It’s not easy to do at mid season.  

 

 

 

 

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

I'd settle for this team getting back to playing at the pace it did pre-streak. We can debate all day about how much luck went into the streak, but at the end of the day what matters is that it happened. The pace we were playing at before the streak was more than good enough to make the playoffs had we returned to it post-streak, but instead, they've lost 13 of 19 games. 

In the reality that existed after the streak ended, the Sabres should have made the playoffs. If they can't play at the rate necessary to make it after that, there's a failure in roster construction for this season, coaching, or player performance. Or a combination. If the loss of Berglund is what's making a huge difference here, Botterill should feel obligated to replace him. 

IF the Sabres win tonight, they ARE on that pace.  12- 14 - 12 - 10 - (6 in 5) is right on 96 through 80 games.  THAT is a playoff pace.

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

IF the Sabres win tonight, they ARE on that pace.  12- 14 - 12 - 10 - (6 in 5) is right on 96 through 80 games.  THAT is a playoff pace.

Problem is the trend line. 

[Taro T]

Just now, Thorny said:

Problem is the trend line. 

That's where breaking it down into 10 game segments is superior.  The trend is only barely off.

[Thorner]

7 minutes ago, Taro T said:

That's where breaking it down into 10 game segments is superior.  The trend is only barely off.

If 6-13 in last 19 is barely off trend, I don't want to be on it. 

They gained 16 points in those games. That's a 69 point pace in the last 2 10 game segments, pending tonight.

Edited January 13, 2019 by Thorny

[Brawndo]

15 hours ago, Thorny said:

That we've played at an objectively bad, low 70s pace for what is now 77% of the season and counting is unacceptable. If that was the plan, it was a bad plan. If the plan was to take three years to contend for a playoff spot, that's a bad, bad plan.

The plan for every team ito make the playoffs and compete for a Cup,  The reality of this team is they are far away.

When Botterill had his initial interview with the Pegulas one of the first things he told them was Tim Murray did not do you any favors. As AGM of Pens and GM of the SW Pens his job was to know the organizational depth of other teams, so he had good idea of the enormous task at hand with the Sabres Job. 

He is only going to make moves that make sense now and for the future. 

I get it, this whole situation sucks as does cheering for this team at times. 

11 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Yuck. If that's true, Skinner's gone for sure. Who would want to be a part of such a sad-sack organization when so many better options will present themselves?

 Nice try, but all signals are pointing to him wanting to sign an extension here

[Stoner]

2 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Nice try, but all signals are pointing to him wanting to sign an extension here

Such as?

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

The plan for every team ito make the playoffs and compete for a Cup,  The reality of this team is they are far away.

When Botterill had his initial interview with the Pegulas one of the first things he told them was Tim Murray did not do you any favors. As AGM of Pens and GM of the SW Pens his job was to know the organizational depth of other teams, so he had good idea of the enormous task at hand with the Sabres Job. 

He is only going to make moves that make sense now and for the future. 

I get it, this whole situation sucks as does cheering for this team at times. 

 Nice try, but all signals are pointing to him wanting to sign an extension here

Is this a reported fact? Legit askin'.

[Brawndo]

Just now, PASabreFan said:

Such as?

1. He has mentioned he likes the fact his family and friends have been able to attend multiple games this season compared to one or two last year in Raleigh. 

2. He and Botterill have both mentioned how comfortable he feels with the team, something he did not in Carolina. 

3. Darren Dreger mentioned he knows for a fact that Skinner wants to stay in Buffalo 

4. Skinner mentioned in an interview that his contract talks with the Sabres will begin in earnest during the bye week/All Star Break 

5. Botterill mentioned that he wants Skinner to stay and Skinner feels the same way in the Two Man Advantage Podcast from December 

[Sabel79]

Also, to begin with, Skinner agreed to waive his no-trade for exactly three teams.  Toronto, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo.  The first two aren't singing him.  He's going nowhere.  

[Brawndo]

15 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Is this a reported fact? Legit askin'.

Puck Daddy Greg Wyshinski(sp) was on the a local radio show (Shredd and Reagan) at the beginning of last season and this was a topic of discussion.