Skinner Contract Watch

[tom webster]

5 minutes ago, inkman said:

69 sounds ideal to me. Although you can lose focus if you concentrate on giving or receiving too much. 

Losing focus isn’t always bad, sometimes even self gratifying albeit at the expense of the other.

[PerreaultForever]

Skinner has to be paid like a 30 goal scorer cause that's what he is. Any more and it'll bite us down the road. Sounds like he wants way too much and I am sure he'll demand a NTC (or at least one he controls) as well. JBot however is likely under pressure and will be willing to over pay so as not to look like a failure. 

Pasternak, Bergeron and Marchand all make 6.+ million and Skinner wants 9? I know prices are rising, but that's ridiculous. 

[CallawaySabres]

He had ONE great year and is a very good player. Carolina sure did miss him, ugh. This is NOT the player you give 8 years to unless he is willing to go down to 7 million per. Where the hell is the Sabres Robert Foster and why can't our GM find anyone outside the first round? I don't trust Botteril to make the right decision and the next GM is going to DREAD this Skinner contract if gets more than 64 million on the books.

[nfreeman]

28 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I'm at no on resigning him then.

I like the player.  alot. I am not a fan of tough, heavy hockey, I like up and down type hockey, but it doesn't make sense to me for where the Sabres are at.

Sign him for 8 years..it is likey you get 3-4 elite years...2 decent years..and 2 years of regret.  IF the Sabres were at the point now where you were looking at deep playoff runs right now and through those 4 'elite' years..then I'd go for it.  But it is likely at least the first 2 of those years you aren't going to be in that position.  

Right player, Right position, Right money....wrong time for where the Sabres are in their progression.  Last thing I want is for this team to be really good and a top 10 team in the NHL a few years down the road...and at that point THIS being the contract that causes them to need more help and not be able to get it. 

This is all reasonable...but Eichel is now going into his FIFTH season.  If the Sabres are ever going to build a good team around Eichel, he absolutely needs a high-end winger to play his prime years with.  Skinner was fantastic in that role this year until he hurt his ankle.  He just turned 27 a couple of weeks ago.  He's tough, he's fast and he can score in a bunch of different ways -- including playoff-type goals from the dirty areas.  I think he's pretty much a lock to score 35+ per year for at least the next 5 years. 

Will he continue to deliver at the same level until he's 34?  Probably not, but that's part of the price here.

The Sabres need to keep him.  They can't screw around with this and hope that Olofsson or TT or Nylander magically grows into that role.  And they can't afford the psychological blow that losing him would deliver.

[sabills]

7 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Skinner has to be paid like a 30 goal scorer cause that's what he is. Any more and it'll bite us down the road. Sounds like he wants way too much and I am sure he'll demand a NTC (or at least one he controls) as well. JBot however is likely under pressure and will be willing to over pay so as not to look like a failure. 

Pasternak, Bergeron and Marchand all make 6.+ million and Skinner wants 9? I know prices are rising, but that's ridiculous. 

Just for some context:

Pasternak signed 2017 for 6.666 per. Cap was 75 million at the time, up to 83 million now, which is about a 10% increase. Current value would be around 7.3. But when he signed he had only scored 30 goals once in his career, the previous two seasons were 10 and 15 (granted he'd never played a full season those two seasons either), and he was 21. They got great value for him, no doubt, but he was a bit of a gamble.

Marchand also signed in 2017 for 6.125, putting his value today at around 6.8M per. Marchand had scored 30+ the previous 2 years, and was 29 at the time. A little old, but yeeash, that contract was robbery by the Bruins, honestly.

Bergeron signed in 2014 for 6.875. Cap was 69M, increase to today is ~20%, bringing his value today to about 8.25. He had only scored 30 goals twice in his career at that point, seperated by 7 years. He was also 29 when he signed. If anything, I think they OVERpaid for him at the time, but he has certainly paid off since, scoring 30+ in 3 of the next 4 years.

 

[#freejame]

3 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

8x9  is a year and a million more I wanted to, but I won't cry over it.   Stone raised the market value, maybe skinner is less good for defense but he puts more pucks in the net.

I don’t think Stone and Skinner are the same tier of player, so I wouldn’t say he raised Skinners value too much.

3 hours ago, sabills said:

They can't offer him what it would take to get him to sign an offer sheet because they don't have a second this year. The pick has to be your own, and they traded that for...Jeff Skinner.

EDIT: Unless you want to go 10.5+, then we can do our next 4 first rounders. I could actually be talked into that, but I think its too much for Marner.

I have a hard time believing Marner won’t get a 7x$10.5 offer sheet or 8x$10 from TO

2 hours ago, tom webster said:

The other three issues that seem to be continually over looked;

1) they’d have to offer more then Jack is getting.

2) we have to outbid others 

3) they player has to want to come.

The same people worried about 7 and 8 years from now are the ones now crying over O’Reilly. 9 million is the market and 30 goal scores aren’t easy to find.

At this moment, Marner is a better player than Jack so I don’t think it’s too outlandish. Jack still has a higher ceiling and higher floor in my opinion though.

59 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

What if he wants 72? 

That’s a hard pass for me too. 68 is my ceiling. Anything more and Botts should look offer sheet instead. Making an offer on Tkachuk is difficult without the 3rd and I wouldn’t want to give him more than Eichel so that’s pretty difficult. It was talked about before that we could offer Carolina picks for ours back, but who knows how sweet it would have to be for them to help us. I think Marner is going to be in the $10.5 range, but I’m not sure how Jack would take that. 

[dudacek]

Marner is not a better player than Jack.

 

[Hoss]

4 hours ago, Brawndo said:

White’s Source is Sabres are at 66-67 Million, but he thinks 72 Million gets its done. 

 

My favorite is when Jeremy White’s source only talks to him when the real reporters have reported everything and he just repeats it with some unprovable stuff thrown in. 

[#freejame]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Marner is not a better player than Jack.

 

I’m not sure many outside of Buffalo agree with that. I would think most would agree with the second part though.

[#freejame]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Marner is not a better player than Jack.

 

In fact, HFBoard just had this debate with Marner winning 52% and 12.8% saying too close to call

[sabills]

26 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Marner is not a better player than Jack.

 

 

20 minutes ago, #freejame said:

I’m not sure many outside of Buffalo agree with that. I would think most would agree with the second part though.

I think Marner is more on the level with Reinhart, honestly, but I'll just keep that quiet being so close to the border.

 

Different players obviously. Skinner tho:

Edited May 30, 2019 by sabills

[TrueBlueGED]

1 hour ago, Derrico said:

Man it's alot.  It better come with no NTC/NMC.  Even then the last 2-3 years scare me.  I'm more confident he won't fall off a cliff year 2 like Okposo but I'm also not confident in what he's giving me the last couple.

This is key to me. I don't want to pay Skinner $9M per season for 8 years, but ultimately I'm okay with it as long as it doesn't care full trade protection for the life of the deal. 

34 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

This is all reasonable...but Eichel is now going into his FIFTH season.  If the Sabres are ever going to build a good team around Eichel, he absolutely needs a high-end winger to play his prime years with.  Skinner was fantastic in that role this year until he hurt his ankle.  He just turned 27 a couple of weeks ago.  He's tough, he's fast and he can score in a bunch of different ways -- including playoff-type goals from the dirty areas.  I think he's pretty much a lock to score 35+ per year for at least the next 5 years. 

Will he continue to deliver at the same level until he's 34?  Probably not, but that's part of the price here.

The Sabres need to keep him.  They can't screw around with this and hope that Olofsson or TT or Nylander magically grows into that role.  And they can't afford the psychological blow that losing him would deliver.

I agree with your post, but this little bit seems bordering on wildly optimistic to me. I think he's a lock for 30 as long as he's on Jack's wing, but I'm not banking on 35+ for five straight years out of a player who has done it twice in 9 seasons.

32 minutes ago, sabills said:

Just for some context:

Pasternak signed 2017 for 6.666 per. Cap was 75 million at the time, up to 83 million now, which is about a 10% increase. Current value would be around 7.3. But when he signed he had only scored 30 goals once in his career, the previous two seasons were 10 and 15 (granted he'd never played a full season those two seasons either), and he was 21. They got great value for him, no doubt, but he was a bit of a gamble.

Marchand also signed in 2017 for 6.125, putting his value today at around 6.8M per. Marchand had scored 30+ the previous 2 years, and was 29 at the time. A little old, but yeeash, that contract was robbery by the Bruins, honestly.

Bergeron signed in 2014 for 6.875. Cap was 69M, increase to today is ~20%, bringing his value today to about 8.25. He had only scored 30 goals twice in his career at that point, seperated by 7 years. He was also 29 when he signed. If anything, I think they OVERpaid for him at the time, but he has certainly paid off since, scoring 30+ in 3 of the next 4 years.

 

Sir. SIR! Patrice Bergeron's value is not accurately measured by goals.

16 minutes ago, #freejame said:

I’m not sure many outside of Buffalo agree with that. I would think most would agree with the second part though.

I think Marner is fantastic, but c'mon man. His first two seasons in the league he was a statistical twin of William Nylander. He didn't reach Jack's offensive stratosphere until he got paired with John freakin' Tavares.

[dudacek]

Im going to chock that up to the numbers being skewed by three factors:

the size of the Leafs fanbase and the exposure the franchise gets across Canada

the perception of the state of the Sabres and the inference that Jack is somehow heavily responsible (same for Marner and the Leafs)

the idea that Marner’s 12 more points in five more games is some kind of measuring stick.

 

I think Marner is a helluva player, but he just doesnt offer everything that Jack does. f you held a secret ballot of NHL GMs I would be shocked if less than 25 of them would rather have Jack.

 

15 minutes ago, #freejame said:

In fact, HFBoard just had this debate with Marner winning 52% and 12.8% saying too close to call

 

Edited May 30, 2019 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, CallawaySabres said:

He had ONE great year and is a very good player. Carolina sure did miss him, ugh. This is NOT the player you give 8 years to unless he is willing to go down to 7 million per. Where the hell is the Sabres Robert Foster and why can't our GM find anyone outside the first round? I don't trust Botteril to make the right decision and the next GM is going to DREAD this Skinner contract if gets more than 64 million on the books.

This is not football. 

Also there's a growing list of players with that impact potential from rounds 2-7. I've already listed them enough times. 

23 minutes ago, #freejame said:

In fact, HFBoard just had this debate with Marner winning 52% and 12.8% saying too close to call

It's called recency bias. 

[LGR4GM]

51 minutes ago, sabills said:

Just for some context:

Pasternak signed 2017 for 6.666 per. Cap was 75 million at the time, up to 83 million now, which is about a 10% increase. Current value would be around 7.3. But when he signed he had only scored 30 goals once in his career, the previous two seasons were 10 and 15 (granted he'd never played a full season those two seasons either), and he was 21. They got great value for him, no doubt, but he was a bit of a gamble.

Marchand also signed in 2017 for 6.125, putting his value today at around 6.8M per. Marchand had scored 30+ the previous 2 years, and was 29 at the time. A little old, but yeeash, that contract was robbery by the Bruins, honestly.

Bergeron signed in 2014 for 6.875. Cap was 69M, increase to today is ~20%, bringing his value today to about 8.25. He had only scored 30 goals twice in his career at that point, seperated by 7 years. He was also 29 when he signed. If anything, I think they OVERpaid for him at the time, but he has certainly paid off since, scoring 30+ in 3 of the next 4 years.

 

Exactly

[tom webster]

This new notion that every other team finds superstars in rounds 2-7 is laughable. 

First, the numbers show the Sabre’s do quite well in that regard.

Secondly, they have a couple of guys already on or breaking into the roster and as LGRM has pointed out a few times, more on the horizon.

You will all be surprised how much better third and fourth liners look when you actually have two top lines and quality defenseman.

[#freejame]

I’m standing by what I said. Still think Eichel will end up better but Marner has been a better hockey player so far.

Marner: 

77/19/42/61 65.5% even strength points (15 goals) 2.7 pts/60 

82/22/47/69 60.8% ev (14 goals) 3.0 pts/60

82/26/68/95 74.4% ev (22 goals) 3.7 pts/60

Corsi%: 55.9, 58.7, 55.8

 

Eichel:

81/24/32/56 62.5% even strength points (16 goals) 2.2 pts/60

61/24/33/57 57.9% ev (14 goals) 2.8 pts/60

67/25/39/64 62.6% ev (22 goals) 2.8 pts/60

77/28/54/82 68.3% ev (20 goals) 3.1 pts/60

Corsi%: 53.9, 54.1, 56.9, 57.0

 

Eichel gets far more ice and plays the power play. Marner has gotten little power play through his career and kills penalties. 

[freester]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

This is all reasonable...but Eichel is now going into his FIFTH season.  If the Sabres are ever going to build a good team around Eichel, he absolutely needs a high-end winger to play his prime years with.  Skinner was fantastic in that role this year until he hurt his ankle.  He just turned 27 a couple of weeks ago.  He's tough, he's fast and he can score in a bunch of different ways -- including playoff-type goals from the dirty areas.  I think he's pretty much a lock to score 35+ per year for at least the next 5 years. 

Will he continue to deliver at the same level until he's 34?  Probably not, but that's part of the price here.

The Sabres need to keep him.  They can't screw around with this and hope that Olofsson or TT or Nylander magically grows into that role.  And they can't afford the psychological blow that losing him would deliver.

Dude you’re delusional if you think he’s going to score 35 goals for the next 5 years.  He’s done it twice in 9 years.  I don’t think he’s physical enough for playoff hockey and he’s a defensive liability.  Now I don’t want to lose him because we have little talent otherwise but Botteril is desperate and is going to overpay. In a few years time we will look at Botteril as among the worst GM in Sabres history. 

[Thorner]

18 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

I’m still wth this $8 million is what he should get based on performance, $9 million what he could get based on silly season.

If they each want each other - and it seems they do - $8.5 makes too much sense not to happen.

If this is the deal, they better extend Sam this summer, or they will be paying him buckets next summer after he outscores Jeff by 20 points.

No chance Sam even thinks about approaching the negotiation table this summer unless Botterill pays him what he plans to ask for next year after scoring another 60-70 points. That bridge contract from Botterill to Sam is looking like an underestimated fail, and it reminds me a little of Dubas waiting to sign Marner until last. 

---

$9 mil to Skinner is definitely "too much", both in terms of what I think he should be paid, and in terms of the fact that, to match that 72 mil over 7 years in UFA, he'd need $10.3 on the open market and he'd probably struggle to get more than 8. 

But this is the position the Sabres are in, they have no leverage, they have no goal scoring, they need to get him signed. The cap is still going to go up and the Sabres aren't in cap trouble, so I can live with 9. We have to spend that ROR money somewhere. 

We need his goals and he's going to keep scoring them. I don't like that we'll be paying a 63-point Skinner 9 mil when Blake Wheeler for example just signed for 8.25 after a 91 point season, but his deal does take him to age 38 and Skinner's only till 35, so that's a plus. 

Edited May 30, 2019 by Thorny

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, #freejame said:

In fact, HFBoard just had this debate with Marner winning 52% and 12.8% saying too close to call

With the Toronto/Canadian player bias, Jack scoring even that high tells me that if you remove the bias he's better. 

[Broken Ankles]

50 minutes ago, tom webster said:

This new notion that every other team finds superstars in rounds 2-7 is laughable. 

First, the numbers show the Sabre’s do quite well in that regard.

 Secondly, they have a couple of guys already on or breaking into the roster and as LGRM has pointed out a few times, more on the horizon.

You will all be surprised how much better third and fourth liners look when you actually have two top lines and quality defenseman.

 

Actually the data shows they do NOT do well in that regard.   These two summaries are of Sabres Draft selections in the last 9 years.   Overall (my data includes round #1) the Sabres draft more frequently, with a much higher average selection in each round (average #), and yet they are middle of the pack in Games played and points.

If you look only at rounds 4-7 Buffalo is league worst in points and second worst in Games played (Ulmark affecting this positively - otherwise they would be 30th). 

I'm not going to comment on the performance of JB's sections thus far.  The early reports look promising.  But this definitely suggests that Darcy's last few drafts and TM's three are less than desirable. 

[tom webster]

12 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

 

Actually the data shows they do NOT do well in that regard.   These two summaries are of Sabres Draft selections in the last 9 years.   Overall (my data includes round #1) the Sabres draft more frequently, with a much higher average selection in each round (average #), and yet they are middle of the pack in Games played and points.

If you look only at rounds 4-7 Buffalo is league worst in points and second worst in Games played (Ulmark affecting this positively - otherwise they would be 30th). 

I'm not going to comment on the performance of JB's sections thus far.  The early reports look promising.  But this definitely suggests that Darcy's last few drafts and TM's three are less than desirable. 

Interesting that you chose the last 9 years. You know this is all cyclical and a large amount of luck after the first two rounds. One or two players hit and you catapult up the charts.

I will look closer when I get home but I think I can make your charts tell my story. It’s interesting what you can do with numbers,

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, #freejame said:

I have a hard time believing Marner won’t get a 7x$10.5 offer sheet or 8x$10 from TO

At this moment, Marner is a better player than Jack so I don’t think it’s too outlandish. Jack still has a higher ceiling and higher floor in my opinion though.

That’s a hard pass for me too. 68 is my ceiling. Anything more and Botts should look offer sheet instead. Making an offer on Tkachuk is difficult without the 3rd and I wouldn’t want to give him more than Eichel so that’s pretty difficult. It was talked about before that we could offer Carolina picks for ours back, but who knows how sweet it would have to be for them to help us. I think Marner is going to be in the $10.5 range, but I’m not sure how Jack would take that. 

I don't think offer sheets are a realistic fallback since they essentially never happen.

 

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Marner is not a better player than Jack.

 

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Im going to chock that up to the numbers being skewed by three factors:

the size of the Leafs fanbase and the exposure the franchise gets across Canada

the perception of the state of the Sabres and the inference that Jack is somehow heavily responsible (same for Marner and the Leafs)

the idea that Marner’s 12 more points in five more games is some kind of measuring stick.

I think Marner is a helluva player, but he just doesnt offer everything that Jack does. f you held a secret ballot of NHL GMs I would be shocked if less than 25 of them would rather have Jack.

 

...he said bravely.

I think it's pretty GD close, myself, and I certainly can't fault anyone who prefers Marner.

 

2 hours ago, sabills said:

 

I think Marner is more on the level with Reinhart, honestly, but I'll just keep that quiet being so close to the border.

 

Now this is nuts.  Reino isn't half the player that Marner is.

 

1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

I agree with your post, but this little bit seems bordering on wildly optimistic to me. I think he's a lock for 30 as long as he's on Jack's wing, but I'm not banking on 35+ for five straight years out of a player who has done it twice in 9 seasons.

This is fair, but this year was the first time he was paired with someone like Eichel, and he was on pace to get 50+ until he hurt his ankle.

 

30 minutes ago, Thorny said:

No chance Sam even thinks about approaching the negotiation table this summer unless Botterill pays him what he plans to ask for next year after scoring another 60-70 points. That bridge contract from Botterill to Sam is looking like an underestimated fail, and it reminds me a little of Dubas waiting to sign Marner until last. 

 

You may be right about Reino's inclination to sign a deal this year, but IMHO he hasn't earned a fat contract yet.  He had another season with one good half and one crappy half, and was again out to lunch when the season was lost.  That's not a guy you make a huge commitment to.

 

[Thorner]

9 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I don't think offer sheets are a realistic fallback since they essentially never happen.

 

...he said bravely.

I think it's pretty GD close, myself, and I certainly can't fault anyone who prefers Marner.

 

Now this is nuts.  Reino isn't half the player that Marner is.

 

This is fair, but this year was the first time he was paired with someone like Eichel, and he was on pace to get 50+ until he hurt his ankle.

 

You may be right about Reino's inclination to sign a deal this year, but IMHO he hasn't earned a fat contract yet.  He had another season with one good half and one crappy half, and was again out to lunch when the season was lost.  That's not a guy you make a huge commitment to.

 

It's not that he's earned a "fat" contract. It's that he's going to get way more next summer than he would have had Botterill extended him last. 

It's the perils of a bridge contract. Botterill wanted to mitigate the risk by waiting. It might fall into the "good problem to have" category, but there's no doubt the price of that mitigation is a higher AAV than we could have had him at.

Edited May 30, 2019 by Thorny

[North Buffalo]

F5 any word on Skinner and coach meetup?