Skinner Contract Watch

[CallawaySabres]

No way am I paying 8 years at 9 million....walk away. Paying him 9 million at age 35 will be a disaster waiting to happen.

[Zamboni]

8 x 8 heavily front loaded with signing bonuses. 

OR

4 x 9

both with no NTC or NMC

Edited May 30, 2019 by Zamboni

[sabills]

At a certain point you've got to shoot your shot. Skinner is the best goal scorer this team has had in at least 10 years. The term is scary, don't get me wrong, but you don't get better by letting good players walk.

[Zamboni]

 If Skinner walks, turn around and offer sheet Marner

[Huckleberry]

33 minutes ago, CallawaySabres said:

No way am I paying 8 years at 9 million....walk away. Paying him 9 million at age 35 will be a disaster waiting to happen.

8x9  is a year and a million more I wanted to, but I won't cry over it.   Stone raised the market value, maybe skinner is less good for defense but he puts more pucks in the net.

[sabills]

3 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

 If Skinner walks, turn around and offer sheet Marner

They can't offer him what it would take to get him to sign an offer sheet because they don't have a second this year. The pick has to be your own, and they traded that for...Jeff Skinner.

EDIT: Unless you want to go 10.5+, then we can do our next 4 first rounders. I could actually be talked into that, but I think its too much for Marner.

Edited May 30, 2019 by sabills

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, sabills said:

They can't offer him what it would take to get him to sign an offer sheet because they don't have a second this year. The pick has to be your own, and they traded that for...Jeff Skinner.

EDIT: Unless you want to go 10.5+, then we can do our next 4 first rounders. I could actually be talked into that, but I think its too much for Marner.

Actually I was just thinking about this and they can offer sheet him. Marner won't be talking to other teams until the 26th and can't get offer sheeted until the july 1st. The Draft is June 21-22. It isn't our 2019 picks but our 2020 picks that would go in the offer sheet. 

The real issue is that we do not own our 2020 3rd round pick because we traded that to Carolina. 

[Derrico]

1 hour ago, Zamboni said:

8 x 8 heavily front loaded with signing bonuses. 

OR

4 x 9

both with no NTC or NMC

I would even go 4 years at $10 per.  Much rather that than 8 x 8.5.

[tom webster]

27 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Actually I was just thinking about this and they can offer sheet him. Marner won't be talking to other teams until the 26th and can't get offer sheeted until the july 1st. The Draft is June 21-22. It isn't our 2019 picks but our 2020 picks that would go in the offer sheet. 

The real issue is that we do not own our 2020 3rd round pick because we traded that to Carolina. 

The other three issues that seem to be continually over looked;

1) they’d have to offer more then Jack is getting.

2) we have to outbid others 

3) they player has to want to come.

The same people worried about 7 and 8 years from now are the ones now crying over O’Reilly. 9 million is the market and 30 goal scores aren’t easy to find.

[LGR4GM]

17 minutes ago, Derrico said:

I would even go 4 years at $10 per.  Much rather that than 8 x 8.5.

4x10= 40mil

8x8.5 = 68mil

Hockey is dangerous and your next contract could be nothing if you get injured. Hard for a player to leave 28mil or more on the table even for a short term windfall. His contract after those 4 years would have to be 7mil for 4 years to make up that difference and that seems questionable. 

[nfreeman]

Once more, with feeling:  if you're saying "I don't want the Sabres to give Skinner an 8-year deal," what you're really saying is "I don't want the Sabres to re-sign Skinner."  He's not signing here unless he gets the 8th year.

[Derrico]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

4x10= 40mil

8x8.5 = 68mil

Hockey is dangerous and your next contract could be nothing if you get injured. Hard for a player to leave 28mil or more on the table even for a short term windfall. His contract after those 4 years would have to be 7mil for 4 years to make up that difference and that seems questionable. 

Oh for sure.  That's why I don't think there's any way I love the look of this deal having it 8 years.  If there's a good shot he's not worth it as a $7 mil player the last 4 years of the deal (which I agree with) then he will quickly turn into an Okposo contract for 3 or 4 years.  If he's not worth $7 and we're paying him a cap hit of $8.5 or $9 then that's where teams can get into big trouble (as we've all seen here).

6 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Once more, with feeling:  if you're saying "I don't want the Sabres to give Skinner an 8-year deal," what you're really saying is "I don't want the Sabres to re-sign Skinner."  He's not signing here unless he gets the 8th year.

Then so be it.  I wouldn't go over 8 if you're talking 8 years.

Should add that I'm fully aware 8 x 8 won't get it done but to me it's fair.  I think it's a decent team price for the next couple of years, fair for both through the middle and there's a bit of a decline relative to cap hit later in the deal.  Use some Pegula bucks to front load and pay in bonuses or whatever maximizes Skinners return.

Edited May 30, 2019 by Derrico

[Zamboni]

1 minute ago, nfreeman said:

Once more, with feeling:  if you're saying "I don't want the Sabres to give Skinner an 8-year deal," what you're really saying is "I don't want the Sabres to re-sign Skinner."  He's not signing here unless he gets the 8th year.

I agree.

on the other hand, IF IF IF he agreed to just a four year deal, he could really cash in with a 4 x 9.5/10 type of payday. 

Then at age 31 (barely), he gets another four year deal, probably in the neighborhood of 6 mil. per. 

So for 8 years he will have made roughly 64 mil.

[Derrico]

23 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

I agree.

on the other hand, IF IF IF he agreed to just a four year deal, he could really cash in with a 4 x 9.5/10 type of payday. 

Then at age 31 (barely), he gets another four year deal, probably in the neighborhood of 6 mil. per. 

So for 8 years he will have made roughly 64 mil.

Completely agree with this.  Thats why 8 x 8 makes sense to me.  You get to that 64.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Derrico said:

Completely agree with this.  Thats why 8 x 8 makes sense to me.  You get to that 64.

What if he wants 72? 

[Derrico]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

What if he wants 72? 

Man it's alot.  It better come with no NTC/NMC.  Even then the last 2-3 years scare me.  I'm more confident he won't fall off a cliff year 2 like Okposo but I'm also not confident in what he's giving me the last couple.

[LGR4GM]

It's just paying him more now because the magic number and he can still get there seems off to me. If he thinks the number is 72, how does that math work out. You give him 40mil over 4 years he still needs a 32mill 4 year deal after that. I just don't believe a short higher contract works because Skinner is looking for the overall not the short term. 

[Derrico]

I will say he's damn good when he's on and he's a great fit to play with Jack.

However, I wonder, based on his size, how he performs when the going gets tough.  He went on that big scoring drought late in the season when teams tightened up and frankly the Sabres needed him most.  He's not a perfect player.  He's very nice but I don't want to overpay for very nice to be honest.  I wish I knew how good he would be in the playoffs but he has never made it.  I donno.  Again, I really like him but there are a couple of red flags and I'm just not willing to overpay for him.  

 

Edited May 30, 2019 by Derrico

[Derrico]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

It's just paying him more now because the magic number and he can still get there seems off to me. If he thinks the number is 72, how does that math work out. You give him 40mil over 4 years he still needs a 32mill 4 year deal after that. I just don't believe a short higher contract works because Skinner is looking for the overall not the short term. 

I agree with you.  But because Skinner wouldnt' do it shows a bit that it's not necessarily in Buffalo's best interest to get to his number either. 

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Derrico said:

I agree with you.  But because Skinner wouldnt' do it shows a bit that it's not necessarily in Buffalo's best interest to get to his number either. 

What if his number is 76mil? And the 72 is a compromise? I just do not believe that he will sign a shorter term deal because he loses out on so much money. 

[Derrico]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

What if his number is 76mil? And the 72 is a compromise? I just do not believe that he will sign a shorter term deal because he loses out on so much money. 

No chance I'm going near 76.  I honestly don't know if I'm getting to 72.  

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Derrico said:

No chance I'm going near 76.  I honestly don't know if I'm getting to 72.  

Is 68 your max?

[mjd1001]

52 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Once more, with feeling:  if you're saying "I don't want the Sabres to give Skinner an 8-year deal," what you're really saying is "I don't want the Sabres to re-sign Skinner."  He's not signing here unless he gets the 8th year.

I'm at no on resigning him then.

I like the player.  alot. I am not a fan of tough, heavy hockey, I like up and down type hockey, but it doesn't make sense to me for where the Sabres are at.

Sign him for 8 years..it is likey you get 3-4 elite years...2 decent years..and 2 years of regret.  IF the Sabres were at the point now where you were looking at deep playoff runs right now and through those 4 'elite' years..then I'd go for it.  But it is likely at least the first 2 of those years you aren't going to be in that position. 

Right player, Right position, Right money....wrong time for where the Sabres are in their progression.  Last thing I want is for this team to be really good and a top 10 team in the NHL a few years down the road...and at that point THIS being the contract that causes them to need more help and not be able to get it.

[inkman]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Is 68 your max?

69 sounds ideal to me. Although you can lose focus if you concentrate on giving or receiving too much. 

[LGR4GM]

lol i get it