Housley and Roster Optimization

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, Samson's Flow said:

Which explains why he has left the highest scoring 1st line we've had in years untouched since game #20...

 

oh wait.

I don't honestly care about it being the highest scoring line. I care about wins. There was evidence about 10 games ago that we should take a least 1 player from that line to help get more lines going. 

[Samson's Flow]

47 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't honestly care about it being the highest scoring line. I care about wins. There was evidence about 10 games ago that we should take a least 1 player from that line to help get more lines going. 

I'm just trying to call out that your first post asked for Housley to not break what isn't broken, and then calling for breaking up the only line that is working. 

That doesn't sound consistent to me.

 

EDIT - nevermind I see that first post was from @pi2000 and not you LGR. Carry on.

Edited January 8, 2019 by Samson's Flow

[nfreeman]

I'm not opposed at this point to reshuffling the lines, including the top line, because the status quo clearly isn't working well enough to win consistently.

However, on a somewhat related point, while I like the fact that Stimson does deep analytical dives on the Sabres, I don't think his articles are well written.  In particular, I don't think he explains well enough the analytic stats he relies up.  Today's article seemed, IMHO, to say, in effect, "the analytics show that the lines should be reshuffled as follows" without explaining the analytics themselves -- not to mention the theoretical strengths and weaknesses of the stats he uses.

[Doohicksie]

5 hours ago, Carmel Corn said:

I would like to see a prolonged experiment with Mittelstadt, Sheary and TT together.

Me too, except I'm not locked to Sheary.  I wouldn't mind seeing Larsson on Mittelstadt's LW.

[Taro T]

32 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Me too, except I'm not locked to Sheary.  I wouldn't mind seeing Larsson on Mittelstadt's LW.

Larsson ALWAYS plays lousy on the wing.  The only C on this team that has less reason to move to W would be Eichel.

If you & Housley would like to see Larsson & Mittelstadt together, Casey would be the one that should slide.

[Doohicksie]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

Scandella has backslid this year but I’m not sure why it’s his fault when Rasmus coughs up the puck.

Bogo seems to be aware enough of the kid's tendencies that he's more likely to be there if Dahlin fouls up.  Yes Dahlin still did it, but it seemed like even if a turnover resulted, there was just enough backpressure from Bogo that opponent scoring chances didn't go in.  I dunno, maybe Bogo is better at putting the puck where Dahlin can more easily catch it, too.

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Dahlin and Scandella together is bad because Dahlin can't make ANY mistakes because Scandella can't cover.

That's another way to put it, yeah.

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

Larsson ALWAYS plays lousy on the wing.  The only C on this team that has less reason to move to W would be Eichel.

If you & Housley would like to see Larsson & Mittelstadt together, Casey would be the one that should slide.

I won't argue with that.

[Doohicksie]

5 hours ago, ... said:

Wasn't Mitts given the opportunity to center Samson and Skinner the other day?

I think in the normal line changes, they tend to change one guy, then two (or vice versa) and Mitts ended up out there with them during the interlude of the change.  I don't think he was getting full shifts with them.

[Doohicksie]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

Maybe a solution is Jack with two of Okposo Sheary, Thompson, Smith or Rodrigues for a while?

I think Thompson playing with top talent could be huge.  He's starting to look good, even driving the line, with lesser linemates.  Give him some talent to work with and he might become the finisher the team needs.

[TrueBlueGED]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

I'm not opposed at this point to reshuffling the lines, including the top line, because the status quo clearly isn't working well enough to win consistently.

However, on a somewhat related point, while I like the fact that Stimson does deep analytical dives on the Sabres, I don't think his articles are well written.  In particular, I don't think he explains well enough the analytic stats he relies up.  Today's article seemed, IMHO, to say, in effect, "the analytics show that the lines should be reshuffled as follows" without explaining the analytics themselves -- not to mention the theoretical strengths and weaknesses of the stats he uses.

Serious question: how often should Stimson have to do this? I don't think it's reasonable to expect a writer to explain the stats every time they get used in an article. Maybe links to the articles elsewhere that created the metrics? 

Things like xG and WAR aren't exactly new anymore, either. Should writers like Harrington similarly have to explain the strengths/weaknesses of +/- every time it's used? 

[Taro T]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Yea, it's almost like Sheary - Mitts - KO are bad together... There is an issue with Housley's lineup choices. 

Dahlin and Scandella together is bad because Dahlin can't make ANY mistakes because Scandella can't cover. They should be split up. Either give Dahlin Pilut or McCabe. If not put him back with Bogo. 

While I agree that Dahlin & Scandella as a pair are decidedly not ideal, there aren't really many other options available that keep Scandella in the lineup.  (And we all know, Scandella isn't coming out of the lineup.)

To pair Dahlin up with McCabe, McCabe-Ristolainen have to be broken up (which IMHO would be a mistake) and Risto now has either Scandella as a partner (does ANYBODY REALLY want Marco getting top pairing matchups &/or ice time?) or Pilut or Beaulieu get forced 1st pairing duty (which also isn't ideal at present).  

To give Dahlin the shelter of Bogosian, which has been a good pairing, then TINY Pilut loses his body guard.  Can't recall which Duck it was, but one of the bigger ones was roughing Larry up in front of the Sabres net; Bogo saw it & started roughing up the Duck.  Pilut needs to be on that pairing more than Dahlin does at this moment IMHO.

Which leaves pairing Dahlin with one of the Scandanavians or Beaulieu.  Can't say I want to see that either.

IF playing with Scandella were hurting Dahlin's development, that would be 1 thing; but there is no readily apparent evidence it is.  And as mentioned to you earlier in another thread you were decrying Dahlin not having a full time partner; be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.  (Aka, sure looks like Housley found his choice for Dahlin's partner. ;))

Edited January 8, 2019 by Taro T

[TrueBlueGED]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

Or is it bad because Scandella has to worry too much about covering for Dahlin? Not a fan of Scandella Dahlin. Less of a fan for making excuses for the kid. If other people have to cover him he shouldn’t be in the top 4.

3rd period vs Boston. worth a longer look, IMO but not until Jack comes back.

I know you tend to like protecting the vets, but this isn't your best effort. Players make mistakes, rookies and vets alike. Yes, even top-4 defenseman. Ostensibly, being stout defensively is the primary reason to ice Scandella at all. He certainly doesn't offer any utility offensively. His sole job shouldn't be covering for Dahlin, of course, but it's not like Dahlin is out there treating the puck as a hand grenade. It's not unreasonable to expect the "safe, steady vet who can play tough minutes" to be able to cover for the kid. 

[Thorner]

7 minutes ago, Taro T said:

While I agree that Dahlin & Scandella as a pair are decidedly not ideal, there aren't really many other options available that keep Scandella in the lineup.  (And we all know, Scandella isn't coming out of the lineup.)

To pair Dahlin up with McCabe, McCabe-Ristolainen have to be broken up (which IMHO would be a mistake) and Risto now has either Scandella as a partner (does ANYBODY REALLY want Marco getting top pairing matchups &/or ice time?) or Pilut or Beaulieu get forced 1st pairing duty (which also isn't ideal at present).  

To give Dahlin the shelter of Bogosian, which has been a good pairing, then TINY Pilut loses his body guard.  Can't recall which Duck it was, but one of the bigger ones was roughing Larry up in front of the Sabres net; Bogo saw it & started roughing up the Duck.  Pilut needs to be on that pairing more than Dahlin does at this moment IMHO.

Which leaves pairing Dahlin with one of the Scandanavians or Beaulieu.  Can't say I want to see that either.

IF playing with Scandella were hurting Dahlin's development, that would be 1 thing; but there is no readily apparent evidence it is.  And as mentioned to you earlier in another thread you were decrying Dahlin not having a full time partner; be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.  (Aka, sure looks like Housley found his choice for Dahlin's partner. ;))

While true, circumstantially Dahlin has been in a bit of a slump. In his last 8 games he has 1 point and is a minus-5. I believe he's been with Marco for that time.

[TrueBlueGED]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

While true, circumstantially Dahlin has been in a bit of a slump. In his last 8 games he has 1 point and is a minus-5. I believe he's been with Marco for that time.

Scandella is the new Gorges: he's the pairing offense goes to die. 

[Thorner]

25 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Scandella is the new Gorges: he's the pairing offense goes to die. 

I couldn't decide whether to laugh or cry at this so I just liked it. 

[Taro T]

39 minutes ago, Thorny said:

While true, circumstantially Dahlin has been in a bit of a slump. In his last 8 games he has 1 point and is a minus-5. I believe he's been with Marco for that time.

But in those 8 games, he played 4 on the left side of Bogosian (2x), McCabe (2x), and only the last 4 on Scandella's right.

[Thorner]

6 minutes ago, Taro T said:

But in those 8 games, he played 4 on the left side of Bogosian (2x), McCabe (2x), and only the last 4 on Scandella's right.

Good stuff. Do you know who he was paired with for the Anaheim game? That was his lone "plus" game in that stretch and he scored a goal. 

[nfreeman]

39 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Serious question: how often should Stimson have to do this? I don't think it's reasonable to expect a writer to explain the stats every time they get used in an article. Maybe links to the articles elsewhere that created the metrics? 

Things like xG and WAR aren't exactly new anymore, either. Should writers like Harrington similarly have to explain the strengths/weaknesses of +/- every time it's used? 

Fair point.  I'd say that Stimson's articles should pretty much always include a sentence (or a clause) for each stat that summarizes the general meaning of the stat (e.g. "Corsi For %, which for each player is the percentage of shots and attempted shots by that player's team relative to total shots and attempted shots (including by the opponents) while that player is on the ice..."). 

I agree that a deeper dive into strengths and weaknesses of the stat in each article is unnecessary, although I think it should appear the first time, with a link in subsequent articles.

 

36 minutes ago, Taro T said:

While I agree that Dahlin & Scandella as a pair are decidedly not ideal, there aren't really many other options available that keep Scandella in the lineup.  (And we all know, Scandella isn't coming out of the lineup.)

To pair Dahlin up with McCabe, McCabe-Ristolainen have to be broken up (which IMHO would be a mistake) and Risto now has either Scandella as a partner (does ANYBODY REALLY want Marco getting top pairing matchups &/or ice time?) or Pilut or Beaulieu get forced 1st pairing duty (which also isn't ideal at present).  

To give Dahlin the shelter of Bogosian, which has been a good pairing, then TINY Pilut loses his body guard.  Can't recall which Duck it was, but one of the bigger ones was roughing Larry up in front of the Sabres net; Bogo saw it & started roughing up the Duck.  Pilut needs to be on that pairing more than Dahlin does at this moment IMHO. 

Which leaves pairing Dahlin with one of the Scandanavians or Beaulieu.  Can't say I want to see that either.

IF playing with Scandella were hurting Dahlin's development, that would be 1 thing; but there is no readily apparent evidence it is.  And as mentioned to you earlier in another thread you were decrying Dahlin not having a full time partner; be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.  (Aka, sure looks like Housley found his choice for Dahlin's partner. ;))

I like:

Risto-Pilut

Bogo-Dahlin

Scandy-Beaulieu/Nelson -- with this pair getting the fewest and most sheltered minutes.

[Taro T]

11 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Good stuff. Do you know who he was paired with for the Anaheim game? That was his lone "plus" game in that stretch and he scored a goal. 

That was his 1st game back with McCabe.  And he was on the left side of that pairing.

8 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Fair point.  I'd say that Stimson's articles should pretty much always include a sentence (or a clause) for each stat that summarizes the general meaning of the stat (e.g. "Corsi For %, which for each player is the percentage of shots and attempted shots by that player's team relative to total shots and attempted shots (including by the opponents) while that player is on the ice..."). 

I agree that a deeper dive into strengths and weaknesses of the stat in each article is unnecessary, although I think it should appear the first time, with a link in subsequent articles.

 

I like:

Risto-Pilut

Bogo-Dahlin

Scandy-Beaulieu/Nelson -- with this pair getting the fewest and most sheltered minutes.

Are you trading McCabe as part of a package for a 2C or healthy scratching him? 

(Or was it an innocent overlook?  Yes, we know that's what it was; but where's the fun in that?)

[...]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

Bogo seems to be aware enough of the kid's tendencies that he's more likely to be there if Dahlin fouls up.  Yes Dahlin still did it, but it seemed like even if a turnover resulted, there was just enough backpressure from Bogo that opponent scoring chances didn't go in.  I dunno, maybe Bogo is better at putting the puck where Dahlin can more easily catch it, too.

That's what you call chemistry.

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, Taro T said:

That was his 1st game back with McCabe.  And he was on the left side of that pairing.

Are you trading McCabe as part of a package for a 2C or healthy scratching him? 

(Or was it an innocent overlook?  Yes, we know that's what it was; but where's the fun in that?)

Thanks, that's interesting. I'm definitely more tied to wanting Dahlin on the left than I am to him being paired specifically with Bogo. 

[pi2000]

They should try Dahlin at C.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Scandella is the new Gorges: he's the pairing offense goes to die. 

Sobotka... sorry. Heard offense going to die. 

[TrueBlueGED]

19 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Sobotka... sorry. Heard offense going to die. 

We need a forward comparable for Sobotka. Ellis?

[WildCard]

2 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

We need a forward comparable for Sobotka. Ellis?

Torrey Mitchell?

[Taro T]

10 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

We need a forward comparable for Sobotka. Ellis?

Niedermayer?