Jbot Do Something Already - 4 Saving the Playoffs Edition

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

10 hours ago, Taro T said:

JFC, I am not busting on Mittelstadt.  He WILL almost definitely be a 2C in 2 years.  But right now, he's a 20 yo kid that was playing HS hockey 2 years ago & 2nd line college minutes most of last year.  It is NOT a knock on him to say he isn't ready for 2C duty.  He SHOULD be centering a 3rd offensive line or a true 4th line.  Yeah, he scored a goal on his 1st shift in Edmonton back on the 2nd line.  He then did jack squat after that.  Let him develop against easier competition.  Getting a 2C brought in would allow him to do that.  He'd done squat for about a month before getting "demoted."  By his 2nd game centering Pominville & x, he was playing hockey again.

Playing tougher minutes that he's ready for is not doing his development any favors.

Let Casey play easy minutes this season & however long next season he needs to.  Get him from strong to "man strong" this off season & see where he's ready to go next year.  

But bring that ST 2C in now & get into the playoffs.

Never said you were, so chill. It has been in my posts and thoughts about the fact that it may only be partly Casey and partly the wings he has. Sheary and KO/ TT are not the best to play with a C you're trying to develop in his 1st season.

Where I said "to pin it on Casey" was not meant against you, but as a general statement to public sentiment. I also agree with you on most everything else. I've repeatedly said that I'm not against bringing in a 2C depending on who and at what cost. But I think it's a pipe dream to think just a 2C will get us to the playoffs, too many issues that need cleaning up. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

One would hope that Jbot would get something done (if he intends to) during this 10 day break.  The Sabres are hanging on to 9th.  They are now 4 points out of 8th (Pitt) and 5 out of 7th (Mon), but we are only 2 points ahead of 10th Carolina.  We have 2 games in hand on Montreal, but that won't be enough to catch them and both Buf and Pitt have played 48 games.

We are going to need a 5-6 game winning streak just to get back into this thing.

[Scottysabres]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

One would hope that Jbot would get something done (if he intends to) during this 10 day break.  The Sabres are hanging on to 9th.  They are now 4 points out of 8th (Pitt) and 5 out of 7th (Mon), but we are only 2 points ahead of 10th Carolina.  We have 2 games in hand on Montreal, but that won't be enough to catch them and both Buf and Pitt have played 48 games.

We are going to need a 5-6 game winning streak just to get back into this thing.

10 game, we are going to need a 10 game winning streak, and it must start immediately upon return from the ASB.

[Thorner]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

One would hope that Jbot would get something done (if he intends to) during this 10 day break.  The Sabres are hanging on to 9th.  They are now 4 points out of 8th (Pitt) and 5 out of 7th (Mon), but we are only 2 points ahead of 10th Carolina.  We have 2 games in hand on Montreal, but that won't be enough to catch them and both Buf and Pitt have played 48 games.

We are going to need a 5-6 game winning streak just to get back into this thing.

Well, as it stands right now, potentially something as short as a 3 game winning streak could get us right back into a playoff spot. First 2 wins would be our games in hand on the Habs, putting us within a point. That third win puts as ahead of them, if they lose their next game. They could definitely end up needing a 5/6 gamer, but not necessarily. 

Montreal plays Arizona tonight, which is an unfortunate matchup for us. But maybe Galchenyuk makes a statement. 

Agree about now being the best time for Botterill to do something. We are too close to not at least attempt the old college try. Our first 2 games are on the road after the break, but we then head into a 7 game homestand, where the Sabres have been good, and the opponents are hardly murderer's row. 

To me that stretch is make or break for our playoff hopes. February is the big month. We'll know by the end of it whether we'll actually get a playoff race 'till season's end, or if we'll be out of it 2 months early again.

Edited January 23, 2019 by Thorny

[Taro T]

8 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Never said you were, so chill. It has been in my posts and thoughts about the fact that it may only be partly Casey and partly the wings he has. Sheary and KO/ TT are not the best to play with a C you're trying to develop in his 1st season.

Where I said "to pin it on Casey" was not meant against you, but as a general statement to public sentiment. I also agree with you on most everything else. I've repeatedly said that I'm not against bringing in a 2C depending on who and at what cost. But I think it's a pipe dream to think just a 2C will get us to the playoffs, too many issues that need cleaning up. 

Fair enough.  Sorry if your tone was misconstrued.  (1 of the biggest problems with written communication.)

[dudacek]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

One would hope that Jbot would get something done (if he intends to) during this 10 day break.  The Sabres are hanging on to 9th.  They are now 4 points out of 8th (Pitt) and 5 out of 7th (Mon), but we are only 2 points ahead of 10th Carolina.  We have 2 games in hand on Montreal, but that won't be enough to catch them and both Buf and Pitt have played 48 games.

We are going to need a 5-6 game winning streak just to get back into this thing.

 

I would hope the biggest priority for the break is coming to a deal, or at least an understanding of the parameters of what is needed to make a deal, with Skinner. This team can not afford letting him walk for nothing.

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

I would hope the biggest priority for the break is coming to a deal, or at least an understanding of the parameters of what is needed to make a deal, with Skinner. This team can not afford letting him walk for nothing.

A fair point, but it would also help show him that we are serious about becoming a good team by getting him and Jack some help up front.

[jame]

Mittelstadt should’ve been in Rochester all year. Botts trade of ROR and believing Mitts was ready is  a poor reflection on his abilities as a general manager. We have potentially wasted 1 of 3 Dahlin ELC years and 1 of 2 Reinhart bridge years... and stunted the growth of our blue chip prospect in the process.

[Weave]

2 minutes ago, jame said:

Mittelstadt should’ve been in Rochester all year. Botts trade of ROR and believing Mitts was ready is  a poor reflection on his abilities as a general manager. We have potentially wasted 1 of 3 Dahlin ELC years and 1 of 2 Reinhart bridge years... and stunted the growth of our blue chip prospect in the process.

I don't know that Mittlestadt is being stunted, but the biggest crime committed is wasting the cheap years of very good talent.  It sure makes the window for contention a whole lot smaller in a cap era.

[jame]

2 minutes ago, Weave said:

I don't know that Mittlestadt is being stunted, but the biggest crime committed is wasting the cheap years of very good talent.  It sure makes the window for contention a whole lot smaller in a cap era.

I would define “stunting” as anytime you are not putting a high end young prospect in a great situation. 

At the end of this year, it will be hard to say we did that with Mittelstadt 

[dudacek]

11 minutes ago, jame said:

Mittelstadt should’ve been in Rochester all year. Botts trade of ROR and believing Mitts was ready is  a poor reflection on his abilities as a general manager. We have potentially wasted 1 of 3 Dahlin ELC years and 1 of 2 Reinhart bridge years... and stunted the growth of our blue chip prospect in the process.

 

7 minutes ago, Weave said:

I don't know that Mittlestadt is being stunted, but the biggest crime committed is wasting the cheap years of very good talent.  It sure makes the window for contention a whole lot smaller in a cap era.

 

Botterill got two extra cheap years from Reinhart and set himself up to do the same with Mittelstadt. He traded the expensive Kane and O’Reilly for young talent and cap space.

He might have misjudged what he was getting this year talent-wisenfrom Mittelstadt and Berglund, but his moves have been to create cap space behind Eichel, instead of filling it ahead of him.

[Thorner]

9 minutes ago, jame said:

Mittelstadt should’ve been in Rochester all year. Botts trade of ROR and believing Mitts was ready is  a poor reflection on his abilities as a general manager. We have potentially wasted 1 of 3 Dahlin ELC years and 1 of 2 Reinhart bridge years... and stunted the growth of our blue chip prospect in the process.

To me, it's more the amalgamation of several Botterill moves that lead to preliminary questioning on my part, rather than being outright opposed to the included moves individually.

I'm good with the idea that Botterill felt he needed to move ROR, and even that he wanted Mittelstadt to have a shot at the 2C, but not if the only safety valve for that position is a cap dump in Berglund. And especially not when, when said player (Berglund) flamed out, Botterill did nothing as of yet to replace him. 

How the Reinhart deal factors in remains the most interesting, to me. If we didn't intend on pushing for the playoffs while he have him on this cheap bridge, was it really a good deal to make considering he could have been had for probably much cheaper in the long run, for a slight overpay in the near term? It's really looking like he's going to command a healthy raise on his next deal, and very likely a fair bit more than we could have had him for on a long-term deal last summer.

Is that contract reflective of a miss-fire in talent judgement, or just something Botterill was more than fine living with, and risking, when he signed him to it? I wonder if he takes a do-over on that deal, if somehow offered the opportunity. 

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

 

Botterill got two extra cheap years from Reinhart and set himself up to do the same with Mittelstadt. He traded the expensive Kane and O’Reilly for young talent and cap space.

He might have misjudged what he was getting this year talent-wisenfrom Mittelstadt and Berglund, but his moves have been to create cap space behind Eichel, instead of filling it ahead of him.

But was this really the right move, considering it's looking like it comes at the expense of more expensive years after those 2, when we will be more in need of cap space, relative to what we could have likely signed him up for?

It was definitely a risk at the time, but he's paid to make the right call on those decisions. Wouldn't we be happier with a 7/8 year, 5/6 mil AAV Reinhart pact currently, than the prospect of his coming raise? What is Reinhart going to cost if he goes through even no further development next season (wouldn't count on that), and finishes this season and next with the 75 points he's currently pacing for this year?

Edited January 23, 2019 by Thorny

[Taro T]

16 minutes ago, Weave said:

I don't know that Mittlestadt is being stunted, but the biggest crime committed is wasting the cheap years of very good talent.  It sure makes the window for contention a whole lot smaller in a cap era.

And that's the real flaw of a scorched earth tank.  There is extremely little talent in the system that's older than the fruits of the tank.  That older talent is necessary to not force the kids into leadership roles they aren't ready for.

The Loafs didn't full on scorched earth tank to get Matthews.  They got rid of some older vets & kept a bunch of talented kids on the farm when they decided to shoot for 30th.

Throw on missing on guys that draft picks & prospects were traded for and rather than accelerating the recovery from the tank that recovery gets retarded.

[jame]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

To me, it's more the amalgamation of several Botterill moves that lead to preliminary questioning on my part, rather than being outright opposed to the included moves individually.

I'm good with the idea that Botterill felt he needed to move ROR, and even that he wanted Mittelstadt to have a shot at the 2C, but not if the only safety valve for that position is a cap dump in Berglund. And especially not when, when said player (Berglund) flamed out, Botterill did nothing as of yet to replace him. 

How the Reinhart deal factors in remains the most interesting, to me. If we didn't intend on pushing for the playoffs while he have him on this cheap bridge, was it really a good deal to make considering he could have been had for probably much cheaper in the long run, for a slight overpay in the near term? It's really looking like he's going to command a healthy raise on his next deal, and very likely a fair bit more than we could have had him for on a long-term deal last summer.

Is that contract reflective of a miss-fire in talent judgement, or just something Botterill was more than fine living with, and risking, when he signed him to it? I wonder if he takes a do-over on that deal, if somehow offered the opportunity. 

I believe Botts got ALL the big calls wrong and lucked in to 3 critical things that mask what a terrible job he’s doing.

big  calls

1. ROR - fail on every level. I’m sure it’s been discussed ad nauseam here, but making the move under the “woe is me”/locker room narrative is awful enough, but then we get a ***** return on top of it, only for the outcome to culminate in another (potentially) wasted season and downstream impacts on development... it’s in the Chiarelli/Milbury club.

2. Reinhart bridge. Dumb. I sketched out a development profile of Reinhart as compared to Schiefele at the same post draft seasons... this season was predictable.

3. Mitts/Tage in Buffalo. They should be playing dominant 1st line minutes in Rochester together. 

 

Luck

1. Dahlin

2. Skinner NMC

3. 10 game winning streak 

with significantly more talent, we are basically back to where we were when Bylsma and Murray were fired... but we’ve got draft picks. Cool. Winning the draft is fun.

meanwhile a real GM took lehner in, helped him get right... and now a team that LOST John Tavares is on track to the playoffs. And another veteran GM who fleeced ROR from us, has overcome a terrible start to be back within striking distance.

frustrating 

 

[jame]

21 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

 

Botterill got two extra cheap years from Reinhart and set himself up to do the same with Mittelstadt. He traded the expensive Kane and O’Reilly for young talent and cap space.

He might have misjudged what he was getting this year talent-wisenfrom Mittelstadt and Berglund, but his moves have been to create cap space behind Eichel, instead of filling it ahead of him.

So Botterill saves say 3 million per for those 2 years... while spending over 5 million in those same 2 years on Sheary and Hunwick

cap genius

[Weave]

29 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

 

Botterill got two extra cheap years from Reinhart and set himself up to do the same with Mittelstadt. He traded the expensive Kane and O’Reilly for young talent and cap space.

He might have misjudged what he was getting this year talent-wisenfrom Mittelstadt and Berglund, but his moves have been to create cap space behind Eichel, instead of filling it ahead of him.

And we're 2-3 years out from a good playoff run it would seem, so about the time these guys stop being cheap we'll be ready for a one time shot at the prize before having to move expensive talent.

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, Weave said:

And we're 2-3 years out from a good playoff run it would seem, so about the time these guys stop being cheap we'll be ready for a one time shot at the prize before having to move expensive talent.

In the macro sense, Reinhart emerging as a near point-per-game player is a very good thing. We are going to take a hit on his next deal relative to what we could have got him at, but we'll be fine cap and talent wise if Mittelstadt is handled properly. We need him to develop along a path similar to Sam, and this time lock him up to a favourable long-term deal, the one Reinhart should have gotten.

[jame]

12 minutes ago, Thorny said:

In the macro sense, Reinhart emerging as a near point-per-game player is a very good thing. We are going to take a hit on his next deal relative to what we could have got him at, but we'll be fine cap and talent wise if Mittelstadt is handled properly. We need him to develop along a path similar to Sam, and this time lock him up to a favourable long-term deal, the one Reinhart should have gotten.

Mittelstadt is already well behind Reinhart’s development curve 

[dudacek]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

But was this really the right move, considering it's looking like it comes at the expense of more expensive years after those 2, when we will be more in need of cap space, relative to what we could have likely signed him up for?

It was definitely a risk at the time, but he's paid to make the right call on those decisions. Wouldn't we be happier with a 7/8 year, 5/6 mil AAV Reinhart pact currently, than the prospect of his coming raise? What is Reinhart going to cost if he goes through even no further development next season (wouldn't count on that), and finishes this season and next with the 75 points he's currently pacing for this year?

Thorny, you know me well enough to know I was firmly in the long-term contract for Sam camp for the reasons you state. I was responding to the suggestion that Botts was wasting cheap years when in Sam’s case he extended them. He’s going to get cheap second contracts from Mittelstadt, Thompson, Nylander, Pilut, Guhle, Asplund, and Olofsson that they will hopefully outperform, and he has the potential to slide in cheap talent with unsigned guys like Laaksonen, Samulelsson, and our 4 firsts. Meanwhile, he’s set it up so all the bad contracts save KO are falling off the books by the time Sam Rasmus and Rasmus are getting raises and he is hopefully not paying Skinner too much to score 40 for the next five years.

4 hours ago, jame said:

So Botterill saves say 3 million per for those 2 years... while spending over 5 million in those same 2 years on Sheary and Hunwick

cap genius

Meh, we’ll see. There might have been better moves available but that one ain’t going to break us.

4 hours ago, Weave said:

And we're 2-3 years out from a good playoff run it would seem, so about the time these guys stop being cheap we'll be ready for a one time shot at the prize before having to move expensive talent.

I guess there’s a chance we will eventually have to move Sam and Risto, but only if the young guys behind them blow up. We’ll have 24 million committed to players including Jack, Risto and Rasmus going in to 20/21, plus hopefully 15 million or so in Sam and Jeff. 40 million plus should be able to buy a pretty damn good supporting cast. There’s worse problems to have.

Edited January 24, 2019 by dudacek

[Thorner]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Thorny, you know me well enough to know as was firmly in the long-term contract for Sam cap for the reasons you state. I was responding to the suggestion that Botts was wasting cheap years when in Sam’s case he extended them. He’s going to get cheap second contracts from Mittelstadt, Thompson, Nylander, Pilut, Guhle, Asplund, and Olofsson that they will hopefully outperform, and he has the potential to slide in cheap talent with unsigned guys like Laaksonen, Samulelsson, and our 4 firsts. Meanwhile, he’s set it up so all the bad contracts save KO are falling off the books by the time Sam Rasmus and Rasmus are getting raises and he is hopefully not paying Skinner too much to score 40 for the next five years.

Meh, we’ll see. There might have been better moves available but that one ain’t gong to break us.

I guess there’s a chance we will eventually have to move Sam and Risto, but only if the young guys behind them blow up. We’ll have 24 million committed to players including Jack, Risto and Rasmus going in to 20/21, plus hopefully 15 million or so in Sam and Jeff. 40 million plus should be able to buy a pretty damn good supporting cast. There’s worse problems to have.

There's a certain level of humor in the idea that the current conversation is operating on both the "Sabres only have 3 good forwards" level, as well as the "Sabres are going to have to move talent" level, simultaneously (I know you are not in either of these camps). 

The Sabres aren't going to have to move Reinhart. 

Edited January 24, 2019 by Thorny

[jame]

13 minutes ago, Thorny said:

There's a certain level of humor in the idea that the current conversation is operating on both the "Sabres only have 3 good forwards" level, as well as the "Sabres are going to have to move talent" level, simultaneously (I know you are not in either of these camps). 

The Sabres aren't going to have to move Reinhart. 

The sabres arent going to have to move anyone... but re-signing Skinner, Reinhart, Dahlin and Risto in the next 2.5 years will mean that they will no longer have the disposable cap space to take on quality depth at cost.

the failure of this season... was that Skinner and Dahlin were the missing talent, coupled with healthy Bogo, McCabe, Larsson... we had a roster that could’ve won, but we removed a foundational piece of the roster in ROR, and everything crumbled even when so much had improved.

and an flukey winning streak masked it 

[dudacek]

Potential roster for 20/21

Skinner 8.5* Eichel 10 Nylander/Olofsson .9

Thompson 3* Mittelstadt 3* Reinhart 7*

Smith 1.2* Acquisition ? Acquisition ?

Girgensons 1.8* Larsson 1.8* Okposo 6

Dahlin .9 Acquisition ?

McCabe 3.5* Risto 5.4

Pilut 2.5 * Borgen .8

Ullmark 3.5*

Hutton 2.7

 

*Based on reasonable growth and market value as of their contract year.

That’s around a $63 million team give or take with three holes to fill.

Dahlin would be up for a significant raise the following year. Risto is a UFA and Okposo in his last year, the year after that. The kids would still all be RFAs.

We can make some significant acquisitions in the next two years and still have plenty of room to not worry much about selling people off, even if someone like Mittelstadt explodes heading into his third contract.

Edited January 24, 2019 by dudacek

[Carmel Corn]

The ROR trade is done, so the only question now is whether JB chooses to do something else with the assets he acquired there.  The talent pool is still weak from GMTM's reign and the draft picks from STL and SJ should not be wasted on rentals or short-term fixes.  Focus on getting Skinner signed and improving the powerplay via strengthening the coaching staff with a PP expert.  Reduce minutes or scratch players who are hurting more than helping (ex. Scandella) and acquire some inexpensive toughness to the roster.  Fish or cut bait with some of the prospects already in the system (Nylander, Guhle). 

No doubt that adding a strong 2C is a real need, but not likely to happen until the off-season IMHO.  Nice to dream about quick fixes happening, but we're several players away from having a team that can WIN in the playoffs (not just get into them).  It's going to take more time, patience and possibly a different head coach.

[inkman]

1 hour ago, jame said:

The sabres arent going to have to move anyone... but re-signing Skinner, Reinhart, Dahlin and Risto in the next 2.5 years will mean that they will no longer have the disposable cap space to take on quality depth at cost.

the failure of this season... was that Skinner and Dahlin were the missing talent, coupled with healthy Bogo, McCabe, Larsson... we had a roster that could’ve won, but we removed a foundational piece of the roster in ROR, and everything crumbled even when so much had improved.

and an flukey winning streak masked it 

Don't hate us cuz you anuz

Edited January 24, 2019 by inkman