Jbot Do Something Already - 4 Saving the Playoffs Edition

[Brawndo]

I think Botterill knows where this team is and he has a very good idea of what the trade market looks like right now. 

The prices that GA laid out to acquire Staal, Johansson and possibly Bozak maybe close to what the actual trade will be, but right now those prices are probably along the line of a First, Second and a A Level Prospect. Will Fenton, Shero or Armstrong get anywhere near those prices? Hell no but there is minimal pressure on any seller to make a deal at the present time as the returning assets are futures in most cases. The trade market hasn’t set itself and will over the next few weeks.  If the prices were lower trades for those players would already be happening.  

As poor as the depth on this team has been, some of the line up decisions made by PH have only served to amplify it.

Much to the board’s chagrin Botterill’s  best chance to get a 2C will be around the draft when all 31 Teams might be willing  to make moves for roster players or on July 1st in UFA

Edited January 7, 2019 by Brawndo

[dudacek]

10 hours ago, ... said:

I'm a little...no, a lot...scared of this talk about Mitts being "ready", and banking on that happening.  There is no way I would bank on him becoming anything in the NHL right now.  Contrast Mitts' development to Dahlin's, TT's, Pilut's, or Ullmark's, just on our team alone.  Look across the NHL at the development of other rookies.  I don't think Mitts should be the automatic write in for 2C.

Another issue: who is our trade bait for something like this?  I think we all should be sick and tired of getting back players who are busts, so we'll need to pony-up to get a quality player back who will actually make a difference.

I think we're talking TT, Pilut, McCabe, Larry, Samson (yes, I said it) or the like if you want a difference-make back.  That's what's being asked for here, is a return that will make a difference.  You're talking a first and maybe a second, at least a first, plus a good player to get someone worthwhile back.

 

 

The Sabres assets most likely going in a bigger trade for a centre would be an LHD (McCabe, Scandella), a wing or defence prospect (Nylander, Olofsson, Guhle, Pilut, Laaksonen, Samuelsson) a first-rounder and a depth forward (Larsson, Girgensons, Wilson). Those are areas where we have organizational depth.

Risto and Reinhart aren’t off-limits, but they aren’t going anywhere for parts; there would need to be a significant return. Same for Casey and Tage.

Only guys off the table should be Dahlin and Eichel.

Edited January 7, 2019 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, Thorny said:

Thread worthy? How much fault can be laid at the GM's feet specifically for this transgression? It's always risky to make judgments on a season before it's finished, but with it being the half way point, it would seem to be a subject worth breaching. 

If some of us here are even now getting hesitant about penciling Casey in as 2C long-term, what does that say that Botterill had him there from game 1? Is it a strike? A big strike? Not a strike at all? Too soon to say?

For my part I still have full confidence in Casey as a 2C long-term. But there's still the issue of how his season was handled, and the role he was placed in. 

The Berglund side has already been pretty well covered within the context of O'Reilly discussion. 

I think those freaking out about Casey being a 2c long term are overreacting. I say because he was playing HS hockey 2 years ago. Everyone was hyped for Casey this offseason but his season this year has been largely predictable. He's slightly under-producing what I would hope but I think he doesn't mesh well with his main wingers. 

I think Botterill has a plan and thought that he would have Berglund and Mitts as 2a, 2b. That didn't happen so Botterill is probably looking at trade options but clearly hasn't found something he likes. We have 4 firsts so people will ask for 1. Botterill made it clear he won't do that. The question is who blinks first. I think we will find out sooner rather than later. 

[darksabre]

2 hours ago, Brawndo said:

I think Botterill knows where this team is and he has a very good idea of what the trade market looks like right now. 

The prices that GA laid out to acquire Staal, Johansson and possibly Bozak maybe close to what the actual trade will be, but right now those prices are probably along the line of a First, Second and a A Level Prospect. Will Fenton, Shero or Armstrong get anywhere near those prices? Hell no but there is minimal pressure on any seller to make a deal at the present time as the returning assets are futures in most cases. The trade market hasn’t set itself and will over the next few weeks.  If the prices were lower trades for those players would already be happening.  

As poor as the depth on this team has been, some of the line up decisions made by PH have only served to amplify it.

Much to the board’s chagrin Botterill’s  best chance to get a 2C will be around the draft when all 31 Teams might be willing  to make moves for roster players or on July 1st in UFA

Correct.

[Marions Piazza]

16 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

My proposal for Toews

Toews (2.5mil retained), Davidson, and Kunitz

for 

SJS 1st, Guhle, Okposo, Sobotka, and Smith

 

I do think there would be potential to swap Okposo for Toews in some regard since they are both the same age and have the same length on their contracts. 

I hihgly doubt the Hawks would be interested in Okposo and Sobotka at all. Guhle and Smith are prospects that the jury is still out on, and the SJS 1st will be low in the round. I just don't see how that gets Toews with salary retained.

[freester]

No one wants Toews salary.  Thats why they would have to take cap dumps like Okposa and Sobotka to make the deal work.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I think those freaking out about Casey being a 2c long term are overreacting. I say because he was playing HS hockey 2 years ago. Everyone was hyped for Casey this offseason but his season this year has been largely predictable. He's slightly under-producing what I would hope but I think he doesn't mesh well with his main wingers. 

I think Botterill has a plan and thought that he would have Berglund and Mitts as 2a, 2b. That didn't happen so Botterill is probably looking at trade options but clearly hasn't found something he likes. We have 4 firsts so people will ask for 1. Botterill made it clear he won't do that. The question is who blinks first. I think we will find out sooner rather than later. 

Food for thought: Casey was a lower-ranked draft prospect than Sam Reinhart, he had a worse season post-draft than Sam Reinhart and he is having a worse rookie season than Sam Reinhart. Should we temper expectations accordingly?

To my knowledge, Botterill has not said he will not trade his firsts. Friedman said he would not trade them for rentals but indicated they might be available for young players.

[LGR4GM]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Food for thought: Casey was a lower-ranked draft prospect than Sam Reinhart, he had a worse season post-draft than Sam Reinhart and he is having a worse rookie season than Sam Reinhart. Should we temper expectations accordingly?

To my knowledge, Botterill has not said he will not trade his firsts. Friedman said he would not trade them for rentals but indicated they might be available for young players.

Casey was a lower ranked prospect yes. A worse post-draft season? Not sure how you come to that conclusion. Reinhart went back to the WHL where he was an overager. Mittelstadt went from HS to college where he was one of the younger college guys. He is having a worse rookie season than Reinhart but I think that has to do with the development path. Casey probably should have stayed another year in college. Should we temper expectations? Yes, because a lot people were calling for Casey to have a 50point year and maybe win a Calder. That was almost never going to happen. 34 points was the rough number for his first year. I think the struggle comes with not having any cover as he adapts to the NHL. Okposo has been mediocre and Sheary completely irrelevant. Mitts is the only offensive generator on his line and you can see that. 

That said his corsi is bad even with a 70% offensive zone start and he is only on pace for 22 points. Considering this is his first year of Pro hockey I am not as surprised I suppose.  Elias Petterson would be a natural comparison being the same age. The thing to remember is that Pettersson comes to the NHL with 2 full years of pro experience. He played a full SHL year and a full Allsvenskan year. That is a huge difference. I don't worry about Casey in the long run because I think we have seen progress in his overall game. Give him a full year and and a full offseason and we shall see. It should be said more often but 20 year olds typically aren't great NHL players. Casey... will be fine. 

[LTS]

10 hours ago, SwampD said:

You sold me. I'm in on Staal. Won't have to give up too much and would fill the hole left by Berglund,… quitter. (hi LTS)

I see you!

I think there's a signing or trade for a long-term high-value player.  I think that comes in the off-season.

There's probably a move to bring in even more youth, not just through trades.  Depending on how the 1sts play out, if there are 3 this year I would expect 1 to get moved for a player who might be a few years along in development, just to even out the ages and progression.

I don't see a 1-2 year contract player coming in who is set for a significant role on the team. (ie. 2C, etc.).  The goal would be to promote youth and grow.

I have faith in this management group. Even Housley's perplexing line-up decisions are done for a reason I think.  It's the most confidence I have had in the team in a long time.

[Ducky]

12 hours ago, freester said:

I think Chevy is one of best GMs around. I think Tyler Myers gets moved.   They’ll be fine. They don’t have any Okposo contracts on the books

Myers won't be moved. He'll walk in free agency or Chevy will re-sign him. When Buff has been out this year, Myers has played way over 20 minutes and not looked bad. When Buff is in, Myers has looked absolutely horrible. He should have been traded the year after he was acquired. 

As far as the youngsters being around for the first playoff run, that all depends who you call youngsters I guess.

Ehlers, Connor, Morrissey, Roslo, Copp (played 1 regular season game), Tanev, Laine, Petan Lemieux, Appleton, Hellebuyck, Brossoit and Petan? all weren't here.

That's 13 players off of the 23 man roster that weren't here for that playoff run and only Brossoit, Lemeux, Appleton and  Petan? weren't here last playoffs. So, just so I don't go too off topic, maybe making the playoffs this year and trading away 1st round draft pick(s) would, in my opinion, be the wrong thing for JBots to do. Those draft picks can keep you contending for a long time.

[freester]

I don't think JBOTS moves any of the first round picks.  I also don't think he has any interest in adding any veterans older than 30 with significant  contracts, unless we can rid ourselves of the contracts of Okposa or Sobotka.  Unfortunately Casey Mittlestaat is going to take a few years to develop..

[LGR4GM]

20 minutes ago, Ducky said:

Myers won't be moved. He'll walk in free agency or Chevy will re-sign him. When Buff has been out this year, Myers has played way over 20 minutes and not looked bad. When Buff is in, Myers has looked absolutely horrible. He should have been traded the year after he was acquired. 

As far as the youngsters being around for the first playoff run, that all depends who you call youngsters I guess.

Ehlers, Connor, Morrissey, Roslo, Copp (played 1 regular season game), Tanev, Laine, Petan Lemieux, Appleton, Hellebuyck, Brossoit and Petan? all weren't here.

That's 13 players off of the 23 man roster that weren't here for that playoff run and only Brossoit, Lemeux, Appleton and  Petan? weren't here last playoffs. So, just so I don't go too off topic, maybe making the playoffs this year and trading away 1st round draft pick(s) would, in my opinion, be the wrong thing for JBots to do. Those draft picks can keep you contending for a long time.

See, Winnipeg gets it. 

[Thorner]

17 hours ago, Brawndo said:

I think Botterill knows where this team is and he has a very good idea of what the trade market looks like right now. 

The prices that GA laid out to acquire Staal, Johansson and possibly Bozak maybe close to what the actual trade will be, but right now those prices are probably along the line of a First, Second and a A Level Prospect. Will Fenton, Shero or Armstrong get anywhere near those prices? Hell no but there is minimal pressure on any seller to make a deal at the present time as the returning assets are futures in most cases. The trade market hasn’t set itself and will over the next few weeks.  If the prices were lower trades for those players would already be happening.  

As poor as the depth on this team has been, some of the line up decisions made by PH have only served to amplify it.

Much to the board’s chagrin Botterill’s  best chance to get a 2C will be around the draft when all 31 Teams might be willing  to make moves for roster players or on July 1st in UFA

So if the prices lower as you predict, and the Sabres are still right in the hunt when the market sets, should Botterill make a move for that player, then? I agree with Taro that he might as well make the move now, or rather when the market sets, if it's available. 

Rather than waiting til the draft.

14 hours ago, dudacek said:

Food for thought: Casey was a lower-ranked draft prospect than Sam Reinhart, he had a worse season post-draft than Sam Reinhart and he is having a worse rookie season than Sam Reinhart. Should we temper expectations accordingly?

To my knowledge, Botterill has not said he will not trade his firsts. Friedman said he would not trade them for rentals but indicated they might be available for young players.

Well seeing as how Reinhart is a bonafide, point a game, 1st line winger now, and the expectation for Casey is 2C, I'll say no. 

?

Edited January 8, 2019 by Thorny

[Thorner]

13 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Casey was a lower ranked prospect yes. A worse post-draft season? Not sure how you come to that conclusion. Reinhart went back to the WHL where he was an overager. Mittelstadt went from HS to college where he was one of the younger college guys. He is having a worse rookie season than Reinhart but I think that has to do with the development path. Casey probably should have stayed another year in college. Should we temper expectations? Yes, because a lot people were calling for Casey to have a 50point year and maybe win a Calder. That was almost never going to happen. 34 points was the rough number for his first year. I think the struggle comes with not having any cover as he adapts to the NHL. Okposo has been mediocre and Sheary completely irrelevant. Mitts is the only offensive generator on his line and you can see that. 

That said his corsi is bad even with a 70% offensive zone start and he is only on pace for 22 points. Considering this is his first year of Pro hockey I am not as surprised I suppose.  Elias Petterson would be a natural comparison being the same age. The thing to remember is that Pettersson comes to the NHL with 2 full years of pro experience. He played a full SHL year and a full Allsvenskan year. That is a huge difference. I don't worry about Casey in the long run because I think we have seen progress in his overall game. Give him a full year and and a full offseason and we shall see. It should be said more often but 20 year olds typically aren't great NHL players. Casey... will be fine. 

This is a great post but the bolded serves the OP point: that Reinhart is definitely the stronger player when comparing rookie seasons. That Mittelstadt arguably should have stayed in College says it all: at this age, Reinhart was ready and scored 42 points.

Was Reinhart better prepared for the NHL? Maybe, but Casey probably played with bigger, more imposing players in the NCAA than Reinhart ever did pre-rookie season, of course not counting his 9 game NHL stint and AHL cup of coffee.

Edited January 8, 2019 by Thorny

[Thorner]

14 hours ago, Ducky said:

Myers won't be moved. He'll walk in free agency or Chevy will re-sign him. When Buff has been out this year, Myers has played way over 20 minutes and not looked bad. When Buff is in, Myers has looked absolutely horrible. He should have been traded the year after he was acquired. 

As far as the youngsters being around for the first playoff run, that all depends who you call youngsters I guess.

Ehlers, Connor, Morrissey, Roslo, Copp (played 1 regular season game), Tanev, Laine, Petan Lemieux, Appleton, Hellebuyck, Brossoit and Petan? all weren't here.

That's 13 players off of the 23 man roster that weren't here for that playoff run and only Brossoit, Lemeux, Appleton and  Petan? weren't here last playoffs. So, just so I don't go too off topic, maybe making the playoffs this year and trading away 1st round draft pick(s) would, in my opinion, be the wrong thing for JBots to do. Those draft picks can keep you contending for a long time.

Core young players like Scheifele, Lowry, Trouba, and Myers all spoke to how valuable of a learning experience it was for them. Ditto for Bryan Little, as it was the first playoff appearance of his career. Wheeler said the same, it being his first appearance since his 1st two Bruins seasons.

Guys like Roslovic, Petan, Lemieux, and Appleton aren't sniffing core roles on the Jets this season so it's a pretty even split. I'm honestly surprised Petan has been given the NHL rope he has in general. I don't think he's long for the league.

As for the second bolded, me personally I am not looking to move 1st round picks, I think it's much more likely that any deal Botterill makes avoids using those, particularly owing to his stated reluctance to move them. If an upgrade can be had for Skinner level prices, you pull the trigger, if it's a long-term option and not just a short term band-aid.

But given the hypothetical scenario where it's a choice between giving up 1 of those firsts and a playoff appearance, I'm taking the playoff appearance, without question. Particularly with 4 1st rounders in the next 2 drafts. 

 

Edited January 8, 2019 by Thorny

[Andrew Amerk]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

So if the prices lower as you predict, and the Sabres are still right in the hunt when the market sets, should Botterill make a move for that player, then? I agree with Taro that he might as well make the move now, or rather when the market sets, if it's available. 

Rather than waiting til the draft.

Well seeing as how Reinhart is a bonafide, point a game, 1st line winger now, and the expectation for Casey is 2C, I'll say no. 

?

So then let JBott set the market. 

[Marions Piazza]

22 hours ago, freester said:

No one wants Toews salary.  Thats why they would have to take cap dumps like Okposa and Sobotka to make the deal work.

but that's why they wouldn't move Toews for Okposo and Sobotka. No one wants Okposo's and Sobotka's salary either.

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 hours ago, Andrew Amerk said:

So then let JBott set the market. 

I agree.  

This team is so desperate for centers that there is almost no risk in trying something.  The acquired player is unlikely to be worse then what we have and if we focus on pending UFAs the price should be reasonable and we won’t have a long-term obligation if it doesn’t work.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I agree.  

This team is so desperate for centers that there is almost no risk in trying something.  The acquired player is unlikely to be worse then what we have and if we focus on pending UFAs the price should be reasonable and we won’t have a long-term obligation if it doesn’t work.

On the reverse....if that player does work out and then "walks" because they don't want to be here (or better offer) it becomes a rental which is not what we want  either.

I guess that's where your "price should be reasonable" would need to be examined in depth.

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I agree.  

This team is so desperate for centers that there is almost no risk in trying something.  The acquired player is unlikely to be worse then what we have and if we focus on pending UFAs the price should be reasonable and we won’t have a long-term obligation if it doesn’t work.

So, a 3rd round pick for a rental? 

[GASabresIUFAN]

21 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

On the reverse....if that player does work out and then "walks" because they don't want to be here (or better offer) it becomes a rental which is not what we want  either.

I guess that's where your "price should be reasonable" would need to be examined in depth.

A rental is fine.  We are trying to improve the roster now and get us over the hump this season and to buy us time until next offseason where Jbot will have the time to properly review the forward group and make long-term decisions. 

Listen if he can grab Courterier now.  Great, but that doesn’t seem to be Jbot’s MO.  He is very measured in his approach and generally I’m ok with that.  However sometimes the need is so great that even the most cautious must act.  

18 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

So, a 3rd round pick for a rental? 

Or even a 2nd in 2020 or even a prospect like Guhle for a better player.  With McCabe, Risto, Dahlin and Pilut the core of the D group and Nelson, Hunwick, Bogo and Scandella each with another year, I think we can afford to trade Guhle. This isn’t my preference, but in the right deal I’d be ok.  With Oskari, Borgen, Bryson and Samuelsson in the pipeline, Guhle could easily get lost in the shuffle.  (Who would have thought a year ago I’d be ok with moving out one of our better D prospects?)

[Ducky]

St. Louis would probably part with Schenn for the right price but I think they would want a fortune. He has a 5.125m AAV until the end of next season. I think they will trade him at the TD but it will be a big overpay. He's a good playmaker that is capable of putting up lots of points with the right wingers. 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Here is a small deal that could pay big dividends.  I have always liked Joel Erickson Ek. Minn drafted him 20th overall in 2015.  He has shown flashes of bein a good NHLer.  He is big, strong, and skates well.  He also can score.  He just hasn’t clicked yet in Minn, but might flourish someplace like Buffalo where he isn’t playing behind Staal, Koivu, Coyle etc...

I wonder if Minn might trade him for Guhle and a 3rd?  

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

22 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

A rental is fine.  We are trying to improve the roster now and get us over the hump this season and to buy us time until next offseason where Jbot will have the time to properly review the forward group and make long-term decisions. 

Listen if he can grab Courterier now.  Great, but that doesn’t seem to be Jbot’s MO.  He is very measured in his approach and generally I’m ok with that.  However sometimes the need is so great that even the most cautious must act.  

Or even a 2nd in 2020 or even a prospect like Guhle for a better player.  With McCabe, Risto, Dahlin and Pilut the core of the D group and Nelson, Hunwick, Bogo and Scandella each with another year, I think we can afford to trade Guhle. This isn’t my preference, but in the right deal I’d be ok.  With Oskari, Borgen, Bryson and Samuelsson in the pipeline, Guhle could easily get lost in the shuffle.  (Who would have thought a year ago I’d be ok with moving out one of our better D prospects?)

I agree that a rental is fine....just depends what you're giving up for that player and how much you expect from said player. Just that a "rental" should not really come with much expectation other than to help now, and the cost should reflect that. A higher quality player might cost too much especially if not re-signed, and a lower quality player may not get the results you are looking for now.

I'd also be careful giving up D depth. Didn't Oskari sign a 3yr deal in Europe? Samuelsson from what I've seen reported on threads didn't look that great in WJC. Lots of waiting for developing players might be in our near future. I'm pretty confident in our depth up here but beyond that it's more future depth beyond the next year or two.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

21 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here is a small deal that could pay big dividends.  I have always liked Joel Erickson Ek. Minn drafted him 20th overall in 2015.  He has shown flashes of bein a good NHLer.  He is big, strong, and skates well.  He also can score.  He just hasn’t clicked yet in Minn, but might flourish someplace like Buffalo where he isn’t playing behind Staal, Koivu, Coyle etc...

I wonder if Minn might trade him for Guhle and a 3rd?  

From what i've seen (just from his Bio) i would want the 3rd to come our way. He went 50 games between goals.