Jbot Do Something Already - 4 Saving the Playoffs Edition

[jame]

12 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The point is they were able to win those later cups because they drafted well enough to trade for or simply add good pieces, like the Kessel trade or Guentzel.  You always have to draft well and you being condescending about that belief, which I hold, is going to do jack s### to change my mind. 

 

As for the 6 year thing, yes. They didn't repeat as cup champions because they had all of their useful prospects in the NHL already. There was no one to replace players who left with cheap deals. It's why the LA kings suck now. We could burn all these picks and might repeat what the kings did and win a cup but we could also be like San Jose who did that a couple times and missed. It's just a different philosophy on team building that I believe in. Their 2007-2012 drafting was meh. They then start getting better, finding better impact guys, and there you go. 

The interesting thing is that I think we are about to see another Pens downturn. Crosby is getting older and they haven't drafted enough high round players to restock. When the Sabres are a cup contender, sure I will be all for trading that 1st to get the guy to put us over the top, but we are a bubble team, we just aren't there yet and continually gutting depth to try and win now isn't the answer and wasn't in 2015 when Murray did it. 

The bolded is utter nonsense.

I appreciate the level of confirmation bias you are willing to reach for though, that's a commitment.

Amazing how over those 6 years they were able to average 107 points a season... but apparently struck out in the playoffs because of their prospect pipeline... lol 

[LGR4GM]

Just now, jame said:

The bolded is utter nonsense.

I appreciate the level of confirmation bias you are willing to reach for though, that's a commitment.

Amazing how over those 6 years they were able to average 107 points a season... but apparently struck out in the playoffs because of their prospect pipeline... lol 

Not amazing at all. My biggest thing has been and will be depth. The grind of the playoffs. San Jose has been a top team for years and just never makes it. They draft ok but honestly I think they could draft better and that has hurt them long term. Again, it is my preferred team building philosophy. 

Here's the thing. You can be condescending and act like some bully. You can tell me I have a confirmation bias, which is funny because it basically impacts everyone so yes I do. You can even call something utter nonsense. Here is my biggest issue. You are constantly trying to change the conversation and using your own confirmation bias. Every point I use just confirms to you, that you are correct. This means that we are at an impasse and there is no point moving forward. We disagree on how a team should be built. 

So I won't back down and you trying to silence me by tossing out confirmation bias or whatever this post is trying to do, won't work. So in the words of Lando

[Sabres Fan in NS]

He got you Liger.  He got you.

[jame]

12 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Not amazing at all. My biggest thing has been and will be depth. The grind of the playoffs. San Jose has been a top team for years and just never makes it. They draft ok but honestly I think they could draft better and that has hurt them long term. Again, it is my preferred team building philosophy. 

Here's the thing. You can be condescending and act like some bully. You can tell me I have a confirmation bias, which is funny because it basically impacts everyone so yes I do. You can even call something utter nonsense. Here is my biggest issue. You are constantly trying to change the conversation and using your own confirmation bias. Every point I use just confirms to you, that you are correct. This means that we are at an impasse and there is no point moving forward. We disagree on how a team should be built. 

So I won't back down and you trying to silence me by tossing out confirmation bias or whatever this post is trying to do, won't work. So in the words of Lando

I understand your preferred team building philosophy. I'm only trying to help you see your blind spots (a 100 point/1st place team... loses in the playoffs, because of "poor drafting"... is nonsense. You can't see that in hindsight?)

I don't have a rigid  "team building philosophy". I have a view of what TYPE of team should be built, structurally/talent distribution/etc. But I'm not a slave to a long rebuild.

But I am happy to have my views and opinions challenged by others. What are we here for otherwise?

Edited January 25, 2019 by jame

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

He got you Liger.  He got you.

okay

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

okay

Not what I meant.

(wink - wink)

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, jame said:

I understand your preferred team building philosophy. I'm only trying to help you see your blind spots (a 100 point/1st place team... loses in the playoffs, because of "poor drafting"... is nonsense. You can't see that in hindsight?)

I don't have a rigid  "team building philosophy". I have a view of what TYPE of team should be built, structurally/talent distribution/etc. But I'm not a slave to a long rebuild.

But I am happy to have my views and opinions challenged by others. What are we here for otherwise?

No what you are is condescending. You have a lot of subtle digs in your posts that detract from others wanting to engage with you. For example your line above about being a "salve" to a long rebuild. It implies I think the only way is a long rebuild and therefore there is no way to change course. That would be highly inaccurate. I think it is the way forward for Buffalo. As I said if Murray doesn't screw up in 2015 and 2016, this would be necessary but here we are. 

I can see many things in hindsight but again this is another example of your condescending tone. Hindsight says that Pittsburgh wasn't good enough to win multiple cups until recently. I think a chunk of that reason is wrapped up in drafting. Is that the singular reason, no. Obvious there are other factors. I wouldn't try to say otherwise. 

[Broken Ankles]

36 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Boston could have drafted Debrusk, Boeser, and Barzal in 2015. I understand the Debrusk and Zboril pick but Senyshyn was and is one of the worst reaches in the modern NHL. 

And the Sabres could have netted:

Jack

Boeser

Beauviller

Aho 

And Carlo....

but we got “Murried”

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, Broken Ankles said:

And the Sabres could have netted:

Jack

Boeser

Beauviller

Aho 

And Carlo....

but we got “Murried”

Yep

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

Not what I meant.

(wink - wink)

I know but if he got or gets me he does. Nothing wrong with being proven wrong. I absolutely could be convinced that there are better reasons why Pittsburgh didn't win the cup again for 6 years. 

I am not sure I can be convinced that what got them cups at all was drafting. All assets come from the draft. 

2 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

And the Sabres could have netted:

Jack

Boeser

Beauviller

Aho 

And Carlo....

but we got “Murried”

Probably a reason I am very gun shy about trading those first round picks we traded away good talent to acquire. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I know but if he got or gets me he does. Nothing wrong with being proven wrong. I absolutely could be convinced that there are better reasons why Pittsburgh didn't win the cup again for 6 years. 

I am not sure I can be convinced that what got them cups at all was drafting. All assets come from the draft. 

Check for a PM.

[Broken Ankles]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I know but if he got or gets me he does. Nothing wrong with being proven wrong. I absolutely could be convinced that there are better reasons why Pittsburgh didn't win the cup again for 6 years. 

I am not sure I can be convinced that what got them cups at all was drafting. All assets come from the draft. 

Probably a reason I am very gun shy about trading those first round picks we traded away good talent to acquire. 

Those that cannot remember the past .........

[jame]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

No what you are is condescending. You have a lot of subtle digs in your posts that detract from others wanting to engage with you. For example your line above about being a "salve" to a long rebuild. It implies I think the only way is a long rebuild and therefore there is no way to change course. That would be highly inaccurate. I think it is the way forward for Buffalo. As I said if Murray doesn't screw up in 2015 and 2016, this would be necessary but here we are. 

I can see many things in hindsight but again this is another example of your condescending tone. Hindsight says that Pittsburgh wasn't good enough to win multiple cups until recently. I think a chunk of that reason is wrapped up in drafting. Is that the singular reason, no. Obvious there are other factors. I wouldn't try to say otherwise. 

I would say that if you're making decisions in 2019, based on actions taken in 2015.... yea, that's being a slave to a long rebuild.

So you really don't think those Penguins teams were good enough? I can only interpret that as you believing any team that doesn't win the cup... wasn't good enough to win it? Those were some great Penguins teams, they got knocked out in game 7 a couple of times... it's the NHL playoffs. If anything, they were done in by some awful coaching by Dan Bylsma in the post season (The Flyers series stands out, Peter Laviolette handed Byslma his lunch). 

You used SJ as an example before... how did they get to a cup final if they weren't good enough at drafting? The washington capitals haven't drafted well for a decade... how did they win a cup?

The Penguins were one of the best teams in the league from 2009-2015, but failed to win a cup... which time frame do you think they drafted better during: 2009-2013 impacting their back to back cups (2015-2017).... or 2003-2007, impacting their dry spell (2009-2015)?

 

[Carmel Corn]

Winning the cup is not always about having the best team going into the playoffs.  How many President's cup teams end up actually winning the cup?  There are too many other factors that come into play...a few may include:  injuries to key players, playoff bracket matchups (sometime really good teams lose to other really good teams in the early rounds due to the stupid NHL divisional bracket system), key players getting hot at the right time (ex. Fleury getting Vegas to the finals), officiating (do they let them "play" or call it tight, which can dictate whether skill and speed can overcome clutch & grab).

Regardless of how the teams get built, those who win it all generally have to have an element of good fortune and luck on their side.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I looked at the Pens draft from 2002 to 2015.  During that time they continue to find players regardless of whether they are at the top of the standings or the bottom.  During their tank year 2002-2006, they drafted and developed 16 NHL players including 1st rd stars like Fleury, Whitney, Crosby, Staal, Malkin, plus guys drafted outside the 1st in star like players like Moulson, Goligiski, Letang, Talbot, Kennedy & 6 others.

After they became good, drafting got harder and they traded many picks, but still found quality players including Matt Murray, Maatta, Guentzel, and Muzzin.  18 total player played over 100 games in the NHL or are full time players on current NHL rosters.  In recent drafts (2014 & 2015), they already have 3 players in the NHL including Kapenan, Sprong, and Simon, plus others still developing.  Simon, a 5th rd pick in 2015 is now their 3rd lie center.  

Compare to the Sabres.  

Their bottom days (5 years ) produced 16 players.  So far our tank years 2013 to 2018 (6 years) has produced 7 to date and all but Compher are 1st rd picks.  

Also from 2012-2015 Pitts has produced 9 NHL players while we have also produced 9, but their starting picks were 8, 44, 22 & 46 while ours were 12, 8, 2 & 2.

Just in case Eleven asks, we have drafted 32 NHL players from 2002 to 2015, and much of that success came when DR was at the top of his game and produced 15 players from 2002-2006. This 15 numbers is a little misleading because  Wideman, Biega, and Hejda either never signed with us, or were given a chance in the NHL.  DR’s record during this period could have been even better if he hadn’t missed on 1st rd picks like Persson and Zagrapan.

 

 

Edited January 25, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

8 hours ago, jame said:

I would say that if you're making decisions in 2019, based on actions taken in 2015.... yea, that's being a slave to a long rebuild.

So you really don't think those Penguins teams were good enough? I can only interpret that as you believing any team that doesn't win the cup... wasn't good enough to win it? Those were some great Penguins teams, they got knocked out in game 7 a couple of times... it's the NHL playoffs. If anything, they were done in by some awful coaching by Dan Bylsma in the post season (The Flyers series stands out, Peter Laviolette handed Byslma his lunch). 

You used SJ as an example before... how did they get to a cup final if they weren't good enough at drafting? The washington capitals haven't drafted well for a decade... how did they win a cup?

The Penguins were one of the best teams in the league from 2009-2015, but failed to win a cup... which time frame do you think they drafted better during: 2009-2013 impacting their back to back cups (2015-2017).... or 2003-2007, impacting their dry spell (2009-2015)?

 

You're again changing the conversation. I'm not going to respond because it will just change again if I do. We're now talking about Washington. We started with buffalo. You'll just keep saying what about until your confirmation bias gets confirmed. 

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I looked at the Pens draft from 2002 to 2015.  During that time they continue to find players regardless of whether they are at the top of the standings or the bottom.  During their tank year 2002-2006, they drafted and developed 16 NHL players including 1st rd stars like Fleury, Whitney, Crosby, Staal, Malkin, plus guys drafted outside the 1st in star like players like Moulson, Goligiski, Letang, Talbot, Kennedy & 6 others.

After they became good, drafting got harder and they traded many picks, but still found quality players including Matt Murray, Maatta, Guentzel, and Muzzin.  18 total player played over 100 games in the NHL or are full time players on current NHL rosters.  In recent drafts (2014 & 2015), they already have 3 players in the NHL including Kapenan, Sprong, and Simon, plus others still developing.  Simon, a 5th rd pick in 2015 is now their 3rd lie center.  

Compare to the Sabres.  

Their bottom days (5 years ) produced 16 players.  So far our tank years 2013 to 2018 (6 years) has produced 7 to date and all but Compher are 1st rd picks.  

Also from 2012-2015 Pitts has produced 9 NHL players while we have also produced 9, but their starting picks were 8, 44, 22 & 46 while ours were 12, 8, 2 & 2.

Just in case Eleven asks, we have drafted 32 NHL players from 2002 to 2015, and much of that success came when DR was at the top of his game and produced 15 players from 2002-2006. This 15 numbers is a little misleading because  Wideman, Biega, and Hejda either never signed with us, or were given a chance in the NHL.  DR’s record during this period could have been even better if he hadn’t missed on 1st rd picks like Persson and Zagrapan.

 

 

I'd say I agree. I don't think my original theory of the 6 years between cups can be attributed to drafting. I think it helped though build their last 2 cup teams. 

Edited January 26, 2019 by LGR4GM

[GASabresIUFAN]

Wow the Leafs accomplished getting D help, Muzzin, for two prospects and their 1st in 2019.  

Ok Jbot, it looks like someone can get a deal done.

[Scottysabres]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Wow the Leafs accomplished getting D help, Muzzin, for two prospects and their 1st in 2019.  

Ok Jbot, it looks like someone can get a deal done.

This is not the year to be throwing the future out the window. This team needs another year, they need time to develop what youth they can to come up and make an impact while at the same time moving some of the bad contracts. The Sabres aren't deadline buyers, they are deadline sellers.

[GASabresIUFAN]

21 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

This is not the year to be throwing the future out the window. This team needs another year, they need time to develop what youth they can to come up and make an impact while at the same time moving some of the bad contracts. The Sabres aren't deadline buyers, they are deadline sellers.

That is simply wrong.  It's time for Jbot to invest in this team.  It may not be throwing a 1st at the problem, but then again if you get the right player; someone under 27 with some term on his deal, this maybe the exact time to make such a move.

The Sabres simply aren't good enough at building from within to build a championship team.  We have no top 6 type centers in the pipeline, Mittlestadt is still maturing and any center we draft is going to take a couple of years to make the team much less make an impact.  

This team has wingers both here and in Rochester, D both here and in Rochester, a top line, and reasonable goaltending when the team commits to playing at both ends.  What this team doesn't have is a 2nd line center.  The playoffs are not out of reach, it will just take some effort on Jbot's part to get the right piece.

 

Edited January 29, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[Scottysabres]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That is simply wrong.  It's time for Jbot to invest in this team.  It may not be throwing a 1st at the problem, but then again if you get the right player; someone under 27 with some term on his deal, this maybe the exact time to make such a move.

The Sabres simply aren't good enough at building from within to build a championship team.  We have no top 6 type centers in the pipeline, Mittlestadt is still maturing and any center we draft is going to take a couple of years to make the team much less make an impact.  

This team has winger, D, a top line, and reasonable goaltending when the team commits to playing at both ends.  What this team doesn't have is a 2nd line center.

 

Respectfully disagree. This team doesn't have wingers, hell, they don't have a 2nd and 3rd line nearly across the board.

This year is not the year.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, Scottysabres said:

Respectfully disagree. This team doesn't have wingers, hell, they don't have a 2nd and 3rd line nearly across the board.

This year is not the year.

Getting a second line center slots this team nearly perfectly

Skinner Eichel Reinhart

Sheary ????? Erod/KO

Smith Mitts Thompson

Girgensons Larsson Pommers/KO

There are many ways Jbot can play this

1) Get a aging vet (30+) who is a UFA at seasons end like a Staal

2) Get a youngish vet (25-29) with time left on his contract or a pending UFA such as Courterier or Johansson.  I'd also throw Giroux here despite being 31.  The guy clearly still has game and 3 years left on his deal at 8.275.  Can you image a Sabres spin of Eichel, Giroux, Mitts and Larsson.  Giroux would help the PP, get the most out of Erod and Sheary (Or Olofsson) and make it impossible to key on Jack.  He has a NMC so such a deal is unlikely, but who knows.

3) Find a kid being miscast on another franchise such Ericksson Ek (Minn) who just needs the right opportunity to blossom.  It worked for Karlsson is LV.  

[JJFIVEOH]

On 1/6/2019 at 12:38 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

I have been a big supporter of Jbot, but I'm growing inpatient with his cautious approach.  I am not advocating a major overhaul of the roster, although the forward play outside the top 3 may indicate that it is necessary.  Nor am I asking him to leverage our 4 1st rd picks over the next two years to do a TM style trade to sacrifice the long-term for a short-term band aid.

What am I asking Jbot to do is react to a growing problem in a positive and meaningful way to bolster this team in light of Berglund's departure, Eichel's injury, Girgenson's extended stay on IR, and the continued absence of Wilson.  Basically we are without 4 forwards that could help this team.  All Jbot has done to replace that loss production was to pick up Elie in the pre-season and call up Smith.  Yawn!

In fact since Beglund's last game, Dec 8, are an OK 6-5-2

But without Jack, who played only 2 minutes on 12/31, we are 1-2-1 with only 8 goals scored, 4 of which came in the 1 win.  The loss to Boston yesterday, as the Erod lead 1st line was eaten alive be Bergeron and Company, has erased any doubt that this team needs a real shot in the arm.  The only one who can deliver that help is Jbot.

As I've pointed out in other threads without the D and Jack's line, scoring from our forwards is virtually non-existent.  We simply have no centers, regardless of reasons, who seem to be able to consistently create any offense.  Amazingly the best of the awful group has been Larry, who I and many others wanted to see sent to Siberia after his work last season.  

If Jbot wants this team to make the playoffs this season, the Boston game ended his excuses for not making a move.  A return from Wilson won't bolster the offense much if at all.  He is just another 3rd/4th player and we have enough of those.  Also Jack's return won't change the underlying fact that he have only one (Jack) productive center.  

We have 19 games until the Feb 25th trade deadline.  That night we actually play Toronto in Toronto.  That's nearly 25% of the season.  A move right now might just save this season.  Wait until the deadline and the season will likely be lost.

It's also not like deals can't be completed now.  There have been 6 trades since Xmas, including two trade by Edm to bolster their D.  I'm sorry, you can't tell me that there are no centers available.  If you look at the standings, especially in the East, there is a huge gap between the 9 teams in contention and the 7 teams already looking forward to next year.  Most of the those 7 have a player or two worth acquiring.  Ottawa has Duchene (UFA) and as we saw with Evander Kane, waiting until the deadline doesn't necessarily lead to greater return.  Maybe the Rags would trade Kevin Hayes (UFA)?  I'm sure Marcus Johansson (UFA) is available on the Devils.  Couterier, who is 26, and has 3 years left at only 4.33, is a player I'm willing to give up at 1st for, but I'd settle for taking Laughton (RFA)

Out West, Stl and Minn seems like the best candidates to find come help.  Staal and Coyle in Minn, maybe Bozak in Stl.  Other then Coyle, Staal (UFA) and Bozak (2 years left at $5 per) should come pretty cheap.

 

I am more impatient with Houlsey's approach. He is soft and a wimp. 

Regardless of our weak coach, we shouldn't have expected playoffs this year. I didn't. Of course it's going to be unfortunate that we're going to be the second team in NHL history to have a 10 game winning streak and not make the playoffs. 

I'm not going to judge JBotts just yet. But I have lost my patience with Housley and would love to have Q-Ville or Nolan behind the bench. 

[PerreaultForever]

10 minutes ago, JJFIVEOH said:

I am more impatient with Houlsey's approach. He is soft and a wimp. 

Regardless of our weak coach, we shouldn't have expected playoffs this year. I didn't. Of course it's going to be unfortunate that we're going to be the second team in NHL history to have a 10 game winning streak and not make the playoffs. 

I'm not going to judge JBotts just yet. But I have lost my patience with Housley and would love to have Q-Ville or Nolan behind the bench. 

Nolan? wtf? Now that would be going back to an outdated and outmoded system for sure. I mean I liked Ted back in his day. I enjoyed May and Barnaby and Ray and all that red black and white lunchbucket stuff but man, none of that is going to work in today's nhl.  

Also think Quenville is over rated (he had a LOT of talent to work with) but if he doesn't go to Philly I suspect he ends up in a long term deal with Seattle. 

As for the soft wimp part, they said that about him when he played too, but he still made it to the hall of fame. It's a new era my friend. Even Torts isn't a hard man any more. These rich players just quit on that stuff. Housley isn't going anywhere unless we fail to make progress next year. 

[JJFIVEOH]

3 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Nolan? wtf? Now that would be going back to an outdated and outmoded system for sure. I mean I liked Ted back in his day. I enjoyed May and Barnaby and Ray and all that red black and white lunchbucket stuff but man, none of that is going to work in today's nhl.  

Also think Quenville is over rated (he had a LOT of talent to work with) but if he doesn't go to Philly I suspect he ends up in a long term deal with Seattle. 

As for the soft wimp part, they said that about him when he played too, but he still made it to the hall of fame. It's a new era my friend. Even Torts isn't a hard man any more. These rich players just quit on that stuff. Housley isn't going anywhere unless we fail to make progress next year. 

It used to be about strategy and coordinating. It was when teams had two assistants to take care of that. Now they have four or five. 

Nolan won the Jack Adams award initially. And he made the least talented team in the league look fun to watch in his second stint. 

It seems to me today a head coach needs to be a cheerleader and not a teacher. Which is why I was a big fan of Spuddy. Everybody laughed at me for that until he took Vegas to the finals last year.  

[Taro T]

16 hours ago, JJFIVEOH said:

It used to be about strategy and coordinating. It was when teams had two assistants to take care of that. Now they have four or five. 

Nolan won the Jack Adams award initially. And he made the least talented team in the league look fun to watch in his second stint. 

It seems to me today a head coach needs to be a cheerleader and not a teacher. Which is why I was a big fan of Spuddy. Everybody laughed at me for that until he took Vegas to the finals last year.  

Everybody?!?  :(