Midseason Thoughts

[jsb]

1. If anyone told me we would be on pace for a 100 point season at the 1/2 point of the season, I would have told them they were being very optimistic but I would take it in a NY Minute
2. The 1st line of Skinner-Jack-Samson have been nothing short of outstanding so far this year
3. The team still has holes to fill but playing as many rookies as we've have so far, I think this will be very beneficial to the team in the near future, Pilut, Dahlin, Guhle, CaseyM, TageT, CJSmith have all had their moments good and bad, but I just can't keep from thinking this will all be for the good later
4. Secondary scoring needs to pick up but again 50 points at the 1/2 way mark is pretty impressive in spite of
5. The Defense has been better than anybody could have hoped, Dahlin has had his wow moments and rookie mistakes, McCabe makes a difference when he's out there and Bogosian's play has started a remake of "The Great Escape" but this time from out of the bunker. Steve Smith has been a big difference in both team defense and the PK
6.   The majority of JBotts moves have been impressive, HCPH has some additional rope to work with because of the team's improvement
7. The GKs have been demonstably better than last year although Lehner has been outstanding this year with Isles
8. The only thing to ponder is the Berglund episode, not knowing the whole story it's hard to blast the guy but that whole ordeal is still just plain weird and he could have been a buffer for the 2C that's needed, that may or may not appear or develop later in the season.

Edited January 4, 2019 by jsb
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[Sabres Fan in NS]

Very good summary.

The whole thing, IMO, can be summed up in a few words (not that your words are bad, or too many ...) ... the Sabres now have an NHL roster, after years of not.

Some of the players are very good to great and some are good, but some are not good enough, but all belong in the NHL.  Now, that is not to say that some could use some further development in the AHL, but the question is who would come up to play in the NHL?

It also shows that with the vast improvements in the Sabres this season this is the NHL and there is the finest of lines between winning and losing.

[dudacek]

Minuses:

The PP is nowhere near the sum of its parts. No one has emerged on the right side to complement Jack on the left the way ROR did. As a result Jack is being keyed on and stifled. Sam Reinhart’s knack for tips and screens has largely disappeared. Skinner hasn’t really carved out a role and Dahlin, Okposo and others haven’t stuck around long enough to find a groove.

Casey Mittelstadt has been a huge disappointment as a second line centre. He’s worked hard and has talent. He just can’t seem to find the space he needs to create and his play has dwindled as the season has progressed to the point where he is no longer contributing. Tage Thompson has flashed skills as the coaches have been patient with him but has been too plagued with inconsistency and hasn’t put up needed middle-six numbers.

After good starts, veterans Kyle Okposo and Jason Pominville have completely dried up and taken the team’s secondary scoring with them. They make too much money and have too much heft in the room to be as ineffective as they have been. Conor Sheary has dried up with them and it has really crawled into his head.

Patrik Berglund was an utter bust as a middle six forward and the lack of offense from the depth guys like Sobotka, Rodrigues, Girgensons and Larsson has continued.

Pluses:

Our best players are playing on a level comparable to the other team’s best players. Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart and Rasmus Ristolainen have emerged as the players they were drafted to be. Jeff Skinner is the best goal scorer we’ve had since Alex Mogilny. (And no, I’m not forgetting Vanek.)

The goaltending has stabilized. Carter Hutton has delivered exactly what we hoped and Linus Ullmark is on track to be our goalie of the future.

Everything has gone the right way on the blueline. Zach Bogosian is having the best season of his career. He has been the rock of the blueline, a stud on a surprisingly good PK and huge part of the team’s identity. Jake McCabe has been a legit second-pairing guy. Rasmus Dahlin and Lawrence Pilut have injected much-needed puck-moving skills and Nathan Beaulieu has resuscitated his career.

Girgensons and Larsson have transitioned nicely from disappointing middle-six prospects to puck-hounding, board-grinding textbook fourth-liners leading an elite PK unit.

Edited January 4, 2019 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

Who is Steve Smith? Just kidding.  Wasn’t he a jump shooter for MSU and the Hawks?

This is another transition year, but a huge step forward in competitiveness.  However, I do think our lack of secondary scoring may ultimately be our undoing this season.  If we fall short of the playoffs after this start, I will blame Jbot for not fixing the hole created by Berglund’s departure. 

That said, this is a team still in transition.  When Jbot took over in May 2017, he inherited the worst team in the NHL with a bloated payroll, bad leadership, and many bad players.  In 2016-17 30 players played 10 or more games for the Sabres. Of those 30, only 11 remain.  Included in the 19 gone are key TM/DR acquisitions like Kane, ROR, Franson, Moulson, Gorges, Lehrer, and Kulikov. Even prospects like Fasching and Baptiste are gone.  What remains are core players like Sam, Risto, Eichel, bad contracts KO and Bogo, plus some guys like Larry, Z, McCabe, Erod, Bailey and Nelson (5 of the 6 are RFAs) who may or may not be part of the plan beyond the next season or two.

More transition is coming. We only have 14 current player under contract for next season and of those 14, 9 have only 1 year left. Jbot’s roster, despite KO’s terrible contract is extremely flexible going forward.  With the failure of the secondary scoring, this is where more change will come.

 

Edited January 4, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Who is Steve Smith?

New assistant coach. Came over from Carolina to handle the D and the PK.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

24 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Who is Steve Smith?

To use a Bills / NFL term ... Defensive Cordinator.  Also, biggest goat in the history of the Oilers.

Edited January 4, 2019 by New Scotland (NS)
damn you duda ... scooped me as I was reading his excellent summary

[Kruppstahl]

Steve Smith is one half of the Twin Towers in Edmonton, of course.  Along with Jeff Beukeboom.

We are on pace to be at least 15 points better than I would have guessed this year.

That pace is probably misleading b/c of the big win streak however. 

At this point, I just want us to qualify for the playoffs any way we can, even if we lose in 4.

It's been so long since we enjoyed the magic of a playoff game day I almost can't remember what it feels like.

 

 

 

[DarthEbriate]

Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.

Except Nylander. I thought he was going to get a few games at the beginning of the season with the injury to Wilson and then keep his spot with some PP2 goals, until chemistry developed on a bona fide second line threat. Maybe next year...

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Sorry, GA, but Bogo certainly is living up to his contrat this season.

Edited January 4, 2019 by New Scotland (NS)
I think even the Bunker Crew and their fearless leader (TrueBlue) will agree ...

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

Sorry, GA, but Bogo certainly is living up to his contrat this season.

Performing well for 1/3 of a season 3 years after being acquired doesn’t make it not a bad contract.

He has produced less then McCabe this season and we are only talking about 4 mill a season max for McCabe.  So no matter Bogo is still overpaid.  

Also ask yourself if you can trade him without taking a big salary back or retaining of the contract.

[dudacek]

Ask yourself how much this defence would be struggling with Beaulieu or Scandella forced to take on Bogo’s minutes or with Risto and McCabe forced to replace his presence on the bench or in the room. Ask yourself who stands up for his teammates with him out.

Bogosian is certainly behind Jack and Skinner as our toughest to replace part this year.

But he’s right there with Sam and Risto in the next tier.

[Thorner]

39 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Ask yourself how much this defence would be struggling with Beaulieu or Scandella forced to take on Bogo’s minutes or with Risto and McCabe forced to replace his presence on the bench or in the room. Ask yourself who stands up for his teammates with him out.

Bogosian is certainly behind Jack and Skinner as our toughest to replace part this year.

But he’s right there with Sam and Risto in the next tier.

Plus, the jury is still out. He generally hasn't had a problem playing 50-60 games. 

[Taro T]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

Plus, the jury is still out. He generally hasn't had a problem playing 50-60 games. 

True.  But he's typically played 15 very strong games; 15 OK games; & then 15-20 WTF are they dressing him games.

He's been their 3rd best D-man reliably.  Is he overpaid.  Yeah.  But on a team that isn't scraping the cap not nearly egregiously enough to care.

And though our wish that he could be the 5 hasn't come to fruition, the 5, 6, 7, & even 8 (Nelson's still alive, right?) are good enough that if he goes out they won't be completely hosed.

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

True.  But he's typically played 15 very strong games; 15 OK games; & then 15-20 WTF are they dressing him games.

He's been their 3rd best D-man reliably.  Is he overpaid.  Yeah.  But on a team that isn't scraping the cap not nearly egregiously enough to care.

And though our wish that he could be the 5 hasn't come to fruition, the 5, 6, 7, & even 8 (Nelson's still alive, right?) are good enough that if he goes out they won't be completely hosed.

So do we re-sign him? I still think at the end of the day he's probably too much of an injury risk, especially if he ends up missing a big chunk again this year.

On the other hand, if he stays healthy this year, that's a significant accomplishment, and I'd be open to a deal if it's a short one. 

[Taro T]

34 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So do we re-sign him? I still think at the end of the day he's probably too much of an injury risk, especially if he ends up missing a big chunk again this year.

On the other hand, if he stays healthy this year, that's a significant accomplishment, and I'd be open to a deal if it's a short one. 

IF he stays healthy through next January, I'd be open to giving him a 2-3 year extension at whatever value seems appropriate.  Lots of hockey to be played between now and then.

[...]

3 minutes ago, Taro T said:

IF he stays healthy through next January, I'd be open to giving him a 2-3 year extension at whatever value seems appropriate.  Lots of hockey to be played between now and then.

I agree with this.  It would likely take a three year, though, if he makes it through the rest of this season and the first half of the next without missing more than a few games.  At that point, as far as the rest of the league is concerned, his injury issues will be "in the past", so his value will be pretty high.

[GASabresIUFAN]

No.  Never.  

I don't mind the out-pouring of affection for Bogo, but the reality is that he is replaceable.  He has given us great minutes this season.  Yeah! Finally.  Yes he stands up for teammates.  

However lets not forget his history.

2014-15 (acquired at the deadline) - 21gp 7a -7 but did play 26:39 per game

2015-16 - 64 (of 82)gp 7g 17a -11 22:21  - his best season here, but even that season was really just an offensive outburst in the second half when he had 6g 10a in his last 26 games.  He also missed all of Oct and half of Nov with an injury.

2016-17 - 56 gp 2g 9a -17 20:05

2017-18 - 18 gp 0g 1a -9 19:09

2018-19 - 36 (of 41) 2g 6a -2 21:47  - he is also behind Risto and McCabe in hits, has 25 giveaways to only 9 takeaways.  By comparison McCabe only has 16/9.

Bottom line: For a guy earning $5 mill plus +, he has given us 195gp of a possible 308 (63%) with only 11g (6 of which came in a 26 game stretch in 2016), 40a for 51pts (or .26 pts /gp). Or basically one year's of Ristolainen's offense.

While this is a comeback performance.  It is not a $5 mill performance, nor is it performance from which you consider giving similar money to a guy who will be 30 when his next contract begins.  

Given his injury history and spotty performance on the ice when he does play, this is a guy you let walk and use his cap hit to improve the roster elsewhere.  I'd trade him this off-season if we could.

Edited January 5, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[JJFIVEOH]

18 hours ago, jsb said:

1. If anyone told me we would be on pace for a 100 point season at the 1/2 point of the season, I would have told them they were being very optimistic but I would take it in a NY Minute
2. The 1st line of Skinner-Jack-Samson have been nothing short of outstanding so far this year
3. The team still has holes to fill but playing as many rookies as we've have so far, I think this will be very beneficial to the team in the near future, Pilut, Dahlin, Guhle, CaseyM, TageT, CJSmith have all had their moments good and bad, but I just can't keep from thinking this will all be for the good later
4. Secondary scoring needs to pick up but again 50 points at the 1/2 way mark is pretty impressive in spite of
5. The Defense has been better than anybody could have hoped, Dahlin has had his wow moments and rookie mistakes, McCabe makes a difference when he's out there and Bogosian's play has started a remake of "The Great Escape" but this time from out of the bunker. Steve Smith has been a big difference in both team defense and the PK
6.   The majority of JBotts moves have been impressive, HCPH has some additional rope to work with because of the team's improvement
7. The GKs have been demonstably better than last year although Lehner has been outstanding this year with Isles
8. The only thing to ponder is the Berglund episode, not knowing the whole story it's hard to blast the guy but that whole ordeal is still just plain weird and he could have been a buffer for the 2C that's needed, that may or may not appear or develop later in the season.

Great summary. I knew BOGO was in for a great season because I didn't think he was injury prone. That has helped tremendously. 

The Eichel/Skinner/Reinahart line is far better than anything we ever expected. 

We never expected this team to make the playoffs this year. So the recent struggle is hard to accept only because the string they had before was so great. That was a fluke 

Great goaltending. Hutton is a great leader and a great offensive goalie. BUT......... he has one win in nine games........ Ullmark has one regulation loss the entire season. You do the math.

I'm happy about this season, but the Sabres might become the 2nd team in NHL history to miss the playoffs after having a 10 game win streak. 

[JJFIVEOH]

One thing I do feel good about is the fact the top 9 teams have about a 6-7 point advantage over the rest of the conference. So even though the Sabres have fallen, they have a much longer way to fall to be in the basement. 

[dudacek]

It may be a minority opinion, but I don’t necessarily hold Bogosian’s health problems against him when it comes to re-signing him.

Does he have a chronic condition that makes injuries likely, or has he just been extremely unfortunate? I’d expect my medical staff to make a professional call on that. If he is no more likely to be injured than Jake McCabe or Jack Eichel, then I am interested in bringing him back.

Not for 6 years, not for $6 million, but for a shorter term at a smaller salary than he has now, that befits the role I see him in moving forward. 

And that role will not only be determined by his play over the next 18 months, it will be determined by the play and contract situations of Risto, McCabe, Scandella, Borgen and Samuelsson, and by the changes that will inevitably occur on our depth chart through trades and signings between now and then.

There’s a lot of hockey to be played and I’m just happy the guy is contributing.

[Thorner]

On 1/5/2019 at 10:54 AM, dudacek said:

It may be a minority opinion, but I don’t necessarily hold Bogosian’s health problems against him when it comes to re-signing him.

Does he have a chronic condition that makes injuries likely, or has he just been extremely unfortunate? I’d expect my medical staff to make a professional call on that. If he is no more likely to be injured than Jake McCabe or Jack Eichel, then I am interested in bringing him back.

Not for 6 years, not for $6 million, but for a shorter term at a smaller salary than he has now, that befits the role I see him in moving forward. 

And that role will not only be determined by his play over the next 18 months, it will be determined by the play and contract situations of Risto, McCabe, Scandella, Borgen and Samuelsson, and by the changes that will inevitably occur on our depth chart through trades and signings between now and then.

There’s a lot of hockey to be played and I’m just happy the guy is contributing.

I'd say it's exceptionally unlikely he could be that unfortunate, so consistently, randomly. As many seasons in a row that it happened, I'd strongly wager it was chronic. 

That seems to be where the hope can come in, though. They did shut him down last season for a big surgery, and Bogo did brag on twitter that his injuries all seemed to be linked to this one thing that finally got fixed after years of neglect. Admittedly, I had severe doubts he could really address all his injury woes with one surgery, but, things look okay so far and I'd be happy to eat crow (and happy for him) if he plays a full season this year.

Edited January 7, 2019 by Thorny

[PerreaultForever]

On 1/4/2019 at 8:08 AM, New Scotland (NS) said:

Very good summary.

The whole thing, IMO, can be summed up in a few words (not that your words are bad, or too many ...) ... the Sabres now have an NHL roster, after years of not.

Some of the players are very good to great and some are good, but some are not good enough, but all belong in the NHL.  Now, that is not to say that some could use some further development in the AHL, but the question is who would come up to play in the NHL?

It also shows that with the vast improvements in the Sabres this season this is the NHL and there is the finest of lines between winning and losing.

Agree. Good roster at the top end and at the bottom end, D decent and improving, goaltending solid and still improving but the middle of the roster is still REALLY WEAK. Our second line simply cannot compete with the second units of Tampa, Toronto, or any of the other big teams, and the 3rd line is a mess. We still need more talent to develop before we are a real contender.