What Must Leafs Nation Be Thinking Right Now?

[Thorner]

3 hours ago, Brawndo said:

I see a Buffalo-Toronto Series going 4-2 or 4-3 in their favour. 

That being said, I just want to see a damn playoff series involving the Sabres. 

I also see them moving a forward Kapanen, Kadri or Nylander for a D Man around the draft. 

This. I'd embrace an underdog perception going into round 1. For one, just being back in the playoffs would be awesome, and 2, far less pressure on our guys. Good environment to learn in. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Marner vs Eichel vs. MacKinnon vs Matthews vs Nylander

Eichel 

Age 19 - 81gp 24g 32a 56pts = .3 g/gp .73 pts/gp

Age 20 - 61gp 24g 33a 57pts = .39 g/gp .93 pts/gp

Age 21 - 67gp 25g 39a 64pts = .37 g/gp .95 pts/gp

Age 22 - 34gp 13g 32a 45pts = .38 g/gp 1.32 pts/gp

MacKinnon

Age 19 - 64gp 14g 24a 38pts = .22 g/gp .59 pts/gp

Age 20 - 72gp 21g 31a 52pts = .29 g/gp .72 pts/gp

Age 21 - 82gp 16g 37a 53pts = .2 g/gp .65 pts/gp

Age 22 - 74gp 39g 58a 97pts = .53 g/gp 1.31 pts/gp

Age 23 - 33gp 21g 31a 52pts = .64 g/gp 1.58 pts/gp

Marner

Age 19 - 77gp 19g 42a 61pts = .25g/gp .79 pts/gp

Age 20 - 82 gp 22g 47a 69pts = .27 g/gp .84 pts/gp

Age 21 - 33 gp 8g 35a 43 pts = .24 g/gp 1.30 pts/gp

Matthews

Age 19 - 82 gp 40a 29a 69 pts = .49 g/gp .84 pts /gp

Age 20 - 62 gp 34g 29a 63 pts = .55 g/gp .91 pts/gp

Age 21 - 19 gp 16g 11a 27 pts = .84 g/gp 1.69 pts/gp

Nylander

Age 19 - 22 gp 6g 7a 13 pts = .27 g/gp .59 pts/gp

Age 20 - 81gp 22g 39a 61pts = .27 g/gp .75 pts/gp

Age 21 - 82 gp 20g 41a 61pts = .24 g/gp .74 pts/gp

Age 22 - 5 gp 0g 2a (not enough games to calculate anything meaningful)

Reinhart

Age 22 - 82gp 25g 25a 50 pts = .31 g/gp .61 pts/gp

Age 23 - 34gp 8g 24a 32 pts = .24 g/gp .94 pts/gp

I think we can dispense with any comparison between Jack and Nylander.  Nylander playing on one of the most talented teams in the NHL doesn't even approach Jack production.  Now as to Marner.  Marner plays on one of the deepest teams in hockey with Nylander, Kadri, Matthews and Tavares, yet Marner is a worse goal scorer and his over number approach Jack, but don't exceed him.  However Jack is the guy every team tries to stop on the Sabres.  Marner is the 4th or 5th guy teams are focused on.  Easier to put up big numbers that way.  

As Matthews, he is an Ovie type goal scorer.  Simply an amazing nose for the net.  However, as Skinner has shown this season, he has the privilege of playing with elite players.  Also I added some numbers on Reinhart that show his improvement.

If I had to rank these players

1. Matthews

2. Eichel

3. Marner

4. Nylander

5. Reinhart

[Thorner]

The MacKinnon comparison is such a fun one, because Jack has out-produced him at virtually every age. And we know how good MacKinnon is. 

I'd take Reinhart on my team before Nylander. 

[Huckleberry]

Only one way to make them cry, kick them out in the 1st round.

[dudacek]

47 minutes ago, Thorny said:

 

I'd take Reinhart on my team before Nylander. 

Nylander has put up two 60 points seasons, but he’s never had a 69 points in 72 games stretch like the one Sam is currently on.

Tied with Point, Barkov, Stamkos and Patrick Kane for 21 in NHL scoring in that period.

Not only is that more than the holdout Nylander and the injured Matthews, it’s more than the $11 million healthy John Tavares.

Edited December 18, 2018 by dudacek

[Thorner]

Just now, dudacek said:

 Nylander has put up two 60 points seasons, but he’s never had a 69 points in a 72 game stretch like the one Sam is currently on.

Tied with Point, Barkov, Stamkos and Patrick Kane for 21 in NHL scoring in 2018.

Not only is that more than the holdout Nylander and the injured Matthews, it’s more than the $11 million healthy John Tavares.

Nice. 

[Beer]

Matthews is going to get paid McDavid money (~$12M+) and Marner is going to get paid like Jack (~10M).  They are going to have so much money tied up in a handful of player that they are going to struggle to keep competitive in other areas.  Good rosters have balance and I just see Toronto becoming too heavy on offense.  Dubas should have viewed the Nylander holdout as a golden opportunity to alleviate that problem but instead decided to pay the guy $6.9M (I believe).  As stated by others, Nylander could have fetched a solid defensive player.  I was ready to give them Risto for his rights... oops, my bad.

We get to look forward to 6-8 years of excellent hockey against the Leafs.  I personally see that as a good thing.  We need a good rivalry.  Beating the piss out of them will be all the more sweet.

[Scottysabres]

4 hours ago, Marions Piazza said:

i would like to see the actual break out, but, i couldnt find anywhere that can prove your theory about the Leafs playing more time in the other teams zone than the Sabres. As it sits, the Leafs are better offensively and defensively with more reliable secondary scoring. 

when will this secondary scoring come on line for us? were at like 40% of the season over and none of Sheary, Okposo, Mittlestadt, Thompson, P-ville, Sobotka is reliably scoring. 

This is much more than just this season. The tear down and rebuild is roughly 70% complete. Just a small handful of poor contracts to get through in the next year or 2 combined with the developing wingers in the AHL, the to date successful pipeline globally for the Sabres prospects not yet in the AHL or with the club along with four 1st rd picks in the next 2 drafts, a defense that is clearly better and deeper than the Leafs, 2 net minders that are clearly better than the Leafs current tandem, the tight cap situation the Leafs are going to find themselves in following this season and there is more than enough reasons to project the Sabres as the long term better club.

As for the Leafs playing more time in the offensive zone, I would have thought it was quite obvious from your own mindset on them. If we only have 1 line as opposed to their 3 that can maybe match their pace, it should be a foregone conclusion their 3 to 1 ratio spends more time in the O zone than our deficient lines.

[Neo]

115 - 78 - 18.

4 - 1 - 0. 

Edited December 18, 2018 by Neo

[Doohicksie]

Never mind.  Totally messed that up.

Edited December 18, 2018 by Doohickie

[Beer]

Neo- English please, I’m not on this level 

Edited December 18, 2018 by Beer

[Neo]

15 minutes ago, Beer said:

Neo- English please, I’m not on this level 

Oops ...  Sabres v Leafs, all time regular season and playoffs.

 

confession ...  i like the Leafs

[R_Dudley]

Just finished watching the Ducks beat the Pens at home with great goal tending, solid defense, and physical play what might be considered the old fashioned way in today's  NHL.

I don't think Good solid defense and goal tending ever go out of style. You get that and 4 lines playing and sharing the minutes you can win a series or two.

I would like our chances against TO in a playoff with all our starting defense back from injuries. 

Note also watching Boston beating Montreal 4-0. Jumped back and forth between this and Pens game. Boston played physical with solid goal tending and defense and timely counter scoring... It works to win hockey games..       

Edited December 18, 2018 by R_Dudley
update

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Neo said:

Oops ...  Sabres v Leafs, all time regular season and playoffs.

 

confession ...  i like the Leafs

Ban!

 

[R_Dudley]

What Must Leafs Nation Be Thinking Right Now?

 

"Damn they just sent Tenneyson back to AHL before we got to play them. " 

[Pimlach]

What is Leaf Nation thinking?  Probably that they are going to be in a dog fight with Buffalo for a long time.  

I remember back in the 82 when they brokered a deal to join the Norris Division in an effort to play easier teams and avoid losing to better teams such as Buffalo, Montreal, Islanders, Philly and Boston.   That move made no sense but they tried to claim some old rivalry with Detroit.   They went on to win 0 Norris Division titles in 12 years.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

54 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

What is Leaf Nation thinking?  Probably that they are going to be in a dog fight with Buffalo for a long time.  

I remember back in the 82 when they brokered a deal to join the Norris Division in an effort to play easier teams and avoid losing to better teams such as Buffalo, Montreal, Islanders, Philly and Boston.   That move made no sense but they tried to claim some old rivalry with Detroit.   They went on to win 0 Norris Division titles in 12 years.  

I've posted this before, but it's worth remembering that since Buffalo joined the NHL Buffalo has (some of which Neo mentioned above).....

1) a 115-70-26 record against the Leafs including 70-29-8 in Buffalo.

2) Buffalo has made 29 playoff appearances since joining the NHL (21-29 series record) to Toronto's 28 (19-28 series record), 

2) 6 Divisional Titles to Toronto's 1

3) 2 Conference Titles to Toronto's ZERO, including a 4-1 series win in 1999 to clinch the Conference Title

4) 1 President's Cup to Toronto's Zero

Granted neither record is the record of a championship franchise, but I'll take Buffalo history over Toronto's during the same period.

 

[Thorner]

Today Lebrun was on Overdrive listing off MVP candidates, and got to Matthew Tkachuk in his list before I realized he definitely wasn't going to mention Jack Eichel. This was part of a conversation in which he was talking about how the Leafs would much rather play Buffalo round 1 than Boston (understandable), and then proceeded to mention that the Leafs would also much prefer a match-up with the Sabres than one against the Habs.

They do not view Buffalo as a threat and will not until we beat them in another playoff series.

Edited December 18, 2018 by Thorny

[Sabel79]

31 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Today Lebrun was on Overdrive listing off MVP candidates, and got to Matthew Tkachuk in his list before I realized he definitely wasn't going to mention Jack Eichel. This was part of a conversation in which he was talking about how the Leafs would much rather play Buffalo round 1 than Boston (understandable), and then proceeded to mention that the Leafs would also much prefer a match-up with the Sabres than one against the Habs.

They do not view Buffalo as a threat and will not until we beat them in another playoff series.

There's always this year. 

[dudacek]

Lebrun is generally pretty even-handed, and has been particularly gracious towards Buffalo in the past.

i don’t understand the Habs, unless they have some history of owning the Leafs. We have better top-end talent and better depth.

Bruins are interesting. I’m not so sure they have the talent advantage most seem to give them. Our best players are emerging,  Half of theirs are fading. They have a better threat anchoring their second line, but for how long? Our first line may have caught theirs, and I like our depth better, especially on the blueline. 

Eichel Bergeron

Reinhart Marchand

Skinner Pastrnak

Mittelstadt Krejci

Sheary Debrusk

Okposo Backes

Sobotka Heinen

Pominville Nordstrom

Thompson Donato 

Larsson Kuraly

Girgensons Wagner

Rodrigues Forsbacka-Karlsson

Ristolainen Krug

Dahlin McAvoy

Bogosian Chara

McCabe Miller

Scandella Carlo

Beaulieu Grelczyk

Hutton Rask

I think you’re right. We will have to win a playoff series - or at least scare the crap out of the Leafs or Lightning - before anybody starts to take us seriously.

 

[PerreaultForever]

Leaf nation is thinking about the Leafs. They are a rather myopic bunch :)

Right now, our D is better than theirs, but their second line is better than ours. Tampa is the team to beat. 

[Marions Piazza]

11 hours ago, Scottysabres said:

This is much more than just this season. The tear down and rebuild is roughly 70% complete. Just a small handful of poor contracts to get through in the next year or 2 combined with the developing wingers in the AHL, the to date successful pipeline globally for the Sabres prospects not yet in the AHL or with the club along with four 1st rd picks in the next 2 drafts, a defense that is clearly better and deeper than the Leafs, 2 net minders that are clearly better than the Leafs current tandem, the tight cap situation the Leafs are going to find themselves in following this season and there is more than enough reasons to project the Sabres as the long term better club.

As for the Leafs playing more time in the offensive zone, I would have thought it was quite obvious from your own mindset on them. If we only have 1 line as opposed to their 3 that can maybe match their pace, it should be a foregone conclusion their 3 to 1 ratio spends more time in the O zone than our deficient lines.

I am not saying that you are wrong that the Leafs play more time in the O-zone, I am curious to see that actually breakout and exactly how much time difference there is, that way we could come up with ratios, we could really see where the teams are at offensively. it could be broken down into the Leafs score X goals per 10 minutes in the O-zone while the Sabres score X goals per 10 minutes in the O-zone, seeing those averages vs how many goals are given up per 10 minutes in the defensive zone. Any stats guru's out there?

I agree the Leafs will have some cap issues soon, but, so will the Sabres, i dont think you can deny that. here are some salaries and some projections

Eichel $10M - Tavares $11M, Dahlin $10-11M - Matthews $12-13M, Skinner $9M - Marner $9m, Reinhart $6.5-7M - Nylander $6.9M  Plus we have to assume that Mittelstadt will need a raise, Ullmark will get a nice raise, if we keep Hutton as well, he will get a nice raise. Pilut will likely earn a nice raise. Things are going to get tricky in 3 years for the Sabres salary cap wise, not just the Leafs.

[Beer]

I think Marner gets more than $9M.  

I don’t disagree that GMJB will have some magic to pull off in the years to come but Leaves are going to have 45-50% of their cap tied up in 3 players next year... Matthews, Tavares and Marner.  I don’t know Reilly’s deal but he may be getting paid too.  It will be interesting to see what Dubas does.

[inkman]

19 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I said when they signed Tavares that they failed to fix their Achilles Heal by improving their defense.  I thought they had another opportunity to fix the D with the Nylander mess by trading him to get a real defender or two.  

Now they are looking at the Sabres who despite only a modicum of secondary scoring and 4 injuries on D are 1 pt ahead of them in the standings.  There must be some real hand ringing and hair pulling going on in Toronto.  After all how could this happen. 

They have to be looking at our roster and thinking that within a year or two we could be as nearly as deep offensively as they are as Casey, Tage and hopefully Nylander and or Olofssonn fully develop, yet with a younger roster.  However I like our D so much better now and in the future as Pilut and Dahlin develop.

Their top 6 D are

Rielly (a breakout star), Gardner (good O, lousy D), Hainsey (37 years old), Dermott (21 with 8 points), Zaitsev (can you say regression after getting a big contract) and Ozhiganov (who?). They have a total of 18 goals (10 by Reilly) and 64 assists (25 by Reilly).

We have rotated 7 guys who have produced 15g (no one over 3 goals) and 58a (Risto leads w 18).  I’d take Scandella, McCabe, and Bogo (when healthy) above anyone in their lineup except Reilly.     No one in Toronto’s lineup is overly physical.  Zaitsev is their most physical D.  None are close to Ristolainen or Bogosian.  Even Dahlin has laid more lumber then all but 2 Tor D.  Despite our more physical D group we are, Rielly excepted, as good offensively. Give Dahlin a year or two and he’ll be better then Rielly offensively as well. Frankly our D group is better built for the playoffs.

I’d also stack our goaltending up against Toronto’s.  I know people love Andersen.  He’s been solid for them and Sparks has surprisingly done the job as the backup.  Anderson carries a 2.55 gaa and Sparks a 2.84.  Hutton is at 2.54 and Linus 2.94.

As Babcock said, he knows now that each game with Buffalo is going to be a fight to the death.  However in the playoffs where goaltending a in zone defending is key, I like our chances in a 1st rd matchup with the Leafs.

 

I don't think anyone in Leafs Nation thinks about the Sabres for one second other than a speed bump they will hit the accelerator just prior to obliterating. 

[Scottysabres]

1 hour ago, Marions Piazza said:

I am not saying that you are wrong that the Leafs play more time in the O-zone, I am curious to see that actually breakout and exactly how much time difference there is, that way we could come up with ratios, we could really see where the teams are at offensively. it could be broken down into the Leafs score X goals per 10 minutes in the O-zone while the Sabres score X goals per 10 minutes in the O-zone, seeing those averages vs how many goals are given up per 10 minutes in the defensive zone. Any stats guru's out there?

I agree the Leafs will have some cap issues soon, but, so will the Sabres, i dont think you can deny that. here are some salaries and some projections

Eichel $10M - Tavares $11M, Dahlin $10-11M - Matthews $12-13M, Skinner $9M - Marner $9m, Reinhart $6.5-7M - Nylander $6.9M  Plus we have to assume that Mittelstadt will need a raise, Ullmark will get a nice raise, if we keep Hutton as well, he will get a nice raise. Pilut will likely earn a nice raise. Things are going to get tricky in 3 years for the Sabres salary cap wise, not just the Leafs.

I concede the Sabres will be in a similar cap situation. But that defensive depth.........flashes of 07.....