What Must Leafs Nation Be Thinking Right Now?

[Marions Piazza]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Yes it will. The Sabres have guys spread out. Mittelstadt is up the year before Dahlin along with Reinhart. No one big is up in Dahlin's year. Skinner is up this year. Defense McCabe gets a raise but that's no big deal because Scandella and Hunwick only have 1 year left. Bogo they have another year to decide on. Pilut will get a raise but it will be less than we think. Casey Nelson might get a raise but it will be scraps. We don't have Marner, Matthews, and Kapenen all up for new deals in the same summer. All 3 players are making next to nothing. All 3 players will be getting multi-million dollar raises especially Matthews and Marner. When we sign Skinner, we are only worried about the additional 4mil against the cap because 5mil of his deal is already on our cap. Matthews will probably get his bonuses so that means he's worth 3.775 in the long run against the cap. He will now be getting an additional 7mil against the cap and marner will probably be getting another 5-6mil against the cap. So to sign them, they are taking another 14mil against the cap, to sign skinner we are taking only an additional 4mil. That's why it is different. 

Yes. They have 56mil against the cap with only 12 players signed. Actually it is 56.275mil

excellent view point of that, i honestly didnt even think of it that way with Skinner. 

[LGR4GM]

Basically we can sign Skinner with what we save by having Moulson completely off the cap. However one of the reasons I am adamant about not trading those firsts is because if we do start to have a cap crunch we can trade away a player and fill their spot with a cheap ELC. 

[PalmTreeMafia]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Basically we can sign Skinner with what we save by having Moulson completely off the cap. However one of the reasons I am adamant about not trading those firsts is because if we do start to have a cap crunch we can trade away a player and fill their spot with a cheap ELC. 

Great posts, LGR4GM! And great point here that I bolded.

I think that Toronto will end up finding a way to keep their top 4 forwards (Tavares, Matthews, Marner, Nylander), but it will come at the expense of everything else on their roster to the point that they may not be able to effectively play defense in the playoffs. The Sabres, meanwhile, should have a much more balanced roster long-term. Even though our projected top 4 forwards (Eichel, Skinner, Reinhart, Mittelstadt) aren't as talented as theirs, they also won't take up as much cap space.

[LGR4GM]

It is hard to say how Toronto will be. Saying they are facing a cap crunch is not the same as saying they won't figure it out. Their gm seems smart, I would expect a trade for that defender they need. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

26 minutes ago, Marions Piazza said:

excellent view point of that, i honestly didnt even think of it that way with Skinner. 

I can't find Ligers original post about a new Skinner contract and the cap hit, but it doesn't make sense to me.

Skinner's contract is up July 1st, so if we sign him the new contract will count against next year's cap in full, unless I am missing something here.

I realose that I am only a CPA, but Liger's statement makes no sense to me.

[Marions Piazza]

8 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

I can't find Ligers original post about a new Skinner contract and the cap hit, but it doesn't make sense to me.

Skinner's contract is up July 1st, so if we sign him the new contract will count against next year's cap in full, unless I am missing something here.

I realose that I am only a CPA, but Liger's statement makes no sense to me.

so the excellent point he made is that Skinner is already making $5.7 towards our cap, believing he will get ~$9M will mean that only another $3.3M will be added to his current cap hit. He pointed out that with Moulson/P-ville contracts coming off the books, it wont be that big of a deal. Marner and Matthews going from both under a million, to maybe $20M between the two

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

I can't find Ligers original post about a new Skinner contract and the cap hit, but it doesn't make sense to me.

Skinner's contract is up July 1st, so if we sign him the new contract will count against next year's cap in full, unless I am missing something here.

I realose that I am only a CPA, but Liger's statement makes no sense to me.

Skinner is getting paid 5.7, what i am saying is we already can fit that 5.7 under our cap. So when he gets say 9, we are only adding an additional amount to the what we can already fit under our cap.

Next year we are at 56mil. We add in Skinner's 9 that brings us to 65mil with about 18mil left to sign the remaining 8 players we need. That may seem like a lot but... their aren't other big contracts with the exception of maybe McCabe getting a decent raise. 

Edited December 18, 2018 by LGR4GM

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Marions Piazza said:

I forgot about Pilut's contract, but I bet Pilut plays himself into a nice raise, just my opinion. 

my original point was that many here have said how the Leafs will be in cap hell but not the Sabres. It wont be an easier or harder for the Sabres to manage their cap than the Leafs

A part of the reason the Loafs appear to be headed for salary cap h-e-double hockey sticks is that they will have a large percentage of the cap tied up strictly in forwards and Reilly will be due a huge raise soon & Gardiner a big one.  (Probably Andersen as well.)

Thing is, back when they had Phaneuf & Clarkson on the team they WERE in salary cap Hades but managed to get out of it.  Until we see it actually cost them players while getting pennies of skill back, won't get too excited over their impending cap armagedon.  But will be very happy should it actually arrive.

[LGR4GM]

For Buffalo we could have this next year roughly and still be under the cap. 

[LGR4GM]

I bet Toronto will find a way but they are going to have to make personnel decision to do it. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

I don’t think Toronto will be in cap hell if they do it right, but they will be hard pressed to upgrade the D.  They are going to have to rely on Bracco and Moore/Gunderson making an impact at forward and hope the 2 of their Marlins D can step up as well.  Keeping both Gardiner and Kapenen looks next to impossible without getting rid of a Marleau or Zaitsev.

At forward they have 7 guys under contract for 33.74 mill plus Bracco, Gunderson and Moore in the AHL.  4 RFAs in Matthews, Marner, Kapanen and Johnsson. I figure 19 mill for Matthews and Marner. That brings them to 52.74 for 9 forwards.  Add Bracco and Moore for about 1.6 and that gets you to 11 forwards for 54.34.

On Defense they have 3 guys for 10.3 in Rielly, Zatisev and Dermott.  Gardiner is a UFA and Igor O is an RFA.  Keep Igor for 1.5 and you need 3 more D at least.  Rosen was re-signed to an extension at 750k so he’ll step in as well. That’s 5 D for 12.55

Anderson is signed for 5 mill and Sparks will be re-sign for good back up money, say 1.5.  

All in they are at 73.39 for 11 forwards, 5 D and 2 G.  add another 1.2 for Kessel That leaves 7-8 mill to complete the roster. 

[Doohicksie]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Forget Montreal, Ottawa, Boston or Detroit. Every kid who grew up in Toronto on a diet of American cable TV, Irv Weinstein and house fires in Cheektowaga knows Buffalo is his/her natural enemy.

House fires in Cheektowaga.  Heh.

[Doohicksie]

2 hours ago, FuhrUrsinne said:

We just need to fix the second and third lines before we can really start to scare them.

Didn't you see the practice report?  Housley just fixed them.  ?

[Doohicksie]

2 hours ago, Marions Piazza said:

I think my original point got lost, I saw many posts saying that the Leaf's will be in "cap hell" which is "paying guys what they are worth" My argument is that we will have it no harder or easier with our cap and paying guys what they are worth than the Leafs

Every competitive team is supposed to be in cap hell.  That's the point of the cap:  To make teams that are much better than other teams jettison talent to achieve parity.

[inkman]

5 hours ago, FuhrUrsinne said:

Getting back to the Leaves... this could very quickly become the best rivalry in North American pro sports. 

Right up there with Yankees Red Sox.  Look, I appreciate your enthusiasm and it'll be fun but no one farther than an hour's drive of the Falls is going to even know these teams exist let alone are involved in some sort of border war.  

Edited December 18, 2018 by inkman

[Thorner]

6 hours ago, inkman said:

But are they worried about the 2018-2019 Sabres?  I wouldn't be if I were them. 

A team like the Sabres I think would be dangerous in a playoffs matchup. One, the Sabres would likely be going in as the underdog, and that's always dangerous for an opposing team as they'll have all the pressure - they'd be expected to win. Also, with our high end talent, we'd have the ability in a short, best of seven series, for things to fall our way just on the basis of Eichel's hair being on fire during that stretch. 

You want to play a team like Minnesota. Always good in the regular season, literally zero chance to ever be a threat in the playoffs. Being a Wild fan would suck. They've had as much chance winning a cup the last few years as the Sabres have.

Edited December 18, 2018 by Thorny

[Thorner]

6 hours ago, Marions Piazza said:

Eichel $10M, Dahlin will likely get the same if not more than Eichel. Skinner will likely be around $8.5-9M easily. Reinhart has quietly been playing himself into a nice raise over his current salary. He's on pace for 70 points, no reason to expect he can't do that next year as well, 70 points in the NHL gets you around $7M+ these days. If Ullmark and Hutton keep up their great play, both of them will get hefty raises. Bogo has shown what he's worth when healthy, i think we might keep him and he will get a raise. down the road a piece, but Risto will probbaly command a raise on his next contract. Assuming Pilut keeps playing well over the next few years and sticks with Buffalo, he's gonna need a new contract the same year as Dahlin. 

It's going to be tricky for the Sabres, I know that the cap will go up a little bit each year, but, it will be difficult no matter what

No one wanted to call this out? When is the last time a D man broke the bank coming off his ELC? I believe Ekblad set the high water mark with 7.5 mil. 

[Thorner]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I don’t think Toronto will be in cap hell if they do it right, but they will be hard pressed to upgrade the D.  They are going to have to rely on Bracco and Moore/Gunderson making an impact at forward and hope the 2 of their Marlins D can step up as well.  Keeping both Gardiner and Kapenen looks next to impossible without getting rid of a Marleau or Zaitsev.

At forward they have 7 guys under contract for 33.74 mill plus Bracco, Gunderson and Moore in the AHL.  4 RFAs in Matthews, Marner, Kapanen and Johnsson. I figure 19 mill for Matthews and Marner. That brings them to 52.74 for 9 forwards.  Add Bracco and Moore for about 1.6 and that gets you to 11 forwards for 54.34.

On Defense they have 3 guys for 10.3 in Rielly, Zatisev and Dermott.  Gardiner is a UFA and Igor O is an RFA.  Keep Igor for 1.5 and you need 3 more D at least.  Rosen was re-signed to an extension at 750k so he’ll step in as well. That’s 5 D for 12.55

Anderson is signed for 5 mill and Sparks will be re-sign for good back up money, say 1.5.  

All in they are at 73.39 for 11 forwards, 5 D and 2 G.  add another 1.2 for Kessel That leaves 7-8 mill to complete the roster. 

Matthews is getting at least 12 even with no offer sheet, Marner isn't getting 7 mil. 

[Scottysabres]

34 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Matthews is getting at least 12 even with no offer sheet, Marner isn't getting 7 mil. 

Agreed, I'm guessing 20 million minimum between them 2.

[Thorner]

What does Leafs nation and their media think of the Sabres?

Chris Johnston just made an announcement on Sportsnet that the Sabres would NOT be assigning Dahlin to the World Junior Championship this season.

?

Included Kotkaniemi, Sandin, and Zadina were the others mentioned. Later two in the AHL. 

Edited December 19, 2018 by Thorny

[Beer]

7 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Toronto will be in cap hell next year. They have 56million in cap so if it goes up to 83 million that leaves them 27million in cap space to sign, Marner, Kapanen, Matthews plus they need an additional 7 players just to fill out the 23 man roster. Let's say Matthews takes 11 and Marner takes 9. That's 7mil to fill out 8 spots. You only have 4 goalies on the roster. That's gonna be hard. 

This is what I was alluding to earlier in the thread, thanks LGR for putting some data behind it.

[Beer]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I don’t think Toronto will be in cap hell if they do it right, but they will be hard pressed to upgrade the D.  They are going to have to rely on Bracco and Moore/Gunderson making an impact at forward and hope the 2 of their Marlins D can step up as well.  Keeping both Gardiner and Kapenen looks next to impossible without getting rid of a Marleau or Zaitsev.

At forward they have 7 guys under contract for 33.74 mill plus Bracco, Gunderson and Moore in the AHL.  4 RFAs in Matthews, Marner, Kapanen and Johnsson. I figure 19 mill for Matthews and Marner. That brings them to 52.74 for 9 forwards.  Add Bracco and Moore for about 1.6 and that gets you to 11 forwards for 54.34.

On Defense they have 3 guys for 10.3 in Rielly, Zatisev and Dermott.  Gardiner is a UFA and Igor O is an RFA.  Keep Igor for 1.5 and you need 3 more D at least.  Rosen was re-signed to an extension at 750k so he’ll step in as well. That’s 5 D for 12.55

Anderson is signed for 5 mill and Sparks will be re-sign for good back up money, say 1.5.  

All in they are at 73.39 for 11 forwards, 5 D and 2 G.  add another 1.2 for Kessel That leaves 7-8 mill to complete the roster. 

I don’t see Matthews making any less than $12M and Marner is more in the $9-10M range.  The only way those two add up to $19M is if they take a discount a la Tom Brady.

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

No one wanted to call this out? When is the last time a D man broke the bank coming off his ELC? I believe Ekblad set the high water mark with 7.5 mil. 

No, because I think that's right. Dahlin has the potential to be that level of elite. 

44 minutes ago, Beer said:

This is what I was alluding to earlier in the thread, thanks LGR for putting some data behind it.

Meant 4 defenders not goalies but yea it's just gonna be tricky. 

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

What does Leafs nation and their media think of the Sabres?

Chris Johnston just made an announcement on Sportsnet that the Sabres would NOT be assigning Dahlin to the World Junior Championship this season.

?

Included Kotkaniemi, Sandin, and Zadina were the others mentioned. Later two in the AHL. 

I mean... was that even a question? Leafs media is out to lunch.