Hockey simulator giving Sabres 92.2% chance to make playoffs likely as 3rd seed with 100 points...

[matter2003]

Apparently its fairly accurate as its won some competitions with its algorithm...definitely promising for the Sabres chances...

Has us finishing below TB and Toronto...45 wins on the year...

Boston and Montreal are the 2 wildcards in the Eastern Conference...

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

Edited December 17, 2018 by matter2003

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I'm not a superstitious guy at all, but why is this here?

[WildCard]

Knocking Toronto out of the playoffs would be so sweet

[pi2000]

4.8% of the time (1000 iterations) BUF wins the Cup... that's 48 times out of 1000... maybe we live in one of those 48 universes?

[Doohicksie]

This is great.  But just watch the games and all will be revealed.

[darksabre]

34 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

4.8% of the time (1000 iterations) BUF wins the Cup... that's 48 times out of 1000... maybe we live in one of those 48 universes?

Those odds don't even seem that bad. 

[Brawndo]

14 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Those odds don't even seem that bad. 

Dr Strange saw only one positive outcome in 14,000,605 scenarios in Infinity War. 

The Sabres are totally winning the Cup this year 

[Stoner]

2 hours ago, Doohickie said:

This is great.  But just watch the games and all will be revealed.

Seriously. It's junk math anyway. It's like on election night. Why analyze the exit polls and call states early? Just count the votes.

[pi2000]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

Seriously. It's junk math anyway. It's like on election night. Why analyze the exit polls and call states early? Just count the votes.

Why?!  What else are we supposed to do until the season ends?  Just not think about it all?  

It why we're here.

[TrueBlueGED]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

Seriously. It's junk math anyway. It's like on election night. Why analyze the exit polls and call states early? Just count the votes.

States aren't called based on exit polls, FWIW. 

[Thorner]

Playing only .500 points percentage hockey over the remaining 48 games gets them to 93 points. If they win half of their games, they'll easily make the playoffs by way of loser points. 

It's scary, but this team SHOULD make the playoffs. It's gotta be the goal at this point, now. 

[DarthEbriate]

6 hours ago, darksabre said:

Those odds don't even seem that bad. 

These odds are better than surviving a direct assault on an Imperial Star Destroyer.

[WildCard]

2 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

States aren't called based on exit polls, FWIW. 

What are they called on?

[...]

23 minutes ago, WildCard said:

What are they called on?

[Brawndo]

45 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

These odds are better than surviving a direct assault on an Imperial Star Destroyer.

But we might take a few of them with us 

[GASabresIUFAN]

The guy on the Athletic now has us at 96.8 pts and the 10th best record in the NHL. He gives  us an 80% chance of the playoffs, 255 of getting to the 2nd rd, 8% to the 3rd, 3% to the Finals and a 1% chance of winning the Cup.

His model clearly favors teams that were playoff teams a year ago.  

[Thorner]

39 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The guy on the Athletic now has us at 96.8 pts and the 10th best record in the NHL. He gives  us an 80% chance of the playoffs, 255 of getting to the 2nd rd, 8% to the 3rd, 3% to the Finals and a 1% chance of winning the Cup.

His model clearly favors teams that were playoff teams a year ago.  

So he's predicting a 1.08 points per game pace over the remaining 48 games, after posting a 1.32 per game pace over the first 34.

We had a 1.07 per game pace even before the streak, so he's basically discounting any progress made during the streak and since as an isolated incident and projecting a return to a pace very similar to the one before said streak. Meh.

[Weave]

5 hours ago, Thorny said:

So he's predicting a 1.08 points per game pace over the remaining 48 games, after posting a 1.32 per game pace over the first 34.

We had a 1.07 per game pace even before the streak, so he's basically discounting any progress made during the streak and since as an isolated incident and projecting a return to a pace very similar to the one before said streak. Meh.

He maybe predicting that the games will tighten up as playoff desperation builds.

[Brawndo]

http://www.moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

Money Puck has their chances at 69%

Which is nice.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

SportsClub Stats at 91.7 

 

They need to keep getting points 

[Brawndo]

21 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

http://www.moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

Money Puck has their chances at 69%

Nice 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

SportsClub Stats at 91.7 

 

They just need to keep getting points 

 

[TrueBlueGED]

11 hours ago, WildCard said:

What are they called on?

Each of the major media outlets will have a little different methodology, of which exit polls are but one relatively small part. The bulk of the models rely on a sample of precinct and county votes, including early voting and absentee ballots. Yes, that's right, election night "calls" rely on actual votes that have been cast. 

[Stoner]

1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Each of the major media outlets will have a little different methodology, of which exit polls are but one relatively small part. The bulk of the models rely on a sample of precinct and county votes, including early voting and absentee ballots. Yes, that's right, election night "calls" rely on actual votes that have been cast. 

And the calls that come the moment the polls close? When Alabama is colored red at that instant, what's it based on? Not actual votes, since none have been reported. It's either based on "duh, Alabama" or "duh, Alabama plus some exit polls that confirm Alabama is going the way it always does." As far as I know, no early voting results are announced before the polls close. They do reveal the party identity of early votes. I don't even think that should be allowed. Yup, it's quite a democracy we live in. Let's count the ways the system is poisoned. Paging Jimmy Carter...

Edited December 18, 2018 by PASabreFan

[SDS]

13 hours ago, WildCard said:

What are they called on?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/nbc-news-decision-desk-how-we-call-midterm-races-election-n930806

[TrueBlueGED]

5 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

And the calls that come the moment the polls close? When Alabama is colored red at that instant, what's it based on? Not actual votes, since none have been reported. It's either based on "duh, Alabama" or "duh, Alabama plus some exit polls that confirm Alabama is going the way it always does." As far as I know, no early voting results are announced before the polls close. They do reveal the party identity of early votes. I don't even think that should be allowed. Yup, it's quite a democracy we live in. Let's count the ways the system is poisoned. Paging Jimmy Carter...

Well, yea. I'm just not sure what the problem with that is. Are you taking issue with how a state like Alabama is called, or the fact it can be so easily called? 

[Mustache of God]

8 hours ago, Brawndo said:

http://www.moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

Money Puck has their chances at 69%

Which is nice.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

SportsClub Stats at 91.7 

 

They need to keep getting points 

Niiiiiice.