Sabres D Pecking Order - 2019 -> Expansion Draft

[Taro T]

We're 2 weeks shy of 2019.  With 4 of the top 9 on IR we have

Pilut - Ristolainen

Dahlin - Bogosian

Beaulieu - Tenneyson.

When guys start coming back, and they will soon - Hunwick is already on a conditioning assignment & Scandella is skating with the team, how do the pairings shift?

McCabe & Beaulieu are RFA's this off season.  Scandella and Beaulieu along with Hunwick become UFA's the next year with Nelson and Pilut RFA's.  The following year either the 4th or 5th best D-man needs to be exposed to Seattle unless a dea lis made behind the scenes and Dahlin, Borgen, and Guhle are RFA's.

How do the pairings shake out when healthy this season?

Do you stay pat with the same D in organization minus Tenneyson for next year?

Does Scandella (or somebody else) get moved as part of a package for a 2C this season or in the off-season?

How do you prepare for Seattle?

Enquiring minds want to know.

Edited December 14, 2018 by Taro T

[Doohicksie]

Not sure, but even without Dahlin, can you believe how quickly JBot turned our D from a liability to an asset?

[Brawndo]

12 minutes ago, Taro T said:

We're 2 weeks shy of 2019.  With 4 of the top 9 on IR we have

Pilut - Ristolainen

Dahlin - Bogosian

Beaulieu - Tenneyson.

When guys start coming back, and they will soon - Hunwick is already on a conditioning assignment & Scandella is skating with the team, how do the pairings shift?

McCabe & Beaulieu are RFA's this off season.  Scandella and Beaulieu along with Hunwick become UFA's the next year with Nelson and Pilut RFA's.  The following year either the 4th or 5th best D-man needs to be exposed to Seattle unless a dealis made behind the scenes and Dahlin, Borgen, and Guhle are RFA's.

How do the pairings shake out when healthy this season?

Do you stay pat with the same Din organization minus Tenneyson for next year?

Does Scandella (or somebody else) get moved as part of a package for a 2C this season or in the off-season?

How do you prepare for Seattle?

Enquiring minds want to know.

Pilut stays up until McCabe is back then goes back to Rochester

Tennyson is returned to Rochester as soon as Scandella or Hunwick are ready. 

Nelson stays on IR until either someone else is injured, or he, Beaulieu , Scandella or Hunwick are traded. 

McCabe is signed to a 5 year deal averaging 3.75-5 Million AAV. Not sure how this shakes out

Beaulieu is qualified, however either he or Scandella is moved. 

Pairs are 

Risto-McCabe 

Dahlin-Bogo

Scandella-Beaulieu 

Hunwick/Nelson as 7th

If someone is moved, Pilut moves in McCabe’s Slot and McCabe moves into the 3rd Pairing, giving the team 3 decent pairs

For the Expansion Draft but Risto is in the final year of his deal, if his ask for his next contract is going to be prohibitive for the Sabres do you expose him and protect Dahlin, McCabe and Pilut knowing that the Sabres will lose a good D Man to Seattle and then lose Risto to UFA in over a year period. Or protect Risto knowing that they will be a legitimate Cup Contender in the 2021-22 Season? 

 

 

[DarthEbriate]

These are awesome problems to have. I hope for our sakes that these defencemen make our decisions even more difficult in the upcoming seasons.

[SabresBaltimore]

I'm kind of hoping we find a way not to send Pilut back to Rochester. He's earning his place up here. I'm not sure how his contract is setup though. I assume we can't just keep him up? Will there be a point (like 10 games?) where he'll have to clear waivers to get sent back down?

[Taro T]

32 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Pilut stays up until McCabe is back then goes back to Rochester

Tennyson is returned to Rochester as soon as Scandella or Hunwick are ready. 

Nelson stays on IR until either someone else is injured, or he, Beaulieu , Scandella or Hunwick are traded. 

McCabe is signed to a 5 year deal averaging 3.75-5 Million AAV. Not sure how this shakes out

Beaulieu is qualified, however either he or Scandella is moved. 

Pairs are 

Risto-McCabe 

Dahlin-Bogo

Scandella-Beaulieu 

Hunwick/Nelson as 7th

If someone is moved, Pilut moves in McCabe’s Slot and McCabe moves into the 3rd Pairing, giving the team 3 decent pairs

For the Expansion Draft but Risto is in the final year of his deal, if his ask for his next contract is going to be prohibitive for the Sabres do you expose him and protect Dahlin, McCabe and Pilut knowing that the Sabres will lose a good D Man to Seattle and then lose Risto to UFA in over a year period. Or protect Risto knowing that they will be a legitimate Cup Contender in the 2021-22 Season? 

 

 

The expansion draft is the big Q IMHO.  Really would like to see them still have all of Ristolainen, Dahlin, McCabe, & Pilut after it is done.

IF Ristolainen is going to want Eichel-ish money to stay after Dahlin is there (or above that); could seriously consider leaving him exposed.  If he'll take fair value, no way can he be exposed.  Then it comes down to do you risk losing McCabe or Pilut or lose either your 5th best forward or a very high draft pick & another prospect.  (Seattle sliding to '21 for entry still has me peeved.  Sabres were set to have one of the top 5 teams in 2 years but be the only one that only had to find a way to protect a goalie to keep from losing anything really useful before 2024.)  Right now I'd be leaning towards risking losing that 5th F, but who knows.  A lot will change between then and now.

As for this year's line up if healthy, really liking that we actually can have a good conversation where it actually could matter who goes down.  Honestly can't recall the Sabres ever having 9 guys that all have a legit claim to being worthy of being among the 7-8 that do stay.  Still believe I'd risk sending Hunwick to Ra-cha-cha before sending Pilut back down.  $2.25MM for potentially damaged goods is a steep price for a 33 yo.

As for next season, I would be fine with keeping status quo (basically everybody back except Tennyson) unless they can use 1 of these guys to upgrade the C spine.  Whichis kind of shocking as in today's NHL, there's always more change than that.

[Taro T]

15 minutes ago, SabresBaltimore said:

I'm kind of hoping we find a way not to send Pilut back to Rochester. He's earning his place up here. I'm not sure how his contract is setup though. I assume we can't just keep him up? Will there be a point (like 10 games?) where he'll have to clear waivers to get sent back down?

Pilut has too little experience for waivers to be an issue this season.  Which stinks for him because it gives a logic to sending him down before another guy he may be outplaying but only marginally.

[PalmTreeMafia]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

We're 2 weeks shy of 2019.  With 4 of the top 9 on IR we have

Pilut - Ristolainen

Dahlin - Bogosian

Beaulieu - Tenneyson.

When guys start coming back, and they will soon - Hunwick is already on a conditioning assignment & Scandella is skating with the team, how do the pairings shift?

McCabe & Beaulieu are RFA's this off season.  Scandella and Beaulieu along with Hunwick become UFA's the next year with Nelson and Pilut RFA's.  The following year either the 4th or 5th best D-man needs to be exposed to Seattle unless a deal is made behind the scenes and Dahlin, Borgen, and Guhle are RFA's.

How do the pairings shake out when healthy this season?

Do you stay pat with the same D in organization minus Tenneyson for next year?

Does Scandella (or somebody else) get moved as part of a package for a 2C this season or in the off-season?

How do you prepare for Seattle?

Enquiring minds want to know.

I think this is exactly what ends up happening in a couple years. JB makes a deal with Seattle so that they don't choose our 4th best d-man (Pilut or McCabe).

[Doohicksie]

Won't Pilut be expansion draft exempt?

[Taro T]

5 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Won't Pilut be expansion draft exempt?

He was SUPPOSED to be, but then the ####heads talked Bettman into letting them come into the league a year later than originally agreed upon and accordingly he will not be exempt.

[dudacek]

Can’t see any scenario where a first-pairing 27-year-old defenceman is exposed in the expansion draft, even if he openly states he won’t re-sign. Too valuable on the trade market.

If we stock the pond with enough good D we can afford to lose one, or open cap space to sign a replacement. Didn’t the Caps just win the cup after losing Shattenkirk, Alzner and Schmidt in the same off-season?

[Taro T]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

Can’t see any scenario where a first-pairing 27-year-old defenceman is exposed in the expansion draft, even if he openly states he won’t re-sign. Too valuable on the trade market.

If we stock the pond with enough good D we can afford to lose one, or open cap space to sign a replacement. Didn’t the Caps just win the cup after losing Shattenkirk, Alzner and Schmidt in the same off-season?

To the bolded, that is true.  BUT had the ####heads come into the league when they said they would, the Sabres wouldn't lose any valuable skaters.  And the difference between being the one of 32 rather than just 1 of 32 can be as simple as what you got from that 4th D.

 

 

 

 

 

[Sabel79]

We’re at least a year away from worrying about this, IMO.  Rosters change, trades get made, guys get hurt or fall off a cliff or get better.  

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, Sabel79 said:

We’re at least a year away from worrying about this, IMO.  Rosters change, trades get made, guys get hurt or fall off a cliff or get better.  

Worrying about what?  The Seattle draft, yes.  The current D, not a chance.  And how to shape the team to win a Stanley Cup, you can't start working that soon enough.

 

 

 

 

 

[Sabel79]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

Worrying about what?  The Seattle draft, yes.  The current D, not a chance.  And how to shape the team to win a Stanley Cup, you can't start working that soon enough.

 

 

 

 

 

The Seattle draft, specifically.  

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, Sabel79 said:

The Seattle draft, specifically.  

Guarantee you Mr. Botterill is thinking about the Seattle draft today.  If it isn't too early for the guy getting paid to think about it to think about it, why is it too early for those of us that pay his salary (indirectly) to think about it?

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Guarantee you Mr. Botterill is thinking about the Seattle draft today.  If it isn't too early for the guy getting paid to think about it to think about it, why is it too early for those of us that pay his salary (indirectly) to think about it?

IMO, I think we will be begging them to take one of our Dmen. Just don't touch Ullie or 6K"s.

Right now we're developing Dmen like Guhle and Borgen. Over the next couple years it will be Laaksanen and Samuelsson  that will develop and be exempt.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Am I the only one that misread pecking in the thread title?

[Sabel79]

9 hours ago, Taro T said:

Guarantee you Mr. Botterill is thinking about the Seattle draft today.  If it isn't too early for the guy getting paid to think about it to think about it, why is it too early for those of us that pay his salary (indirectly) to think about it?

I agree generally that this is something JBotts is working on now, but as there are so many shoes that need to drop first and so much that is uncertain, looking at the roster today and projecting out an expansion draft list from our point of view now seems a bit like a futile exercise.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

When healthy

1. Risto - 3 years left on K @ 5.4

2. Dahlin - 2 years left on ELC

3. McCabe - on IR week to week - RFA an seasons end

4. Scandella - 1 yr left at $4 mill

5. Bogo - 1 yr left at $5.143 mill

6. Pilut - 1 yr left on ELC

7. Nelson - injured week to week, 1 yr left at 812K

8. Bealieau - RFA currently earning $2.4

9. Hunwick - 1 yr left at $2.25 also age 33. Only Sabre’s D over 28.

10. Tennyson - UFA - my guess is he is only in Buffalo right now because they want Guhle playing top 2 pairing minutes in Roch.

11. Guhle - 1 yr left on ELC

12. Borgen - 2 yrs left on ELC

How does this play out long-term? We have 7 of our top 9 signed already for next year with the other 2 RFA’s.  We also have 3 prospects signed for next season plus Dougherty an RFA.  Jbot doesn’t have to make any moves in this group if he doesn’t want or need extra cap space.  That said if McCabe is re-signed he’ll likely get between 3.5 and 4 per season for at least 4 years.  Jbot won’t worry about Seattle taking on his contract because that likely just creates a roster spot for Samuelson or Borgen.

As to Baloo being re-signed.  I seriously doubt it at this point.  Why spend 2.4 or more on your 8th best D who actually might be your 9th best D depending on the development of Guhle.  I can see Baloo’s right’s being traded this summer or if he wants to stay and the Sabres have an interest, I can see him being non-tendered and then re-signing a 1yr prove it deal at 1.5 or less. If he doesn’t re-sign the cheaper deal, I can see Jbot letting him walk. 

Trading Scandella or Bogo.  This really depends on the development of Guhle or Borgen and our need for Cap space. If McCabe is re-signed, Jbot will have 8 players under contract for $23 to $23.5 mill. (Plus Dahlin’s bonuses).  If management feels Guhle or Borgen are ready for a top 6 role, then you could see Scandella or Bogo traded to create a roster spot and cap space elsewhere, but aI’m not sure it’s necessary.  We have 28 mill committed to 7 forwards (not including Berglund) for next season, with Skinner to re-sign.  Everyone else (Larsson, Girgensons, Erod, Elie)  are all cheap RFA’s ($2 mill or less).  3 prospects, Nylander, Smith and Olofsson, look like they might grab a roster spot from a couple of the RFa’s.  The cap just doesn’t look like an issue right now.

[Cheektorado]

On ‎12‎/‎15‎/‎2018 at 7:31 AM, Sabel79 said:

I agree generally that this is something JBotts is working on now, but as there are so many shoes that need to drop first and so much that is uncertain, looking at the roster today and projecting out an expansion draft list from our point of view now seems a bit like a futile exercise.  

My hope for the 2020-2021 Stanley Cup Champion Buffalo Sabres June 2021 Seattle Expansion Draft is that Seattle has a good forward, defenseman

and goalie to choose from.  I do agree with you that a lot of things will be different 30 month from now.

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

When healthy

1. Risto - 3 years left on K @ 5.4

2. Dahlin - 2 years left on ELC

3. McCabe - on IR week to week - RFA an seasons end

4. Scandella - 1 yr left at $4 mill

5. Bogo - 1 yr left at $5.143 mill

6. Pilut - 1 yr left on ELC

7. Nelson - injured week to week, 1 yr left at 812K

8. Bealieau - RFA currently earning $2.4

9. Hunwick - 1 yr left at $2.25 also age 33. Only Sabre’s D over 28.

10. Tennyson - UFA - my guess is he is only in Buffalo right now because they want Guhle playing top 2 pairing minutes in Roch.

11. Guhle - 1 yr left on ELC

12. Borgen - 2 yrs left on ELC

How does this play out long-term? We have 7 of our top 9 signed already for next year with the other 2 RFA’s.  We also have 3 prospects signed for next season plus Dougherty an RFA.  Jbot doesn’t have to make any moves in this group if he doesn’t want or need extra cap space.  That said if McCabe is re-signed he’ll likely get between 3.5 and 4 per season for at least 4 years.  Jbot won’t worry about Seattle taking on his contract because that likely just creates a roster spot for Samuelson or Borgen.

As to Baloo being re-signed.  I seriously doubt it at this point.  Why spend 2.4 or more on your 8th best D who actually might be your 9th best D depending on the development of Guhle.  I can see Baloo’s right’s being traded this summer or if he wants to stay and the Sabres have an interest, I can see him being non-tendered and then re-signing a 1yr prove it deal at 1.5 or less. If he doesn’t re-sign the cheaper deal, I can see Jbot letting him walk. 

Trading Scandella or Bogo.  This really depends on the development of Guhle or Borgen and our need for Cap space. If McCabe is re-signed, Jbot will have 8 players under contract for $23 to $23.5 mill. (Plus Dahlin’s bonuses).  If management feels Guhle or Borgen are ready for a top 6 role, then you could see Scandella or Bogo traded to create a roster spot and cap space elsewhere, but aI’m not sure it’s necessary.  We have 28 mill committed to 7 forwards (not including Berglund) for next season, with Skinner to re-sign.  Everyone else (Larsson, Girgensons, Erod, Elie)  are all cheap RFA’s ($2 mill or less).  3 prospects, Nylander, Smith and Olofsson, look like they might grab a roster spot from a couple of the RFa’s.  The cap just doesn’t look like an issue right now.

Interesting & well thought out.  Thanks.

While I'd quibble slightly on rankings (today would have McCabe 2 & Dahlin 3; Bogosian 4 & Scandella 5; Beaulieu 7 & Nelson 8; Guhle 10 & Tennyson 11), there aren't any that are wildly out of whack.

I don't expect that Bogosian would get traded, he's one of the leaders and the room seems very cohesive.  I don't expect they want to trade Scandella but could see them needing to include him as a piece to upgrade C if Botterill determines they need that upgrade.  

Trading Scandella would bump Beaulieu back into the top 6 unless Guhle or Borgen make some rapid strides.  I could see Botterill agreeing that Beaulieu isn't worth what he'd be guaranteed in a tender and trying to get him back at a reduced rate.  Really don't have a good feel for whether Nate would re-sign in that case.

Edited December 16, 2018 by Taro T

[Sabres Fan in NS]

That Scandella contract at 4 is a good one.

[nfreeman]

Does anyone have a link to a video of the play on which Beaulieu was injured?  I don't think I've seen a replay.

[Taro T]

19 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Does anyone have a link to a video of the play on which Beaulieu was injured?  I don't think I've seen a replay.

Don't have a link to it, but Wilson drove him hard into the boards and kind of lifted him up as he was driving him into the boards.  Looked quite painful & could have caused injury to anything from his ribs down to his knee.

Play was legal, but quite viscious.  Would expect nothing less from Wilson.