State of the Sabres

[GASabresIUFAN]

31 games in we are:

18-9-4 = 40 pts for 3rd in the Atlantic, 3rd in the East and 6th in the NHL. However our underlying numbers, while playoff worthy are not as good.

We are 12th is GA with 91 goals allowed.

We are 17th in GF with 95 tallies.

Our +4 differential is 14th.

We are also 12th in PK at 81.5% and 18th on the PP at 18.8%.  

We are a stellar 10-3-2 at home and a solid 8-6-2 on the road.

Against the elite teams in the NHL (TB, TOR, Bos, Wash, Nash, Wpg, Colo, SJ and Clg) we are a lousy 3-7-1 including 3 early season blow out loses.  

We are 8-4 in OT/SO games including 3-0 in shoot outs.  The Sabres have also played in 9 other games with a 1 goal differential late in the 3rd.  4 of 9 featured a late empty net goal to seal the victory.  We are 5-4 in these 1 goal games.

Put these categories together and the Sabres are 13-4-4 in one goal games.  5-5 in the other 10 games.

However the Sabres followed their 10 game winning streak with 5 loses (0-3-2) and with the win last night are only 5-3-2 in their last 10.

These are the numbers of a vastly improved team that because of the 10 game win streak is really higher in the standings then they should be.  That said there are lots of positives to take from these team numbers.

1) The Sabres are never out of a hockey games, well almost never.  This is a huge improvement for a team that finished 31st last season.  As fans to be able to watch a game and know the team has a chance to win every night was all any of us were asking from this season before the season started and the Sabres have delivered.

2) The coach and GM are in control of this team, as it should be. PH’s system of active D is working and Jbot has cleansed the locker room and mostly brought in quality players.

3) We have young superstars and some quality depth around them, but we aren’t quite there yet.  Eichel is finally a true superstar.  Jack has 38 pts in 31 games and finally is scoring goals. He is currently tied for 9th in pts, just 1 pt from 7th.  He is ahead of Kane, Stamkos, Duchene, Crosby, Tavares, Giroux and Malkin. Dahlin is 6th in rookie scoring, 2nd in D rookie scoring and a +6.  PH is giving him  more PT. I like Thompson and Mittelstadt also, but they need to add serious body weight and experience to succeed in the NHL. Skinner must feel like he has died and gone to heaven to be playing with a top flight center and it has showed in his game.  Also McCabe’s improvement prior to his injury has also been a key component in the improved defensive performance on both ends of ice. Also nice to have a healthy Bogo.

4) Defensive scoring.  Non-existant last season, now a strength.  Risto leads with 20 pts (3g) YTD, but everyone is adding.  Top 7 plus Pilut now have 14g and 53a for the season. Pilut has 2a and is +2 in his 5 games and frankly shouldn’t return to the minors.

5) Improved goaltending.  If all we knew was 3-0 in shoot outs I’d think we’d be happy, but Hutton and Ullmark have really kept us in nearly every game and have stolen a couple of games for us such as the 2-1 win against TB.  

Now for the bad

1) We are deep in players, but the overall talent level still needs to improve.  Some of this will come from continued improvement from rookie Dahlin, Pilut, Casey and Tage, but that is not enough. With the injuries to Scandella and McCabe (plus Nelson) despite solid play from Pilut, the Sabres still don’t have adequate defense.  Having to bring up Tennyson means we don’t have enough depth.  Admittedly losing 3 of the top 6 D would make any team suffer, but it’s become clear, at least to me that Baloo, Hunwick and Tennyson are not the answer we need.  Scandella’s return will help.  However the Sabres are now 1-3-2 since McCabe got hurt on Dec 4.

The forward group also needs better center play.  Jack is great,  but Casey, ERod, Larsson, Sobotka and Berglund are not getting the job done with any consistency behind him.  Berglund looks to slow to play in today’s NHL. Larsson is developing into a quality 4th line center, but in order to get the most out of Pommers, Okposo, Thompson and Sheary on the middle wings, we must get more from Casey and someone else.

2) Secondary scoring remains a huge issue.  The Sabres have 95 goals, of which the D has 14.  That leaves the forwards with 81 goals.  Jack and his mates, Skinner, Pommers and Reinhart account for 48 of those 81 goals.  Pommers hasn’t registered a pt in the last 7 games since being moved off Jack’s line and only 4 (1g) pts in his last 15 games.  This means the other 10 forwards the Sabres carry have only 33 goals between them.  That’s simply awful.  Sheary and KO have 11 of the 33,  but 5 of their 11 goals have come on the PP.  

3) Injuries are a big problem right now.  Wilson and Hunwick have been out all year.  Scandella, McCabe and recently Nelson have added to the D injury issues and their injuries IMHO were the key reason for the 5 game losing streak.  McCabe week to week injury is a huge problem going forward.  Losing Hutton and Sheary for a few games each also didn’t help.

4) PP and PK help.  We need to better here and I believe part of the issue with both special teams is our poor faceoff %.  This is where trading ROR has hurt the Sabres.  Berglund and Sobotla were supposed to help, but their mediocre play overall has limited their ability to make a real impact here.  Jack leads in FO’s taken and is improved but still is only 46%.  Larsson has taken the 2nd most draws and is at 50%. Sobotka is 3rd in faceoffs taken but is only 46%. Casey is only at 38%. Much easier to score on the PP or stop scoring on the PK if you can get possession from the draw.

Solutions:

1) Talent at center.  While we have a million guys who can play center, we don’t have enough guys who are actually good at it.  Casey may develop into a good 2nd line center, but that is at least another year or two away.   If Jbot makes a move this is where I hope it comes from.  There is no one in Rochester that can help.  Asplund is the only prospect with top 9 NHL Center potential in Roch and he is only just now finding his game in NA.  

I’m not sure how this gets fixed.  We are up against the cap and I don’t know who is available that could help in the FO circle and help KO and Sheary create more offense.  

2) I think Wilson will be a positive when he gets back.  I don’t mind Elie, but he doesn’t exactly add anything except forechecking.  Wilson is a better player then Sobotka, Berglund, Larsson, Girgensons and Elie.  

3) Defense:  I think we have learned that we have 6 guys who can play 20 minutes+ a night when healthy in Risto, Dahlin, Bogo, Scandella, McCabe and Pilut.  This is the good news.  The bad news is that Scandella, McCabe and Bogo have significant injury histories, Pilut and Dahlin are rookies and Risto tends to fade when over worked.  Baloo and Nelson are ok depth players, but have proven they can’t be trusted with more then 15 minutes a game. Hunwick is over the hill.  I’d like to see another D brought in for better insurance then Tennyson.  I also wouldn’t mind seeing if guys like Daughtry and Guhle can step up and help.  

Edited December 12, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[spndnchz]

?

[pi2000]

Nicely done @GASabresIUFAN

To add to that, IMO what we're seeing is the maturation of a young hockey team... it's a process.    

First they need to figure out how to win.    Then they need to figure out how to play that way consistently.     Finally they need to learn how to play with a lead and close out games.   

They seem to have figured out what it takes it win, but still haven't figured out how to bring that level of play consistently period to period.   

I'm not sure they played a full 60min game yet this season... and they certainly haven't figured out how to play with a lead and close out games.         

Edited December 12, 2018 by pi2000

[Brawndo]

Great stuff as always GA.

I’ll add this tidbit from Friedman regarding Skinner

27. Jeff Skinner has three overtime goals in 2018-19, one more than in his previous eight seasons combined. To give you an idea of how completely things have changed for him, by my count, Carolina was outscored 11-4 in overtime with Skinner on the ice the last three years.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Some conclusions:

McCabe’s injury is a serious blow to this team.  Scandella wasn’t great before his injury and with McCabe out long-term, Scandella must return to last year’s form and stay healthy for this team to succeed.  A group of Risto, Dahlin, Scandella, Bogo, Pilut and Baloo is workable until McCabe returns. 

I think this team is a marginally playoff team right now without better center play.  If we maintain the 5-3-2 ratio we’ve played at for the last 10 games in the remaining 51, we’ll walk away with 100 pts for the season and a solid playoff spot.  To maintain this pace we’ll continue to need strong goaltending, better health on D and the kids (Casey and Thompson) to step up.

if I were to do a power ranking of the Sabres, I’d have us 12th.

Edited December 12, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Great stuff as always GA.

I’ll add this tidbit from Friedman regarding Skinner

27. Jeff Skinner has three overtime goals in 2018-19, one more than in his previous eight seasons combined. To give you an idea of how completely things have changed for him, by my count, Carolina was outscored 11-4 in overtime with Skinner on the ice the last three years.

This is completely related to playing with guys like Eichel, Dahlin and Risto who can control and keep the puck.  Skinner is a talented player who has a nose for finding seams in the defense.  Until he got here he had no one to play with who was consistently able to deliver him he puck when he found the seam.  Jack, Sam, Risto and Dahlin have that skill and Skinner is thriving because of it 5 on 5, on the PP and in OT.  The problem is Carolina obviously wasn’t Skinner, but a lack of a top end center to play with him.

[Taro T]

Yes, Pominville hasn't registered a point since getting taken off Eichel's line for the 2nd time, but in that 2nd 3 games stint where he started on Jack's line he only had 1 assist & was WAAAY behind Jack & Skinner on entries.  People should focus on how the line looked with THAT Jason on the line, rather than how it looked with "fresh legs" Jason performing the role of crease tap in / Eichel whisperer.

The Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart line is pretty much scoring 2 gpg.  The D are almost at 0.5 gpg.  That says, the other 3 lines COMBINED just have to find between them a SINGLE gpg to get to 3.5 gpg which should win more than they lose.  I'd rather keep JJS together and hope with additional chemistry they can get to 2.5 gpg, than go back to the JJJ line hoping it can get 1.5 gpg and expecting Reinhart alone to boost one of the other lines by 0.5 gpg.

Keep the Girgensons-Larsson-Berglund line together as much as possible lowering the other team's top line's output and getting 0.2 gpg from them.

Housley only needs to find some combination of the other 8 skaters for 6 slots that can get 0.8 gpg.  Ideally, Botterill could help him with that by finding a 2C.

And, absolutely, McCabe is a huge loss (probably the only 2 losses that would hurt more are Eichel & Hutton.  IMHO, his loss is bigger than Ristolainen's would be by a smidge).  But we do know now that the team has 6 D that can play 2nd pairing roles (evenif they aren't all there/playing to that level yet) & 2 guys that can play 3rd pairing roles.  The Sabres have 4 of their top 9 D (2, 4/5, 7/8, & 9) out and are still playing in 1 goal games.  

[bob_sauve28]

What is McCabe's status? Long term injury? 

[Georgia Blizzard]

Great summary

Mittelstadt's (lack) of development and McCabe's injury are the two biggest issues because we don't have a fix for either of those on roster or in Rochester

Has anyone seen any progression from Mittelstadt during the course of the year -- I've seen it with Tage, Dahlin ?  Would it make sense to send him to Roch for 5-10 games ?  

How long is McCabe out ?

 

[nfreeman]

Excellent post GA.  I would just add, under the "Good" section, that Dahlin looks like he's going to be a superstar pretty soon and that Risto is playing the best hockey of his career and is pretty close to a star.

[Doohicksie]

27 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

2) I think Wilson will be a positive when he gets back.  I don’t mind Elie, but he doesn’t exactly add anything except forechecking.  Wilson is a better player then Sobotka, Berglund, Larsson, Girgensons and Elie.  

Not sure Wilson is better than all those guys.  Sobotka and Elie, certainly.  The rest?  Ehhhhh....  I'd have to see Wilson play on this team to make that call.

[Doohicksie]

37 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

What is McCabe's status? Long term injury? 

Week to week I thought.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, Doohickie said:

Not sure Wilson is better than all those guys.  Sobotka and Elie, certainly.  The rest?  Ehhhhh....  I'd have to see Wilson play on this team to make that call.

A fair statement but.....

Last season

player A 6-8-14 in 49 games

player B 4-13 17 in 80 games

player C 7-8 15 in 71 games

guess who is who. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

15 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Week to week I thought.

He is week to week with an undisclosed upper-body injury and “don’t expect him to play anytime soon” according to the Sabres.com twitter feed.  Sounds suspiciously like a concussion. 

On the good news from Vogl in the Athletic reports today that both Nelson and McCabe are skating. This doesn’t mean either will be back soon, but it is a positive.

Edited December 12, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN
New info.

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This is completely related to playing with guys like Eichel, Dahlin and Risto who can control and keep the puck.  Skinner is a talented player who has a nose for finding seams in the defense.  Until he got here he had no one to play with who was consistently able to deliver him he puck when he found the seam.  Jack, Sam, Risto and Dahlin have that skill and Skinner is thriving because of it 5 on 5, on the PP and in OT.  The problem is Carolina obviously wasn’t Skinner, but a lack of a top end center to play with him.

Yep, and I’m sure Botterill will mention this during contract negotiations.

And Carolina created a bigger problem for themselves as per the Insiders they are desperately searching for Top 6 Scoring. 

[mjd1001]

We'd all LIKE more secondary scoring, but to be honest, the Sabres aren't that bad in that area.  

What do you consider Secondary scoring?  If you look at the league and take away the top 4 goal scorers on each team (I figured 4 because the Sabres  first lineis  basically is Eichel, Skinner, Pomminstein, and Reinhart....all spending time on the first line and their top 4 goal scorers). Take away those 4 players and how many goals does the rest of the team have so far this season? 47 goals total.

 

How many teams in the league now have more than 50 goals from their non-top-4?  Tampa, Ottawa, Detroit, Toronto, Vegas, Nashville, Washington, and Colorado.  8 teams total.

How many teams have less than 45 from their non-top-4?  Boston, Edmonton, Colorado, Carolina, St. Louis, L.A. and Chicago.  7 teams total

How many teams have 45-50 from their non-top-4?  Everyone else. 16 teams including the Sabres.

 

In terms of 'secondary scoring' The Sabres are pretty much right in the middle. 

[Carmel Corn]

10 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

We'd all LIKE more secondary scoring, but to be honest, the Sabres aren't that bad in that area.  

What do you consider Secondary scoring?  If you look at the league and take away the top 4 goal scorers on each team (I figured 4 because the Sabres  first lineis  basically is Eichel, Skinner, Pomminstein, and Reinhart....all spending time on the first line and their top 4 goal scorers). Take away those 4 players and how many goals does the rest of the team have so far this season? 47 goals total.

 

How many teams in the league now have more than 50 goals from their non-top-4?  Tampa, Ottawa, Detroit, Toronto, Vegas, Nashville, Washington, and Colorado.  8 teams total.

How many teams have less than 45 from their non-top-4?  Boston, Edmonton, Colorado, Carolina, St. Louis, L.A. and Chicago.  7 teams total

How many teams have 45-50 from their non-top-4?  Everyone else. 16 teams including the Sabres.

 

In terms of 'secondary scoring' The Sabres are pretty much right in the middle. 

Interesting research thanks!  I would be curious if you have also looked at it a different way.  What percentage of total goals does each team's top 4 players represent?  For example, if the Sabres top 4 goal scorers account for 75% of the total team goals, where would that 75% fall in comparison to other teams?  I could easily be wrong, but I would not be surprised if the Sabres top 4% is higher than the middle of the pack like your other analysis....but again I could be wrong.

[GASabresIUFAN]

35 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

 

 

In terms of 'secondary scoring' The Sabres are pretty much right in the middle. 

Middle of the road isn't really good enough.  Come playoff time we need to be at least in the upper 1/3 of the NHL in secondary scoring if we are ever going to make this rebuild work.

[calti]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

31 games in we are:

18-9-4 = 40 pts for 3rd in the Atlantic, 3rd in the East and 6th in the NHL. However our underlying numbers, while playoff worthy are not as good.

We are 12th is GA with 91 goals allowed.

We are 17th in GF with 95 tallies.

Our +4 differential is 14th.

We are also 12th in PK at 81.5% and 18th on the PP at 18.8%.  

We are a stellar 10-3-2 at home and a solid 8-6-2 on the road.

Against the elite teams in the NHL (TB, TOR, Bos, Wash, Nash, Wpg, Colo, SJ and Clg) we are a lousy 3-7-1 including 3 early season blow out loses.  

We are 8-4 in OT/SO games including 3-0 in shoot outs.  The Sabres have also played in 9 other games with a 1 goal differential late in the 3rd.  4 of 9 featured a late empty net goal to seal the victory.  We are 5-4 in these 1 goal games.

Put these categories together and the Sabres are 13-4-4 in one goal games.  5-5 in the other 10 games.

However the Sabres followed their 10 game winning streak with 5 loses (0-3-2) and with the win last night are only 5-3-2 in their last 10.

These are the numbers of a vastly improved team that because of the 10 game win streak is really higher in the standings then they should be.  That said there are lots of positives to take from these team numbers.

1) The Sabres are never out of a hockey games, well almost never.  This is a huge improvement for a team that finished 31st last season.  As fans to be able to watch a game and know the team has a chance to win every night was all any of us were asking from this season before the season started and the Sabres have delivered.

2) The coach and GM are in control of this team, as it should be. PH’s system of active D is working and Jbot has cleansed the locker room and mostly brought in quality players.

3) We have young superstars and some quality depth around them, but we aren’t quite there yet.  Eichel is finally a true superstar.  Jack has 38 pts in 31 games and finally is scoring goals. He is currently tied for 9th in pts, just 1 pt from 7th.  He is ahead of Kane, Stamkos, Duchene, Crosby, Tavares, Giroux and Malkin. Dahlin is 6th in rookie scoring, 2nd in D rookie scoring and a +6.  PH is giving him  more PT. I like Thompson and Mittelstadt also, but they need to add serious body weight and experience to succeed in the NHL. Skinner must feel like he has died and gone to heaven to be playing with a top flight center and it has showed in his game.  Also McCabe’s improvement prior to his injury has also been a key component in the improved defensive performance on both ends of ice. Also nice to have a healthy Bogo.

4) Defensive scoring.  Non-existant last season, now a strength.  Risto leads with 20 pts (3g) YTD, but everyone is adding.  Top 7 plus Pilut now have 14g and 53a for the season. Pilut has 2a and is +2 in his 5 games and frankly shouldn’t return to the minors.

5) Improved goaltending.  If all we knew was 3-0 in shoot outs I’d think we’d be happy, but Hutton and Ullmark have really kept us in nearly every game and have stolen a couple of games for us such as the 2-1 win against TB.  

Now for the bad

1) We are deep in players, but the overall talent level still needs to improve.  Some of this will come from continued improvement from rookie Dahlin, Pilut, Casey and Tage, but that is not enough. With the injuries to Scandella and McCabe (plus Nelson) despite solid play from Pilut, the Sabres still don’t have adequate defense.  Having to bring up Tennyson means we don’t have enough depth.  Admittedly losing 3 of the top 6 D would make any team suffer, but it’s become clear, at least to me that Baloo, Hunwick and Tennyson are not the answer we need.  Scandella’s return will help.  However the Sabres are now 1-3-2 since McCabe got hurt on Dec 4.

The forward group also needs better center play.  Jack is great,  but Casey, ERod, Larsson, Sobotka and Berglund are not getting the job done with any consistency behind him.  Berglund looks to slow to play in today’s NHL. Larsson is developing into a quality 4th line center, but in order to get the most out of Pommers, Okposo, Thompson and Sheary on the middle wings, we must get more from Casey and someone else.

2) Secondary scoring remains a huge issue.  The Sabres have 95 goals, of which the D has 14.  That leaves the forwards with 81 goals.  Jack and his mates, Skinner, Pommers and Reinhart account for 48 of those 81 goals.  Pommers hasn’t registered a pt in the last 7 games since being moved off Jack’s line and only 4 (1g) pts in his last 15 games.  This means the other 10 forwards the Sabres carry have only 33 goals between them.  That’s simply awful.  Sheary and KO have 11 of the 33,  but 5 of their 11 goals have come on the PP.  

3) Injuries are a big problem right now.  Wilson and Hunwick have been out all year.  Scandella, McCabe and recently Nelson have added to the D injury issues and their injuries IMHO were the key reason for the 5 game losing streak.  McCabe week to week injury is a huge problem going forward.  Losing Hutton and Sheary for a few games each also didn’t help.

4) PP and PK help.  We need to better here and I believe part of the issue with both special teams is our poor faceoff %.  This is where trading ROR has hurt the Sabres.  Berglund and Sobotla were supposed to help, but their mediocre play overall has limited their ability to make a real impact here.  Jack leads in FO’s taken and is improved but still is only 46%.  Larsson has taken the 2nd most draws and is at 50%. Sobotka is 3rd in faceoffs taken but is only 46%. Casey is only at 38%. Much easier to score on the PP or stop scoring on the PK if you can get possession from the draw.

Solutions:

1) Talent at center.  While we have a million guys who can play center, we don’t have enough guys who are actually good at it.  Casey may develop into a good 2nd line center, but that is at least another year or two away.   If Jbot makes a move this is where I hope it comes from.  There is no one in Rochester that can help.  Asplund is the only prospect with top 9 NHL Center potential in Roch and he is only just now finding his game in NA.  

I’m not sure how this gets fixed.  We are up against the cap and I don’t know who is available that could help in the FO circle and help KO and Sheary create more offense.  

2) I think Wilson will be a positive when he gets back.  I don’t mind Elie, but he doesn’t exactly add anything except forechecking.  Wilson is a better player then Sobotka, Berglund, Larsson, Girgensons and Elie.  

3) Defense:  I think we have learned that we have 6 guys who can play 20 minutes+ a night when healthy in Risto, Dahlin, Bogo, Scandella, McCabe and Pilut.  This is the good news.  The bad news is that Scandella, McCabe and Bogo have significant injury histories, Pilut and Dahlin are rookies and Risto tends to fade when over worked.  Baloo and Nelson are ok depth players, but have proven they can’t be trusted with more then 15 minutes a game. Hunwick is over the hill.  I’d like to see another D brought in for better insurance then Tennyson.  I also wouldn’t mind seeing if guys like Daughtry and Guhle can step up and help.  

awesome evaluation. helpful.

[irregularly irregular]

Several solid takes from an assortment of knowledgeable participants. A special thanks to GA for the thoughtful and well written OP.

It's wonderful to open up threads like this and see all of the great hockey know-how. I truly enjoy these types of conversations. 

 

[dudacek]

Lots of good stuff here.

To me, a good 2nd line centre automatically makes every one of Sheary, KO, Casey, Tage and maybe Pominville better. Don’t think we have the resources to acquire one and we might be better off, from an asset management perspective, waiting for Casey to get it.

I think all the defence needs is Rasmus to fulfill his destiny. Risto matches up very well with the league’s #2 defencemen. Bogo McCabe and Scandella can all play on a second pair. Nelson and Beaulieu are as good as any 6/7 unit in the league and Pilut is probably better than both of them.

Hunwick is probably a better 9 than Tennyson and we haven’t even got to Guhle and Borgen. If we can turn Scandella and futures into Parayko sure, make a move, 

[MattPie]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Some conclusions:

McCabe’s injury is a serious blow to this team.  Scandella wasn’t great before his injury and with McCabe out long-term, Scandella must return to last year’s form and stay healthy for this team to succeed.  A group of Risto, Dahlin, Scandella, Bogo, Pilut and Baloo is workable until McCabe returns. 

I think this team is a marginally playoff team right now without better center play.  If we maintain the 5-3-2 ratio we’ve played at for the last 10 games in the remaining 51, we’ll walk away with 100 pts for the season and a solid playoff spot.  To maintain this pace we’ll continue to need strong goaltending, better health on D and the kids (Casey and Thompson) to step up.

if I were to do a power ranking of the Sabres, I’d have us 12th.

That's optimistic until proven otherwise. The Sabres were not playing at that pace before the winning streak, it remains to be seen if they'll be suddenly better now. Actually, if they'd played 12 points per 10 games all season, they'd be in a playoff spot regardless.

[Taro T]

27 minutes ago, MattPie said:

That's optimistic until proven otherwise. The Sabres were not playing at that pace before the winning streak, it remains to be seen if they'll be suddenly better now. Actually, if they'd played 12 points per 10 games all season, they'd be in a playoff spot regardless.

Umm, they pretty much have done that.

6-4-0 =12

6-2-2 = 14

5-3-2 =12

1-0-0 => ???

 

 

[MattPie]

28 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Umm, they pretty much have done that.

6-4-0 =12

6-2-2 = 14

5-3-2 =12

1-0-0 => ???

 

 

That breaks up the streak. I'm not opposed to that view, but you can also look at it as:

1 thru 15: 80-something pace

10 wins

1-3-2

These last five games make me think games 1-15 were the "real" team. I hope I'm wrong.

[inkman]

10 hours ago, MattPie said:

That breaks up the streak. I'm not opposed to that view, but you can also look at it as:

1 thru 15: 80-something pace

10 wins

1-3-2

These last five games make me think games 1-15 were the "real" team. I hope I'm wrong.

The metrics have us somewhere between the 12th and 17th best team in the league. I think it's pretty accurate. Everyone got all full of themselves during the streak even though the stats never suggested they were anything other than an above average team.

The streak was fun, Sabres fans needed it. Unfortunately, everyone thought that was the new Sabres without understanding what they were witnessing. Hot goalies, timely scoring, puck luck and some mediocre competition. Back to reality. 

Edited December 13, 2018 by inkman