FIRST PLACE!

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

25 games ago this team was finishing off a 5-13 run.

Not saying it will happen, but it’s foolish to think it can’t.

Seeing that we only played 25 games I am assuming you are referring to last season finish?

Not saying it "can't" happen because it could.

Will say though that was not "this team".

AAAAHHHHHHH.....it's a new day (and new team).

GO SABRES

[GASabresIUFAN]

48 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I could definitely see them regressing to a point where they miss. They're going to slump like all teams do, and it's possible that the green-ness of this team makes it harder for them to get out of it. I'm not saying that this is supremely likely, but it could happen. If they don't clean up in front of the net and Jeff gets cold, or Jack gets hurt, there will be problems on the horizon

It would take some serious misfortune.  The goaltending this season is good enough to keep us in every game. That alone should keep us earning at least 1 pt per game the rest of the way.  Add continued improvement from the 3 news kids (Casey, Tage and Ras) with depth in the organization like Pilut, Olofsson, Smith and Nylander and I think you have a team that can weather some even serious injuries.  The other good news is that we have ammo Jbot can use to fill slots if we are contending but suffer a key injury or two late in the year.  

 

19 minutes ago, dudacek said:

25 games ago this team was finishing off a 5-13 run.

Not saying it will happen, but it’s foolish to think it can’t.

Two major differences.  Dahlin and good goaltending.  While it could happen, it’s unlikely.

[Mig_22]

Most preseason predictions put them at 82-87 points.   "regresssion to the mean" is often misunderstood to mean that a result will get back to an original prediction.  More accurately, it is that results will tend to the same average as expected going forward and thus pull the mean lower.   So GASabres point is quite right.  We can, without taking our current form into account, reasonably expect an 85 point pace for the rest of the year (~59 points in 57 games) which is 95 total.    Sure we could miss the post-season.

 

Edit:  I don't think that will happen because I didn't buy into the preseason numbers and had their total at 92-93.  

Edited November 29, 2018 by Mig_22

[Doohicksie]

21 minutes ago, Weave said:

 To date Buffalo had won despite not putting up 60 minute (and in some cases 40 minute) games.  They have managed to get positive reinforcement out of a bad habit.  Good for them.  Points are points.  But I cannot see this sustaining when the top half of the league starts putting their playoff faces on.

No team plays a full 60 minutes, game in, game out.  It's a myth.  That's why there are swings in momentum in virtually every game.  I think the Sabres have done a pretty good job of game management in close games.  I wish they were better at game management, but it's hard to argue with success.

[Mig_22]

8 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

No team plays a full 60 minutes, game in, game out.  It's a myth.  That's why there are swings in momentum in virtually every game.  I think the Sabres have done a pretty good job of game management in close games.  I wish they were better at game management, but it's hard to argue with success.

Exactly.  I hate to use Toronto as an example but in their dismantling of San Jose last night, this is Micah McCurdy's HockeyViz.com  chart of the game.  San Jose had the better of the play for chunks of the game even while getting waxed.  

 

I think it's been a strength of the Sabres that their bad stretches have been shorter than their good stretches.

 

 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Mig_22 said:

Exactly.  I hate to use Toronto as an example but in their dismantling of San Jose last night, this is Micah McCurdy's HockeyViz.com  chart of the game.  San Jose had the better of the play for chunks of the game even while getting waxed.  

 

I think it's been a strength of the Sabres that their bad stretches have been shorter than their good stretches.

 

 

I think the Leafs are talented enough to take advantage of their opportunities more than an average team. It’s relatively easy for them to be “outplayed” but not outscored.

Its exciting to see signs that we might be becoming like that.

[GASabresIUFAN]

The funny thing about he discussion of regressing to the mean doesn’t take into account that this team actually might be getting better even if they slump once or twice  over the course of this long season.

When I looked at the point projections I did to start the season and the pace we are playing at, we really don’t have many players besides McCabe, Pommers and Skinner out performing their conservative projections. In fact most are at or slightly below their scoring expectation.

Jack is only shooting 5% YTD. Part of that is Skinner, but at some point Jack will start scoring.  With only 5 goals YTD,  Jack is only projecting at 16 for the full season.  No way a healthy Jack finishes under 20.  If Jack gets back to his career average of .35 g/gp that’s 20 more goals the rest of the way.  

Samson also will likely start scoring more.  Sam is on a 10 goal pace.  While his assists continue to grow, he’ll get it going also and revert his .27/g/gp for his career.  That will get him back to nearly 20 goals for the season.

Casey has been getting better as the season has progressed.  He had 1 pt in his first 9 games this season, but 7 pts (4 goals) in the next 16 games.  If he keeps up this pace for the rest of the season he’ll add another 14-15 goals to his scoresheet.  If he continues to show improvement these numbers should increase as well. In fact I believe he’ll be around 40 pts by season’s end with numbers that look very similar to Samson’s rookie year.

Also Berglund and Thompson are likely to score st a higher rate as this season progresses. 

When these 5 start scoring goals, coupled with Skinner and Sheary, I suspect that many of these 3-2 games will start to become 4-2 and 5-2 scorers in our favor as we become less top heavy.

I’m thinking conservatively we’ll see at least 30 wins the rest of the way.  Something like 30-20-7.

[Mig_22]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The funny thing about he discussion of regressing to the mean doesn’t take into account that this team actually might be getting better even if they slump once or twice  over the course of this long season.

 

Great point.  Most of the uses (and misuses) of the concept tend to be in the negative.

[pi2000]

I think the only chance they have of missing the playoffs is the "I" word.... 

[Weave]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

No team plays a full 60 minutes, game in, game out.  It's a myth.  That's why there are swings in momentum in virtually every game.  I think the Sabres have done a pretty good job of game management in close games.  I wish they were better at game management, but it's hard to argue with success.

I think the end result is creating amnesia regarding the actual gameplay.  A majority chunk of the games in the win streak had the ivce pretty well tilted to Buffalo’s detriment for big chunks of the game.  It wasn’t just the usual expected ebb and flow.

Nonetheless,  they’ve shown terrific gumption and skill to overcome that of late.  My concern is when the opponents start playing with elevated gumption as well.

[Marions Piazza]

I think this can end any debate as to why we are winning games. Worst in the NHL at giving up quality scoring chances and expected goals agains, yet, #1 in slot save %. Hutton and Ullmark are monsters this year in the net

[Weave]

1 minute ago, pi2000 said:

I think the only chance they have of missing the playoffs is the "I" word.... 

This is probably correct 

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, Weave said:

I think the end result is creating amnesia regarding the actual gameplay.  A majority chunk of the games in the win streak had the ivce pretty well tilted to Buffalo’s detriment for big chunks of the game.  It wasn’t just the usual expected ebb and flow.

Nonetheless,  they’ve shown terrific gumption and skill to overcome that of late.  My concern is when the opponents start playing with elevated gumption as well.

I think they played stronger full hockey games the ten before the streak than the ten during the streak. 

Which I think is good news, not bad.

[Weave]

Just now, Marions Piazza said:

I think this can end any debate as to why we are winning games. Worst in the NHL at giving up quality scoring chances and expected goals agains, yet, #1 in slot save %. Hutton and Ullmark are monsters this year in the net

And that chart illustrates the point I am trying to make re: gameplay 

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

I think they played stronger full hockey games the ten before the streak than the ten during the streak. 

Which I think is good news, not bad.

This matches what my eyes tell me.  And I agree it is good news overall, but they’ll need to adjust as the season gets to grinding.

[dudacek]

When of the most intriguing elements of this stretch is that Jeff Skinner is the only player who seems to be playing above his head, at least statistically.

Hutton’s numbers are in line with previous. Risto, Jack and Sam and Conor are on their usual paces, the middle pair way down in goals. ERod, Sobotka, Girgensons, Larsson are themselves. Hot start notwithstanding, Pommers hasn’t been crucial to the streak.Scandella, Okposo and Berglund are behind their paces.

As a fourth-year D, McCabe’s jump isn’t unusual. Beaulieu wasn’t expected to be as awful as he was last year. Nelson is Nelson. I guess Bogosian’s presence in the lineup is a bonus.

And then you’ve got the kids - Ullmark, Mittelstadt, Thompson and Dahlin - all of whom have been improving steadily, but are doing nothing surprising.

Certainly health has played a role and so have bounces. But I don’t think it’s a stretch to see this team putting up another 60 points over the rest of the season.

Edited November 29, 2018 by dudacek

[Marions Piazza]

8 minutes ago, Weave said:

And that chart illustrates the point I am trying to make re: gameplay 

This matches what my eyes tell me.  And I agree it is good news overall, but they’ll need to adjust as the season gets to grinding.

they are bound to clean up the play and stop letting the quality scoring chances happen. Eichel is bound to start putting more pucks in the net. i guess i can't see some collapse and long losing streaks

[dudacek]

19 minutes ago, Weave said:

I think the end result is creating amnesia regarding the actual gameplay.  A majority chunk of the games in the win streak had the ivce pretty well tilted to Buffalo’s detriment for big chunks of the game.  It wasn’t just the usual expected ebb and flow.

Nonetheless,  they’ve shown terrific gumption and skill to overcome that of late.  My concern is when the opponents start playing with elevated gumption as well.

I mostly agree, I just have trouble when people interpret your second sentence as the Sabres have been outplayed in the majority of games. The Sabres have also tilted the ice to their opponent’s detriment for big chunks of games as well.

Take the Canucks game where the Canucks basically took over in the second. The Sabres then took it back, dominating the third and killing two penalties in OT. Chunks have been frequently tilted. Games have not.

Basically, they’ve been in every game and have amazingly somehow managed to win them all.

Edited November 29, 2018 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

19 minutes ago, dudacek said:

When of the most intriguing elements of this stretch is that Jeff Skinner is the only player who seems to be playing above his head, at least statistically.

Hutton’s numbers are in line with previous. Risto, Jack and Sam and Conor are on their usual paces, the middle pair way down in goals. ERod, Sobotka, Girgensons, Larsson are themselves. Hot start notwithstanding, Pommers hasn’t been crucial to the streak.Scandella, Okposo and Berglund are behind their paces.

As a fourth-year D, McCabe’s jump isn’t unusual. Beaulieu wasn’t expected to be as awful as he was last year. Nelson is Nelson. I guess Bogosian’s presence in the lineup is a bonus.

And then you’ve got the kids - Ullmark, Mittelstadt, Thompson and Dahlin - all of whom have been improving steadily, but are doing nothing surprising.

Certainly health has played a role and so have bounces. But I do t think it’s a stretch to see this team putting up another 60 points over the rest of the season.

I completely disagree.  As I pointed out above, Jack, Sam and Berglund are way below their scoring paces for their careers.  Sam and Jack will begin to get to their career averages.  When they do these tight games will change to bigger margins especially with the kids improving. 

If they just play NHL .500 hockey the rest of the way that’s 57 pts.  I don’t they’ll be very hard pressed to get to 60 pts at all.  

The worst teams in the East are earning .92 pts a game.  Is it really a stretch to think that the Sabres will earn 1.05 pts per game the rest of the way, especially when the pre-season projections had us at 1 to 1.10 per game for the season?

Edited November 29, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

24 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I completely disagree.  As I pointed out above, Jack, Sam and Berglund are way below their scoring paces for their careers.  Sam and Jack will begin to get to their career averages.  When they do these tight games will change to bigger margins especially with the kids improving. 

If they just play NHL .500 hockey the rest of the way that’s 57 pts.  I don’t they’ll be very hard pressed to get to 60 pts at all.  

The worst teams in the East are earning .92 pts a game.  Is it really a stretch to think that the Sabres will earn 1.05 pts per game the rest of the way, especially when the pre-season projections had us at 1 to 1.10 per game for the season?

No... you completely agree.

For some reason, my keyboard is having issues with n’

I DON’T think it’s a stretch. ?

My post might make more sense now.

Edited November 29, 2018 by dudacek

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

25 games ago this team's laundry was finishing off a 5-13 run.

Not saying it will happen, but it’s foolish to think it can’t.

FTFY. ;)

2 new top 2 goalies.

1 new D-man & 2 healthy that had been out long stretches.

6+ new F's and 2 apparently fully healthy that had major injuries prior to last season.

1 full year of experience for the head coach & a new on-bench assistant coach.

The laundry's the same.  The rest is new enough to say it is a different team.

This is not your father's Oldsmobile. :p  (Being Canadian, that reference possibly went over your head.  If so, apologies.)

[Sabres Fan in NS]

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

FTFY. ?

2 new top 2 goalies.

1 new D-man & 2 healthy that had been out long stretches.

6+ new F's and 2 apparently fully healthy that had major injuries prior to last season.

1 full year of experience for the head coach & a new on-bench assistant coach.

The laundry's the same.  The rest is new enough to say it is a different team.

This is not your father's Oldsmobile. ?  (Being Canadian, that reference possibly went over your head.  If so, apologies.)

Not speaking for duda here, but Canada is part of North America, so we know all about North American cars and sayings about them ... (insert winkie - winkie thingie here)

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

Not speaking for duda here, but Canada is part of North America, so we know all about North American cars and sayings about them ... (insert winkie - winkie thingie here)

Was HOPING (more or less against hope) that the Oldsmobile's demise wasn't furthered along by that imbecilic ad campaign also being run in Canuckistan.

Would love to have been a fly on the wall when that decision was made.  "Hey boss, got a great idea to boost sales.  Rather than stop making boats kids don't want (and by "kids" I refer to anyone younger than PA ;)), let's just alienate their parents who do want to drive land boats but continue making cars kids won't buy."  "Sounds great.  What could possibly go wrong?.  Let's run with that."

[Mig_22]

3 hours ago, Marions Piazza said:

I think this can end any debate as to why we are winning games. Worst in the NHL at giving up quality scoring chances and expected goals agains, yet, #1 in slot save %. Hutton and Ullmark are monsters this year in the net

Maybe there is a small debate left.  ?  The stats are for the 10 games of the streak, not the season.  During that time, the Expected Goals For was pretty good (don't have a number handy, sorry).  Also, when you look over the season, their xG % (For vs Against) is mid-pack in the league 5v5 and Hutton's overall numbers are about 12th-15th in the league.  I'd say we're winning games for a whole lot of reasons including both timely goaltending and a bit of puck luck. 

[Hoss]

While I’m still pessimistic it is worth noting that the east’s top teams and the teams on the bubble quickly separated recently. There was a point not too long ago where everyone was jumbled and a two/three game stretch could’ve flipped everything but now it’ll take a couple weeks to fall out from the top.

There are ups and downs ahead, but I hope the small cushion created recently is enough to build confidence for a ride to the playoffs even if it’s as the last team in.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

24 minutes ago, Hoss said:

While I’m still pessimistic it is worth noting that the east’s top teams and the teams on the bubble quickly separated recently. There was a point not too long ago where everyone was jumbled and a two/three game stretch could’ve flipped everything but now it’ll take a couple weeks to fall out from the top.

There are ups and downs ahead, but I hope the small cushion created recently is enough to build confidence for a ride to the playoffs even if it’s as the last team in.

I was thinking some of the same.

It seemed as if every time I looked at the standings we were moving up slowly but, it also seemed like teams behind us were catching up even though we hadn't lost (Caps were one team). They weren't really but it seemed like it.