Hoss Posted November 26, 2018 Report Posted November 26, 2018 5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said: History shows that rental players rarely work out. Things are great right now, and given Vegas last year I guess anything's possible but you don't build a dynasty by trading away your future. Nobody is advocating for "trading away your future." You don't need to do that to acquire good players who help you win games. Some light and quick (so likely missing a couple) research on Cup winners since the last lockout... Only one team had all first and second round picks intact in the year before, year of and year after their cup championship. That was the 2010 Blackhawks. These are the trades involving first and second round picks from the three years surrounding (before, during, after) their Stanley Cup runs: Carolina 2006 - Mark Recchi 2007 2nd at 2006 Anaheim 2007 - Jeff Friesen 2006 2nd NOT ON CUP - Chris Pronger 2007 1st NOT DEADLINE - Randy Carlyle 2007 2nd NOT DEADLINE - Chris Pronger 2008 1st NOT DEADLINE - Chris Pronger 2008 2nd NOT DEADLINE Detroit 2008 - Todd Bertuzzi 2007 2nd NOT ON CUP - Brad Stuart 2008 2nd Pittsburgh 2009 - Marian Hossa, Pascal Dupuis 2008 1st - Hal Gill 2008 2nd Chicago 2010 - NONE Boston 2011 - Nathan Horton, Gregory Campbell 2010 1st NOT DEADLINE - Daniel Paille 2010 3rd - Tomas Kaberle 2011 1st Los Angeles 2012 - Dustin Penner 2011 1st - Jeff Carter 2013 1st Chicago 2013 - Johnny Oduya 2013 1st Los Angeles 2014 - Jeff Carter 2013 1st - Robyn Regehr 2014 2nd - Robyn Regehr 2015 2nd Chicago 2015 - David Rundblad 2014 2nd - Antroine Vermette 2015 1st - Kimmo Timonen 2015 2nd - Kimmo Timonen 2016 2nd Pittsburgh 2016 - David Perron 2015 1st NOT ON CUP - Phil Kessel 2016 1st NOT DEADLINE - Ryan Reaves 2017 2nd NOT DEADLINE NOT ON CUP - Ron Hainsey 2017 2nd Pittsburgh 2017 - Phil Kessel 2016 1st NOT DEADLINE - Danniel Winnik 2016 2nd NOT DEADLINE - Ryan Reaves 2017 2nd NOT DEADLINE NOT ON CUP - Ron Hainsey 2017 2nd Capitals 2018 - Lars Eller 2017 2nd NOT DEADLINE - Kevin Shattenkirk 2017 1st NOT ON CUP - Lars Eller 2018 2nd NOT DEADLINE So that's 25 separate trades (by my count) involving first and second rounders in those years around cup runs. Of those 25: - 13 were for players at the deadline that were on the Cup champion team - 4 were players at the deadline that did NOT end up on the Cup winning team - 2 not at the deadline or on the Cup roster - 5 were deals not at the deadline but still on the Cup winner - 1 was a coach trade (Randy Carlyle) This might have been a useless exercise for my own health but draw your own conclusions here. 1 Quote
Scottysabres Posted November 26, 2018 Report Posted November 26, 2018 6 minutes ago, Hoss said: Nobody is advocating for "trading away your future." You don't need to do that to acquire good players who help you win games. Some light and quick (so likely missing a couple) research on Cup winners since the last lockout... Only one team had all first and second round picks intact in the year before, year of and year after their cup championship. That was the 2010 Blackhawks. These are the trades involving first and second round picks from the three years surrounding (before, during, after) their Stanley Cup runs: Carolina 2006 - Mark Recchi 2007 2nd at 2006 Anaheim 2007 - Jeff Friesen 2006 2nd NOT ON CUP - Chris Pronger 2007 1st NOT DEADLINE - Randy Carlyle 2007 2nd NOT DEADLINE - Chris Pronger 2008 1st NOT DEADLINE - Chris Pronger 2008 2nd NOT DEADLINE Detroit 2008 - Todd Bertuzzi 2007 2nd NOT ON CUP - Brad Stuart 2008 2nd Pittsburgh 2009 - Marian Hossa, Pascal Dupuis 2008 1st - Hal Gill 2008 2nd Chicago 2010 - NONE Boston 2011 - Nathan Horton, Gregory Campbell 2010 1st NOT DEADLINE - Daniel Paille 2010 3rd - Tomas Kaberle 2011 1st Los Angeles 2012 - Dustin Penner 2011 1st - Jeff Carter 2013 1st Chicago 2013 - Johnny Oduya 2013 1st Los Angeles 2014 - Jeff Carter 2013 1st - Robyn Regehr 2014 2nd - Robyn Regehr 2015 2nd Chicago 2015 - David Rundblad 2014 2nd - Antroine Vermette 2015 1st - Kimmo Timonen 2015 2nd - Kimmo Timonen 2016 2nd Pittsburgh 2016 - David Perron 2015 1st NOT ON CUP - Phil Kessel 2016 1st NOT DEADLINE - Ryan Reaves 2017 2nd NOT DEADLINE NOT ON CUP - Ron Hainsey 2017 2nd Pittsburgh 2017 - Phil Kessel 2016 1st NOT DEADLINE - Danniel Winnik 2016 2nd NOT DEADLINE - Ryan Reaves 2017 2nd NOT DEADLINE NOT ON CUP - Ron Hainsey 2017 2nd Capitals 2018 - Lars Eller 2017 2nd NOT DEADLINE - Kevin Shattenkirk 2017 1st NOT ON CUP - Lars Eller 2018 2nd NOT DEADLINE So that's 25 separate trades (by my count) involving first and second rounders in those years around cup runs. Of those 25: - 13 were for players at the deadline that were on the Cup champion team - 4 were players at the deadline that did NOT end up on the Cup winning team - 2 not at the deadline or on the Cup roster - 5 were deals not at the deadline but still on the Cup winner - 1 was a coach trade (Randy Carlyle) This might have been a useless exercise for my own health but draw your own conclusions here. Very interesting. I still believe the hurdle to the Sabres come playoff time, is that Toronto team. How to keep pace with them scoring wise, because they are going to pot some pucks. Another finisher/sniper with speed, drive and chemistry for a true contributing force would be ideal. I just don't want to give up the assets necessary to bring one in personally lol. Quote
MattPie Posted November 26, 2018 Report Posted November 26, 2018 Some math (since that's what I'm all about these days): After the last loss before the streak started, the Sabres were playing at an 87.5 point pace, or 1.125 PPG. Starting from today at 34 points, if the Sabres returned to that same pace for the remaining 58 games, they'll end up with 95.8 points, and be very likely to snag a wildcard spot. Without looking, the only time 96 points has missed the playoffs was last year (Florida), and that was fed by the rest of the East being terrible (the next best team had 83 points). I think it's reasonable to expect playoffs this year, barring a big correction skid. It'll be 6 games until the 94-point-pace hits 34 points at game #30, so they can play 6 games under 94 points for the rest of the season and be in OK shape. Quote
dudacek Posted November 26, 2018 Report Posted November 26, 2018 While I appreciate the research, those trade rental stats are more or less meaningless. For every team that loaded up and won, there are 6 or 8 others that loaded up and lost. Pretty much every contender loads up so the results on either side are moot. Quote
PerreaultForever Posted November 28, 2018 Report Posted November 28, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 7:35 AM, dudacek said: While I appreciate the research, those trade rental stats are more or less meaningless. For every team that loaded up and won, there are 6 or 8 others that loaded up and lost. Pretty much every contender loads up so the results on either side are moot. Exactly. Look at Boston last year with Rick Nash. Rangers made out like bandits. Many examples like that. Look, I'm just saying in no way do i give up any 1st round picks for rentals and I would be really reluctant to give up 2nd rounders. After that don't really care. Personally, I think team chemistry is more important though and I say go with what got you there and go with the kids. Quote
Hoss Posted December 1, 2018 Report Posted December 1, 2018 Let’s revisit this. How does everyone feel? The last two games have been ugly yet somehow both were one-goal games with a point in one of them. Jack still isn’t scoring and his flubs with the puck have become a staple of his game, yet he’s still dominant on the puck and racking up assists. Does he need to start scoring to prevent a slide? I say yes. Five goals is pitiful for a $10M man. Reinhart seems to be picking up his game. Three goals in two games. To me, there’s still a chance we’re not a “good team.” Throughout the streak there were some unbelievable moments and some moments where the team seemed ready to fall apart. They didn’t. But now the streak is over and they’ve been absolutely dominated in two straight. But the scoresheet is what matters and they still only lost both by one... This is a very hard team to understand. Quote
Taro T Posted December 1, 2018 Report Posted December 1, 2018 28 minutes ago, Hoss said: Let’s revisit this. How does everyone feel? The last two games have been ugly yet somehow both were one-goal games with a point in one of them. Jack still isn’t scoring and his flubs with the puck have become a staple of his game, yet he’s still dominant on the puck and racking up assists. Does he need to start scoring to prevent a slide? I say yes. Five goals is pitiful for a $10M man. Reinhart seems to be picking up his game. Three goals in two games. To me, there’s still a chance we’re not a “good team.” Throughout the streak there were some unbelievable moments and some moments where the team seemed ready to fall apart. They didn’t. But now the streak is over and they’ve been absolutely dominated in two straight. But the scoresheet is what matters and they still only lost both by one... This is a very hard team to understand. Nothing hard to understand at all. They are a playoff bubble team that has done a good job of avoiding dumb penalties for the most part (though definitely not tonight) & has had very good goaltending, good pk (though not the last 3 games), & probably more than their fair share of puck luck. If they can pick up a point in these next 3 games, (& they always beat TO in Buffalo), I fully expect them to make the playoffs if Eichel, Skinner, Hutton, & 2 or fewer D don't miss significant time. They don't have a #1 D man & arguably not even a #2, but Ristolainen, McCabe, & Bogosian are all good 3's; Dahlin has typically played like a 4; & Scandella has historically been a 3/4. Throw in Beaulieu, Nelson, & Pilut all looking like reasonable/good 3rd pairing guys & they have a real NHL D. They are back to NHL quality goaltending which has been missing since Miller became a Blue. The 1st lineis getting close to 2 goals per game. When they put them together, 28-22-10 is one of the best shutdown lines in the league. Mittelstadt & his line are a 3 playing a 2 role (though they'll likely be an OK 2 next year). The 3rd line isn't a good 3rd line, but they are NHLers. And, yes it would be nice if Eichel was scoring more, but his 2 linemates are both getting goals off his efforts. And I'd expect he'll score morein the 2nd 1/2 of the year for 2 reasons: 1. he always picks up the goal pace mid-December, & 2. he'll eventually get used to the shorter stick. This team should be better (playwise, they can't be better pointwise) on the backstretch. This season has been fun. Next season, they will be real. Quote
dudacek Posted December 1, 2018 Report Posted December 1, 2018 It’s a good team playing a fun brand of hockey that might make the playoffs and can become a contender if Thompson, Dahlin and Mittlestadt fulfill their potential. Quote
Hoss Posted December 3, 2018 Report Posted December 3, 2018 Vegas’ expectations have certainly changed Quote
Sabres Fan in NS Posted December 3, 2018 Report Posted December 3, 2018 The Leaves at 4/1? No. Just, no. Quote
WildCard Posted December 6, 2018 Report Posted December 6, 2018 Harrington cherry picking stats again Quote
Sabres Fan in NS Posted December 6, 2018 Report Posted December 6, 2018 I think we should have a rule, no offense WildGuy, no posting nonsense from Harrington, or anyone else in the media. The key is media. That way all of us can continue posting our nonsense. 1 Quote
North Buffalo Posted December 6, 2018 Report Posted December 6, 2018 Sabres are still a couple of scorers another puck mover and healthy D away from being top tier... but I think developing guys like Mitts and Thompson as well as Asplund and Olloffson and 3rd liner CJ Smith are gonna get them there. If Nyls comes thru next year should be it. This year is about learning about playoff hockey. Last 3 games were really good learning experiences with teams not taking Sabres lightly and Sabres learning they need just a little more to take next step. Hope Pilut keeps showing well, really think he adds speed to the back end. Quote
Kruppstahl Posted December 6, 2018 Report Posted December 6, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 9:09 AM, MattPie said: Some math (since that's what I'm all about these days): After the last loss before the streak started, the Sabres were playing at an 87.5 point pace, or 1.125 PPG. Starting from today at 34 points, if the Sabres returned to that same pace for the remaining 58 games, they'll end up with 95.8 points, and be very likely to snag a wildcard spot. Without looking, the only time 96 points has missed the playoffs was last year (Florida), and that was fed by the rest of the East being terrible (the next best team had 83 points). I think it's reasonable to expect playoffs this year, barring a big correction skid. It'll be 6 games until the 94-point-pace hits 34 points at game #30, so they can play 6 games under 94 points for the rest of the season and be in OK shape. If one digs into the math/stats/data on this, you'll see that it is highly likely we will make the playoffs this year. Or to put it another way, it would be somewhat surprising for us not to. It's gonna happen! Quote
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