Pilut recalled from ROC

[TheAud]

I'm sold on Pilot. 

 

[nfreeman]

A couple of nights ago I was thinking that Pilut is the runner-up for Sabres rookie of the year, behind Dahlin and ahead of Mitts and Tommer.

Then I started thinking that that wasn't really fair to Mitts, who has had to carry perhaps a bigger burden than was fair to expect him to carry, and certainly bigger than Pilut's burden.

Still:  Pilut has pretty seamlessly stepped into a pretty significant role, is playing a top-4 role and top-4 minutes on a decent-to-good NHL team, has played the role of Risto's partner pretty well and generally looks like he belongs.  At this point, he's contributing more than Mitts.

Thoughts?

[Marions Piazza]

2 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

A couple of nights ago I was thinking that Pilut is the runner-up for Sabres rookie of the year, behind Dahlin and ahead of Mitts and Tommer.

Then I started thinking that that wasn't really fair to Mitts, who has had to carry perhaps a bigger burden than was fair to expect him to carry, and certainly bigger than Pilut's burden.

Still:  Pilut has pretty seamlessly stepped into a pretty significant role, is playing a top-4 role and top-4 minutes on a decent-to-good NHL team, has played the role of Risto's partner pretty well and generally looks like he belongs.  At this point, he's contributing more than Mitts.

Thoughts?

Mitts was definitely thrown into a tough situation. I know he scored last night, but, overall his offense hasn't been there as much as we'd like, but on the other hand, i dont think he's been a liability defensively either. Learning some two way hockey right off the bat, the offense will come. I think he breaks 15 goals this year, maybe pushes 20

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, nfreeman said:

A couple of nights ago I was thinking that Pilut is the runner-up for Sabres rookie of the year, behind Dahlin and ahead of Mitts and Tommer.

Then I started thinking that that wasn't really fair to Mitts, who has had to carry perhaps a bigger burden than was fair to expect him to carry, and certainly bigger than Pilut's burden.

Still:  Pilut has pretty seamlessly stepped into a pretty significant role, is playing a top-4 role and top-4 minutes on a decent-to-good NHL team, has played the role of Risto's partner pretty well and generally looks like he belongs.  At this point, he's contributing more than Mitts.

Thoughts?

He’s also 22 and an experienced pro.  Mitts is 20 and playing his 1st pro season in the NHL as a 2nd line center.  It’s kind of an apples to oranges comparison.  What I will say, is that I’m not surprised by Pilut’s performance.  He was the top D in the SHL last season, a league which included Dahlin.  Based on everything I read about him in the off-season after Jbot signed him, he seemed a perfect fit for today’s NHL.  Fast, high IQ, skilled with the puck, good passer, but just a little small.  He works well here because we are tall and physical for a today’s NHL but fortunately all our D skate pretty well.  Baloo is 6’2 200, Bogo, 6’3 225, Risto, 6’4 215, Scandella 6’3 210, McCabe 6’1 206, Dahlin 6’3 190, Nelson 6’1 185.  We wouldn’t want a whole D group of Piluts but one or two really works for us,

[dudacek]

Too soon to say on @nfreeman‘s question but over the small sample size Pilut has been a better 4/5 D than Casey a 2/3 C. Casey remains the better prospect long-term.

I have been surprisingly content with the play of Beaulieu and Nelson this year in the number 6 role. They are both plus players scoring at 20-point paces.

And I would still send Pilut down for asset management reasons: I doubt the other two would clear waivers; I like what Pilut would do for Rochester and the development of the group down there; and I want those extra blueline bodies for a playoff run. 

But Pilut does look better than each of them over his small sample size and might be a long-term  NHLer. He is giving us options.

Does Scandella/McCabe become the third pair down the stretch?

Can we now afford to package one of these guys and a pick for a roster upgrade?

McCabe and a first for Schenn? Plus a prospect for Parayko?

What will be Botterill’s mindset?

[Samson's Flow]

24 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

A couple of nights ago I was thinking that Pilut is the runner-up for Sabres rookie of the year, behind Dahlin and ahead of Mitts and Tommer.

Then I started thinking that that wasn't really fair to Mitts, who has had to carry perhaps a bigger burden than was fair to expect him to carry, and certainly bigger than Pilut's burden.

Still:  Pilut has pretty seamlessly stepped into a pretty significant role, is playing a top-4 role and top-4 minutes on a decent-to-good NHL team, has played the role of Risto's partner pretty well and generally looks like he belongs.  At this point, he's contributing more than Mitts.

Thoughts?

I expected Pilut to play well and eventually make the team, but I was not expecting the bolded to occur with such certainty in only a few games. Pilut has leapfrogged the 3rd pairing entirely and is now consistently playing in the top 4 and compliments Risto's excellent play very well. Bogo and Dahlin's pairing has been a positive surprise, and Risto - Pilut has been equally surprising and impressive. 

It's going to make it tough (in a good way) when we have to figure out who of McCabe, Scandella, Beaulieu, etc. makes the final pairing and how the depth shuffles out. But right now the top four are the guys noted above.

[pi2000]

49 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Too soon to say on @nfreeman‘s question but over the small sample size Pilut has been a better 4/5 D than Casey a 2/3 C. Casey remains the better prospect long-term.

I have been surprisingly content with the play of Beaulieu and Nelson this year in the number 6 role. They are both plus players scoring at 20-point paces.

And I would still send Pilut down for asset management reasons: I doubt the other two would clear waivers; I like what Pilut would do for Rochester and the development of the group down there; and I want those extra blueline bodies for a playoff run. 

But Pilut does look better than each of them over his small sample size and might be a long-term  NHLer. He is giving us options.

Does Scandella/McCabe become the third pair down the stretch?

Can we now afford to package one of these guys and a pick for a roster upgrade?

McCabe and a first for Schenn? Plus a prospect for Parayko?

What will be Botterill’s mindset?

Don't trade anybody.... continue to develop all of them until push comes to shove.     100% Pilut goes down to Roch when McCabe and Scandella are healthy.        

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Too soon to say on @nfreeman‘s question but over the small sample size Pilut has been a better 4/5 D than Casey a 2/3 C. Casey remains the better prospect long-term.

I have been surprisingly content with the play of Beaulieu and Nelson this year in the number 6 role. They are both plus players scoring at 20-point paces.

And I would still send Pilut down for asset management reasons: I doubt the other two would clear waivers; I like what Pilut would do for Rochester and the development of the group down there; and I want those extra blueline bodies for a playoff run. 

But Pilut does look better than each of them over his small sample size and might be a long-term  NHLer. He is giving us options.

Does Scandella/McCabe become the third pair down the stretch?

Can we now afford to package one of these guys and a pick for a roster upgrade?

McCabe and a first for Schenn? Plus a prospect for Parayko?

What will be Botterill’s mindset?

How do you send one of your top 4 D back to the minors.  Having the Amerks do well is important, but keeping the Sabres in the top 3 in the Atlantic is vastly more important.  If Pilut can help us achieve that goal, he has to stay.  

I’d leave Hunwick in Rochester before sending Pilut back.  I’d also trade Baloo before sending Pilut back.  Waive Hunwick and you save $1 mill in cap for the season.  Trading Baloo saves 2.4 mill. I’d wager that Jbot could get a 3rd back for Baloo right now in trade.  So many teams are looking for D and right now we have 9 NHL D when healthy.  

That said none of this is necessary yet and may not be.  Once Hunwick returns, he steps in for Tennyson.  

That puts us at

Pilut Risto

Dahlin Bogo

Baloo Hunwick

with McCabe (week to week), Nelson (week to week) and Scandella (day to day).  Once Scandella comes back, Hunwick rides the pine.  PH updated and said McCabe isn’t even skating yet.  It’s likely another 3-4 weeks until he returns. By that time, no way Pilut goes back to Rochester.  Eventually and Assuming everyone gets and stays healthy, you trade Baloo, because he has the most current market trade value and the biggest cap hit of the “expendable” guys on the team. 

All that said, if we re-sign McCabe this off-season, I’m trading Scandella.  I’m also trading Baloo’s rights away.  

Edited December 14, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

I don’t think Pilut is as good (yet) as Scandella and McCabe and he is not significantly better than the way Beaulieu is playing this year.

If the Sabres and Beaulieu struggle after he gets sent down call him back up. That’s assuming we stay healthy and we can’t call him back up regardless.

We’re what, 25-30 games from the trade deadline, when the roster limits vanish and we can call him back up for the stretch run without waiving anybody?

Isn’t our record without Pilut playing better than our record with him? Playing Beaulieu over him for those games isn’t going to be the difference between making or missing the playoffs.

You are going to be happy we still have Beaulieu when Bogo and McCabe go down in the playoffs or the stretch run. Remember the lesson Tim Murray never learned: you can never have enough defencemen ?

Edited December 14, 2018 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I don’t think Pilut is as good (yet) as Scandella and McCabe and he is not significantly better than the way Beaulieu is playing this year.

If the Sabres and Beaulieu struggle after he gets sent down call him back up. That’s assuming we stay healthy and we can’t call him back up regardless.

We’re what, 25-30 games from the trade deadline, when the roster limits vanish and we can call him back up for the stretch run without waiving anybody?

Isn’t our record without Pilut playing better than our record with him? Playing Beaulieu over him for those games isn’t going to be the difference between making or missing the playoffs.

You are going to be happy we still have Beaulieu when Bogo and McCabe go down in the playoffs or the stretch run. Remember the lesson Tim Murray never learned: you can never have enough defencemen ?

Not really a fair comment.  Pilut is here because of injuries to Scandella and McCabe.  Pilut is outplaying Baloo.  PH has him playing 20+ minutes a night in all situations vs 15 for Baloo.  You know how much I like depth on the backend, but I’m willing to send Baloo packing to save cap and let Pilut play.  

[nfreeman]

I think the Sabres are much more likely to send Hunwick down and healthy-scratch Beaulieu and Nelson than they are to trade Beaulieu to free up roster space.

But I think @dudacek is probably right that Pilut will get sent down for the short (and possibly nonexistent depending on injuries) period between the time that everyone is healthy and the no-roster-limits date.

Unless, of course, Pilut is head and shoulders above Beaulieu and Nelson at that point -- which could very likely be the case.

 

[Doohicksie]

28 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I’d leave Hunwick in Rochester before sending Pilut back.  I’d also trade Baloo before sending Pilut back.

Those are possibilities but I kind of feel that JBot will keep those guys around for this season.  Still, that's not the worst problem to have.  I think Pilut will understand that the only thing that sends him down will be his contract situation and that it won't be an issue after this year.  I bet he plays 40-50 games this year, even if JBot doesn't move any D out.  Injuries happen.  After this season he will have solidly earned his spot on the roster.

5 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Unless, of course, Pilut is head and shoulders above Beaulieu and Nelson at that point -- which could very likely be the case.

I think it already may be the case.

[Doohicksie]

23 minutes ago, dudacek said:

you can never have enough defencemen

This.

[dudacek]

12 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Not really a fair comment.  Pilut is here because of injuries to Scandella and McCabe.  Pilut is outplaying Baloo.  PH has him playing 20+ minutes a night in all situations vs 15 for Baloo.  You know how much I like depth on the backend, but I’m willing to send Baloo packing to save cap and let Pilut play.  

Probably doesn’t affect your point, but since his call-up Pilut has averaged 18 minutes a game, Beaulieu 16.

Pilut doesn't PK and gets spot time on the PP. Opposite for Beaulieu.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

14 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Unless, of course, Pilut is head and shoulders above Beaulieu and Nelson at that point -- which could very likely be the case.

Over the last 5 games; Baloo has average 15:48 of ice time, while Pilut has average 19:12.  Seems to me PH already trusts Pilut more.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Everyone needs to trust the pilot, no?

[Cheektorado]

I just want to thank everyone who contributed to the D player situation that will be facing JBOT.

I feel much better knowing JBOT has a lot of good options going forward.

A question if anyone wants to answer.....is there a strong scenario where Baloo gets resigned next year?

The only way I see that is if Scandella is moved assuming of course McCabe is re-signed.

[nfreeman]

I will predict that Beaulieu gets re-signed.  He's developing into a reasonably good 3rd-pairing guy, which is a useful NHL player, and he won't cost much to keep. 

[Samson's Flow]

5 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I will predict that Beaulieu gets re-signed.  He's developing into a reasonably good 3rd-pairing guy, which is a useful NHL player, and he won't cost much to keep. 

I will agree with that, and it is mostly because Beaulieu is not going to command a ton and has demonstrated that he can play the type of game that Housley wants. I think Scandella is the one that should be worried, as he is the most expensive and has struggled a bit this year while others have blossomed.

[nfreeman]

Scandy is under contract though. 

[dudacek]

I think if things fall the way Jbot has it drawn up, Scandella is gone

I think Pilut, Guhle and Borgen will replace Beaulieu, Scandella and Hunwick over the next two years and McCabe gets a long-term deal.

I think the Sabres will try to extend Bogosian for less money this summer, then switch over to Scandella if Bogo isn’t amenable.

[sabills]

I'm not ready to give up on Scandella yet. He's been fairly consistent over his career, and there was a decent argument to be made that he was our best D-man last year. Hopefully he shows back up after this recovery.

[Samson's Flow]

6 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Scandy is under contract though. 

I was inferring as a trade piece in a hockey trade to get us a 2C in the offseason. Or find another Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson type team desperate for defense ?

[Brawndo]

I think Pilut gets sent down once all the D Men are healthy.  Both Edmonton and Montreal are looking for veteran D Men and I doubt Nelson, Beaulieu or Hunwick clear waivers for this reason. 

With the trade freeze coming on December 19th, Botterill will probably sit tight and see what the trade market looks like after the first of the year. Or losing McCabe and Scandella to Injury for extended period of time this season causes him to keep everyone.

[dudacek]

Scandella leaving will simply be cap decision. McCabe will get his money to be the 3/4 and a cheaper guy will be the 4/5