Are We Now Buyers At the Trade Deadline?

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, nucci said:

but don't we want more picks and cap space......who wants to win now? I feel like I'm on the Bills board

We don't have the cap space to add Panarim without another move to clear space. 

[dudacek]

42 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

This is not 1999. There is a hard cap and these deals simply do not happen anymore without giving up multiple prospects and/or picks. 

Barnes/Barnaby deals happened just last week: Spooner for Strome, Hagelin for Pearson

[dudacek]

12 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

But Panarin?!?!  Who has 15 pts in 17 career playoff games?!?!

If the Sabres are solidly in the playoffs and probably not playing Tampa in the first round, and if they can get Panarin for a #1 not in the top 20?

I want him.  

We have to live.  

A first pick for the 6 points in our six-game loss to Columbus? Because there is no way we are keeping Panarin.

[nucci]

11 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

We don't have the cap space to add Panarim without another move to clear space. 

Mostly being sarcastic to some posters who say we are not on win now mode....

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Barnes/Barnaby deals happened just last week: Spooner for Strome, Hagelin for Pearson

Hey I am all for pulling a Sobotka for Anyone deal. 

[nfreeman]

19 minutes ago, dudacek said:

A first pick for the 6 points in our six-game loss to Columbus? Because there is no way we are keeping Panarin. 

I agree there is no way he re-signs with the Sabres.  He is going to LA, NYC or Vegas.

But still:  there are a lot of potential playoff matchups that aren't impossible.  And CBJ is one of them, as they will likely be pretty demoralized after they unload Panarin and Bobrovsky at the deadline. 

Imagine how freaking psyched you would be on the eve of the playoffs if they added Panarin and a solid defenseman, earned the #3 slot in their division and faced Toronto in the first round.  Eichel vs Matthews for generational bragging rights, and now Eichel has on his side Skinner, Panarin, Dahlin and much better goaltending than the Leafs.

Now imagine how psyched you would be on the eve of the 2nd round after we send those hosers packing.

I don't think I would be able to sleep at night.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Panarin for the playoffs isn’t a move Jbot makes. He makes moves to better the team long-term.  Skinner while also a UFA has a very reasonable chance of staying.  Panarin has made it clear he wants the bright lights and big city.  

 

[LTS]

Can't go back and quote everyone in the thread... but here are my thoughts:

When we begin debating the value of draft picks I understand the desire to point out the statistical hit rate. The problem is that you have to also account for the depth of talent in a particular draft year.  This is why it's critical for the scouting department to look a few years out and try and project.  A 2nd this year might be more valuable than a 2nd next year if the talent pool is deemed to not be that deep. If we just keep arguing over the generic "it's bad to move this pick or this pick isn't worth getting" we'll never get anywhere without also discussing the players available with those picks.

I don't see a player like Panarin being available unless CBJ wants to drop themselves from the playoff race.  They would have to essentially kiss the playoffs goodbye if they wanted to move him. They are likely stuck keeping him for the season (unless they begin to drop in the standings of course).

I don't think Botterill will be looking to upset the trajectory of the franchise this year. 

[bob_sauve28]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

But Panarin?!?!  Who has 15 pts in 17 career playoff games?!?!

If the Sabres are solidly in the playoffs and probably not playing Tampa in the first round, and if they can get Panarin for a #1 not in the top 20?

I want him.  

We have to live.  

F Ya!!! What if we are playing the Bruins??!! No way I want to lose to them! 

 

We won't die if you lose one first round pick, as long as we get a decent player in return. 

[Huckleberry]

9 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

F Ya!!! What if we are playing the Bruins??!! No way I want to lose to them! 

 

We won't die if you lose one first round pick, as long as we get a decent player in return. 

Yeah that is why I was ok with trading a 1st round for Lehner, but I've come back from those kind of deals.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I’m ok with trading 2nd and 3rds and everything else except 1st rd picks.  We need a constant flow of talent and that comes from the 1st rd. 12 of our 23 players are former 1st rd picks.  We have as many college UFAs as 2nd rd picks on the roster.  

[bob_sauve28]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I’m ok with trading 2nd and 3rds and everything else except 1st rd picks.  We need a constant flow of talent and that comes from the 1st rd. 12 of our 23 players are former 1st rd picks.  We have as many college UFAs as 2nd rd picks on the roster.  

Are there any untouchables in Rochester right now? Or in the farm system elsewhere?

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Are there any untouchables in Rochester right now? Or in the farm system elsewhere?

Yes.  Pilut and UPL.   I doubt Jbot wants to move Nylander.  I think they are waiting for him to mature some more before sticking him with Jack.  That said his brother’s contract issues may sour the NHL on the entire family.

It also be interesting to hear what management thinks of Oskari.

Edited November 19, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Crusader1969]

14 hours ago, Weave said:

 

I didn't pull that number out of my ass.  The statistics of NHL success for picks has been well researched, and well discussed here.  The reality is, by the middle of the 1st round, the liklihood of spending 2 seasons in the NHL is down to a coin toss, and by the second and third rounds its half of that.

Read me;  article discussing liklihood of success rates in different rounds of the NHL draft

this article only uses data up to 2006.  The NHL and the draft has changed a lot since then.

Look at drafts from 2012 on and its no longer a coin flip. NHL drafting scouting has improved and its now a young player league.

from 2012 - 15 of the picks 11-30 first have have played at least 164 games.   

of the 6 that haven't played 2 seasons

1) Mark Jandkowski is an important part of the Flames D. had 25 points last year in his rookie season
2) Malcom Subban - back up goalie in NHL
3)Jordan Schmaltz - NHL St.Louis Blues
4)Henrik Samuelsson - AHL player
5)Steffan Matteau - AHL player 

Looks like 18 of the 20 will become a draft succes. 90%

2012 isn't even thought of as a good draft.

KEEP THE 3 PICKS unless you get young player with Term back!!!

 

 

[LGR4GM]

This draft is considered deep. Deeper than last years for sure. 

Edited November 19, 2018 by LGR4GM

[Crusader1969]

though my arm could be twisted for a first (San Jose's) for an elite player like Panarin. For a "Run of the Mill" rental player - no thanks.

I

 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

One other note.  According to Capfriendly we have only 1.2 mill of projected cap space.  That is not enough to add a Panarin without send a salary out the other way. That said we have some LTIR room because of Hunwick once the capspace runs out,.

[Hoss]

18 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

This draft is considered deep. Deeper than last years for sure. 

Reinhart’s draft was considered weak top to bottom.

It produced:

Aaron Ekblad

Samson Reinhart

Leon Draisaitl

Jake Virtanen

William Nylander

Nikolaj Ehlers

Kevin Fiala

Dylan Larkin

Alex Tuch

Nick Schmaltz

Kasperi Kapanen

David Pastrnak

Brandon Montour

Christian Dvorak

Brayden Point

Viktor Arvidsson

That’s just a list of guys who have had an impact or are off to great starts this year. It’s worth noting it’s deep (that’s all your doing, so this isn’t a post against you really) but I always feel like those statements are kinda useless. Especially this far out. The draft truly is a wildcard nobody will ever conquer with any sort of confidence.

[Wyldnwoody44]

7 hours ago, nucci said:

Mostly being sarcastic to some posters who say we are not on win now mode....

It's not a buffalo attitude, it's an attitude of being a realistic fan. You don't go from worst to first (maybe once in a blue moon) but it's just not expected, if we win the cup, then F yeah, and I would love the team to be in win now mode, Every. Single. Day. They. Exist, so for the purpose of the team, and the fans, yes its win now..... But for the purpose of real life, trading away what could be significant depth for a piece that may or may not help this team, in a year where they aren't expecting to win the cup, would be silly. 

 

Let's say we surprise everyone and win a round this year, awesome, we still have the AHL guys, a re-signed Skinner (hopefully) more mature Jack, Dahlin etc, and now we have all the picks to make moves in the off-season for more established talent or to restock for the guys coming up from the A. And next year, we have a better shot and more realistic shot of gunning for the cup.... And keeping a sustained level of high play. 

 

This is literally the first time in my Buffalo fan hood life, that I am comfortable with saying that 1 year is OK to wait, just 1 season, because the payoff in my honest opinion will be better and more sustained. 

[nucci]

1 hour ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

It's not a buffalo attitude, it's an attitude of being a realistic fan. You don't go from worst to first (maybe once in a blue moon) but it's just not expected, if we win the cup, then F yeah, and I would love the team to be in win now mode, Every. Single. Day. They. Exist, so for the purpose of the team, and the fans, yes its win now..... But for the purpose of real life, trading away what could be significant depth for a piece that may or may not help this team, in a year where they aren't expecting to win the cup, would be silly. 

 

Let's say we surprise everyone and win a round this year, awesome, we still have the AHL guys, a re-signed Skinner (hopefully) more mature Jack, Dahlin etc, and now we have all the picks to make moves in the off-season for more established talent or to restock for the guys coming up from the A. And next year, we have a better shot and more realistic shot of gunning for the cup.... And keeping a sustained level of high play. 

 

This is literally the first time in my Buffalo fan hood life, that I am comfortable with saying that 1 year is OK to wait, just 1 season, because the payoff in my honest opinion will be better and more sustained. 

I'm not saying win at all costs this year but you try and improve the team if possible....unlike the last few years when the goal was to be the worst.

[Kruppstahl]

If things are still going well at the deadline, it's still way too early to compromise the long view for the short term.

If we can make a move or 2 that doesn't compromise our long term position but improves the team this year, great!