Are We Now Buyers At the Trade Deadline?

[Huckleberry]

17 minutes ago, Weave said:

I just went back and looked at Darcy's deadline trade history.  There is a handful of 2nd and 3rd round picks that he's moved to upgrade the team for the playoffs.  Of those picks, only Clayton Stoner ever became anything.  Darcy's history was not doing enough at the deadline, not giving away the farm.

pretty crucial for the long run though.   We haven't won a cup yet so don't want to turn into the penguins or blackhawks just yet ?

[Radar]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

A couple of things.

Any mid to late round pick if he makes the NHL at all will most likely be a AAAA player or a 4th line player.  Look to late 1 rd players for your middle six.  Guys like Girgensons, Berglund, Thompson are all middle to late 1st rd picks. 

Top 6 forwards and top pairing D usually come from top 10 and most likely top 5 picks. 

 

Agree. If you can deal to move up do it. Just leery of giving up too much for a guy who may be on his way down when realistically I don't see us as a cup contender. I'm happy with our progress to date and want to continue with building the franchise and it's whole organization. Trading our first rounders may make sense if it's benefiting our future years but not for this year only. If it's an established 25-26yr old ok.

[Hoss]

@nfreeman I would give one up for a short-term rental such as Mark Stone or Artemi Panarin if we’re firmly a playoff team (several games over the 9th place team) but I don’t see either scenario presenting itself to us.

[nfreeman]

Just now, Hoss said:

@nfreeman I would give one up for a short-term rental such as Mark Stone or Artemi Panarin if we’re firmly a playoff team (several games over the 9th place team) but I don’t see either scenario presenting itself to us.

Ooooooooooooohhhhh.  I would too for Panarin in that scenario.  To get to drive the Ferrari during the return to the playoffs?  With Eichel, Dahlin and good goaltending?  Yes indeed.

[PalmTreeMafia]

31 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

This is a good post and I largely agree, but I would like to know specifically whether you would give up a #1 for a pure short-term rental?

 

This is a tough question to answer because the devil is in the details. Where are we in the division standings in February? Where are the Sharks and the Blues? What caliber of a rental player are we talking about? What position does he play?

All I can tell you is that I seem to value winning in the present much more than the average Buffalo sports fan on the internet these days.

[Hoss]

1 minute ago, FuhrUrsinne said:

 

This is a tough question to answer because the devil is in the details. Where are we in the division standings in February? Where are the Sharks and the Blues? What caliber of a rental player are we talking about? What position does he play?

All I can tell you is that I seem to value winning in the present much more than the average Buffalo sports fan on the internet these days.

Set the hypotheticals yourself. What scenario would it take for you to do it? What scenario would it take for you to not do it?

[PalmTreeMafia]

7 minutes ago, Hoss said:

Set the hypotheticals yourself. What scenario would it take for you to do it? What scenario would it take for you to not do it?

 

Ok, well I'll give it a shot. I expect the Sabres to be a borderline playoff team in February. I expect San Jose's 1st to be in the low 20's and the St. Louis pick to be deferred to next year because it will be top 10. So in this scenario, I would be willing to trade either our 2019 first (lottery-protected) or San Jose's 2019 first for a top-line RW rental that could help make the Skinner-Eichel line dominant. I wouldn't feel comfortable offering much more than one first, nor would I be comfortable offering up any 2020 first rounders unless they were lottery-protected.

[Brawndo]

Something else to remember, The Sabres do not have a 2019 2nd, their 3rd and 4th cannot be moved until the conditions of the Sheary Trade are met or not met. 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

I just went back and looked at Darcy's deadline trade history.  There is a handful of 2nd and 3rd round picks that he's moved to upgrade the team for the playoffs.  Of those picks, only Clayton Stoner ever became anything.  Darcy's history was not doing enough at the deadline, not giving away the farm.

So then he actually did both. You don't only stock the farm with 1st rd picks. Those 2nd and 3rds are just as valuable at re-stocking. The fact that he brought in basically junk for those picks is "not doing enough".

[Weave]

3 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

So then he actually did both. You don't only stock the farm with 1st rd picks. Those 2nd and 3rds are just as valuable at re-stocking. The fact that he brought in basically junk for those picks is "not doing enough".

No, they aren't.  Only 15-20% of them ever make an NHL team.  Each team only gets a couple of them every decade that have NHL careers. 

 

Bringing in junk was the problem.  Expending 2nd and 3rd round picks to bolster the team wasn't.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

A couple of things.

Any mid to late round pick if he makes the NHL at all will most likely be a AAAA player or a 4th line player.  Look to late 1 rd players for your middle six.  Guys like Girgensons, Berglund, Thompson are all middle to late 1st rd picks. 

Top 6 forwards and top pairing D usually come from top 10 and most likely top 5 picks. 

Also how many of these deadline deals exactly actually help teams?

Some do but only for short term and seems that, like me, you want long term or are willing to play it out as is.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

10 minutes ago, Weave said:

No, they aren't.  Only 15-20% of them ever make an NHL team.  Each team only gets a couple of them every decade that have NHL careers. 

 

Bringing in junk was the problem.  Expending 2nd and 3rd round picks to bolster the team wasn't.

So count Guhle out. And Asplund, Davidsson, Samuelson, Laaksonen...forget them ever making the NHL. OOOOHHH wait, isn't everybody waiting for Olafsson  to come up (7th rd). Didn't  McNabb go outside the 1st rd (still playing in Vegas?). Bailey? C.J. Compher? Jake McCabe? Ukka Pekka Lukkonen? Foligno? Ullmark? Borgen? All useless picks with no value, and that's just a quick off the cuff list of non-1st rd'ers and just this team and recently, not historically. I can't forget Pommers. I'm sure there are more and don't say they are outliars cuz that's a good size list for starters.

 

[bob_sauve28]

21 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

So count Guhle out. And Asplund, Davidsson, Samuelson, Laaksonen...forget them ever making the NHL. OOOOHHH wait, isn't everybody waiting for Olafsson  to come up (7th rd). Didn't  McNabb go outside the 1st rd (still playing in Vegas?). Bailey? C.J. Compher? Jake McCabe? Ukka Pekka Lukkonen? Foligno? Ullmark? Borgen? All useless picks with no value, and that's just a quick off the cuff list of non-1st rd'ers and just this team and recently, not historically. I can't forget Pommers. I'm sure there are more and don't say they are outliars cuz that's a good size list for starters.

 

Pominville was put on waivers before he really began his career here. No one even claimed him and we got him back. 

[SabresFanInRochester]

7 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Pominville was put on waivers before he really began his career here. No one even claimed him and we got him back. 

You're picking one player off a list of 12+ and even then your case is weak. Florida was going to claim Pominville but didn't because they didn't want to tarnish their new relationship with the Sabres, which was when both teams shared the Amerks. Florida saw Pominville and wanted him. Other teams may have dismissed him because he wasn't a glorified 1st rounder. I can only speculate for the other teams. To call non-first rounders is rubbish. That would make both Miller and Hasek garbage, right?

Edited November 19, 2018 by SabresFanInRochester

[Weave]

25 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

So count Guhle out. And Asplund, Davidsson, Samuelson, Laaksonen...forget them ever making the NHL. OOOOHHH wait, isn't everybody waiting for Olafsson  to come up (7th rd). Didn't  McNabb go outside the 1st rd (still playing in Vegas?). Bailey? C.J. Compher? Jake McCabe? Ukka Pekka Lukkonen? Foligno? Ullmark? Borgen? All useless picks with no value, and that's just a quick off the cuff list of non-1st rd'ers and just this team and recently, not historically. I can't forget Pommers. I'm sure there are more and don't say they are outliars cuz that's a good size list for starters.

 

 

I didn't pull that number out of my ass.  The statistics of NHL success for picks has been well researched, and well discussed here.  The reality is, by the middle of the 1st round, the liklihood of spending 2 seasons in the NHL is down to a coin toss, and by the second and third rounds its half of that.

Read me;  article discussing liklihood of success rates in different rounds of the NHL draft

[SABRES 0311]

12 minutes ago, SabresFanInRochester said:

You're picking one player off a list of 12+ and even then your case is weak. Florida was going to claim Pominville but didn't because they didn't want to tarnish their new relationship with the Sabres, which was when both teams shared the Amerks. Florida saw Pominville and wanted him. Other teams may have dismissed him because he wasn't a glorified 1st rounder. I can only speculate for the other teams. To call non-first rounders is rubbish. That would make both Miller and Hasek garbage, right?

They are garbage. LOL J/K

[GASabresIUFAN]

Weave is basically right on this one.  Outside the 1st rd, the odds of a kid playing 100 games in the NHL fall significantly.  Outside the top 10, the odds of finding a major contributor are tiny.  They happen.  After all DR found Miller, Kotalik, and Campbel late, but that is highly unusual.

For example here is our 2nd rd picks post Jason Pominville

2003 Fabry - 0 nhl games

2004 Funk - 9 NHL games

2005 Gogulla - 0 NHL games

2006 Enroth  - 153 NHL games

2006 Weber - 351 NHL games

2007 Brennan - 53 NHL games

2007 Schiestel - 0 NHL games

2008 Adam - 90 NHL games

2012 McCabe - 234 NHL games and counting

2013 Compher - 95 NHL games - traded away but playing in the NHL

2013 Hurley - 0 NHL games

2013 Bailey - 52 NHL games and barely still a prospect

2014 Lemiuex - 18 NHL games

2014 Cornel - 0 NHL games

2014 Karabacek - 0 NHL games

2015 Guhle - 21 NHL games and still a prospect

That 16 picks and 4 NHL players so far: 1 backup goalie (Enroth), 1 bottom pair D (Weber),  1 3rd line forward (Compher) and 1 2nd pair D (McCabe).  Not exactly a record of success.  

PS: Now you know why GM's love trading 2nd rd picks, and why I still hate TM for trading away our 1st rd picks back in 2015.

Edited November 19, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

10 minutes ago, Weave said:

 

I didn't pull that number out of my ass.  The statistics of NHL success for picks has been well researched, and well discussed here.  The reality is, by the middle of the 1st round, the liklihood of spending 2 seasons in the NHL is down to a coin toss, and by the second and third rounds its half of that.

Read me;  article discussing liklihood of success rates in different rounds of the NHL draft

2nd rd and later picks (or any pick) can have value and an impact on you club, they don't have to be an NHL top 6 to do it. What about the ones that are career AHL that are call ups for injuries? they're still valuable picks regardless.

[...]

Seems odd. How does the NHL come by players, then, if only 30 a year are likely to stay in the NHL long term?  There's a potential for 713 active NHL players a year.  Even over a 10 year period as an average career, that only accounts for less than half of active players.  

[Weave]

2 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

2nd rd and later picks (or any pick) can have value and an impact on you club, they don't have to be an NHL top 6 to do it. What about the ones that are career AHL that are call ups for injuries? they're still valuable picks regardless.

I didn't say they were without value.  I said that they aren't likely to have any more than a cup of coffee in the NHL.  And the context of that statement was that I am willing to forego that value in return for a player that can help us in the playoffs.

Assuming that playoffs are in the picture for this year.

[Weave]

2 minutes ago, ... said:

Seems odd. How does the NHL come by players, then, if only 30 a year are likely to stay in the NHL long term?  There's a potential for 713 active NHL players a year.  Even over a 10 year period as an average career, that only accounts for less than half of active players.  

1/3 in the 2nd make it.  1 in 4 in the 3rd make it.  1 in 6-10 make it drafted after that.  Add college FA's.  It adds up.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, ... said:

Seems odd. How does the NHL come by players, then, if only 30 a year are likely to stay in the NHL long term?  There's a potential for 713 active NHL players a year.  Even over a 10 year period as an average career, that only accounts for less than half of active players.  

Here is how the Sabres were built

12 1st rd draft picks (6 by the Sabres) - including 8 players drafted in the top 8.

4 2nd rd picks (2 by the Sabres - McCabe and Pommers)

4 College UFA (Hutton, ERod, Sheary and Nelson)

2 late rd picks (Sobotka 4th rd pick by Boston and Ullmark a 6th rd pick by the Sabres)

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Weave is basically right on this one.  Outside the 1st rd, the odds of a kid playing 100 games in the NHL fall significantly.  Outside the top 10, the odds of finding a major contributor are tiny.  They happen.  After all DR found Miller, Kotalik, and Campbel late, but that is highly unusual.

For example here is our 2nd rd picks post Jason Pominville

2003 Fabry - 0 nhl games

2004 Funk - 9 NHL games

2005 Gogulla - 0 NHL games

2006 Enroth  - 153 NHL games

2006 Weber - 351 NHL games

2007 Brennan - 53 NHL games

2007 Schiestel - 0 NHL games

2008 Adam - 90 NHL games

2012 McCabe - 234 NHL games and counting

2013 Compher - 95 NHL games - traded away but playing in the NHL

2013 Hurley - 0 NHL games

2013 Bailey - 52 NHL games and barely still a prospect

2014 Lemiuex - 18 NHL games

2014 Cornel - 0 NHL games

2014 Karabacek - 0 NHL games

2015 Guhle - 21 NHL games and still a prospect

That 16 picks and 4 NHL players so far: 1 backup goalie (Enroth), 1 bottom pair D (Weber),  1 3rd line forward (Compher) and 1 2nd pair D (McCabe).  Not exactly a record of success.  

Weave also claims 15-20% from his source and if my math is correct today, 4 of 16 is 25% so i guess our record of success is better than we think.

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Weave also claims 15-20% from his source and if my math is correct today, 4 of 16 is 25% so i guess our record of success is better than we think.

The 2nd rd is closer to 30 to 35% of a guy playing 100 games, but 85% of 2nd rd picks are 4th liners or worse even if they get to 100 games.  Those are long odds.  Our record is below average.

Scott Cullen, formerly of TSN and now the Athletic has done excellent research on this subject.

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-values-1.1119528

Our 3rd rd effort is even worse.

Edited November 19, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Weave]

1 minute ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Weave also claims 15-20% from his source and if my math is correct today, 4 of 16 is 25% so i guess our record of success is better than we think.

 

This is frustrating.  The reply was 2nds AND 3rds.  15-20% of seconds and 3rds make it.  Narrow it to just 2nds and it is pretty much 25%.  We were dead on average. (not that it changed my point any)

And again, in context of the convo, do we want to give up a 25% shot at a player to get additional help for a playoff run?  I do.  Assuming the situation warrants it.